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Climate Change and Global Food Security

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Mark W. Rosegrant, Director …

Mark W. Rosegrant, Director
Gerald Nelson, Senior Research Fellow
Environment and Production Technology Division


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  • 1. Climate Change and Global Food Security
    Mark W. Rosegrant, Director
    Gerald Nelson,Senior Research Fellow
    Environment and Production Technology Division
  • 2. Agricultural Growth and Food Security
  • 3. Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate
    Change in 2050
    (MIROC/A1B)
    Overall production change in shown existing areas: -10.5%
    Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al., 2010)
  • 4. Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate
    Change in 2080
    (MIROC/A1B)
    Overall production change in shown existing areas: -16.1 %
    Source: IFPRI preliminary findings
  • 5. RainfedMaize: Impact of Climate
    Change in 2050
    (MIROC/A1B)
    Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2%
    Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al., 2010)
  • 6. RainfedMaize: Impact of Climate
    Change in 2080
    (MIROC/A1B)
    Overall production change in shown existing areas: -37.3%
    Source: IFPRI preliminary findings
  • 7. Irrigated Wheat: Impact of Climate
    Change in 2050
    (MIROC/A1B)
    Overall production change in shown existing areas: -14.8%
    Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al., 2010)
  • 8. Irrigated Wheat: Impact of Climate
    Change in 2080
    (MIROC/A1B)
    Overall production change in shown existing areas: -28.8%
    Source: IFPRI preliminary findings
  • 9. Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100)
    Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios
    Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al., 2010)
  • 10. Impact on Calorie Consumption
    Average of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 12 % decline in developing countries
  • 11. Impact on Childhood Malnutrition
    Average of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 10% increase in developing countries
  • 12. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
  • 13. Conclusions
    Good agricultural development policy is good adaptation policy
    Climate change is a threat multiplier: requires higher investment to reach development goals
    Sustainable agricultural growth in hands of farmers reduces poverty and facilitates climate change adaptation and mitigation
    Greater investment needed in climate-sensitive traits and protection against climate variability and extremes
  • 14. Agricultural Productivity
    • Increasing crop productivity: agricultural research, water management, and rural investment
    • 15. Emphasis on crop breeding (including biotechnology) targeting abiotic and biotic stresses, nitrogen use efficiency
    • 16. Water harvesting, precision agriculture, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management
    • 17. Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputs
  • Expand Pro-Poor Mitigation
    • Invest in science to clarify sequestration and mitigation potential in agriculture
    • 18. Establish regional centers for carbon trading, with specialized business services and local intermediaries
    Simplify standards (baseline and monitoring) for small-scale carbon contracts
    Fund development and implementation of low-cost monitoring systems

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