Dr. Mark Rosegrant
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Experts, decision-makers part of the audience attended a presentation by Dr. Mark Rosegrant whose presentation projected onto the next 40 years and highlighted what the world food demand will be by ...

Experts, decision-makers part of the audience attended a presentation by Dr. Mark Rosegrant whose presentation projected onto the next 40 years and highlighted what the world food demand will be by 2050. He also focused on the case of sub-Saharan Africa and Senegal.The other highlight of the conference was the presentation by Dr. Alioune Fall, Scientific Director of ISRA on “Future implications of high food demand for agricultural research”. Dr. Fall listed the various projects conducted at the national level by his organization, one of the drivers of Senegalese agriculture. ITA, (the National Food Processing Institute) was represented by Dr Ndoye who made a presentation on: “the dynamics of urban consumption and their impact on processing technology of local products”.Comments where then given by representatives of USAID, the World Food Program, and ASPRODEB (Senegalese farmer organizations NGO) and were followed by discussions.The press was also present at this quarterly “Development and Strategy” conference series- that focuses on socioeconomic development-organized by IFPRI, IPAR, FASEG the DAPS, and the DPEE ANSD.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
301
Slideshare-icon Views on SlideShare
301
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Dr. Mark Rosegrant Dr. Mark Rosegrant Presentation Transcript

    • Food Supply and Demand and Food Security in Africa to 2050 Mark W. Rosegrant DirectorEnvironment and Production Technology Division IFPRI-Dakar Office January 21, 2013
    • Outline Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security Baseline Projections of Supply, Demand and Food Security Irrigation Potential and Constraints in Africa Technology Potential in African Agriculture Conclusions and Policy Implications www.ifpri.org
    • Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security Demand drivers • Population in Africa will double to 2 billion people in 2050 • Urbanization in Africa: 2010 = 36% urban; 2050 = 57% urban • Income growth • Biofuels and bioenergy • GHG mitigation and carbon sequestration • Conservation and biodiversitywww.ifpri.org
    • Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security  Supply drivers • Water and land scarcity • Climate change • Investment in agricultural research • Science and technology policy • Management and governance reformwww.ifpri.org
    • Baseline Projections of Supply, Demand and Food Security
    • Flow Chart of IMPACT Modelwww.ifpri.org
    • Africa Regions Regions Countries Eastern Africa Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe Western Africa Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo Northern Africa Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia Southern Africa Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland Central Africa Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, DRC, Equatorial Guinea, Gabonwww.ifpri.org
    • Annual Average Growth in GDP,Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050 7 Percent Growth Rate per Year 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Annual Average Growth in GDP in Africa,Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050 7 Percent Growth Rate per Year 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Annual Average Growth in Per CapitaGDP, Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050 6 Percent Growth Rate per Year 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Annual Average Growth in Per Capita GDP inAfrica, Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050 4.5 Percent Growth Rate per Year 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Annual Average Growth in Population,Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050 2.5 Percent Growth Rate per Year 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Annual Average Growth in Population in Africa, Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050 2.5 Percent Growth Rate per Year 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • World Cereal Yields Annual Average Growth Rate 1970-1990 (FAO) 1990-2010 (FAO) 2010-2050 (IMPACT Baseline) 3.5 Percent Growth Rater per Year 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Maize Rice Soybeans Wheat Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulationswww.ifpri.org
    • Cereal Yields – Africa Regions Annual Average Growth Rate, 2010 - 2050 1.8Percent Growth Rate per Year 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Source of Cereal Production Growth, 2010 - 2050 Area Expansion Yield Improvement 120 100 80Percent Change 60 40 20 0 -20 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Total Crop Area by Africa Regions- Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 180 160 140Million Hectares 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 CentralAfrica EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Total Irrigated Area by Africa Regions- Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 14 12Million Hectares 10 8 6 4 2 0 CentralAfrica EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Percent Change in World Prices of Cereals between 2010 and 2050 60 50Percent Change 40 30 20 10 0 Rice Wheat Maize Other Grains Soybeans Sorghum Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Percent Change in World Prices of Meat between 2010 and 2050 60 50Percent Change 40 30 20 10 0 Beef Pork Lamb Poultry Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Africa Cereal Production- Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 120 100Million Metric Tons 80 60 40 20 0 EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Africa Meat Production- Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 12 10Million Metric Tons 8 6 4 2 0 EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Africa Per Capita Cereal Demand- Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 250 200Kg per Capita 150 100 50 0 EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Africa Per Capita Meat Demand- Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 60 50Kg per Capita 40 30 20 10 0 EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Africa Net Trade Cereals- Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica 0 -10Million Metric Tons -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Africa Net Trade Meat- Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 2 1Million Metric Tons 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Per Capita Kilo Calorie Avialability in Africa - Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 3500 Kilocalories per person per day 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Population at the Risk of Hunger – Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 900 800 700 600Millions 500 400 300 200 100 0 Developing SubSaharanAfrica Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Population at the Risk of Hunger – Africa Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050 2010 2050 140 120 100Millions 80 60 40 20 0 EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations www.ifpri.org
    • Irrigation Potential and Constraints in Africa
    • Methodology for regional scale analysis of irrigation potentialData analysis & modeling Key stepstools GIS 1. Ex-ante analysis Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) 2. Predictive modeling at river basin level Dynamic Research EvaluAtion for Management (DREAM) 3. Indicators — cost-benefit — environmental impact www.ifpri.org
    • Potential increase in gross revenue per hectare from small-scale irrigation Source: IFPRI 2010
    • Potential large-scale and small-scale based irrigated areas, alternative IRR levels Source: IFPRI 2010
    • 0 100 30 40 50 90 10 20 60 70 80 Guinea Guinea-Bissau South Africa Zambiawww.ifpri.org Tunisia Madagascar Mauritius Morocco Burkina Faso Botswana Egypt Kenya Côte dIvoire Ghana Swaziland Niger Chad Togo Namibia Algeria Seychelles Nigeria Mali Zimbabwe Congo, Dem. Rep. Libyan Arab … Cape Verde Comoros Uganda Eritrea Senegal Central African … Mauritania Gambia, The Malawi Angola Message 1: Fix what is broken Sudan Djibouti Mozambique Somalia Percentage of irrigation-equipped area not actually irrigated Benin Congo, Rep. of Lesotho Source: Adapted from FAO AQUASTAT
    • Message 2: Location-bound large-scale potential Investment Internal rate Increase in Dam type expenditure of return irrigated area (US$ million) (%) (hectares)Operational 16,299 7.16 8,351,423Rehabilitated 1,954 11.32 1,000,944Planned 13,465 5.27 6,899,376Total 31,718 6.61 16,251,744 Source: IFPRI 2010 www.ifpri.org
    • Message 3: Small-scale irrigation:widespread, more profitable, but sensitive to cost Investment Internal rate Increase in Cost type expenditure of return irrigated area (US$ million) (%) (hectares)Low 24,315 104.00 15,785,617Medium 21,835 27.00 7,340,964High 1,969 9.00 321,727 Source: IFPRI 2010 www.ifpri.org
    • Message 4: Need to keep investment costs low to improve viability 20 Irrigated area increase (million ha) Irrigated area increase (million ha) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 10,000 8,000 6,000 3,000 1,000 Unit cost per ha ($/ha) Unit cost per ha ($/ha) Large scalewww.ifpri.org Source: IFPRI (2010)
    • Message 4: Need to keep investment costs low to improve viability 18,000 Irrigated area increase (000 ha) ha) 16,000 Irrigated area increase (million 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 600 2000 5000 Unit cost per ha ($/ha) Unit cost per ha ($/ha) Small scalewww.ifpri.org Source: IFPRI (2010)
    • Technology Potentialin African Agriculture
    • Technology Assessment Scope  Global & Regional • Zero Tillage  Ten Technologies • Integrated Soil Fertility  Three Crops Management • Irrigation Technologies • Wheat • Water Harvesting • Rice • Drought Tolerance • Maize • Heat tolerance • Nitrogen Use Efficiency • Precision Agriculture • Laser Land Leveling • Organic Agriculturewww.ifpri.org
    • DSSAT – Crop Modeling Systemwww.ifpri.org
    • Management Scenarios Baseline • Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate • Furrow/flood irrigation, where irrigation is adopted • Sub-optimal planting density and sub-optimal planting window • Conventional tillage • Representative varieties for latitude x altitude zones Technology scenarios • Specific representation of each technology • Area of adoption in 2050 depends on technology Climate change scenario in 2050 • MIROC A1B (without CO2 fertilization) www.ifpri.org
    • Yield change (%), Regional effect in 2050 (MIROC A1B)
    • Conclusions and Policy Implications
    • Agricultural Productivity Policy Increasing agricultural productivity: agricultural research, on-farm management, and rural investment • Emphasis on crop and livestock breeding (including biotechnology) targeting abiotic and biotic stresses • Water harvesting, precision agriculture, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest management, reduction of post harvest losses • Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, information, credit, inputs, mobile phone towers www.ifpri.org
    • Irrigation Policies Increased investment in large and small-scale irrigation, and irrigation technology (drip, micro- sprinkler, real-time management) Reduce subsidies that distort production decisions and encourage water use beyond economically appropriate levels • Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies • Savings invested in activities that boost farm output and income www.ifpri.org
    • Directions for Future Research Analyses of strategies and policies for sustainable agricultural intensification Analysis and valuation of the environmental externalities and services provided by agricultural production systems and practices, and analysis of policies for promoting positive environmental effects from agriculture Models and scenario analysis on food, land, water, and energy use for developing sustainable agricultural intensification policymaking Decision-support tools for sustainable agricultural intensification, applied across scales from household/micro level to national/macro