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Friday 1.15 Pm   Paul Offit   Current Events In Immunizations
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Friday 1.15 Pm Paul Offit Current Events In Immunizations

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Paul Offit presents Current Events in Immunizations

Paul Offit presents Current Events in Immunizations

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Transcript

  • 1.
    • Communicating Science
    • to the Public
    • Paul A. Offit, MD
    • The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia
    • The University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine
  • 2. MMR-Autism: Scientific Studies I Taylor, B, et al. Lancet 1999;351:2026-29 Dales L, et al. JAMA 2001;285:1183-85 Kaye JA, et al. Brit Med J 2001;322:460-3 Madsen KM, et al. N Engl J Med 2002;347:1477-82 Peltola H, et al. Lancet 1998;351:1327-8.
  • 3. MMR-Autism: Scientific Studies II Makela A, et al. Pediatrics 2002;110:957-63 DeStefano R, et al. Pediatrics 2004;113:259-66 Farrington CP, et al. Vaccine 2001;19:3632-5 Fombonne E, et al. Pediatrics 2001;108:e58 Taylor, B, et al. British Med J 2002;324:393-6
  • 4. Thimerosal-Autism: Scientific studies Hviid A, et al. JAMA 2003;290:1763-66 Andrews N, et al. Pediatrics 2004;114:584-91 Herron J. Pediatrics 2004;114:577-83 Verstraeten T, et al. Pediatrics 2003;112:1039-48 Barbaresi W, et al. Arc Ped Ado Med 2005;159:37-44 Schecter R, et al. Arch Gen Psychiatry 2008;65:19-24
  • 5. Defeating Epidemiology
  • 6. The fallacy of balance
  • 7.  
  • 8.  
  • 9.  
  • 10.  
  • 11. Epidemiological studies cannot detect rare events
  • 12.
    • “ Vaccines might cause autism in a small group of genetically susceptible individuals.”
  • 13. Power of epidemiological studies
    • Paralysis (GBS) and swine flu vaccine
    • Intestinal blockage and rotavirus vaccine
    • Low platelets and measles vaccine
    • Omnibus Autism Proceeding
  • 14. Epidemiological studies don’t prove anything
  • 15. Epidemiological studies and proof
    • Flying like Superman
    • WMD in Iraq
    • Cigarette smoking and lung cancer
  • 16. Anecdote trumps epidemiology
  • 17.  
  • 18. The power of box “a”
    • Disease No disease
    • Vaccine a b
    • No vaccine c d
    • Risk in “vaccine” group = a /a + b
    • Risk in “no vaccine” group c/ c + d
  • 19. Cultural Biases
  • 20. The media defends the weak against the powerful
  • 21.  
  • 22.  
  • 23. Players in vaccine-autism controversy
    • If you care about children with autism, you support the notion that vaccines are the cause. Lawyers, politicians, fringe scientists, and journalists care.
    • Doctors, public health officials, mainstream scientists and pharmaceutical companies don’t care.
  • 24. Players in autism controversy are miscast
    • Doctors and scientists who oppose notion that vaccines cause autism are standing up for the little guy
    • Those who claim that vaccines cause autism hurt children by providing false hope, proffering dangerous therapies, and diverting limited resources
  • 25. The media loves mavericks
  • 26.  
  • 27.  
  • 28.  
  • 29.  
  • 30.
    • “ While Galileo was a rebel, not all rebels are Galileo.”
    • Michael Fitzpatrick
  • 31. The media falls into the single-study trap
  • 32. Wakefield, A.J., et al. Lancet 351: 637-641, 1998.
  • 33.  
  • 34. The media doesn’t understand science
  • 35. What Science Isn’t
    • Science isn’t scientists or scientific bodies or accumulated knowledge
    • Science is a way of thinking about or approaching a problem
    • Although scientists get it wrong all the time, science is enormously self-correcting; but fluidity of science can be disconcerting
  • 36. Explaining cause and effect
  • 37. The Lay of the Land
    • Belief Percent of population
    • Astrology 50
    • ESP 46
    • Witches 19
    • Aliens already landed 22
    • Commune with dead 42
    • Ghosts 35
  • 38. Conflicts of interest
  • 39. Ad hominem attacks
    • If you don’t have the data, discredit the messenger
    • Appeal to personal considerations rather than logic or reason
    • CDC, AAP, individuals under fire
  • 40. Easy appeal to toxic, environmental hell
  • 41.  
  • 42.  
  • 43.  
  • 44.  
  • 45.  
  • 46. Easy to scare people; harder to unscare them
  • 47.  
  • 48. Poor understanding of risk
    • Scared of pandemic flu, but not epidemic flu; of radon, but not strokes and heart attacks; of dioxin, but not French fries; of plane travel, but not car travel; of MMR vaccine, but not measles; and of thimerosal-containing influenza vaccine, but not influenza.