Twitter: #iMediaSummit
Friday, February 7, 14

1
February 10, 2014

Follow the Money

Presented by
Geoffrey Ramsey
Chairman, Founder
@geofframsey
Friday, February 7, 14

2
WARNING!
782 data sources
383 builds
50 slides

Friday, February 7, 14

3
About the numbers you are about to see

8.9%
8
2.4

Friday, February 7, 14

$5.6B

4
The eMarketer process
• Reported revenues from major ad-selling companies;
• Data from “benchmark” sources, including quar...
Friday, February 7, 14

6
The Twitter Story
Estimated
Revenue

$545

Twitter WW Ad Revenue for 2013 (millions)

2% margin
of error
$583

2013
actual...
Yes, total media spending will
continue to rise in 2014...
$187.3
63% of marketers plan to

cut spend on traditional
media...
Digital will grow nearly 13% this year

%
0
4

27.0%

31.7%

US
of
are
sh
al $
git
di

Friday, February 7, 14

9
13% growth
in 2014???

But that’s not the big story.

Friday, February 7, 14

10
Desktopocalypse???

Are we reaching the “End of Days” for our
desktop-centric ad ecosystem???
Friday, February 7, 14

11
$36B

in mobile
ads

Friday, February 7, 14

12
Desktop ad business

Friday, February 7, 14

What I am NOT saying...

13
Mobile ad spending is on a tear

8X

Friday, February 7, 14

14
Mobile’s slice of the digital ad spending pie
= 12% in 2012
= 22.5% in 2013

Source: eMarketer, 2014
Friday, February 7, 1...
$36B

in mobile
ads

= 57% of the digital
pie in 2017

Mobile
= >1/2

Source: eMarketer, 2014
Friday, February 7, 14

16
What you may be thinking...
“Sponsored”

“Stupid”

$36B
“Stoned”

Friday, February 7, 14

in mobile
ads

“Screwy”

17
8 Reasons To Believe
Mobile Ad Spending
Will Eclipse Desktop by
2017
Friday, February 7, 14

18
#1. Mobile devices
have moved to the
center of
consumers’
multi-platform
universe ...

Social Machines
Social Machines 

A...
... they’ve
become the
remote
control for
our lives

Friday, February 7, 14

20
#2. Smartphone and tablet
penetration are ramping up

eMarketer	
  (year	
  end	
  2014)

Friday, February 7, 14

50%
21
% of population on smartphones, by
age group (2014)
Total
Under 11
12 - 17
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65+

50...
In 2017, two-thirds are on smartphones
Total
Under 11
12 - 17
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65+

64%

64%
6%

73...
Nearly 1/2 of the population will use a
tablet by 2017

Friday, February 7, 14

24
#3. Smartphone and tablet adoption
have brought us to a new inflection
point in terms of time spent

2 hours 21 minutes
19...
Time spent in hours: minutes

4:31
TV
(38%)

~1/2
2:21

5:16
Total
Digital
(45%)

Mobile

Friday, February 7, 14

26
Millward Brown and Dynamics
Logic

Nielsen

MAGNAGLOBAL

USC Annenberg School Center for the Digital Future
Gfk MRI

Exper...
With mobile: being online has become a
persistent, anywhere state

Some of you have
Mobile users check
their that within t...
#4. Mobile is now ~20% of Web traffic and
search volume

40%
mobile

1/5

Sources:
Web traffic: comScore; StatCounter;
Ado...
#5. Mobile commerce is exploding
m-commerce sales
(and as a % of total ecommerce)

$41.7 B

16%
2013

2.7X

$113.6 B

26%
...
Smartphone impact goes way beyond
direct sales
$15 B*

58% influenced by ads

$139 $159 B**

Sources:
*eMarketer, 2013;
**...
When consumers were asked in a survey,
“What is your primary device for
opening marketing emails?”...

