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Imj conference2012 chapter2_マーケティング投資配分最適化_2
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Imj conference2012 chapter2_マーケティング投資配分最適化_2



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  • 1. b 1
  • 2. 予測される複雑性のレベルと対処への準備 不確実性の高い市場やより複雑になっていく生活者行動に 対して準備不足である。 IBM Global CMO Study 2011より Copyright © IMJ Corporation. All Rights Reserved. 2
  • 3. 準備不足を意識しているCMOの割合 IBM Global CMO Study 2011より Copyright © IMJ Corporation. All Rights Reserved. 3
  • 4. 準備不足を意識しているCMOの割合 日々複雑化する市場の中で、効果的・効率的なマーケティン グ活動を行い、企業価値を向上させるには? マーケティン 生活者属性 グ投資配分 とメディアや と デバイス毎の 売上・収益の 接触行動を 関係を把握 理解 IBM Global CMO Study 2011より Copyright © IMJ Corporation. All Rights Reserved. 4
  • 5. © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.
  • 6. What is Marketing Mix?“Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don’t know which half.” - John Wanamaker © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 6
  • 7. Marketers Are Challenged By Today’s Complexity Exponential growth of Fragmented and multi- marketing options platform media consumption Pressure to make Data deluge just marketing accountable beginning in the digital and transparent realm © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.
  • 8. Marketers Are Struggling to Meet these Challenges 65% of CMOs told IBM they are 54% of marketing execs told BCG “underprepared” for the growth they do not have the tools in channel & device choices, 63% required to make trade-offs said it for demographic shifts across media vehicles >50% picked “measurement, analysis 9% of marketing execs informed and learning” and “integrating the CMO Council that they cross-channel marketing” as #1 have a highly evolved, and #2 challenges in a Unica poll integrated marketing model © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.
  • 9. A Revolution in Marketing is Underway Planning From Hindsight to Foresight Branding & From Mass to Targeted Communication Measurement From Silos to Cross-Platform Execution From Test & Learn to Bold Shifts Process From Annual to Agile © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 9
  • 10. ThinkVine Was Founded to Solve These Specific Issues “Fast, Flexible, Forward-looking.” – VP, Marketing, Major Financial Services Firm • Forecasts sales impact and ROI of all marketing levers, including tactics and targets not tried before • Agent-based methodology allows you to analyze marketing ROI by granular tactics and individual consumer segments • Software-as-a-Service approach enables simulations of “what if” scenarios and collaborative planning across organization © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 10
  • 11. ThinkVine is Acknowledged as a Market Leader“ThinkVine’s biggest strength is its focus on modeling how a group of consumers actually behaves when exposed to a communication or a promotional or a social activity.” The Forrester WaveTM on Marketing Mix Modeling Q3 2011 Forrester screened 50 vendors ThinkVine ranked as a Leader • Highest-rated current offering • Highest-rated methodology • Highest-rated analysis • Fastest growing company © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 11
  • 12. Customer Case Studies Planning From Hindsight to Foresight• Business Goals Travel & • Increase market share Hospitality • Forecast revenue based on planned marketing• Discoveries • The current marketing plan would not deliver the revenue needed to surpass annual objectives • Successfully obtained incremental funding from board to close gap © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 12
  • 13. Customer Case Studies Planning From Hindsight to Foresight Comparison of 2013 Marketing Plan Alternatives +8.8% 185 +4.7% +2.9% Units (MM) +1.8% 178 -1.2% 175 173 170 168 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 $180 MM $180 MM $175 MM $180 MM $180 MM $185 MM Spent Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Same Mix Cut $5 MM Shift $5 MM Shift $5 MM Shift $5 MM as 2012 in Print Print to TV TV to Digital Print to Digital Add $5 MM TV © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 13
  • 14. Customer Case Studies Branding & From Mass to Targeted Communication• Business Goals Financial • Increase overall number of new households Services • Acquire new customers with high lifetime value• Discoveries • Specific types of mass media can activate high value segments better than digital tactics • Creating multiple marketing plans under one “umbrella plan” can help better target specific segments based on CLV © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 14
  • 15. Customer Case Studies Branding & From Mass to Targeted Communication Marketing Tactic Effectiveness By Consumer Group50+ Affluent TV 50+ Other Radio Print<30 Affluent Digital Ads Search Mobile Other <30 $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 15
  • 16. Customer Case Studies Measurement From Silos to Cross-Platform• Business Goals Consumer • Increase share in the tablet and mobile device markets Electronics • Adjust marketing levers across all tactics continuously• Discoveries • Specific types of digital tactics work better than others to drive adoption • Online and offline media synergize well only as part of an overall integrated campaign • Responses to competitive activity have to be integrated as well © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 16
