آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي : الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى

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عرض عام : لمنطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان

عرض عام : لمنطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان

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  • The global recovery has evolved better than expected. The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook , forecasts global growth to reach 4.2 percent in 2010. This is an upward revision of 0.3 percent from our January forecast. However, these good global numbers hide a complex reality; namely, a tepid recovery in many advanced countries and a much stronger one in most emerging and developing economies. Moreover, the rebound in global growth has to be seen in perspective of the exceptionally large contraction that occurred in 2009. Overall, the rebound has not been sufficient to make up for the ground lost during the recession. Advanced economies in particular are facing a large gap between current output and the pre-crisis trend, and this gap is expected to remain large for many years to come.
  • As discussed in the newly released Global Financial Stability Report , financial market conditions and stability have improved noticeably over the past year. This is evidenced by recoveries in equity markets and declining sovereign and corporate spreads. The decline in bank credit has been large relative to most recessions and weak credit remains one of the main obstacles to growth. However, with improving financial market conditions, the tightening of bank lending conditions is coming to an end, suggesting a nascent turn in the credit cycle. At the same time, in a few advanced economies, rising public deficits and debt have recently contributed to a sharp increase in sovereign risk premiums, posing new risks to the recovery.
  • Together with real and financial activity, cross-border financial flows from advanced to emerging economies have picked up since their deep retrenchment in 2008. Both equity and bond flows have accelerated strongly since the end of 2008, although syndicated loan issuance remains below pre-crisis levels. The growth in cross-border flows has come mostly from outside the banking sector, as banks continue to retrench their balance sheets. Key drivers behind the renewed capital flows include rapid growth in emerging economies, large yield differentials in their favor, and returning appetite for risk. The renewed flows have eased financial conditions in many emerging economies and prompted some authorities to be watchful of increasing property prices, in some cases taking measures to rein in domestic credit growth.
  • Although starting to recover, credit growth remains low in many countries. China stands out in this regard, with credit and some asset markets booming, to such an extent that the People’s Bank of China has taken various measures to moderate the pace of lending, including raising reserve requirements. Overall, financial conditions remain more difficult than before the crisis. Especially in advanced economies, bank capital is likely to remain a constraint on growth as banks continue to retrench their balance sheets. Sectors that have only limited access to capital markets––consumers and small and medium-size enterprises––are likely to continue to face tight limits on their borrowing.
  • Global growth is projected to reach 4¼ percent in 2010 and 2011, but the recovery is proceeding at varying speeds—tepidly in many advanced economies and solidly in most emerging and developing economies. Among the advanced economies, the United States is off to a better start than Europe and Japan. For advanced economies overall we forecast growth to be 2.3 percent for 2010, and 2.4 percent for 2011. Growth in emerging and developing economies is forecast to be much stronger than in advanced economies. For these countries, growth is projected to reach 6.3 percent in 2010 and 6.4 percent in 2011. Developing Asia is in the lead, with forecasts of 8.7 percent in 2010, 8.6 percent in 2011. And, growth appears not only to be strong, but to be sustainable. While fiscal policy often played a central role in supporting activity in 2009, private demand is strengthening and can sustain growth in the future. Economies that are off to a strong start are likely to continue to lead the recovery, as growth in others is held back by lasting damage to financial sectors and household balance sheets. The recovery under way in the major advanced economies will be relatively sluggish compared with recoveries from previous recessions. Likewise, the recoveries in many economies of emerging Europe and the CIS are likely to be sluggish compared with those expected for many other emerging economies.
  • Although having picked up, at the current pace overall growth is not sufficient to make up for the ground lost during the recession. Output in the advanced economies is now 7 percent below its precrisis trend, and this output gap is expected to remain large for many years to come. Associated with this prolonged output gap is persistent high unemployment. What is the main factor behind this weak performance and this prolonged output gap? We think it is weak private demand. In the U.S., consumers, who were the drivers of the economy before the crisis, are being more prudent. In Europe, where banks play a central role in the financial intermediation, the weak banking sector limits credit supply. In Japan, deflation has reappeared, leading to higher real interest rates and putting in danger an already weak recovery. The outlook for activity remains unusually uncertain, even though a variety of risks have receded. Risks are generally to the downside, with those related to public debt growth in advanced economies having become sharply more evident. In the near term, a risk is that, if unchecked, market concerns about sovereign liquidity and solvency in Greece could turn into a full-blown and contagious sovereign debt crisis. More generally, the main concern is that room for policy maneuver in many countries has either been largely exhausted or is much more limited than it was, leaving the fragile recoveries exposed to new shocks. In addition, bank exposures to real estate continue to pose downside risks, mainly in the United States and parts of Europe.
  • While the global economy is recovering -- and recovering better than we had previously thought likely -- new challenges have presented themselves. Achieving strong, sustained, and balanced growth will not be easy. In advanced countries the main challenge is one of fiscal consolidation. A year ago the risk was that private demand would collapse, leading to another Great Depression, so the priority was to implement fiscal stimulus programs and avoid this catastrophic scenario. One year later, however, the risk has shifted location. The loss in fiscal revenues associated with the crisis, is threatening to lead to a debt explosion. Alongside fiscal consolidation, more progress with financial sector repair and reform is a top priority for a number of advanced economies. Financial market inefficiencies and regulatory and supervisory failures played a major role in the crisis and need to be remedied to build a stronger financial system. Combating unemployment is yet another policy challenge. As high unemployment persists in advanced economies, a major concern is that temporary joblessness will turn into long-term unemployment. Beyond pursuing macroeconomic policies that support recovery in the near term and financial sector policies that restore banking sector health, specific labor market policies could also help limit damage to the labor market. Emerging and developing countries generally face a different set of challenges. One of them is large capital inflows. Such inflows, especially when driven by growth prospects, are fundamentally good news. But, we have learned from experience that they can also lead to booms and busts. Thus, the main policy issue facing recipient countries is how to best accommodate these flows, how much to let the currency appreciate, how to use macroeconomic policy, how to use macroprudential tools, reserves, and capital controls so as to avoid the excesses and maintain stable growth.
