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Dr. Totti Könnölä from Impetu Solutions waas invited to give a keynote speech on 'Opening Horizons: What kind of new approaches are available?' in the COST Foresight on Future Demand for ...

Dr. Totti Könnölä from Impetu Solutions waas invited to give a keynote speech on 'Opening Horizons: What kind of new approaches are available?' in the COST Foresight on Future Demand for Forest-based Products and Services: Dissemination Conference on September 13, 2011, in Sekocin Stary (Near Warsaw)/Poland.

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Opening Horizons keynote COST Poland 2011 Opening Horizons keynote COST Poland 2011 Presentation Transcript

  • Opening HorizonsWhat kind of new approaches are available? Dr. Totti Könnölä, Impetu Solutions II Key Note Session, COST Strategic Workshop Foresight on Future Demand for Forest-based Products and Services 13 September 2011, Sekocin Stary/Poland
  • 1. Transformations2. Towards New Foresight Systems3. Towards New Methodologies4. New Approaches in Practice5. Conclusions
  • 1.Transformations2. Towards New Foresight Systems3. Towards New Methodologies4. New Approaches in Practice5. Conclusions
  • • Rarity• Extreme impact • Retrospective predictability
  • Unpredictability vs. Taleb Distribution (Taleb, 2011)Kurtosis risk (long tail) +Skewness risk (not evenly distributed)
  • Pareto Distribution and ‘80/20’ Rule
  • Twitter followers and Pareto distribution
  • RESILIENTSOCIETY?
  • Structure1. Transformations2.Towards New Foresight Systems3. Towards New Methodologies4. New Approaches in Practice5. Conclusions
  • The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011Building FTA capacities for systemic and structuraltransformations: New FTA systems For anticipatory action ina fast-changing world Matthias Weber1, Jennifer Cassingena Harper2, Totti Könnölä3, Vicente Carabias Barceló4 1 AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria; 2 Malta Council for Science and Technology, Malta; 3 Impetu Solutions, Spain 4 Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Spain;
  • FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations Types of Transformation Rapid Transformation Disruptive by design transformation (policy shocks) Reactive Deliberate Ongoing Transformation processes of by design transformation (transition) Gradual (Weber et al., 2011)
  • FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations FTA Disruptive Grand Challenges Recognised Grand Challenges Rationales Addressing issues of high societal importance meeting criteria of relevance and feasibility - to identify the right level of specificity for actions; - to build stakeholder engagement in a common vision for action. Forms Early warning systems, scanning for weak Vision development; signals; Scenario development (alternative Examination of potential impacts evidence-based) Interactions Internal between scientists; Wider participation involving public; Cross-disciplinary between researchers in Multi-disciplinary; breakthrough areas; Global perspective. External – monitoring through expert and open systems. Processes 1. Intelligence Mapping by field, sector, 1. Intelligence Mapping by socio- problem, vulnerability, or application; economic sector(s); 2. Political Decision on a Theme; 2. State of the art analysis of the 3. Funding of the Foresight Process; National Policies and Research 4. Scoping and Design: Defining the study and Capacity; Committee(s) selection; 3. Production of Foresight Report: 5. Production of Foresight Report: Committee Committee Meetings, Information Meetings, Information gathering, Deliberations gathering, Deliberations; and Assessments of probability, impact, and 4. Evaluation of the Foresight Report; risks; 5. Public Consultation to define the 6. Evaluation of the Foresight Report; most pressing societal problem(s); 7. Identification of Disruptive Grand Challenge 6. Identification of Recognised Grand Areas: To lead to further investigation through Challenge Areas. joint research programs. Outcomes Shared Visions; Large-scale, coordinated responses over time; Joint programming.
  • FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations Ideal-type models of FTA
  • FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations Towards New FTA Systems
  • Structure1. Transformations2. Towards New Foresight Systems3.Towards New Methodologies4. New Approaches in Practice5. Conclusions
  • Addressing the future Long-term notions of the good society Desirable futuresProbable futures Possible futuresLikely temporal Unrealized but realisiticdevelopment possibilities of problemof societal problems solutions (IPTS, 2009)
  • Forecasting to predict THE future• The extrapolation of the most probable trend. – Big samples – Time series – Short to medium term• Limited by the availability and quality of the data• Less suitable for addressing issues with little or no historical data.
  • Forecasting & Foresight Forecasting• The extrapolation of the most • Alternative scenarios of future probable trend. developments to support – Big samples decisions – Quantitative and qualitative – Time series – Participatory – Short-term – Long-term• Limited by the availability and • Learning & sense-making, not quality of the data decision-making process• Less suitable for addressing • Credibility gap between those issues with little or no historical taking apart and for those not data.
  • Integration
  • Web 2.0 for Foresight From traditional to connected research Figure 1: Connected research (Schillewaert et al, 2009). From respondents to participants From 1-to-1 learning to mutual learning and co-creation Web 2.0 for Foresight (Haegeman et al, 2011)
  • 1. Transformations2. Towards New Foresight Systems3. Towards New Methodologies4.New Approaches in Practice5. Conclusions
  • The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011Facing the Future: Scanning, Synthesizing and Sense-Making in Horizon Scanning Totti Könnölä1, Ahti Salo2, Cristiano Cagnin3, Vicente Carabias3, and Eeva Vilkkumaa2 1Impetu Solutions, Madrid (Spain) 2Aalto University School of Science and Technology, Espoo (Finland) 3JRC-IPTS, Seville (Spain)
  • Facing the Future Horizon Scanning creative process of collective sense-making by way of
  • Facing the Future Key Questions in Horizon Scanning Activities
  • Facing the Future Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
  • Facing the Future Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
  • Facing the Future Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
