Keynote - Short Version
get closer … into the future 2010
Idris Mootee
Future
Scan
2010
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“The single most frequent failure
in the history of forecasting has
been grossly underestimating
the impact of technologies.”
Future
Scan
2010
2

Future
Scan
2010
What Usually Happens?
we dramatically we are doubling
underestimate the our rate of
power of technology
technology progress every
progress ten years
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2005 © Idris Mootee

Phases of Innovation
Explosion of
Explosion of Standardization Contraction of
different designs,
different of design, competitors,
combining product
designs, Era of Emergence of Era of
innovation with
radical product process incremental
low cost
innovation innovation innovation
capabilities
Product Innovation Experience Innovation
Process Innovation
Rate of
Major
Innovation
Dominant Design
Lowest Cost
Fluid Phase Transitional Specific Phase Fluid Phase
Phase
Time 4
2005 © Idris Mootee

Old Rules and Assumptions
Distinct industry and regulatory structures based
upon distinct analog technologies with old rules
Digitization, packetization, convergence, cheap
storage, advanced wireless, new compression
technologies, cheap bandwidth together destroy
compartmentalization.
Future
Scan
2010
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2005 © Idris Mootee

2010 Automation and the Service Society
2010 Est
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Future
Scan
2010
2010
Most of us will change jobs frequently, working
for virtual companies with a core of critical staff
and the rest on short-term contracts
Cultures will mix and remix. Power structures
will evolve. We may be more loyal to a network-
based community of people with a similar value
set than to our local geographic community
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2005 © Idris Mootee

Future
Scan
2010
2010
Fashion will be defined not only by how they
look but also the way how fashion is
“experienced”. Certain pieces of the garment
will support the “server” of the clothes and
the Internet will play a key channel for sales.
Technology will shift to devices that we wear .
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2005 © Idris Mootee

Future
Scan
2010
2010
This is the symbolic age when computers
“speak our language”, technologies are
responsive to our needs and desires, humans
and machines are intimately connected, and
always improving each other.
Search engines will translate our needs and
connect us to the right products.
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2005 © Idris Mootee

Future
Scan
2010
2010
We will witness the birth of a ‘TACTILE’
revolution – new cosmetic, health & beauty
products and brands that appeal to our
many moods, manners, emotions &
rebooted senses...
Search Technology + Nanoaesthetics +
Nanosurgery = ?
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2005 © Idris Mootee

2010 The Beginning of the Voluntary Future
Lifetime hours trends: 1880 1995 2040
Total Available (after eating, 225,900 298,500 321,900
sleeping, etc.)
Worked to earn a living 182,100 122,400 75,900
Future Balance for Leisure and 43,800 176,100 246,000
Scan Voluntary Work
2010
Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel 11

Future
Scan
2010
2010 Real Low Cost PC
A low-cost (below $125) PC to equip 50% of
the world's population with Internet
connectivity and computing capabilities by
2010.
Miniaturization will also bring PC to a new
level of portability.
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2010
Future Aggregation of formally distinct markets and
Scan
enhanced marketing clearing and greater
2010
specialization will drive change in many
industries.
Disaggregation will begin and you can order
from the best-of-the breed suppliers to
customize your own multi-brand product.
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Future
Scan
2010
2010
The dominant model of beauty will change. It
will be replaced by ‘beauty by attitude’ to
‘beauty by age’ where biological age is less
important than how you feel abut aging
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2005 © Idris Mootee

Future
Scan
2010
2010 Rainbow Youth
Rainbow Youth - more over 60 than under 20
From “Selfish” to “Self-actualized” lifestyles
From “Consumers” to the “Consumanist”
shopper
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2005 © Idris Mootee

Future
Scan
2010
2010 Semantic Indexing
Problem Solving via Cross-Correlating
Multimedia Information across the Net. Every
community has its own special library and
every community does semantic indexing
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2005 © Idris Mootee

Future
Scan
2010
2020 i-Memory
“I would never upload my consciousness into
a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.” When
your best friend dies in 2025, your digital best
friend will be “80% him.”
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2005 © Idris Mootee

Thank You
Future
Scan
2010
We do not inherit the earth
from our ancestors; we only
borrow it from our children.
- Native American Proverb
Visit my blog at : mootee.typepad.com
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