  • Background: External conditions began to improve during the second half of 2009. First, after bottoming out at $34 per barrel in late 2008, oil prices recovered steadily and started to gain momentum mid-year, surpassing $70 per barrel in July 2009 and $80 per barrel in April 2010. Thus, export receipts began to recover, with positive balance-of-payments effects throughout the region. Total exports of MENAP oil exporters grew by 28 percent between February and December of 2009. At the same time, stock markets in the region have been recovering from their post-Lehman lows reached in the first quarter of 2009. However, except for the case of Iran, stock markets still have not recovered to their pre-Lehman levels. The Dubai Crisis did not significantly affect stock markets beyond the United Arab Emirates, although recent events in Greece have led to significant stock market declines since mid-April (as of May 19 th ): Saudi Arabia : 6.6 percent Oman: 5.7 percent Qatar: 5.5 percent Kuwait: 3.7 percent Bahrain: 2.5 percent Dubai: 3.5 percent Abu Dhabi: 1.2 percent
  • Background: Countercyclical fiscal policy was instrumental in buoying non-oil activity in several countries in 2009. In addition to the sizable stimulus provided in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, in Algeria total central government expenditure—which included a large public investment program—increased by more than 10 percentage points of GDP from 2007 to 2009. As a result, non-oil GDP growth accelerated, from about 6 percent to over 9 percent in 2009. In some countries, where a relatively high share of oil revenues was already being used to finance government spending, and which faced significant financing constraints, the possibility of countercyclical fiscal policy was precluded: In Iraq, for example, the drop in revenues by 1/3 in nominal terms, led to a compression in government spending, most of which fell on investment. Iran faced a 2.5 percentage-point contraction in revenues and responded with a procyclical fiscal policy, reducing its non-oil deficit by more than 3.7 percentage points of non-oil GDP. Similarly, Sudan—limited by high levels of public debt and lack of access to external financing—reduced its non-oil deficit by more than 6 percentage points of GDP.   For the MENAP oil exporters as a whole, the non-oil fiscal deficit declined by almost 3 percentage points in 2009. For 2010 it is projected to increase by two percentage points of non-oil GDP, to 43.5 percent.   For the GCC, the increase is projected to be close to 5 percentage points of non-oil GDP. In particular, Saudi Arabia is set to follow up the largest fiscal stimulus among G20 countries with another record spending package, for an accumulated expansion of 11.5 percentage points of non-oil GDP for 2009 and 2010. However, as in 2009, some countries will not be able to increase fiscal expenditure appreciably, despite the rebound in oil prices. In Sudan and Yemen, lack of fiscal room will limit the scope for spending to address key social and conflict-related challenges. Given the increase in oil-related revenues, the overall fiscal balance is projected to improve from a deficit of 0.8 percent of GDP to a surplus of 2.8 percent in 2010. For the GCC, the improvement is projected to be about 5 percentage points of GDP.   Data Revisions Relative to Fall 2009 REO   Kuwait : fiscal balance revised upward in 2009 (by 2.6 percent of GDP) owing to lower execution of spending than expected, and downward in 2010 (by 2.4 percent of GDP) due to lower oil revenues. Qatar : fiscal balance revised upward in 2009 (by 4 percent of GDP) due to a large transfer of investment income from public enterprises. Saudi Arabia : fiscal balance revised downward in 2009 (by 5.9 percent of GDP) due to higher spending related to floods in Jeddah and security on the Yemeni border. UAE: fiscal balance revised downward in 2009 (by 3.6 percent of GDP) as a result of higher spending by Abu Dhabi and lower revenues.
  • Background : Fiscal stimulus will continue in many countries, as well as monetary expansion as well, both through conventional and unconventional means. Overall spending, which had increased from 29.8 percent of GDP to 35 percent in 2009, is projected at 32.9 percent of GDP in 2010. Oil prices are projected to increase, by about 30 percent on average (from $61.78 to a projected $80 per barrel in 2010. Lower external financing costs are expected, as well as a resumption of capital flows. Non-oil activity is projected to accelerate slightly, to 4.1 percent growth. Given a projected 3.6 percent increase in crude oil production, real oil GDP is projected to increase by 4.3 percent. Overall activity is projected to increase by 4.3 percent in 2010, then by 4.5 percent in 2011. Data Revisions Relative to Fall 2009 REO Kuwait: real GDP was revised downward in 2009 (by 1.1 percentage points) owing to a larger than expected decline in oil production. Oman: real GDP growth was revised downward in 2008 (by 0.7 percentage points) by the authorities. Qatar : 2009 growth figure for 2009 was revised downward (by 2.4 percentage points) due to delays in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production profile. Saudi Arabia : real GDP growth was revised upward in 2009 (by 1 percentage point) and downward in 2010 (by 1.3 percentage points) as a result of national account data being revised in early 2010. UAE : growth figures for both 2009 and 2010 were revised downward (by 0.5 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively) owing to the impact of the Dubai Crisis and to other official data revisions.
  • Background: Spurred by the higher oil price and a recovery in production levels, oil exports are projected to increase by 31 percent, to US$ 680 billion in 2010, well above 2007 levels. The external current account balance is expected to more than double relative to 2009, to US$140 billion.   Data Revisions Relative to Fall 2009 REO Saudi Arabia: the current account was revised upward in 2009 (by 1.5 percentage points) due to lower imports, and downward in 2010 (by 2.3 percentage points) and beyond due to higher import projections related to the record budget in 2010. UAE: the current account is projected to improve by 2.6 percent of GDP in 2010 owing to lower import demand (related to the bursting of the real estate bubble) and the stronger recovery in oil prices.
  • This graph shows the spot oil price up until May 17, followed by price forecasts based on futures for delivery dates below: Price Forecasts 8/1/2010 $76.20/barrel 11/1/2010 $ 78.69/barrel 2/1/2011 $ 81.96/barrel 12/1/2011 $ 83.30/barrel 12/1/2012 $ 84.98/barrel Confidence intervals of 68%, 86%, and 95% around these forecast prices are also shown.
