1LOREM IPSUM DOLOREMShenggen FanDirector GeneralDakar | May 15, 2013
This presentation1. 2012 Global Food Policy Report2. Challenges and opportunities foreconomic transformation in Africa
The global food system remained fragile New numbers,same problem Drought andvolatile food pricesUnited States, Eastern E...
2012Major Food Policy Developments G8 launched New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition in Africa G20 agreed to boos...
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYA Changing Global Harvest Agricultural productivity growth has accelerated substantially Locati...
GREEN ECONOMYSustainable and Growing, Food Secure? Rio+20 conference introduced several new initiatives(e.g. Green Econom...
WOMEN IN AGRICULTUREClosing the Gender Gap Role of gender equality in agriculture gained growing attention(FAO’s State of...
EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTUREJobs for Africa’s Youth Africa south of the Sahara has the fastest growing populationand the you...
US AND EU FARM POLICIESThe Subsidy Habit Farm subsidies in the US and EU persist, the debate continues Not much was done...
Difference in population at risk of hunger (%), compared with baseline, 2050LOOKING AHEADScenarios for the Future of Food0...
Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators1234FOOD POLICY INDICATORSTracking Change5Statistics of Public Expenditure f...
This presentation1. 2012 Global Food Policy Report2. Opportunities and challenges foreconomic transformation in Africa
Rapid economic growthReal GDP per capita, SSA Foreign direct investment net inflows, SSA0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7ZambiaAngolaTanzani...
Accelerating agricultural growthAverage annual agricultural growth, SSA1.52.53.54.52000-2002 2003-2005 2006-2008 2009-2011...
BUT, poverty and undernutrition remain highSource: Ravallion (2013)Number and prevalence of poverty, SSANumber and prevale...
For economic transformation tobenefit the poor and hungry in Africa Focus on smallholder farmers Link growth to nutritio...
Focus on smallholder farmsFarm size (ha)% of all farmsAfrica<2 802-10 1510-100 3>100 0They can• Use land more efficiently•...
Link growth to nutrition and healthGrowth strategies should be designed with anutrition and health lens e.g. Promoting pr...
Build resilience against shocksScale up better targeted and more productivesocial safety nets Explore cross-sectoral app...
OUTLOOK FOR 2013Walk the Talk! Build resilience of global and national food systems and the poor Give attention to dry a...
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Board workshop

  1. 1. 1LOREM IPSUM DOLOREMShenggen FanDirector GeneralDakar | May 15, 2013
  2. 2. This presentation1. 2012 Global Food Policy Report2. Challenges and opportunities foreconomic transformation in Africa
  3. 3. The global food system remained fragile New numbers,same problem Drought andvolatile food pricesUnited States, Eastern Europe,Central Asia, Southern Africa,Sahel ConflictDRC, Mali, Somalia, Syria Long-term drivers ofglobal food systemOld and new FAO estimates of undernourished people worldwide,1990-2010
  4. 4. 2012Major Food Policy Developments G8 launched New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition in Africa G20 agreed to boost agricultural productivity Committee for World Food Security endorsed voluntary guidelinesfor land tenure Rio+20 Declaration offered a strong vision with little direction onachieving food security in a green economy Several events were held at the UN General Assembly e.g. New Alliance: Progress and the Way Forward Launch of Nutrition Barometer Scaling Up Nutrition UN Doha climate change negotiations showed stymied progress
  5. 5. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYA Changing Global Harvest Agricultural productivity growth has accelerated substantially Location and composition of production have changed(more in developing countries; more high-value crops) Sources of production growth and regional contributionsare different (sustained high growth in Brazil and China; low growth in Africa)For long-term productivity growth Develop national capacitiesin agricultural R&D Provide better genetic materialsand inputs Create enabling environmentfor rapid technology adoptionSources of growth in global agricultural production
  6. 6. GREEN ECONOMYSustainable and Growing, Food Secure? Rio+20 conference introduced several new initiatives(e.g. Green Economy, Zero Hunger Challenge, Zero Net Land and Forest Degradation) Bioeconomy also gained ground Rio+20 lacked firm policy roadmap and timeframeWhat is needed? Clear measures, timeframes,and accountability mechanisms Incentives and information forcivil society and private sectorRio+20: Towards a “green economy”
  7. 7. WOMEN IN AGRICULTUREClosing the Gender Gap Role of gender equality in agriculture gained growing attention(FAO’s State of Food and Agriculture and World Bank’s World Development Report) Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index was created(IFPRI, USAID, and Oxford Poverty and Human Development) Development programming movingfrom gender-blind to gender-aware programsMore needs to be done to Build evidence base Strengthen women’s assets Engage with women’s groupsas real development partners