  • Facing the Future Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
  • Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
  • Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
  • Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010) Identification of 381 Issues in 6 areas • (i) 73 demography, migration and health issues • (ii) 44 economy, trade and financial flows issues • (iii) 90 environment, energy, climate change and agriculture issues • (iv) 80 research, innovation and (e)-education issues • (v) 52 (e)-governance and (e)-social cohesion issues • (vi) 42 defence and security issues • by analysing in each area 25 forward-looking reports and policy documents, which had been recently published by international organisations or business sector, covered more than one of six areas being analysed, exhibited global scope, and had been developed using a participatory approach Assessment of 381 issues on a seven-point Likert-scale • Relevance to EU policy making • Novelty in comparison with earlier policy deabates • Probability of occurrence by 2025
  • Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010) Analysis of Issues Mean-oriented analysis Rare event oriented analysis Variance-oriented analysis Relevance > Novelty > Inverse probability > Novelty > Novelty > Relevance > Probability (means) Relevance (means) Probability (variance)  100% issues score best independent of the used criteria preferences  50% issues that score well, but are sensitive to criteria preferences
  • Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010) Synthesizing Issues Experts and policy-makers grouped in a workshop the identified issues into cross- cutting challenges and examined their policy implications for the EU. Save natural resources (water, food) to prevent conflicts over their scarcity and other impacts such as migration Area Issue Key words from the issue description (optional) No. code 1 DI04 Massive migration due to climate change 3 ENV03 Global under-pricing and overconsumption of water 3 ENV68 Global decline of freshwater availability leading to an increase in water scarcity 3 ENV70 Global decline in biodiversity and loss of ecosystems services 6 DS13 Attacks on infrastructure facilities 6 DS15 A major war by 2020 6 DS81 Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillance widely diffused Table 2 Example of a cross-cutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses and from different thematic areas (Demography, Environment, and Defence & Security); font styles of issue codes refer to the results obtained in the different RPM analyses (http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/survey_issues.pdf, visited 01/04/2011).
  • Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010) Synthesizing Issues Participants generated collectively a diverse set of 22 cross-cutting challenges, which were then prioritized by discussing in the light of three solution-oriented criteria related to their importance at the EU level: - Urgency: Is the challenge likely to provoke impacts that require urgent actions at EU level? - Tractability: Can solutions to the challenge be identified and implemented? Does the EU have the institutional capacity to act upon this challenge? - Impact: Are the actions to be taken by the EU expected to have a major global positive impact? By the end of the workshop, a workable agreement had been reached on the definition of the following three overarching challenges: (i) The need to change current ways in which essential natural resources are used. (ii) The need to anticipate and adapt to societal changes. (iii) The need for more effective and transparent governance for the EU and the world.
  • Facing the Future Discussion – Horizon Scanning
  • Facing the Future Conclusions – Horizon Scanning
  • Scanning methods (FP7 SESTI Project, 2011)
  • Expert assessments on emerging issues (FP7 SESTI Project, 2011)
  • The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process Cristiano Cagnin & Totti Könnölä JRC-IPTS & Impetu Solutions
  • Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable developmentIMS 2020 plan and process
  • IMS 2020 scenariosDesirability and likelihood of each scenario feature to define the IMS vision 2020
  • IMS 2020 Vision Rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing which leads to customised and eternal life cycle solutions Highly flexible and self-organising value chains which enable for different ways of organising production systems, including related infrastructures, and reduces the time between engaging with end users and delivering a solution Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of rules and a proper regulatory framework co-designed between governments, industries and societies
  • IMS Final Roadmap Process51
  • The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Web 2.0 for foresightExperiences on an Innovation Platform in European Agenda Setting 1 Karel Haegeman, 1Cristiano Cagnin, 2Totti Könnölä, 3Georgi Dimitrov and 4Doug Collins European Commission (1JRC-IPTS, 3DG EAC), 2Impetu Solutions, 4Spigit inc.
  • Web 2.0 for Foresight The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform Context: What is a Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC)?  Main instrument of the EIT  Highly integrated, creative and excellence-driven innovation partnership bringing together education, research and business  Objectives: increase competitiveness in Europe and tackle societal challenges  Until now three KICs: Climate KIC, KIC ICTLabs, KIC InnoEnergy  As part of the Strategic Innovation Agenda (SIA) the EIT will propose priority areas for future KICs Foresight case:  Aim: assist EIT to collect, assess and analyse ideas for "world-leading innovation, integrating education, business and research with a focus on specific thematic areas”  Focus on research communities (university researchers, PRO´s and private research)  Potential to serve as input for the SIA together with other inputs  Web 2.0 foresight approach
  • Web 2.0 for Foresight The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform Project roadmap
  • Structure1. Transformations2. Towards New Foresight Systems3. Towards New Methodologies4. New Approaches in Practice5.Conclusions
  • Conclusions
  • Opening Horizons What kind of new approaches are available? Thank you!Dr. Totti KönnöläCEO, Impetu SolutionsAssociate Prof., Comillas Pontifical UniversityAdjunct Prof., IE Business SchoolTwitter: ImpetuSolutionsWebsite: www.impetusolutions.comE-mail: totti.konnola@impetusolutions.com|Madrid (Spain) | Espoo (Finland)|