Kepner Tregoe (KT) - How did the chicken

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Kepner Tregoe

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Kepner Tregoe (KT) - How did the chicken

  1. 1. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1 Clear thinking for a complex world Survive and Thrive when faced with major incidents The planning that allows you to keep calm, juggle resources, and flourish in the face of major incidents
  2. 2. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2 “System 1” versus “System 2” thinking • Two fundamental thinking modes of the brain • System 1: the “automatic system” informed by knowledge and experience • System 2: the “effortful system” used to consciously think through an issue in a systematic way • Based on the research and book “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by the Nobel-prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman • Which Thinking System are you using?
  3. 3. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3 2 x 2 = What’s the answer?
  4. 4. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4 56 x 56 = What’s the answer?
  5. 5. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5 Why thinking matters… • High-level mismanagement led to Lehman’s $600 million demise. The financial crisis triggered by this collapse is estimated to have caused indirectly the loss of 2 million jobs. • Hoover in the UK offered two free flights for every purchase over $150. The flights cost more than the products, losing the company a cool $74 million. • IBM hired Microsoft to develop an operating system for its new PC – but let them keep the rights to the software. • …and so many more…
  6. 6. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6 What we are good at… • Intuition = Recognition • Extremely important in the first few moments of an Incident or Major Incident.
  7. 7. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7 Typical “Human Errors” in thinking 1. Halo Effect: If I like some of the parts, I will like the whole (Exam Marking) 2. What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI) Effect: What you see is all there is (Gorilla video) 3. Framing Effect: The same information can be viewed favorably or unfavorably depending on how it is stated (10% Fat, 90% fat free) 4. Anchoring Effect: We can be strongly influenced by numbers and facts not really relevant to the issue. (Maximum of 6 items may be purchased by one customer) 5. Availability Bias: We don’t access all of our memories, we recall the impactful, unusual occurrences (Tornado’s versus asthma)
  8. 8. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8 When to use different approaches Criteria when System 1 is safe to use when: • The issue is simple • I have seen an issue like this many times before • The cost of being wrong is low and the consequences are acceptable Criteria when System 2 is safe to use when: • The issue is complex • I have not seen an issue like this before • The cost of being wrong is high and the consequences unacceptable • Time for repeated System 1 thinking is over • Number of trial fixes, people involved or elapsed time
  9. 9. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9 Colleagues need: • Visibility of actions taken, and to come • Shared data • A clear path to resolution Keeping everyone involved Use a shared control board Customers and Management need: • Meaningful progress reports • Reassurance • No Surprises
  10. 10. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10 Why did the chicken cross the road? • Farmer – running a dairy, arable and grain distribution business – very risk averse and wanting to minimize the kind of publicity which would distract from the business • Farmer’s wife – noticed something strange • Farmer’s son – drinking, shooting, fishing, soon to be a lorry driver • Articulated lorry driver – drives the daily run with the big lorry to get the bulk grain from afar • Local lorry driver – drives 7.5 ton lorries in the local area • Herdsman – dairy farmer • Grain Operations Manager – manages the grain business • Journalist – looking for a story… this might just become viral
  11. 11. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11 Exercise A major incident has just started (you will be blamed....) Under your seat you may have found a coloured card. Each of you has different information about the incident. Others have different coloured cards a) Find the people whose cards have different colours b) Take control, and use the available information to decide what to do You have 20 minutes (exactly 1200 seconds, not 1201...)
  12. 12. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12 Grain Storage Dairy Farmhouse Usual route of chicken
  13. 13. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19 Old trailer New trailer
  14. 14. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20 Where else can Clear Thinking assist in business? • When are you actually applying your best thinking either individually or in teams? – Leverage systematic process for problem solving, decision making, project planning and risk analysis – Different functions, business units and people speaking different languages all follow the same process – From the C-Suite to the shop floor • The outcome? – Fix problems faster – Make smarter decisions – Manage risk more effectively
  15. 15. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21 • Open an application share at the very beginning • Use simple templates to display information for all • Make rules clear to all • Run a separated management bridge • Share a dashboard to take control Call to arms...
  16. 16. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22 What questions do you have?
  17. 17. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23 N 23 Not a new process, just a better way of doing the existing processes better.
  18. 18. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2424
  19. 19. Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2525

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