The changing research and development agenda


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Michel Griffon (ANR, Paris)
14th May 2008, Royal museum for Central Africa in Tervuren, Belgium

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The changing research and development agenda

  1. 1. The changing research and development agenda Presentation to IFPRI Board Tervuren May 14 – 2008 Michel Griffon (ANR Paris) Mi h l G iff (ANR, P i )
  2. 2. 1. Long term perspective of food needs • Using P. Collomb’s data base (1998), food production have to double from 2000 to 2050. • Long term production increase depends of = land availability * water availability * current yields * capital accumulation * technology availability * prices input/output * reactivity of societies.
  3. 3. • Comparing regional long term perspectives (LT comparative advantages): – Asia will be a major importer (China); – WANA also; – SSA could feed itself but with a low increase of per capita food ratio; – Latin America will be a major exporter (Brazil, Argentina) but with important ecological risks; – Canada and Russia could benefit from climate change and increase their export capacity; – USA and EU could increase also but in low proportions.
  4. 4. • First conclusion: –LLong t term (2050) global food abundance is l b lf d b d i not totally guaranteed; – But no reason to become Malthusian and prophesy famines – But the constraints [needs for biodiversity [ y preservation (reduction of available land), for climate adaptation, risk of water scarcity, of social unresponsiveness] are so important that there is a potential risk for temporary food scarcity,y – and possibly a slow long term increase of food prices (after one century of slow price reduction). d ti )
  5. 5. 2. 2 Two scarcity accelerators • China’s middle class consumption China s (meat) and probably India to follow; • Biofuel perspectives (first generation) => Leading to world food prices increase (signal) • And increased risks of natural disaster: Australian drought, Myanmar hurricane… => More prices volatility?
  6. 6. 3. With 2 decades of Structural Adjustment unfavorable to agriculture Adj f bl i l • Structural adjustment was necessary necessary, • But it has been adverse to agriculture. • Donors h D have reduced aid t agriculture. d d id to i lt • It is probably the main reason for yields plateauing in many Green Revolution areas... • and for world stocks reduction… => giving other MT-LT signals of scarcity. > MT LT scarcity
  7. 7. 4. And public policies favoring cities and di f d disfavoring agriculture i i l • Governments are under pressure of the street • Import has always been a lucrative business for Governments • Farmers are very often considered as a backward society unable to change • Farmers have no power on markets and prices. => Reduced supply elasticity?
  8. 8. 5. At the same time, energy prices are i increasing i • With direct transmission of energy prices to agriculture production costs: – Increase of tillage costs – And N, P, K (energy, transport, future scarcity of deposits?) => Big changes in technology become inevitable. inevitable
  9. 9. 6. 6 Pollutions have to be reduced • N: leaching, water p g pollution, g greenhouse • P, K: water pollution • Ph Phytosanitary molecules: i l l – Problems of health for producers – Problems of health for consumers, leading to more restrictive future standards – Less efficiency duration of pesticides (because of biological resistance) g ) => Need for new technology.
  10. 10. 7. A new equation q • Produce more food (and feed, fuel, fibre?), • With higher yields yields, • In all kinds of agriculture, mainly poor, • With higher input prices, • With climate change (particularly water scarcity) and need for adaptation, • With a big technical change (tillage, fertilizing, crop protection –and animal), • B i environment f i dl –producing Being i t friendly d i ecological services, • But with better prices (if good price transmission)
  11. 11. It defines and agricultural mutation or revolution (C l i (Conway) ) • With technical aspects: conservation agriculture, agroecology, ecoagriculture, evergreen revolution doubly green revolution, revolution… • With agriculture policy accompaniment with appropriate incentives : income stability, stability farm investment, infrastructure investment investment, transition costs…
  12. 12. 8. Some basic elements of a research agenda i technology h d in h l • Defining “ecologically intensive systems ecologically intensive” • Soil: metagenomics, no tillage, intensification of natural nutrient cycles, C sequestration, water conservation… i • Innovative spatial cropping patterns and arrangements • Develop integrated pest management • Molecular biotechnology for pest management • Crop design (all kinds of biotechnologies incl. GMO) • LT Landscape ecology planning • E l i l services Ecological i
  13. 13. Mucuna: First used in banana plantations, this aggressive legouminous can now be used in Central America in mountain l i b di C t lA i i t i slopes. Honduras
  14. 14. Rice and arachis « cooperation »
  15. 15. Niger- Keïta Technology i it ti « ti T h l imitating tiger b h » bush
  16. 16. Australia Medicago troncatula Doubly Green Revolution
  17. 17. Cotton : Direct sawing in mulch
  18. 18. Fungus atack on an insect INRA Patureau
  19. 19. Virus destroying a caterpilar (H. de Conchard INRA)
  20. 20. 9. Some basic elements for a development agenda d l d • Define world, regional and national nested strategies for food g g security reversing policies that are adverse to agriculture, and adapting to climate change; • Define a new system for price stabilization (reduction of fluctuations); • Invest in agriculture infrastructure: – Market infrastructure – Landscape infrastructure (green frameworks) – Farm infrastructure – Education. Ed ti • Introduce in WTO concerns about long term ecological dumping.
  21. 21. All this would need an international discussion and agreement agreement…