  • Background: After accelerating to peak annual growth rates ranging from over 30 percent (Saudi Arabia and Qatar) to almost 100 percent (Sudan) before the global crisis, credit has decelerated sharply, by an average of about 30 percentage points. Several countries have experienced declines of more than 40 percentage points. The causes have—by differing degrees—spanned both supply and demand factors. On the supply side, banks were subjected to two types of shocks: (1) an intense cutback in funding, as deposit growth slowed and, in some cases, external borrowing was curtailed; and (2) increased strains on their balance sheets, as profitability fell and nonperforming loans rose. The economic downturn depressed credit demand and increased uncertainty about future investment prospects, thus heightening risk aversion among both banks and borrowers. There also may be a shift in the credit culture away from name lending and toward an approach based on accurate disclosure and appropriate risk management. In some cases, policies undertaken in the aftermath of the crisis have helped to counteract the decline in funding, in particular: (1) liquidity provision through repos, (2) government direct liquidity injections via long-term deposits, (3) lowering of policy interest rates, (4) lowering of reserve requirements, (5) deposit guarantees, (6) capital injections, and (7) purchases of banks’ holdings of real estate and equities. However, not all countries have been affected by stagnant private sector credit. In Algeria, credit growth did not decline to a large degree, and continued to grow at close to a 20 percent annual rate in late 2009, despite policy measures to curb it. In Sudan, credit accelerated slightly in the first half of 2009 and subsequently settled at a 16 percent growth rate, owing in part to the continued strength of deposit growth.
  • Background: A standard methodology identifies credit booms as episodes during which credit is not only growing at a high rate, but also is surpassing its long-run trend by a “large enough” amount. Among MENAP oil exporters, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and possibly Iran, are identified as having experienced a credit boom in the years prior to the crisis, although virtually all countries were in fact experiencing above-trend credit growth.   A retrospective analysis covering the 1983-2008 period reveals a typical boom-bust pattern of behavior for MENA countries. From a median real growth rate of more than 20 percent, credit slows to close to zero growth within two years, followed by only 5 percent growth for at least three years. If past history is any indication, this pattern suggests that reviving credit growth is likely to be challenging.
  • Background: Prior to 2008, capital flows to the Middle East had risen particularly rapidly. Flows to the region increased from about $30 billion in 2003 to over $400 billion in 2007, in percentage terms a larger increase than for any other region and in nominal terms second only to emerging Asia. Coinciding with a period of rising oil prices and large current account surpluses, most of the inflows went to the region’s oil exporters, in particular Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and mainly in the form of financing from foreign banks. While governments accumulated large reserves, banks and corporations were borrowing heavily abroad. Consequently, inflows to these countries rose alongside an even larger increase in their investments abroad. By 2007, signs of overheating emerged, with inflation rising towards double digits in several Gulf States and speculation in currency appreciation adding to inflows. Inflows fell sharply in 2008 with the global financial crisis. As investors reduced their positions, the stock of foreign non-FDI investment in the oil exporters contracted by almost 8 percent of GDP, compared to an increase of over 20 percent of GDP in 2007—a larger reversal than for emerging and developing countries overall. FDI was much more resilient, declining by less than 0.1 percentage points of GDP in 2008 and recovering slightly in 2009. The 2009 rebound in capital flows to MENAP oil exporters was concentrated in new bond issuance—reaching a record level of $28 billion for the year—about half of which was by sovereigns, and 85 percent of which was by the UAE and Qatar. The Dubai World crisis led to a temporary suspension of issuance, which resumed in the first quarter of 2010.
  • The region’s receipts from abroad have revived along with the global recovery. Tourism and remittances have been relatively resilient, but goods exports and foreign direct investment were hard hit by the global crisis. Lower incomes and prices pulled imports down in parallel. As the global recovery set in and commodity prices rebounded, the region’s trade started to bounce back in mid-2009. With exports now growing faster than imports, the combined current account deficit is projected to narrow to 4.2 percent of GDP in 2010. Nevertheless, exports and FDI are in most countries projected to remain well below 2008 levels. Notes on external current account: Djibouti – lower deficit reflects lower FDI-related imports. Egypt – lower deficit for 2010 compared to previous REO due to stronger external demand, reflecting upward revision of global growth. Jordan – lower deficit for 2009 reflects lower than expected imports, upward revision of non-budgetary grant receipts, and higher than expected inflows of remittances. Lebanon – structurally high deficit has hovered in the low double digits for over a decade. Mauritania – larger deficit in 2009 reflects lower mining exports.
  • While quite small, most of the region’s exchanges surged in 2009 and have generally outperformed the emerging market average. One exception is Jordan, where stocks have remained subdued after the country experienced what was perhaps the steepest decline in economic growth among the MENAP oil importers. At the other end of the scale, Tunisia’s stock market bucked the global downturn and is currently in record territory on the back of efforts to diversify the financial sector and abundant liquidity in the economy. Tunisia aside, however, regional stock markets are still far from their pre-crisis peaks. As financial conditions normalized, interest spreads on sovereign external bonds declined during 2009, along with the emerging market average. Since then spreads have generally leveled off. So far the impact on the region of the turmoil in Greece has been limited. However, the volatility of financial markets worldwide has increased in recent weeks.
  • Although starting to picking up, growth in credit to the private sector has slowed sharply in several countries since 2008, as it also has in most other regions. Credit growth is close to zero in Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan – countries that together account for 70 percent of the group’s GDP. However, credit growth remains brisk at close to 20 percent in Djibouti, Lebanon, and Syria – countries were less hard hit by the global financial crisis. Overall capital inflows to the region have also been relatively sluggish. While capital flows to other emerging markets sprung back strongly in early 2009, aside from Lebanon (which accounts for almost half of the group’s total issuance since the start of 2009), the MENAP oil importers had almost no little international issuance until late 2009. The lagging new issuance reflects difficulties in adjusting to changes in the composition of global capital flows. With banks under pressure worldwide and investors showing preference for more liquid instruments, the increase in capital inflows to emerging markets during the past year has mainly been in bonds and equity. Together, bonds and equities have accounted for 60 percent of new issuance in emerging markets over the past year, compared to 30 percent in 2008. In this predominantly bank-based region, there has been very little equity or corporate bond issuance. Even among sovereigns, until Egypt’s $1.5billion external bond placement in April 2010, Lebanon had accounted for almost all the oil importer’s bond issuance since 2008.
