The Nature of the Future: The Socialstructed World (Marina Gorbis Keynote)

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IFTF Executive Director Marina Gorbis keynote address based on her book, The Nature of the Future: Dispatches from the Socialstructed World

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  • And as Clay Shirky points out, “when we change the way we communicate, we change society.”Image SourcesPhilanthropedia: http://www.myphilanthropedia.org/Teachertube: http://www.teachertube.com/farmville: http://www.farmville.com/Twitpay: http://twitpay.com/
  • <<declining curve>> The declining curve of our incumbent reality <<ascending curve>>And the ascending curve that is still unformed and emerging.  And we have the path from here to there…So this is the map of our territory. It’s not just a map of the decade. It’s a map of the basic contours of the century.  In order to understand the coming decade, we need to look at it in the context of the entire century— —in the context of these two BIG intersecting curves.  This is where I landed about 6 months ago when I was trying to put together all the trends and discontinuities that we’re seeing today… And I suddenly remembered a book 
  • This raises a fundamental question that applies to most of the organizations in the room- “What if your management approach is really a technology?” and beyond that, “what if it is on the verge of being disrupted?”
  • Green Watch Source: http://www.designbuzz.com/entry/the-green-watch-keeps-watch-on-paris-pollution/
  • http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/budget-hero
  • http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/budget-hero
  • Source: http://www.state.gov/opinionspace/
  • <<declining curve>> The declining curve of our incumbent reality <<ascending curve>>And the ascending curve that is still unformed and emerging.  And we have the path from here to there…So this is the map of our territory. It’s not just a map of the decade. It’s a map of the basic contours of the century.  In order to understand the coming decade, we need to look at it in the context of the entire century— —in the context of these two BIG intersecting curves.  This is where I landed about 6 months ago when I was trying to put together all the trends and discontinuities that we’re seeing today… And I suddenly remembered a book 
  • <<declining curve>> The declining curve of our incumbent reality <<ascending curve>>And the ascending curve that is still unformed and emerging.  And we have the path from here to there…So this is the map of our territory. It’s not just a map of the decade. It’s a map of the basic contours of the century.  In order to understand the coming decade, we need to look at it in the context of the entire century— —in the context of these two BIG intersecting curves.  This is where I landed about 6 months ago when I was trying to put together all the trends and discontinuities that we’re seeing today… And I suddenly remembered a book 
  • The Nature of the Future: The Socialstructed World (Marina Gorbis Keynote)

    1. 1. THE NATURE OF THEFUTUREthe socialstructed worldMarina GorbisExecutive Directormgorbis@iftf.org@mgorbis
    2. 2. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613Paul Baran, On Distributed Communications,1964
    3. 3. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 3“”When we change the way we communicate,we change society—Clay Shirky”
    4. 4. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 4two-curve frameworkinstitutional production socialstructed creation
    5. 5. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613SOCIALSTRUCTING:creating value by aggregating microcontributions by large networks using socialtools and technologies
    6. 6. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613socialstructed work6
    7. 7. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613The main reason why it isprofitable to establish a firm isto lower transaction costs–Ronald Coase,The Nature of The Firm,1937
    8. 8. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613institutions are a technologyand this technology is being disrupted
    9. 9. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
    10. 10. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 10Source:gretcurtisonFlickr/
    11. 11. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
    12. 12. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613amplified individuals doing things that previously only alarge organization could dosocialstructed work
    13. 13. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613socialstructed learning13
    14. 14. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613Source:travelpod.com
    15. 15. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
    16. 16. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
    17. 17. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613Source:travelpod.com
    18. 18. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613from institutions to learning flowssocialstructed learning
    19. 19. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613socialstructed governance19
    20. 20. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613Greek Assembly Picture
    21. 21. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
    22. 22. © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.open data:from institutions to citizens22
    23. 23. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 23
    24. 24. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
    25. 25. © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.decision support tools:new human-machine partnership25
    26. 26. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 26
    27. 27. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 27
    28. 28. © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.engagement platforms:from rational ignorance to public deliberation28
    29. 29. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 29
    30. 30. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
    31. 31. © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.microparticipation:citizen engagement in provision of services31
    32. 32. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613
    33. 33. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613governance beyond governmentsocialstructedgovernance
    34. 34. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613ReConstitutional ConventionApril 26-27, 2013
    35. 35. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 35
    36. 36. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613“Transformational products are objects for the goodlife that appeal to people’s interest ingrowth, flourishing, and self-improvement …”– Matthias Laschke, Marc Hassenzahl, and SarahDiefenbach, Things with Attitude: Transformational Products
    37. 37. © 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1613 37design for the second curve

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