Open house ifpri ligane sene

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Open house ENSA & ISFAR to IFPRI Ligane Sene

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Open house ifpri ligane sene

  1. 1. IFPRI Open House ENSA-ISFAR IFPRI Standard model A 1-minute explanation Ligane Massamba J. Sene 31-03-2014
  2. 2. Introduction • CGE : Policy issues • Equations describing model variables • Often used in developing countries such as those based on the IFPRI template model • IFPRI standard model features
  3. 3. Activities Factor markets Households Commodity markets Rest of world Government Sav. / Invest. Returns Domestic private savings Taxes Costs Transfers Private cons. Gov. cons. Invest. demand ExportsImports Sales Foreign savingsForeign transfers Intermed. demand Typical model structure Activities Factor markets Commodity markets Households Rest of world Household surveys National accounts Supply/use table Labor force surveys Trade data B.o.P. Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) + = Data requirements
  4. 4. Marketed commodity
  5. 5. Application : Food price shocks & CAADP in Senegal • Key features of Senegal Economy • Agriculture, the main economic activity in rural areas (60% of the population live in rural areas) • Erratic agricultural growth and national GDP growth rate around 3.5% that is below the government target of 7% as specified in the SCA. • Poverty rate of 46% in 2011 • Knowledge gap to fill for optimal agricultural policies (food prices hikes & poor agriculture performance) • Data requirement (Agricultural SAM for Senegal, ESPS II)
  6. 6. Agricultural commodities and sectors in the model
  7. 7. Food prices : Simulation designs
  8. 8. Food price shocks: Poverty impacts
  9. 9. CAADP impacts in Senegal • The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) : as part of NEPAD in July 2003 and focus on improving and promoting agriculture across Africa. • Allocation of 10 per cent of national budget to agriculture • An agricultural growth target of 6 per cent • The programme focuses on four key areas to improve productivity and growth. Land and water management, Market access, Food supply and hunger and Agricultural Research
  10. 10. Targeted yields: rice 6.68, millet/sorghum 1.05 , maïze 1.5 , peanut 1.2 CAADP impacts in Senegal
  11. 11. CAADP impacts in Senegal
  12. 12. Conclusion • Policy option in response to food price hikes should be targeted to optimize the impact on poverty reduction • The simulated low magnitude change in transaction costs, generally due to remoteness and infrastructure quality, have impact on poverty especially in rural area albeit marginally. • Infrastructure for market access • Additional effort for more poverty reduction
  13. 13. Thank you for your attention

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