  • The region’s economic recovery is gradually gaining traction. But, overall, the economies have been relatively slow to pick up. At 4.1 percent, combined real GDP growth is projected to be only marginally higher than in 2009 and insufficient to effectively absorb a working age population that is growing by about 2½ percent a year. Limited financial and trade ties contained the impact of the global financial crisis but are also holding back the rebound. Among the individual countries, Afghanistan is the only country in the group that is expected to grow faster than the emerging and developing country average of 6.3 percent in 2010 – a figure that is held up by rapid growth in China and India. The oil importers’ projected growth compares more favorably to countries outside Asia but is still on the low side considering differences in population growth. Growth is generally projected to continue to increase , reaching 4.8 percent overall in 2011. Notes on growth developments: Where growth is projected to decline it is mainly the result of country-specific developments. In Morocco and Afghanistan, last year’s unusually good harvests are leading to lower growth this year. Following earlier improvements in the Political and security situation, the decline in growth in Lebanon is also mainly due to base effects. Afghanistan —Exceptionally good 2009/10 harvest years sent GDP growth from earlier projected 15% to 22.5%. Growth was also boosted by higher spending by coalition forces. Djibouti —Downward revision for 2010 (5.4% in Fall REO) reflects lower FDI and port activity. Egypt —Upward change from last REO (4.7%) reflects upward revision of global growth. Lebanon —Upward revision (4% in Fall REO) reflects carryover from better-than-expected 2009 outturn and the strength of activity indicators during 2010Q1. The economy remains boosted by a confidence rebound and strength in construction, tourism, and financial services. Mauritania —Downward revision to 2009 and 2010 reflects lower mining output
  • One of the main risks to the outlook relates to possible spreading of recent turmoil in Greece to other countries in Europe and beyond. Overall, as noted above, the MENAP oil importers have so far not been affected much. This is consistent with these countries having little direct financial exposure to Southern Europe and generally small external roll-over needs. While international financial exposure is mostly limited, the region could still be affected through real sector channels if the crisis in Europe intensifies. Such channels would include trade, tourism, remittances, FDI, and possibly development assistance. The Maghreb countries have close trade ties to Europe and are within the MENAP region the most vulnerable in this regard. At the same time, the Maghreb countries have comfortable reserves and lower public debt than others in the region, giving them some room to counter temporary shocks. Other potential vulnerabilities include: Exchange rate volatility (although countries with currencies tied to the Euro could see offsetting competitiveness gains from effective depreciation, and those with currencies tied to the US dollar could benefit from a lower cost of imports from Europe). General deterioration in market sentiment, impacting on equity and debt markets. Lower commodity prices. Intra-regional spillovers if growth in oil producers slows as a result of lower oil prices. In Lebanon, dependence on non-resident deposits to cover banks external roll over needs. In Djibouti (and to a lesser extent in Egypt and Morocco), high share of European subsidiaries in banking system assets.
  • The scope for lower policy rates has largely come to an end, given output near potential and relatively high inflation in much of the region. Inflation has increased in recent months, to above 10 percent in Egypt and Pakistan as a result of higher food and energy prices. For the rest of the year, inflation is expected to moderate somewhat in Egypt and Pakistan but increase in several of the other countries. Most of the oil importers have both higher public debt and deficit levels than their peers. Given generally tight fiscal space, most are seeking to restrain government expenditure. For the region as a whole, the fiscal deficit is projected to widen only modestly to 6 percent of GDP in 2010 from 5.5 percent in 2009. And, with countercyclical fiscal policy having largely run its course, most are projected to reduce their deficits and debt levels relative to GDP in 2011. Notes on inflation: Afghanistan —The price level in 2009 turned out lower than earlier projected because of successful disinflation and lower food prices. Current policies and trends suggest that inflation will remain modest. Djibouti —Lower 2009 actual reflects lower food prices. Egypt —Upward change from the last REO and higher than peer countries. Higher actual food price inflation (fruits and vegetables). Mauritania —Lower 2009 actual reflects lower import prices. Morocco —Lower 2009 actual as CPI growth decelerated at the end of the year. Pakistan —Higher actual from continuing upward pressure on food and energy prices. High government spending also prevents reductions in the rate of base money creation. Tunisia —Small acceleration in early 2010, when overall CPI growth increased above 5 percent driven mainly by food prices, while core-CPI inflation was low (slightly above 3 percent). On this basis, 2010 average inflation is projected to be about 0.8ppt higher than in the Fall REO). Notes on fiscal position: Afghanistan —Revenues higher due to both tax policy and improvements in tax administration. Djibouti —2009 deficit larger than expected due to higher capital spending. Egypt —Improvement relative to Fall REO mainly from lower than envisaged net acquisition of financial assets by the social insurance fund (2009 and 2010). Jordan —Fiscal deficit for 2009 is 2.4 percent of GDP higher compared with the Fall 2009 REO mainly because of the shortfall in external budgetary grants. Lebanon —Large deficit is mainly a reflection of large interest payments (the primary balance has been positive in recent years). The better-than-expected outturn in 2009 was the result of stronger-than-expected revenue growth and spending restraint. Mauritania —Larger than earlier expected deficit (2009 and 2010) reflects lower revenues and grants Tunisia —Smaller than earlier expected deficit in 2009 reflects stronger than expected tax revenues. For 2010, the improvement relative to the Fall REO (but widening relative to the 2009 outcome) is due to base effects and higher projected grants and privatization receipts.