  • 17. Customer Case Studies Measurement From Silos to Cross-Platform Economy Sales Adoption 60,000 Mass Digital Experiment +11% Media 50,000 New Device ActivationsTV Print Search Display Mobile 40,000 Non- Re-By Market Magazine Branded Tablet branded targeting 30,000 Newspaper Google Google RTB OOH 20,000 Yahoo Yahoo 10,000 Bing Bing 0 Base Plan Optimized Plan ROI = $2.25 ROI = $2.47 © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 17
  • 18. Customer Case Studies Execution From Test & Learn to Bold Shifts• Business Goals Food & • Forecast impacts of new tactics not tried before Beverage • Identify new channels of reaching younger consumers• Discoveries • Cinema and mobile advertising both show promise as new tactics, with projected ROI metrics stronger than certain mass media tactics • Shifting a portion of the budget to these channels can increase sales by 3- 7% next year © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 18
  • 19. Customer Case Studies Execution From Test & Learn to Bold Shifts Planned Marketing Mix Proposed Mix with Mobile Added Mass Media Mass Media 67% 61% Promotions 11% Digital Promotions Digital Mobile 22% 11% 22% 6% Forecast 2012 Original 2012 Add Mobile % Change Volume 36,928 38,109 3% © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 19
  • 20. Customer Case Studies Process From Annual to Agile• Business Goals • Optimize go-to-market plans for a new product Pharma • Course correct throughout launch cycle vs. one-time• Discoveries • Incorporating consume and geographic segments as part of the initial pre- launch optimization can improve launch success by 10% per year • On-going results can be updated within 5-10 business days upon product launch and provide on-going decision support © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 20
  • 21. Customer Case Studies Process From Annual to Agile Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 25 20 15 10 5 0 1/1/2012 2/1/2012 3/1/2012 4/1/2012 5/1/2012 6/1/2012 7/1/2012 8/1/2012 9/1/2012 10/1/2012 11/1/2012 12/1/2012 © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 21
  • 22. ThinkVine’s Marketing Mix Optimization Software ImprovesMarketing Across Multiple Dimensions Spend Tactics • What is my overall ROI and • How do I best allocate my am I spending the “right” budget across a amount to support my combination of vehicles to brand? increase sales? Targets Timing • How do I best align my • How do I forecast long- marketing to specific high term effects of marketing value segments? and exploit seasonality? © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 22
  • 23. Conventional Models are Challenged by the Complexity in Today’s Marketing Environment • Conventional marketing mix models directly solve for the relationship between sales volume and past marketing tactics and excludes the notion of consumer differences• No direct consumer-level insights: does not support Fit and extrapolate segmentation/targeting• Can only “see” activities that have large spends or cause large variance• “Backward-looking forecasts” assume future is just like the past• Unable to use for media not tried before today © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 23
  • 24. ThinkVine’s Approach Focuses on the Underlying Relationship Between Consumers and Marketing • “ThinkVine ranks as a Leader because of its innovative, agent-based approach to mix modeling and its robust technologies” – Forrester WaveTM Q3 2011 Today Possible futures• Agent-based simulation technology• 50,000 mathematically- derived, computer generated consumers that behave just like real consumers• Customers have described ThinkVine’s methodology as “Sim City” for CMOs Forecasting via simulation © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 24
  • 25. ThinkVine’s Methodology: Agent-Based Modeling• Via billions of calculations, each run simulates what people in the market do and how your marketing plan affects purchase behavior from the bottom-up Marketing Activity Consumer Segments by Product Aggregated Sales © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 25
  • 26. ThinkVine Overcomes the Flaws of Regression-based Mix Regression fits a line to historical data and extends it forward, assuming the future will be just like the past. ThinkVine is predictive, using data and analytics to simulate consumer response and purchase behavior. Regression is run at the aggregate level, modelers try to “tease out” info on marketing tactics and by group. ThinkVine works bottom-up, delivering more accurate forecasts and providing granular, multi-dimensional info. Regression is usually a consulting project with reports. ThinkVine’s SaaS approach enables your staff and agencies to use an agile, objective, fully-integrated planning process focused on improving results. © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 26
  • 27. ThinkVine Delivers What The C-Suite Wants Optimize ROI and sales across all tactics, segments & channels Quantify the effects of proposed changes Get better forecasts of sales and ROI © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 27
  • 28. ThinkVines marketing mix optimization softwareprovides B2C marketers with the forward-looking information they need to get the maximum return across all of their marketing investments. See a 2 minute video overview at or call +1 513 842 5900 © ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.
  • 29. Copyright © IMJ Corporation. All Rights Reserved. 29