Fact Sheet - Indonesia Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost Curve By Indonesia National Council On Climate Change

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  • 1. Fact sheet – Indonesia Greenhouse GasEmission Cost Curve ¶ The six sectors of forestry, agriculture, power, transportation, buildings and cement, together with peat-related emissions, account for a majority of Indonesia’s emissions in 2005 ¶ Indonesia’s 2005 emissions, estimated at 2.3 Gt CO2e, one of the largest emitters of the world. (A gigaton is equal to one billion tons.) ¶ Indonesia’s emissions are expected to grow by 2% annually reaching 2.8 Gt CO2e in 2020 and 3.6 GtCO2e in 2030 ¶ The main sources of the rising emissions come from power, transportation and peatland, with other sectors increasing only marginally or remaining constant ¶ Indonesia could potentially reduce emissions by up to 2.3 GtCO2e by 2030 through implementing over 150 reduction opportunities across the main emitting sectors ¶ Reflecting Indonesia’s emissions profile, more than 80 percent of the reduction opportunity lies in forestry, peatland and agricultureForest sector2030 – emissions: 850 MtCO2e; reduction potential: 1,100 MtCO2e ¶ Forestry accounts for 850 MtCO2e in 2005, or 38 percent of Indonesia’s total emissions. Emissions are a result of deforestation (562 MtCO2e), forest degradation (211 MtCO2e) and forest fires (77 MtCO2e). ¶ Continued current rate of deforestation and degradation of 0.8 million ha and 1 million ha respectively account for emissions of 850 MtCO2e throughout the period until 2030. (The estimate of forestry emissions do not include peat-related emissions, some of which occur in areas classified as forestry.)
  • 2. ¶ Forestry alone could provide 1,100 MtCO2e of reduction of which halting deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) would account for 850 MtCO2e, while afforestation and reforestation efforts could account for an additional 250 MtCO2e ¶ Implementing all potential levers would turn the currently large emission source of forestry into a significant carbon sinkPeatland management2030 – emissions: 1.2 GtCO2;, reduction potential: 700 MtCO2e ¶ Indonesia’s peatland emissions in 2005 were at 1.0 GtCO2e, or 45 percent of Indonesia’s total emissions Emissions from peatland stem primarily from slow oxidation of carbon- rich soils after drainage, or more rapid oxidation through peat fires. These two emissions sources are large, accounting for an average of 0.77 GtCO2e in current annual emissions. A further 0.25 Gt is caused by deforestation and degradation (through timber extraction) of peatland forests. ¶ The main sources of peatland emissions in 2005 was deforestation (21.5%), degradation through timber extraction (3.4%), peat fires (45.8%) and peat decomposition through drainage (29.5%). ¶ Emissions from peatland are expected to increase by 20 percent, reaching 1.2 Gt CO2e in 2030 through the continued conversion of peatland for other land use (e.g. palm oil cultivation) and their increasing vulnerability to fire due to forest degradation and drainage ¶ 700 MtCO2e of reduction opportunity are identified in the peat sector, including: Halting annual deforestation and degradation of 300,000 ha of forested peatland would result in the prevention of 250 MtCO2e of emissions from removal of above-ground biomass Restoration of 5 million ha of non-commercially used peatland (re- wetting and replanting) could result in a further reduction of 360 MtCO2e ¶ Other identified reduction levers are improved water and fire management on existing agricultural areas and pulpwood plantations
  • 3. Agriculture sector2030 – emissions: 152 MtCO2e; reduction potential: 105 MtCO2e ¶ GHG emissions from agriculture are at 139 Mt CO2e in 2005 with rice cultivation being the largest emitter, accounting for 51.4 MtCO2e mainly in form of methane (CH4). (The estimate of agricultural emissions do not include peat-related emissions, some of which occur in areas classified as agriculture.) ¶ Emissions from agriculture are estimated to reach 152 MtCO2e in 2030, mainly driven by increasing numbers of livestock and larger rice cultivation areas. The reduction potential of the agriculture sector is estimated to be 105 MtCO2e or 63 percent of the sectors emissions by 2030 ¶ The largest reduction opportunities are given by improved water and nutrient management for rice cultivation and the restoration of degraded agricultural landPower sector2030 – emissions: 750 MtCO2e; reduction potential: 220 MtCO2e ¶ Emissions from the power sector are estimated to be at 110 MtCO2e in 2005; more than 75% of emissions are caused by use of coal ¶ Emissions from the power sector are expected to grow seven-fold, reaching 750 MtCO2e in 2030 Emission growth is driven by rapid demand growth (e.g. increased electrification of rural Indonesia from today’s 60 percent to 100 percent in 2030) and an increasing dependence on coal-fired power plants ¶ Several opportunities exist to abate as much as 220 MtCO2e in 2030, including: – Increased penetration of clean and renewable energy sources (166 MtCO2e) – Increased use of clean coal technologies (6.1 MtCO2e)
  • 4. Transportation sector2030 – emissions: 500 MtCO2e; reduction potential: 100 MtCO2e ¶ 2005 GHG direct emissions from the transportation sector are estimated to be 70 MtCO2e ¶ Direct emissions from the transportation sector will reach 500 MtCO2 in 2030, driven by strong growth of commercial and personal vehicles (e.g penetration levels will increase from 115 vehicles per 1,000 habitants today to 312 in 2030) ¶ Transportation sector indirect emissions could potentially be reduced by 100 MtCO2e (20 percent) across two main mitigation levers Improvement of conventional internal combustion engines (ICE) across all vehicle classes (75 MtCO2e) Shift towards hybrid and electric vehicles (15 MtCO2e)Building sector2030 – emissions: 40 MtCO2e; reduction potential: 47 MtCO2e ¶ Direct emissions from the buildings sector will double from 20 MtCO2e in 2005 to 40 MtCO2e in 2030, driven by residential and commercial energy consumption growth. ¶ Including indirect emissions, the building sector could reduce its emissions by 47 MtCO2e in 2030 Reduction opportunities cover six areas, including alternative water heating replacements (8.8 MtCO2e), more efficient lighting (11.3 MtCO2e) and more efficient appliances replacement (9.3 MtCO2e)Cement sector2030 – emissions: 70 MtCO2e; reduction potential: 12 MtCO2e ¶ With strong economic growth expected for Indonesia for the next 20 years, cement sector direct emissions will more than triple from 20 MtCO2e to 70 MtCO2e Majority of these emissions are generated from production of clinker, a key element of cement production
  • 5. The cement sector could reduce 12 MtCO2e of its 2030 projectedindirect emissions– The largest opportunity for reduction of 5 MtCO2e comes from clinker substitution by slag– Alternative fuels (e.g. industrial and municipal waste) could further reduce emissions by another 3.4 MtCO2e