  • Although the performance of the region’s economies improved in the last decade, they have continued to lag behind other emerging markets. At 4.7 percent, the oil importers’ average annual real GDP growth during the past decade, although higher than the 4.2 percent of the 1990s, was some 1¼ percentage points lower than the average for emerging and developing economies. In per capita terms, the shortfall was even larger, as population growth at almost 2 percent a year was over ½ percentage point higher. The shortfall is especially visible in exports. In contrast to Asian emerging markets where exports have surged, the region’s per capita exports have remained relatively low, at around 20 percent of the world average. The region’s exports did comparatively well during 2008–09—in large part reflecting its relative isolation from the global crisis—but these countries are again losing ground in 2010, as exports are rebounding more strongly in other emerging markets. One important obstacle has been a cumbersome business environment. Although such measures are only indicative, this is reflected in international rankings of competitiveness, where many of the countries tend to score poorly. This challenge has been well recognized, and the oil importers in the past few years have been among the most active reformers worldwide. Egypt, for example, has been among the top-10 reformers worldwide in four of the past seven years according to the World Bank’s Doing Business survey. Nevertheless, most of the oil importers have some distance to go in promoting a more business-friendly environment.
  • Currently growing by about 2½ percent a year, the region’s working age population has almost doubled since 1990 and is projected to increase by another quarter over the next decade. Many are struggling to find employment. Although economic growth increased over the past two decades, unemployment has stayed high, averaging about 12 percent and only falling slightly during the high-growth years of 2006–08. The low correlation points to a structural problem. Slower economic growth and fewer work opportunities abroad are now intensifying domestic job shortages. Reducing unemployment will require major labor market reforms and higher economic growth.
  • Oil exporters: Fiscal stimulus, instrumental in sustaining non-oil activity in several countries during the 2009 downturn, is projected to continue into 2010, which will aid in solidifying the recovery. Beyond 2010, unwinding of the stimulus would be warranted, particularly in countries with high debt, and to avoid possible crowding-out effects in the medium term as private sector activity gains momentum. Policymakers will face a delicate balancing act in unwinding official support to the financial sector. Liquidity and capital injections have been effective in cushioning the slowdown in bank credit; their unwinding should begin once a recovery becomes evident. While a strengthening of regulatory and supervisory frameworks may be advisable in some countries to bolster and preserve financial stability, this may necessarily come at the cost of a slower recovery in credit. Some countries have already begun to advance in this regard. Given that the effects of the crisis have not entirely worked their way through the system, nonperforming loans are expected to increase in 2010. In order to provide sufficient capital cushions for this eventuality, banks Kuwait have been raising private capital in a preventive fashion, increasing their capital adequacy ratio to about 17 percent on average, while banks in the UAE and Qatar have been doing so with public capital. Oil importers: The region will need to focus more on advancing structural reforms. Given fiscal pressures, growth and job creation will need to come from the private sector. A more business-friendly regulatory environment is needed with some urgency. Persistently high unemployment also calls for more labor market flexibility and improvements in educational systems. By helping unleash the region’s large unused labor potential, such measures could also help address the region’s lagging external competitiveness. Financial sector policy should increasingly focus on the regulatory environment, including to address a potential increase in nonperforming loans as the impact of the economic slowdown continues to permeate across sectors. Fiscal positions can, in many cases, be bolstered by improvements in revenue administration to enhance tax collection (e.g VAT extension in Egypt, and Pakistan) and the scaling back of costly and distorting subsidies. Syria’s recent reform of its petroleum subsidies is a good example in this regard.

Transcript

  • 1. إدارة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى صندوق النقد الدولي 25 مايو / أيار 2010 آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى
  • 2. عرض عام عرض عام لمنطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان (MENAP) الآفاق العالمية
  • 3. تعافٍ متعدد السرعات
  • 4. الأسهم العالمية ( مؤشرات Morgan Stanley MSCI لأسعار الأسهم بالدولار الأمريكي، مرجحة ب س عر الصرف السائد في السوق؛ 2007 = 100) 1 متوسطات فروق العائد على سندات الشركات من تصنيفات BB-B للسندات الأمريكية و BB-B للسندات الدولية و BBB للسندات اليابانية . فروق العائد على السندات السيادية وسندات الشركات ( بنقط الأساس ) الأسواق المالية العالمية تعافت بسرعة فاقت التوقعات يناير 2010 يناير 2009 يناير 2008 يناير 2007 يناير 2010 يناير 2009 يناير 2008 يناير 2007 مؤشر شركات الاقتصادات المتقدمة 1 مؤشر
  • 5. إصدارات السندات والأسهم الخارجية في الأسواق الصاعدة ( بمليارات الدولارات الأمريكية ) التدفقات الرأسمالية عادت إلى الأسواق الصاعدة بعد التوقف المفاجئ الشرق الأوسط / إفريقيا أوروبا النامية أمريكا اللاتينية آسيا الصاعدة الربع الثالث من عام 2009 الربع الثالث من عام 2007 الربع الثالث من عام 2006 الربع الثالث من عام 2008
  • 6. المصدر : بنك انجلترا، والبنك المركزي الأوروبي، ومجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي نمو الائتمان الخاص ( التغير % محسوبا على أساس سنوي للمتوسط المتحرك على مدى ثلاثة شهور مقارنة بما كان عليه في الثلاثة شهور السابقة ) الحصول على الائتمان المصرفي لا يزال صعبا في كثير من البلدان أمريكا اللاتينية آسيا الصاعدة أوروبا الشرقية الولايات المتحدة منطقة اليورو المملكة المتحدة يتعين على البنوك إعادة بناء رؤوس أموالها
  • 7. نمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي الحقيقي ( النمو % مقارنة بالعام السابق ) الاقتصاد العالمي مهيأ لمزيد من التعافي بدرجات سرعة متفاوتة ال اقتصادات ال صاعدة ال اقتصادات ال متقدمة العالم مارس 2010 مارس 2008 مارس 2006 مارس 2004 مارس 2002 مارس 2000
    • انحسار التنشيط المالي تدريجيا
    • تراجع عمليات إعادة بناء المخزونات
    • سي ؤديان إلى كبح النمو في فترة لاحقة من عام 2010 وفي عام 2011
  • 8. نمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي العالمي ( المؤشر ، 2006=100) الأزمة المالية العالمية ستترك آثارا دائمة ع لى مستويات الناتج توقعات العدد الحالي من تقرير آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي توقعات عدد إبريل 2007 من تقرير آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي
  • 9. تحديات السياسة العالمية
    • وضع استراتيجيات موثوقة للخروج من المرحلة الراهنة ـ هناك حاجة ماسة إلى وضع خطط متوسطة الأجل لضبط أوضاع المالية العامة
    • معالجة خلل النظم المالية وإصلاحها
    • مكافحة البطالة
    • إدارة التدفقات الرأسمالية
  • 10. بلدان MENAP المصدرة للنفط البلدان المصدرة للنفط : النقاط الأساسية أفغانستان باكستان إيران العراق المملكة العربية السعودية اليمن عمان قطر البحرين الكويت السودان ليبيا الجزائر المغرب موريتانيا لبنان سوريا الأردن تونس جيبوتي مصر الإمارات العربية المتحدة الضعة الغربية وغزة
  • 11. البلدان المصدرة للنفط : النقاط الأساسية التعافي جارٍ ، يحركه الطلب المت زايد على النفط واستمرار السياسات الداعمة مواصلة التنشيط المالي حيثما تواف رت الموارد المالية الكافية، لد عم نشاط القطاع غير النفطي السياسة النقدية التيسيرية ملائمة للحد من ركود الائتمان الحالي ، ما لم تظهر دلائل على دخول الاقتصاد في حالة من النشاط المحموم التدفقات الرأسمالية تواصل التحسن، لكن زيادة تمييز المستثمرين بين المخاطر السيادية أمر يمكن توقعه عقب أحداث مجموعة دبي العالمية واليونان .
