Mreo1024 menap


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Mreo1024 menap

  1. 1. Regional Economic OutlookFall 2010<br />Syria<br />Tunisia<br />Lebanon<br />Afghanistan<br />Iran<br />Iraq<br />Morocco<br />Pakistan<br />Jordan<br />Kuwait<br />Algeria<br />Saudi Arabia<br />Libya<br />Bahrain<br />Egypt<br />United Arab Emirates<br />Qatar<br />Oman<br />Mauritania<br />Yemen<br />Sudan<br />Djibouti<br />
  2. 2. Global outlook: Two-speed recovery in motion<br />Real GDP Growth<br />(percent change from a year earlier)<br />Temporary slow-down<br />2010:H2 — 2011:H1<br />Emerging economies<br />World<br />Advanced economies<br />2000<br />02<br />04<br />10<br />06<br />08<br />
  3. 3. A closer look at the two-speed recovery<br />Real GDP Growth<br />(percent change from a year earlier)<br />3<br />
  4. 4. Downside risks remain, but global double-dip unlikely<br />Prospects for World GDP Growth<br />(percent change)<br />4<br />
  5. 5. Rebalancing is needed along two dimensions<br />Demand from external surplus economies <br />Demand from external deficit economies<br />Private demand<br />Public<br />demand<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Inflationary pressures are forecast to remain subdued <br />Core Inflation<br />(Twelve-month change in the core CPI)<br />For countries with a peg to the USD or euro, this means that higher inflation rates may lead to real appreciation.<br />06<br />2002<br />04<br />08<br />Jul.10<br />6<br />
  7. 7. Oil demand is accelerating with the broadening of the global recovery but supply buffers are still substantial<br />Oil Demand Growth<br />(contributions to y-o-y growth in percent)<br />Total demand<br />7<br />
  8. 8. Temporary Wheat Supply Shock, Limited Spillovers<br />Major Food Crops, Nearest Futures Prices <br />(index, Jul. 1, 2010 = 100)<br />Wheat<br />Corn<br />8<br />
  9. 9. Capital flows to emerging markets pick up<br />Net Monthly Flows to Emerging Market Equity Funds<br />(billions of U.S. dollars)<br />Net Monthly Flows to Emerging Market Bond Funds<br />(billions of U.S. dollars)<br />Sep. 10<br />Sep. 10<br />9<br />
  10. 10. MENAP Oil Exporters<br />Iran<br />Iraq<br />Kuwait<br />Algeria<br />Saudi Arabia<br />Libya<br />Bahrain<br />United Arab Emirates<br />Qatar<br />Oman<br />Yemen<br />Sudan<br />
  11. 11. Overview — Oil Exporters<br />
  12. 12. Global demand recovers, boosts activity<br />Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.<br />MENAP Oil Exporters<br />
  13. 13. …and external balances rebound <br />$257<br />$107<br />$124<br />$101<br />$75<br />$31<br />$23<br />$5<br />-$7<br />-$7<br />-$6<br />-$10<br />Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.<br />MENAP Oil Exporters<br />
  14. 14. …as do fiscal balances <br />Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.<br />MENAP Oil Exporters<br />
  15. 15. Some countries continue to provide stimulus<br />Percent change in total government expenditures in U.S. dollars(From 2008 to 2011)<br />Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.<br />MENAP Oil Exporters<br />
  16. 16. Many countries approaching break-even prices<br />Average oil price in 2010<br />Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.<br />MENAP Oil Exporters<br />
  17. 17. Keep an eye on inflation<br />Source: National authorities.<br />1Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, and Oman<br />MENAP Oil Exporters<br />
  18. 18. Financial sectors after the crisis (December 2009)<br />Source: National authorities.<br />1December 2008<br />MENAP Oil Exporters<br />
  19. 19. Policy priorities<br />MENAP Oil Exporters<br />
  20. 20. MENAP Oil Importers<br />Syria<br />Tunisia<br />Lebanon<br />Afghanistan<br />Morocco<br />Pakistan<br />Jordan<br />Egypt<br />Mauritania<br />Djibouti<br />
  21. 21. Overview — Oil Importers<br />
  22. 22. Trade recovery is moving ahead<br />Annual percent change of U.S. dollar value, 3-month moving average<br />Region’s exports are again growing steadily<br />Sources: National authorities; IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; and Haver Analytics.¹ Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. <br />MENAP Oil Importers<br />
  23. 23. Real GDP picking up across region<br />Annual percentage change<br />2011<br />Source: National Authorities; and IMF staff estimates.<br />MENAP Oil Importers<br />
  24. 24. Progress in fiscal consolidation<br />Source: National Authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.<br />MENAP Oil Importers<br />
  25. 25. Most can maintain current monetary stance<br />Consumer Prices; annual percentage change<br />Aug-10<br />Sources: Haver Analytics; and national authorities.<br />MENAP Oil Importers<br />
  26. 26. More than 18 million jobs needed<br />Dominique Strauss-Kahn:<br />“We must not underestimate the daunting prospects we face: a lost generation, disconnected from the labor market, with a progressive loss of skills and motivation.”<br />AFP/ABDELHAK SENNA/Getty Images. Reprinted with permission. <br />(Unemployed workers wait for a job in the BaniMakada quarter of Tangiers, Morocco on March 20, 2004.)<br />MENAP Oil Importers<br />
  27. 27. High unemployment a long-standing issue<br />Sources: National authorities; IMF, World Economic Outlook; staff estimates; and International Labor Organization.<br />Note: MENA6 refers to Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia. Youth unemployment estimate for MENA6 excludes Jordan. Data refers to 2008 or latest available year.<br />MENAP Oil Importers<br />
  28. 28. Growth and export gaps: getting bigger<br />Goods exports<br />(in percent of GDP)<br />Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook.<br />MENAP Oil Importers<br />
  29. 29. Competitiveness will need to improve<br />Competitiveness Rankings, 2010–11¹ <br />Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report, 2010–11.<br />¹Economies are ranked from 1 to 139, with first place being the best. MENAP oil importers is a simple average ofEgypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Syria, and Tunisia. Emerging Asia is simple average of China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China, Thailand, and Vietnam. <br />MENAP Oil Importers<br />
  30. 30. Broader Partnerships<br />Real GDP trends, annual percent change<br />Asia<br />Latin America<br />Advanced<br />economies<br />15<br />05<br />85<br />95<br />10<br />90<br />2000<br />1980<br />Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.<br />Note: 1980-2015 real GDP growth data are de-trended as 10-year backward rolling averages.<br />MENAP Oil Importers<br />
  31. 31. Policy priorities<br />MENAP Oil Importers<br />