Innovation Future Scan 2010


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Innovation Future Scan 2010

  1. 1. Keynote - Short Version get closer … into the future 2010 Idris Mootee Future Scan 2010 1
  2. 2. “The single most frequent failure in the history of forecasting has been grossly underestimating the impact of technologies.” Future Scan 2010 2
  3. 3. Future Scan 2010 What Usually Happens? we dramatically we are doubling underestimate the our rate of power of technology technology progress every progress ten years 3 2005 © Idris Mootee
  4. 4. Phases of Innovation Explosion of Explosion of Standardization Contraction of different designs, different of design, competitors, combining product designs, Era of Emergence of Era of innovation with radical product process incremental low cost innovation innovation innovation capabilities Product Innovation Experience Innovation Process Innovation Rate of Major Innovation Dominant Design Lowest Cost Fluid Phase Transitional Specific Phase Fluid Phase Phase Time 4 2005 © Idris Mootee
  5. 5. Old Rules and Assumptions Distinct industry and regulatory structures based upon distinct analog technologies with old rules Digitization, packetization, convergence, cheap storage, advanced wireless, new compression technologies, cheap bandwidth together destroy compartmentalization. Future Scan 2010 5 2005 © Idris Mootee
  6. 6. 2010 Automation and the Service Society 2010 Est 6
  7. 7. Future Scan 2010 2010 Most of us will change jobs frequently, working for virtual companies with a core of critical staff and the rest on short-term contracts Cultures will mix and remix. Power structures will evolve. We may be more loyal to a network- based community of people with a similar value set than to our local geographic community 7 2005 © Idris Mootee
  8. 8. Future Scan 2010 2010 Fashion will be defined not only by how they look but also the way how fashion is “experienced”. Certain pieces of the garment will support the “server” of the clothes and the Internet will play a key channel for sales. Technology will shift to devices that we wear . 8 2005 © Idris Mootee
  9. 9. Future Scan 2010 2010 This is the symbolic age when computers “speak our language”, technologies are responsive to our needs and desires, humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. Search engines will translate our needs and connect us to the right products. 9 2005 © Idris Mootee
  10. 10. Future Scan 2010 2010 We will witness the birth of a ‘TACTILE’ revolution – new cosmetic, health & beauty products and brands that appeal to our many moods, manners, emotions & rebooted senses... Search Technology + Nanoaesthetics + Nanosurgery = ? 10 2005 © Idris Mootee
  11. 11. 2010 The Beginning of the Voluntary Future Lifetime hours trends: 1880 1995 2040 Total Available (after eating, 225,900 298,500 321,900 sleeping, etc.) Worked to earn a living 182,100 122,400 75,900 Future Balance for Leisure and 43,800 176,100 246,000 Scan Voluntary Work 2010 Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel 11
  12. 12. Future Scan 2010 2010 Real Low Cost PC A low-cost (below $125) PC to equip 50% of the world's population with Internet connectivity and computing capabilities by 2010. Miniaturization will also bring PC to a new level of portability. 12
  13. 13. 2010 Future Aggregation of formally distinct markets and Scan enhanced marketing clearing and greater 2010 specialization will drive change in many industries. Disaggregation will begin and you can order from the best-of-the breed suppliers to customize your own multi-brand product. 13
  14. 14. Future Scan 2010 2010 The dominant model of beauty will change. It will be replaced by ‘beauty by attitude’ to ‘beauty by age’ where biological age is less important than how you feel abut aging 14 2005 © Idris Mootee
  15. 15. Future Scan 2010 2010 Rainbow Youth Rainbow Youth - more over 60 than under 20 From “Selfish” to “Self-actualized” lifestyles From “Consumers” to the “Consumanist” shopper 15 2005 © Idris Mootee
  16. 16. Future Scan 2010 2010 Semantic Indexing Problem Solving via Cross-Correlating Multimedia Information across the Net. Every community has its own special library and every community does semantic indexing 16 2005 © Idris Mootee
  17. 17. Future Scan 2010 2020 i-Memory “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2025, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” 17 2005 © Idris Mootee
  18. 18. Thank You Future Scan 2010 We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we only borrow it from our children. - Native American Proverb Visit my blog at : 18