  • 12. ارتفاع أسعار النفط حفز تعافي الصادرات وأسواق الأسهم المحلية تجارة البضائع وأسعار النفط الخام ( بمليارات الدولارات الأمريكية ما لم يذكر خلاف ذلك ) أسواق الأسهم ( المؤشرات : أغسطس 2008 = 100) المصدر : مؤسسة Bloomberg . المصدر : صندوق النقد الدولي، وجهة إحصاءات التجارة؛ وصندوق النقد الدولي، تقرير الإحصاءات المالية الدولية . ارتفعت أسعار الأسهم، حتى بعد واقعة مجموعة دبي العالمية الصادرات تتعافي من المستويات المنخفضة التي سجلتها في مطلع عام 2009 الصادرات البحرين السعودية إيران الكويت دبي قطر أبوظبي مايو فبراير نوفمبر أغسطس مايو فبراير نوفمبر أغسطس 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 ديسمبر 2000 يوينو 2009 ديسمبر 2008 يونيو 2008 ديسمبر 2007 اليونان ال و ار د ات دبي العالمية ( النفط الخام؛ وخام برنت المؤرخ؛ وخام غرب تكساس الوسيط؛ وخام دبي الفاتح بالدولار الأمريكي للبرميل، المقياس الأيمن )
  • 13. موازين المالية العامة الكلية ستتحسن أيضا، حتى مع استمرار التنشيط المالي الإنفاق الحكومي (% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي ) ميزان المالية العامة للحكومات (% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي ) ... مع ارتفاع الإيرادات المرتبطة بالنفط المصادر : السلطات الوطنية؛ وتقديرات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي . مجلس التعاون الخليجي خارج مجلس التعاون الخليجي بلدان MENAP المصدرة للنفط مجلس التعاون الخليجي خارج مجلس التعاون الخليجي بلدان MENAP المصدرة للنفط
  • 14. يتوقع أن يستمر التعافي الاقتصادي في عام 2010 البيئة الخارجية يتوقع أن تكون مواتية لقطاع النفط القطاع غير النفطي يتوقع أن يظل قويا بدعم من السياسة التيسيرية على مستوى الاقتصاد الكلي معدلات النمو الكلية المستقبلية يتوقع أن ت ظل دون مستويات ما قبل الأزمة، ولكن ها ستكون أكثر استمرارية المصادر : السلطات الوطنية؛ وتقديرات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي . إجمالي الناتج المحلي النفطي إجمالي الناتج المحلي غير النفطي نمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي الحقيقي (%) نمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي غير النفطي (%) بلدان MENAP المصدرة للنفط
  • 15. يتوقع أن تتحسن الموازين الخارجية ... مع ارتفاع أسعار النفط وإنتاج النفط الخام في 2010 موازين الحساب الجاري ( بمليارات الدولارات الأمريكية ما لم يذكر خلاف ذلك ) المصدر : السلطات الوطنية؛ وتقديرات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي . مجلس التعاون الخليجي خارج مجلس التعاون الخليجي البلدان المصدرة للنفط متوسط سعر النفط الخام ( المقياس الأيمن، بالدولار الأمريكي لمليارات البراميل )
  • 16. عدم اليقين الذي يحيط ب أسعار النفط في المستقبل توقعات أسعار نفط غرب تكساس الوسيط 1 ( بالدولار الأمريكي للبرميل ) المصادر : مؤسسة Bloomberg ؛ وحسابات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي . 1 مشتقة من أسعار خيارات المستقبليات بتاريخ 17 مايو 2010. فترة الثقة 95% فترة الثقة 86% فترة الثقة 68% ال عقود الآجلة نوفمبر 2010 إبريل 2012 سبتمبر 2011 فبراير 2011 يوليو 2010 ديسمبر 2009 مايو 2009 أكتوبر 2008 مارس 2008 أغسطس 2007 يناير 2007
  • 17. شوائب في الأفق : تباطؤ النمو الائتماني في مرحلة ما بعد الأزمة ... و التضخم لا يبعث على القلق بوجه عام المصادر : السلطات الوطنية نمو الائتمان والودائع 1 ( معدلات نمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي مرجح ة حسب تعادل القوى الشرائية على أساس سنوي مقارن، %) حدث تباطؤ كبير في النمو الائتماني المصادر : السلطات الوطنية؛ وصندوق النقد الدولي، تقرير الإحصاءات المالية الدولية . 1 عدا إيران والعراق وليبيا نظرا ل نقص البيانات . التضخم ( مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين، النمو على أساس سنوي مقارن، %) الائتمان المقدم للقطاع الخاص الودائع ليبيا اليمن الكويت الإمارات العراق السودان إيران السعودية البحرين عمان يناير 2010 نوفمبر 2009 سبتمبر 2009 يوليو 2009 مايو 2009 مارس 2009 يناير 2009 ديسمبر 2009 يونيو 2009 ديسمبر 2008 يونيو 2008 ديسمبر 2007
  • 18. من المرجح أن يستمر تباطؤ النمو الائتماني الأنماط التارخية تشير إلى فترات مطولة من التباطؤ الائتماني عقب فترات الرواج المصادر : صندوق النقد الدولي، تقرير الإحصاءات المالية الدولية؛ وحسابات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي . ملحوظة : المتوسط غير المرجح لنمو الائتمان الحقيقي خلال سنوات الطفرات المحددة بين عامي 1983 و 2008. وتم خفض الائتمان باستخدام مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين . وتشير المساحة المظللة إلى سنة الرواج . الائتمان الحقيقي المحيط بفترات الرواج الائتماني ( التغير %) أرباع العام الوسيط التاريخي الرواج الائتماني في السعودية عام 2008 الرواج الائتماني في الإمارات عام 2008 نمو الائتمان الحقيقي ( على أساس سنوي مقارن )