  8. 8. EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTUREJobs for Africa’s Youth Africa south of the Sahara has the fastest growing populationand the youngest (additional 150 million people in rural areas from 2010-50) Engagement of Africa’s youth in agriculture is crucialto gain “youth dividend”To realize agriculture’s potential Constraints to land, capital,and skills must be eased Programs must be friendlyto needs of the youth Clear vision and politicalcommitment is neededRural population share and number of people entering ruraland urban labor markets in Africa south of the Sahara, 1950–2050
  9. 9. US AND EU FARM POLICIESThe Subsidy Habit Farm subsidies in the US and EU persist, the debate continues Not much was done to expand productivity-increasing publicagricultural researchWhat must be done? Revisit farm policies Promote non-distortingtrade policies Engage in WTOtrade negotiationsComposition of EU agricultural budget, annual expenditures, 1990-2010
  10. 10. Difference in population at risk of hunger (%), compared with baseline, 2050LOOKING AHEADScenarios for the Future of Food05101520E. Asia &PacificEurope &C. AsiaLAC MENA S. Asia SSA World-40-30-20-100E. Asia &PacificEurope &C. AsiaLAC MENA S. Asia SSA WorldHIGHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER ENERGY PRICES-10-8-6-4-20S. Asia S.E. Asia Asia SSA LAC WorldLower meat demand in high-income countriesLower meat demand in high-income countries + Brazil and ChinaLOWER MEAT DEMAND
  11. 11. Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators1234FOOD POLICY INDICATORSTracking Change5Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic DevelopmentGlobal Hunger IndexFood Policy Research Capacity IndicatorsTotal and Partial Factor Productivity
  12. 12. This presentation1. 2012 Global Food Policy Report2. Opportunities and challenges foreconomic transformation in Africa
  13. 13. Rapid economic growthReal GDP per capita, SSA Foreign direct investment net inflows, SSA0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7ZambiaAngolaTanzaniaMalawiLesothoNigeriaMozambiqueRwandaEthiopiaGhanaAverage annual real GDP/capita growth, SSA, 2008-2012 (%)-2024604008001,2001,6002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Percent2005US$Real GDP/capitaAnnual real GDP/capita growth (right)01530452000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Billions(currentUS$)Source: ERS, USDA 2012 Source: World Bank 2013Large opportunities also from• Agriculture• Natural resources• Urbanization…Source: ERS, USDA 2012
  14. 14. Accelerating agricultural growthAverage annual agricultural growth, SSA1.52.53.54.52000-2002 2003-2005 2006-2008 2009-2011PercentValue of agriculture and food exports, developing Africa0102030405060Billions(US$)Agric raw materialsFoodSource: UNCTAD 2013Source: World Bank 2013Increased agricultural spending• 26 countries have signed investment plans under CAADPNew initiatives for agricultural transformation e.g.• Agricultural Transformation Agency in Ethiopia; Agricultural transformation agenda inNigeria
  15. 15. BUT, poverty and undernutrition remain highSource: Ravallion (2013)Number and prevalence of poverty, SSANumber and prevalence of undernourishment in SSASource: FAOSTAT 2013Prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies, AfricaVitamin A-deficiency• Over 30% of preschool agechildrenAnemia• 60% of pregnant womenSource: HarvestPlus 201102040608002004006008001990 1999 2008 2015PercentMillionsNumber of poorPoverty rate (right)01020304001002003001990-92 1998-00 2006-08 2010-12PercentMillionsNumber of undernourishedPrevalence (right)
  16. 16. For economic transformation tobenefit the poor and hungry in Africa Focus on smallholder farmers Link growth to nutrition and health Build resilience against shocks
  17. 17. Focus on smallholder farmsFarm size (ha)% of all farmsAfrica<2 802-10 1510-100 3>100 0They can• Use land more efficiently• Produce cheaper and morenutritious foods• Increase own incomes andproductivity• Promote equity, hunger, andpoverty reductionSource: Calculations based on most recent data available from FAOAgricultural World Census from late 1980s-2000sExpand agric. R&D and rural infrastructure investmentsplus access to agric. inputs, services, and markets
  18. 18. Link growth to nutrition and healthGrowth strategies should be designed with anutrition and health lens e.g. Promoting productivity growth of more nutritious foods Increasing demand for and access to nutritious foods alongentire value chain Mitigating nutrition and health risks associated withagriculture e.g. zoonotic diseases Breeding more nutritious varieties of staple food cropsconsumed by poor peopleSource: Fan and Brzeska 2012
  19. 19. Build resilience against shocksScale up better targeted and more productivesocial safety nets Explore cross-sectoral approaches to reach poor moreeffectively e.g. Ethiopia Productive Safety Net ProgramImprove data and information to better predictand respond to shocks e.g. early warning systemsPromote access to risk management mechanismse.g. weather index-based insuranceSupport livelihood diversification
  20. 20. OUTLOOK FOR 2013Walk the Talk! Build resilience of global and national food systems and the poor Give attention to dry areas Further advance the nexus approach(agriculture, nutrition, health & food, water, land, energy) Fulfill L’Aquila commitments, build national capacities,and support implementation of country-led processes Ensure post-2015 development agenda focuses on poor peoplewhile pursuing sustainable development goalsWe can end hunger sustainably by 2025

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