35% said
desktop

6...
#6. Marketers are pumped for mobile
Survey: Most Exciting Digital Opportunities in 2013,
according to Companies Worldwide
...
#7. The tech titans are all going mobile

%
9
4

ide
ldw
or
w
Friday, February 7, 14

34
Net US Google display ad revenues
Desktop

$4

$3.70

Mobile
$2.88

$3
$2.33

$2

$2.18

$1.94
$1.24

$1

$0.66
$0.31

$0
...
% of advertising revenue coming
from mobile in Q4, 2013

53%
Friday, February 7, 14

72%

75%
36
#8. Social media is increasingly
becoming a mobile activity

69%

ep
xc
E

Friday, February 7, 14

on
ti

of social users
...
US digital users spend 1:10 (hr:mins)
per day on social media
#2 activity,
after email*

29%
29%

19%
Source: eMarketer, 2...
Ad spending on social networks is
also on the rise Social media = 12% of
total digital ad spend

Fueled partly by:

69%
Fr...
67% of US internet users go to any
social network
CreditDonkey........... 44%
Broadcom................ 31%
InSites Consult...
Video ad spending will continue to see
70% of senior ad-buying
double-digit growth
execs plan to move some of
their TV dol...
For each year (2014 - 2017), net additional TV
$s will exceed net additional digital video $s

In 2014...
$2.2

$68.5
6%
T...
Mobile
1. Improvements in mobile measurement––including
ability to integrate mobile and assign attribution
2. Advancement ...
Look for programmatic buying to rapidly
spread through mobile, social and video
US Digital Real-Time Bidding
Display Ad Sp...
Final
advice.

Friday, February 7, 14

45
Admit if you
have a
problem.
43%
“Poorly
Integrated”

46%
“Improving”

Friday, February 7, 14

46
Mobile is the
least
integrated

Friday, February 7, 14

47
Get on top of the data
Harvest cross-screen identities
by tapping into the streams of
data emanating from mobile,
social a...
Fight multi-tasking behavior with
multi-channel marketing

Smart use of data––across platforms––
will be the only way to k...
“Thank You”

Geoffrey Ramsey
Chairman, Co-Founder
geoff@emarketer.com

Friday, February 7, 14

#iMediaSummit
@geofframsey
...
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Host Introduction: “State of the Industry: Follow the Money”

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Host Introduction: “State of the Industry: Follow the Money”