  • 19. التدفقات الرأسمالية : الانتعاش والركود والتعافي الجزئي الإصدارات الدولية ( بمليارات الدولارات الأمريكية ) ... في حين بدأ ت ا لإصدارات الدولية ت شهد تحسنا ، متركزة في ال سندات و في منطقة الخليج زيادة كبيرة في التدفقات الداخلة إلى الخليج حتى عام 2007 ، تبعها تحول في مسار التدفقات غير المرتبطة بالاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر على وجه الخصوص ... المصادر : صندوق النقد الدولي، تقرير آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي التدفقات الرأسمالية (% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي ) أدى حدث مجموعة دبي العالمية إلى إرباك إصدار السندات الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر الموجه للداخل التغير في التزامات استثمار الحافظة وغيرها من الالتزامات الاستثمارية بلدان MENAP المصدرة للنفط الاقتصادات الصاعدة والنامية بلدان MENAP المصدرة للنفط الأسهم القروض المصرفية المجمعة السندات الخارجية مجموع إصدارات الأسواق الصاعدة ( المقياس الأيمن )
  • 20. بلدان MENAP المستوردة للنفط البلدان المستوردة للنفط : النقاط الأساسية أفغانستان باكستان إيران العراق المملكة العربية السعودية اليمن Oman قطر البحرين الكويت السودان ليبيا الجزائر المغرب موريتانيا لبنان سوريا الأردن تونس جيبوتي مصر الإمارات العربية المتحدة الضفة الغربية وغزة
  • 21. البلدان المستوردة للنفط : النقاط الأساسية المنطقة تواصل بخطى بطيئة مسيرة التعافي من هبوط النشاط الاقتصادي في العام الماضي
    • التجارة في ازدياد مع الارتداد الإيجابي العالمي
    • الاستثمار والائتمان المصرفي لا يزالان في مستويات منخفضة
    هناك عقبات أمام النمو في المستقبل و الحيز المتاح للتنشيط المالي يزداد ضيقا
    • استمرار ضعف الطلب في الاتحاد الأوروبي والمنافسة من الاقتصادات الصاعدة الأخرى
    • الحكومات التي تواجه ديونا مرتفعة سيتعين عليها الحد من توسع المالية ا لعامة
    • تضخم مرتفع في بعض البلدان
    ينبغي أن يتحول تركيز السياسات نحو جدول أعمال الإصلاحات الهيكلية متوسطة الأجل
    • رفع معدلات النمو وإنشاء فرص ال عمل يعودان إلى بؤرة الاهتمام من جديد
    • تطوير أسواق رأس المال يمكن أن يساعد على تنشيط الائتمان والاستثمار
    • الإصلاحات الهيكلية مطلب أساسي لتحسين القدرة التنافسية
  • 22. التجارة الدولية تواصل التحسن ... ال مقبوضات الخارجية ( بمليارات الدولارات الأمريكية ) التجارة السلعية بالدولارات الأمريكية 1 ( التغير السنوي % للمتوسط المتحرك على مدى ثلاثة شهور ) المصادر : السلطات الوطنية؛ ومؤسسة Haver Analytics . 1 مصر والأردن ولبنان والمغرب وباكستان وتونس . المصادر : صندوق النقد الدولي، تقرير آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي؛ والسلطات الوطنية؛ وتقديرات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي . 1 عدا أفغانستان وموريتانيا وباكستان 2 عدا أفغانستان وجيبوتي ولكن التوسع سيكون بطيئا، نظرا لمستوى الصادرات والاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر الذي لا يزال أقل بكثير مما كان عليه في عام 2008 ت واصل التجارة تحسنها عقب الهبوط الحاد الذي شهدته أثناء الأزمة العالمية ديسمبر 2009 يونيو 2009 ديسمبر 2008 يونيو 2008 ديسمبر 2007 الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر الودائع 2 عائدات السياحة 1 صادرات السلع توقعات الصادرات الواردات
  • 23. ... وعاودت الأسواق المالية ارتفاعها فروق العائد على السندات السيادية ( بنقط الأساس ) مؤشرات أسواق الأسهم ( أول يناير 2007 = 100) المصدر : مؤسسة Bloomberg . المصدر : مؤسسة Bloomberg . 2 مؤشر Morgan Stanley International للأسواق الصاعدة . ضاقت فروق العائد على السندات على مد ار العام الماضي؛ ولا يزال تأثير أزمة اليونان محدودا حتى الآن ارتفعت أسعار الأسهم، لكنها لا تزال دون المستويات المرتفعة السابقة، عدا في تونس . مارس 2010 ديسمبر 2009 سبتمبر 2009 يونيو 2009 مارس 2009 يناير 2009 MSCI 1 تونس باكستان المغرب لبنان الأردن مصر مصر المغرب EMBIG لبنان تونس باكستان ( المقياس الأيمن ) النطاقات منذ أول يناير 2007 آخر الأرقام (16 مايو 2010)
