Cracking the Code of Human Behavior

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  • Add four elements and fly in Napoleon’s face and the quote
  • Add four elements and fly in Napoleon’s face and the quote

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  • 1. Cracking the Code of HumanBehaviorDan Hill, Ph.D. – President, Sensory LogicAustin, TX; May 7, 2013iMedia Agency Summit© 2013. All Rights Reserved.
  • 2. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.WHAT’S BIG DATA’S TRUE SCOPE?Part 1
  • 3. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.3How Big Is“Big Data”?
  • 4. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Big Volume - Sources– Information captured bysensors4• Extremely large datasets generatedfrom technology practices, such as:– Social media activityreports– Mobile phone calldetail records– Operational technology– Web server logs– Internet clickstream data– Streaming sourcesBIG DATA
  • 5. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.5How Small Is“Big Data”?How Small Is “BigData”?
  • 6. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Irrational Rationality . . .6
  • 7. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.7How Is “BigData” Big & SmallAt The SameTime?
  • 8. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Moving Beyond Won’t or Can’t Say895% of mental activity issubconscious.What % of mental activity issubconscious?Thoughts &Self-reportedFeelingsClaims/TextIntuitiveEmotionsImagery/SoundsRetail CuesProduct UsagePersuasion &Loyalty
  • 9. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.SENSE – FEEL – think- DO9©Sensory Logic 2012
  • 10. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Irrational Rationality . . . Limited DataNeed more data points to make the right decision10
  • 11. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Testing Issues71% 44%01020304050607080Not Pre-tested Pre-testedEffectiveness Success Rate %“Cases with favorable pre-testing resultsdid significantly worse in marketthan those that were not tested.”Binet and Field,Marketing in the Era of Accountability, 2007
  • 12. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Step Closer… Step Ahead.sensory emotivenon-verbalconsciousverbalrationalsubconsciousrationalverbalconsciousTraditional Economics Behavioral Economicsvs.
  • 13. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.QUANTIFYING EMOTIONS:FACIAL CODINGPart 2
  • 14. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.14How Can “BigData” BeBigger, As InMore On Target?
  • 15. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.The Future of Marketing15InformationTalking PointsOn-Message On-EmotionFeeling PointsSatisfaction20th Century 21st Century
  • 16. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Mona Lisa16
  • 17. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Mona Lisa17
  • 18. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.History of Facial Coding1872• Scientific Theory:Charles Darwin– Universal– Spontaneous– Abundant• Theory Refined:Paul Ekman, Ph.D.– 43 facial muscles,express universal coreemotions• Business Inventor:Dan Hill, Ph.D.– Pioneer in using facialcoding to createemotional metrics– U.S. Patent PortfolioScience Psychology Business1965 1998
  • 19. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.History of Facial Coding20052009-2011Which tool will have the most transformativeimpact on MR?“The reviewers felt that neurosciencesuggests that neurological methods(fMRI)and facial coding are best suitedto assess the emotional valence ofviewer reactions”- The ARF NeuroStandardsCollaboration Project20112010
  • 20. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Sales Correlation to Super Bowl TV SpotsElectroencephalography (EEG)Facial CodingUSA Today .0003EEG .232Facial Coding .6112Seventeen automotive TV spots wereanalyzed over the past 3 years.Rating
  • 21. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.FROM IDENTITY TO EMOTIONRECOGNITIONPart 3
  • 22. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.22Facial CodingHumanizes“Big Data”
  • 23. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.CustomizationSmart Digital KioskSmart BillboardTargets Women
  • 24. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Converging Forces24
  • 25. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.FROM FLEETING TO ENDURING:PERSONALITYPart 4
  • 26. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.26Big, Deep Data:Facial Coding &Big 5 Factor
  • 27. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.The ProblemIn general, “evidence indicatesthat demographicmeasures, outside ofeducation, are not an accuratepredictor of consumer behavior.”Sales/Marketing Management (11/09)Only 15% of major companiessurveyed derive real value fromcreating segmentation typology.(Marakon 2006)Only 6% of marketers haveexcellent knowledge ofcustomers, 51% have fair to littleknowledge.(CMO Council 2008)
  • 28. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Solution: Big 5 Traits Model“Surprisingly, most marketers haveno idea how well the Big 5 canpredict consumer behavior. The Big5 predict attitudes, values, self-concepts, and motivations.”
  • 29. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Myers-Briggs Inadequate29
  • 30. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.The Elements30“The fifth element is mud.”-Napoleon Bonaparte
  • 31. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Male Version: Big 5 ExamplesOpenness Conscientiousness ExtraversionAgreeableness Neuroticism
  • 32. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Traits by State• States that voteDemocratic tend to behigher on openness andextraversion, vs.conscientiousness forRepublicansNeuroticism OpennessExtraversionSource: Gosling, Snoop: What Your Stuff Says About You
  • 33. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.White vs. Wheat Bread
  • 34. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Whole Wheat Supporters0%6%0%0%6%12%10%0%55%12%0% 50% 100%True SmileRobust SmileWeak SmileMicro SmileSurpriseSkepticalDislikeSadnessFrustrationAnxietyEmotional Profile3 – Healthy Whole Wheaters 4 – Sophisticated Whole Wheaters12%88%0%36%9%0%0%0%21%9%18%6%0% 50% 100%True SmileRobust SmileWeak SmileMicro SmileSurpriseSkepticalDislikeSadnessFrustrationAnxietyEmotional Profile45%55%The Healthy Whole Wheaters are most notable for having 2x more frustration than any other segment.Sophisticated Whole Wheaters, in contrast, are all about enjoyment.
  • 35. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.White Bread Supporters0%0%13%0%0%7%23%21%29%7%0% 50% 100%True SmileRobust SmileWeak SmileMicro SmileSurpriseSkepticalDislikeSadnessFrustrationAnxietyEmotional Profile13%87%1 – White Bread Traditionalists 2 – White Bread Neutralists0%4%15%0%1%4%39%5%27%6%0% 50% 100%True SmileRobust SmileWeak SmileMicro SmileSurpriseSkepticalDislikeSadnessFrustrationAnxietyEmotional Profile20%80%Traditionalists exhibit 2x more sadness than any of the other three segments. Meanwhile, the Neutralistsare notable for showing 1/3rd more dislike than any other segment.
  • 36. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.SUMMARYPart 5
  • 37. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Big Data: To Be Successful . . .• Walmart’s transactiondatabases – 2.5petrabytes• 40 billion Facebookphotos• Amount of digitalinformation increases 10xevery 5 years37• Walmart’s transactiondatabases – 2.5petrabytes• 40 billion Facebookphotos• Amount of digitalinformation increases 10xevery 5 years
  • 38. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.Go Deeper Than Online Behavior or Social Media Chatter38EmotionsPersonalityTraitsValuesImmediateLifetime
  • 39. © 2013. All Rights Reserved.And Then You and the Client Can Be (Really) SmilingTrue Fake Fake Fake TrueFake True Fake True FakeFake Fake True True True