  1. 1. Twitter: #iMediaSummit Friday, February 7, 14 1
  2. 2. February 10, 2014 Follow the Money Presented by Geoffrey Ramsey Chairman, Founder @geofframsey Friday, February 7, 14 2
  3. 3. WARNING! 782 data sources 383 builds 50 slides Friday, February 7, 14 3
  4. 4. About the numbers you are about to see 8.9% 8 2.4 Friday, February 7, 14 $5.6B 4
  5. 5. The eMarketer process • Reported revenues from major ad-selling companies; • Data from “benchmark” sources, including quarterly reports from the IAB & PwC; • Estimates from primary research firms, investment banks, independent analysts, agency forecast units; • Consumer internet and mobile usage trends; • Surveys among marketers, publishers, etc; • eMarketer interviews with executives at ad agencies, brands, publishers and other leaders Friday, February 7, 14 5
  6. 6. Friday, February 7, 14 6
  7. 7. The Twitter Story Estimated Revenue $545 Twitter WW Ad Revenue for 2013 (millions) 2% margin of error $583 2013 actual $595 $500 $250 Aug 2012 Friday, February 7, 14 Feb 2013 Time Feb 5 2014 7
  8. 8. Yes, total media spending will continue to rise in 2014... $187.3 63% of marketers plan to cut spend on traditional media in order to fund digital efforts If you strip out digital, 1% 2007 Friday, February 7, 14 8
  9. 9. Digital will grow nearly 13% this year % 0 4 27.0% 31.7% US of are sh al $ git di Friday, February 7, 14 9
  10. 10. 13% growth in 2014??? But that’s not the big story. Friday, February 7, 14 10
  11. 11. Desktopocalypse??? Are we reaching the “End of Days” for our desktop-centric ad ecosystem??? Friday, February 7, 14 11
  12. 12. $36B in mobile ads Friday, February 7, 14 12
  13. 13. Desktop ad business Friday, February 7, 14 What I am NOT saying... 13
  14. 14. Mobile ad spending is on a tear 8X Friday, February 7, 14 14
  15. 15. Mobile’s slice of the digital ad spending pie = 12% in 2012 = 22.5% in 2013 Source: eMarketer, 2014 Friday, February 7, 14 15
  16. 16. $36B in mobile ads = 57% of the digital pie in 2017 Mobile = >1/2 Source: eMarketer, 2014 Friday, February 7, 14 16
  17. 17. What you may be thinking... “Sponsored” “Stupid” $36B “Stoned” Friday, February 7, 14 in mobile ads “Screwy” 17
  18. 18. 8 Reasons To Believe Mobile Ad Spending Will Eclipse Desktop by 2017 Friday, February 7, 14 18
  19. 19. #1. Mobile devices have moved to the center of consumers’ multi-platform universe ... Social Machines Social Machines Ambient Surfaces Desktop PCs Laptop PCs Connected TVs Connected Cars Smartphones Tablets Wearable Technology Connected Connected Consoles Consoles ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Friday, February 7, 14 19
  20. 20. ... they’ve become the remote control for our lives Friday, February 7, 14 20
  21. 21. #2. Smartphone and tablet penetration are ramping up eMarketer  (year  end  2014) Friday, February 7, 14 50% 21
  22. 22. % of population on smartphones, by age group (2014) Total Under 11 12 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ 50% 50.1% 3.8% 51.4% 75.9% 79.1% 76.8% 59.9% 53.4% 19% 0% 40% 80% Source: eMarketer, 2014 Friday, February 7, 14 22
  23. 23. In 2017, two-thirds are on smartphones Total Under 11 12 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ 64% 64% 6% 73% 94% 93% 92% 82% 74% 25% 0% 50% 100% Source: eMarketer, 2014 Friday, February 7, 14 23
  24. 24. Nearly 1/2 of the population will use a tablet by 2017 Friday, February 7, 14 24
  25. 25. #3. Smartphone and tablet adoption have brought us to a new inflection point in terms of time spent 2 hours 21 minutes 19.4% of daily media time 2 hours 19 minutes 19.2% of daily media time Source: eMarketer, July 2013 ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Friday, February 7, 14 25
  26. 26. Time spent in hours: minutes 4:31 TV (38%) ~1/2 2:21 5:16 Total Digital (45%) Mobile Friday, February 7, 14 26
  27. 27. Millward Brown and Dynamics Logic Nielsen MAGNAGLOBAL USC Annenberg School Center for the Digital Future Gfk MRI Experian Simmons Donald W. Reynolds Journalism Institute (RJI) at the University of Missouri Yankee Group ~1/2 Adobe/Keynote Systems BabyCenter Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) The Media Audit Ipsos Mendelsohn GroupM Friday, February 7, 14 Syncapse McKinsey & Company Arbitron Mobile Terra Networks and comScore Chinet Moosylvania Deloitte Frand N. Magid Associates Credit Suisse Barkley Fleishman-Hillard Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) Gfk Interpret Yahoo! and Interpret Temkin Group Tremor Media Google and Sterling Brands Forrester Research Council for Research Excellence Hitwise Mobile comScore Online Publisher Association (OPA) Edison Research Nielsen and BabyCenter LLC Zokem The Diffusion Group InMobi and Mobext 27
  28. 28. With mobile: being online has become a persistent, anywhere state Some of you have Mobile users check their that within the done phones 100X daily past 10 minutes Source: Mobile Posse and Phoenix Marketing International, 2013 Friday, February 7, 14 28
  29. 29. #4. Mobile is now ~20% of Web traffic and search volume 40% mobile 1/5 Sources: Web traffic: comScore; StatCounter; Adobe (pageviews), 2013; Paid search click share on Google: The Search Agency, 2013; US search clicks: Kenshoo, 2013 Friday, February 7, 14 29