  • 24. غير أن الائتمان و تدفقات رؤوس الأموال الداخلة لا تزال بطيئة الإصدارات الدولية ( بمليارات الدولارات الأمريكية ) الائتمان المصرفي المقدم للقطاع الخاص ( النمو على أساس سنوي مقارن، %) المصدر : مؤسسة Dealogic . المصدر : السلطات الوطنية وحسابات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي . وكانت عودة التدفقات الرأسمالية إلى المنطقة بطيئة ولا تزال ا لأسهم متأخرة سجل النمو الائتماني تراجعا حادا في عدة بلدان بلدان MENAP المستوردة للنفط تونس باكستان المغرب لبنان الأردن مصر جيبوتي الأسهم القروض المصرفية المجمعة السندات الخارجية مجموع إصدارات الأسواق الصاعدة ( المقياس الأيمن ) فبراير 2010 يونيو 2008
  • 25. معدلات النمو في ارتفاع ولكنها أقل من معدلات الأسواق الصاعدة الأخرى المنطقة تحقق ارتدادا إيجابيا، ولكن ه أقل من المحقق في المناطق المناظرة المصدر : السلطات الوطنية؛ وتقديرات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي . نمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي الحقيقي (%) بلدان MENAP المستوردة للنفط الأسواق الصاعدة والنامية الاقتصادات المتقدمة
  • 26. أوثق الروابط التجارية مع أوروبا هي القائمة مع بلدان المغرب العربي حصة أوروبا من مجموع ال صادرات ال سلعية ، 2009 (%) المصادر : إحصاءات وجهة التجارة، صندوق النقد الدولي . ليبيا تونس المغرب الجزائر أزربيجان أرمينيا كازاخستان جورجيا مصر موريتانيا سوريا تركمانستان العراق باكستان إيران طاجيكستان لبنان قطر جيبوتي السعودية أوزبكستان الكويت أفغانستان الإمارات الأردن جمهوريةقيرغيزستان عمان البحرين السودان اليمن
  • 27. المجال محدود أمام مزيد من التنشيط المالي عن طريق السياسات باكستان مصر الضغوط التضخمية تزداد في عدة بلدان، مما يحد من مساحة التصرف أمام السياسة النقدية ارتفاع مستويات الدين العام تقيد خيارات سياسة المالية العامة المصادر : السلطات الوطنية؛ وتقديرات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي . المصادر : السلطات الوطنية الأسعار ( التغير السنوي %) عجز المالية والدين العام (% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي ) نهاية عام 2010 مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين في بلدان MENAP المستوردة للنفط مؤشر أسعار السلع الأولية العالمية ( المقياس الأيمن ) تونس الأردن لبنان جيبوتي المغرب أفغانستان المتوسط الإقليمي
  • 28. تحديات المنافسة ت عود إلى الصدارة أداء الصادرات لا يزال دون المستوى المطلوب بيئة العمل متأخرة في معظمها المصادر : البنك الدولي؛ والمنتدى الاقتصادي العالمي . المصدر : صندوق النقد الدولي، تقرير آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي . ملحوظة : عدا البلدان المصدرة للنفط . نصيب الفرد من الصادرات (% من المتوسط العالمي ) مؤشرات التنافسية ( آخر المراتب ) قدرة تنافسية أكبر بلدان MENAP المستوردة للنفط الاقتصادات الصاعدة والنامية باكستان مصر سوريا موريتانيا متوسط بلدان MENAP المستوردة للنفط متوسط الأسواق الصاعدة والنامية تونس مؤشر القدرة التنافسية العالمية الترتيب على 134 بلدا سهولة مزاولة الأعمال ( الترتيب على 183 بلدا ) المغرب الأردن
  • 29. نُذُر البطالة تظهر بوضوح معدل البطالة والنمو 1 (%) البطالة المرتفعة تداعيات التعافي الضعيف في أوروبا
    • عنصر هيكلي مهم
    • الوظائف الحكومية ليست هي الحل
    • تراجع التوقعات بشأن الصادرات وتحويلات ال مغتربين .
    • تأثير على المعونات الإنمائية؟
    المصادر : السلطات الوطنية؛ وتقديرات خبراء صندوق النقد الدولي . 1 مصر والأردن والمغرب وتونس . معدل البطالة نمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي الحقيقي ( المقياس الأيمن )
  • 30. أولويات السياس ة
    • ينبغي أن يكون القطاع الخاص مصدر النمو وإنشاء فرص العمل
    • التركيز على تعزيز بيئة ال أعمال ومرونة أسواق العمل ونظم التعليم
    • ت وجيه سياسة المالية العامة والسياسة النقدية ل إيجاد أوضاع داعمة : تعزيز الإيرادات، وتقليص الدعم، ومعالجة مشكلة القروض المتعثرة
    • التنشيط المالي : إلى أن يستعيد نشاط القطاع الخاص قوته الدافعة
    • الدعم النقدي / السياسة التنظيمية : ال موازنة بين هدف دعم النمو الائتماني وهدف دعم الاستقرار المالي
    • التأكد من إجراء التنقية اللازمة للميزانيات العمومية المصرفية بسلاسة ويسر : إثبات الخسائر في بداية الفترة وإعادة رسملة البنوك حسب الحاجة
    تطوير أسواق رأس المال لإتاحة بدائل للائتمان المصرفي إصلاحات هيكلية لتحسين القدرة التنافسية البلدان المستوردة للنفط الحفاظ على التنشيط المالي والنقدي حسبما تسمح الأوضاع البلدان المصدرة للنفط
  • 31. يرجى زيارة الموقع الإلكتروني لصندوق النقد الدولي التقرير الكامل : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ ft/reo/2010/MCD/eng/mreo0510.htm ما رأيك؟ ا شرح وجهة نظرك في المدونات ذات الصلة : http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org