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Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
Climate Change and Global Food Security
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Climate Change and Global Food Security

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Mark W. Rosegrant, Director …

Mark W. Rosegrant, Director
Gerald Nelson, Senior Research Fellow
Environment and Production Technology Division

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  • 1. Climate Change and Global Food Security<br />Mark W. Rosegrant, Director<br />Gerald Nelson,Senior Research Fellow<br />Environment and Production Technology Division<br />
  • 2. Agricultural Growth and Food Security<br />
  • 3. Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate <br />Change in 2050 <br />(MIROC/A1B)<br />Overall production change in shown existing areas: -10.5%<br />Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al., 2010)<br />
  • 4. Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate <br />Change in 2080 <br />(MIROC/A1B)<br />Overall production change in shown existing areas: -16.1 %<br />Source: IFPRI preliminary findings<br />
  • 5. RainfedMaize: Impact of Climate <br />Change in 2050 <br />(MIROC/A1B)<br />Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2%<br />Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al., 2010)<br />
  • 6. RainfedMaize: Impact of Climate <br />Change in 2080 <br />(MIROC/A1B)<br />Overall production change in shown existing areas: -37.3%<br />Source: IFPRI preliminary findings<br />
  • 7. Irrigated Wheat: Impact of Climate <br />Change in 2050 <br />(MIROC/A1B)<br />Overall production change in shown existing areas: -14.8%<br />Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al., 2010)<br />
  • 8. Irrigated Wheat: Impact of Climate <br />Change in 2080 <br />(MIROC/A1B)<br />Overall production change in shown existing areas: -28.8%<br />Source: IFPRI preliminary findings<br />
  • 9. Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100) <br />Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios<br />Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al., 2010)<br />
  • 10. Impact on Calorie Consumption <br />Average of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 12 % decline in developing countries<br />
  • 11. Impact on Childhood Malnutrition<br />Average of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 10% increase in developing countries<br />
  • 12. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS<br />
  • 13. Conclusions<br />Good agricultural development policy is good adaptation policy <br />Climate change is a threat multiplier: requires higher investment to reach development goals<br />Sustainable agricultural growth in hands of farmers reduces poverty and facilitates climate change adaptation and mitigation <br />Greater investment needed in climate-sensitive traits and protection against climate variability and extremes<br />
  • 14. Agricultural Productivity <br /><ul><li>Increasing crop productivity: agricultural research, water management, and rural investment
  • 15. Emphasis on crop breeding (including biotechnology) targeting abiotic and biotic stresses, nitrogen use efficiency
  • 16. Water harvesting, precision agriculture, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management
  • 17. Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputs</li></li></ul><li>Expand Pro-Poor Mitigation <br /><ul><li>Invest in science to clarify sequestration and mitigation potential in agriculture
  • 18. Establish regional centers for carbon trading, with specialized business services and local intermediaries</li></ul>Simplify standards (baseline and monitoring) for small-scale carbon contracts<br />Fund development and implementation of low-cost monitoring systems<br />

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