  30. 30. #5. Mobile commerce is exploding m-commerce sales (and as a % of total ecommerce) $41.7 B 16% 2013 2.7X $113.6 B 26% 2017 eMarketer, Sept, 2014 Friday, February 7, 14 30
  31. 31. Smartphone impact goes way beyond direct sales $15 B* 58% influenced by ads $139 $159 B** Sources: *eMarketer, 2013; **MMA; Deloitte Digital, 2013 Friday, February 7, 14 31
  32. 32. When consumers were asked in a survey, “What is your primary device for opening marketing emails?”... 35% said desktop 65% said smartphones or tablets Source: Moveable Ink, Q4, 2013 ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Friday, February 7, 14 32
  33. 33. #6. Marketers are pumped for mobile Survey: Most Exciting Digital Opportunities in 2013, according to Companies Worldwide 0% Content Marketing Targeting & Personalization Social Media Engagement Mobile Optimization % of US Marketers Planning to Increase their Mobile Spend 15% 64% 67% 69% 70% 74% 79% 85% ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 30% Advertiser Perceptions Econsultancy 30% Nielsen and Vizu Ignition One 35% IAB and Ovum Technorati Media 35% ANA 45% 43% 43% of B2B marketers Friday, February 7, 14 Source: Econsultancy and Adobe, Jan, 2013 33
  34. 34. #7. The tech titans are all going mobile % 9 4 ide ldw or w Friday, February 7, 14 34
  35. 35. Net US Google display ad revenues Desktop $4 $3.70 Mobile $2.88 $3 $2.33 $2 $2.18 $1.94 $1.24 $1 $0.66 $0.31 $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 eMarketer, December 2013 Friday, February 7, 14 35
  36. 36. % of advertising revenue coming from mobile in Q4, 2013 53% Friday, February 7, 14 72% 75% 36
  37. 37. #8. Social media is increasingly becoming a mobile activity 69% ep xc E Friday, February 7, 14 on ti of social users access social networks on their phones 37
  38. 38. US digital users spend 1:10 (hr:mins) per day on social media #2 activity, after email* 29% 29% 19% Source: eMarketer, 2013; *Deloitte, Nov, 2013 Friday, February 7, 14 38
  39. 39. Ad spending on social networks is also on the rise Social media = 12% of total digital ad spend Fueled partly by: 69% Friday, February 7, 14 39
  40. 40. 67% of US internet users go to any social network CreditDonkey........... 44% Broadcom................ 31% InSites Consulting... 25% Facebook Reuters.................... Hub Research.......... 23% 26% GlobalWebIndex....... 20% Pew......................22% 22% Pinterest* 17% Instagram* 15% Twitter 6% Tumblr* 0% Friday, February 7, 14 60% comScore................. 19% 20% Broadcom................ Pew........................... 18% 15% Hub Research.......... Allstate Corp............ 16% 14% GlobaWebIndex....... eMarketer................. 15% Epsilon...................... 8% 30% 60% Source: eMarketer, 2013; *Pew Internet & American Life, Dec, 2013 40
  41. 41. Video ad spending will continue to see 70% of senior ad-buying double-digit growth execs plan to move some of their TV dollars to digital ––IAB, 2013 27% of digital display $s ??? = 1/5 of digital video ad spend Friday, February 7, 14 41
  42. 42. For each year (2014 - 2017), net additional TV $s will exceed net additional digital video $s In 2014... $2.2 $68.5 6% TV Friday, February 7, 14 11% $1.64 $5.8 Digital Video 42
  43. 43. Mobile 1. Improvements in mobile measurement––including ability to integrate mobile and assign attribution 2. Advancement of Geo-targeting capabilities “Exchanges, Trading Desks and bidding for audiences recognizes that 3. Growth in Native Advertising movement––which is marketers want to reach audiences, rather than underwrite space.” expanding rapidly in mobile, e.g., Facebook, Twitter, ––Rishad etc BuzzFeed, Tobaccowala, Chairman of DigitasLBi and Razorfish 4. Programmatic buying is moving fast towards mobile Friday, February 7, 14 43
  44. 44. Look for programmatic buying to rapidly spread through mobile, social and video US Digital Real-Time Bidding Display Ad Spending (in billions) 85% of advertisers* $9.0 72% of publishers** $8.72 $6.64 % Growth JMP....................... 50% IDC....................... 49% eMarketer........ 43% JP Morgan............ 49% $1.92 2012 $3.39 2013 $4.86 22% 28% of display spend $4.5 of display spend 2014 $6.8 $2.3 2015 $0 2016 Sources: eMarketer, 2014; *IAB and Winterberry Group, 2013; **IAB; OPA, 2013 Friday, February 7, 14 44
  45. 45. Final advice. Friday, February 7, 14 45
  46. 46. Admit if you have a problem. 43% “Poorly Integrated” 46% “Improving” Friday, February 7, 14 46
  47. 47. Mobile is the least integrated Friday, February 7, 14 47
  48. 48. Get on top of the data Harvest cross-screen identities by tapping into the streams of data emanating from mobile, social and video activities Think of it as an antidote to fragmentation! ©2013 eMarketer Inc. Friday, February 7, 14 48
  49. 49. Fight multi-tasking behavior with multi-channel marketing Smart use of data––across platforms–– will be the only way to keep up with rising consumer expectations. By ensuring consistent messaging and offer availability across every channel, you can provide consumers with multiple options in terms of their entry point into the purchase process. ©2013 eMarketer Inc. Friday, February 7, 14 49
  50. 50. “Thank You” Geoffrey Ramsey Chairman, Co-Founder geoff@emarketer.com Friday, February 7, 14 #iMediaSummit @geofframsey 50

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