Rising Food Prices? The Role of Agricultural R&D
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Like this? Share it with your network

Share

Rising Food Prices? The Role of Agricultural R&D

  • 904 views
Uploaded on

Presentation by Mark W. Rosegrant at the event, “2013 AAEA & CAES Joint Annual Meeting” which took place on August 4-6, 2013 in Washington, DC. It offers AAEA members, CAES members, and other......

Presentation by Mark W. Rosegrant at the event, “2013 AAEA & CAES Joint Annual Meeting” which took place on August 4-6, 2013 in Washington, DC. It offers AAEA members, CAES members, and other applied economists a chance to interact and learn over the course of the three day meeting.

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
904
On Slideshare
855
From Embeds
49
Number of Embeds
2

Actions

Shares
Downloads
26
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 49

http://unjobs.org 42
https://twitter.com 7

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Rising Food Prices? The Role of  Agricultural R&D Mark W. Rosegrant, Director  Environment and Production Technology Division 2013 AAEA & CAES Joint Annual Meeting  Session 1019: Whither Global Food Prices? Marriott Wardman Park, August 4‐6, 2013
  • 2. Outline  Drivers of agricultural growth and food  security  Model description  Baseline projections of supply, demand  and food security  Scenario of increased investments in  agriculture R&D  Conclusions and policy implications
  • 3. Drivers of Agricultural  Growth, Prices, and Food  Security
  • 4. Supply and demand pressures affect  agricultural growth and food security Demand pressures Supply pressures ▪ Population growth – direct – Increased domestic / urban use – Increased food demand ▪ Economic growth – – Increased urban water use – Increased industrial water use – More resource-intensive diets ▪ Biofuels/Bioenergy ▪ Climate mitigation ▪ Conservation and biodiversity ▪ Land and water scarcity ▪ Climate change ▪ Investments in agricultural research ▪ Science and technology policy ▪ Management and governance reform Higher food prices More variable food prices Pressures on ecosystems (quantity and quality impacts) Increased competition and higher prices for natural resources Economic / political conflict Food security at risk
  • 5. Model Description
  • 6. The IMPACT Model  IMPACT – “International Model for Policy  Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and  Trade”  Global partial equilibrium model   Global • 115 countries  • 281 food production units (countries x river  basins) • 46 agricultural commodities
  • 7. Flow Chart of IMPACT Model
  • 8. IMPACT Model Structure  Crop area is a function of crop prices, irrigation investment,  water input, climate change   Yield is a function of crop price, input price, irrigation  investment, water inputs, exogenous yield growth   Yield growth is a function of investment in agricultural  research, irrigation, and rural roads  Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income,  and population  Feed demand is a function of livestock production, feed  prices, and feeding efficiency   Biofuel demand is computed based on policy mandates and  targets  Crush demand is a function of crush profit margins
  • 9. Baseline Projections of  Supply, Demand  and Food Security
  • 10. Annual Average Growth in Per Capita GDP  between 2010 and 2030 – Baseline Projections 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Percent Growth Rate per Year Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 11. Annual Average Growth in Population between  2010 and 2030 – Baseline Projections 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Percent Growth Rate per Year Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 12. World Crop Yields   Annual Average Growth Rate 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Maize Rice Soybeans Wheat Percent Growth Rater per Year 1970‐1990 (FAO) 1990‐2010 (FAO) 2010‐2030 (IMPACT Baseline) Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 13. World Crop Area‐ Baseline Projections 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Rice Wheat Maize Millet Sorghum Other Grains Million Hectares 2010 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 14. Source of Cereal Production  Growth, 2010 ‐ 2030  ‐10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent Change Area Expansion Yield Improvement Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 15. Percent Change in World Prices of  Cereals between 2010 and 2030 0 5 10 15 20 25 Rice Wheat Maize Millet Sorghum Other grains Percent Change Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 16. Percent Change in World Prices of  Meats between 2010 and 2030 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Beef Pork Lamb Poultry Percent Change Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 17. Per Capita Cereal Demand‐ Baseline Projections 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Developed Developing South Asia Sub Saharan Africa Kg per Capita 2010 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 18. Per Capita Meat Demand‐ Baseline Projections 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Developed Developing South Asia Sub Saharan Africa Kg per Capita 2010 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 19. Number of Malnourished Children  0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Developing South Asia Sub Saharan Africa Millions 2010 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 20. Population at Risk of Hunger 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Developing South Asia Sub Saharan Africa Millions 2010 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 21. Scenarios of Increased  Investments in  Agricultural R&D
  • 22. Investment in Ag R&D – CGIAR CGIAR (million 2005 US$) Region 1992 2000 2010 Sub Saharan Africa 171 157 278 Asia Pacific 145 124 171 Latin America & Caribbean  65 63 70 Central and West Asia and  North Africa 45 35 46 Source: Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators, IFPRI
  • 23. ‐4 ‐3 ‐2 ‐1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sub Saharan Africa Asia Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Central and West Asia and North Africa % Rate of Growth 1992‐2000 2000‐2010 Source: Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators, IFPRI Investment in Ag R&D – Rate of Growth CGIAR
  • 24. Investment in R&D – NARS CGIAR (million 2005 US$) Region 1990 2000 2008 East Asia Pacific 909 1405 2450 South Asia 368 615 834 Sub Saharan Africa 527 628 803 Latin America  Caribbean  1373 1577 1819 West Asia and North Africa   n.a. 698 824 Source: Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators, IFPRI
  • 25. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 East Asia Pacific South Asia Sub Saharan Africa Latin America Caribbean West Asia and North Africa % Rate of Growth 1990‐2000 2000‐2008 Source: Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators, IFPRI Investment in R&D – Rate of Growth NARS
  • 26. Increased Investment Scenario  Compared to Baseline  Increased Investment in Agricultural R&D • Baseline assumes continuation of trend growth,  2000‐2008,  in CGIAR and NARS agricultural R&D.  • Increased investment scenario: Level of CGIAR and  NARS investment in agricultural R&D is doubled by  2020 compared to the baseline, then baseline trend  to 2030 
  • 27. Changes in World Prices of Crops  Relative to Baseline, 2030 Commodity/Scenario Increased Investment Rice  ‐23.7% Wheat ‐13.5% Maize ‐9.4% Millet ‐20.9% Sorghum ‐15.6% Other Grains ‐7.7% Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • 28. Commodity/Scenario Increased Investment Beef  ‐14.6% Pork ‐12.6% Poultry ‐14.0% Sheep & Goat ‐16.7% Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model Changes in World Prices of Meat  Relative to Baseline, 2030
  • 29. Commodity/Scenario Increased Investments East Asia and Pacific 22.0% Europe and Central Asia 5.1% Latin America and Caribbean 8.6% Middle East and North Africa  21.6% South Asia 21.4% Sub‐Saharan Africa 20.2% Developed ‐0.9% Developing  16.9% World  11.2% Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model Changes in Cereal Yield Relative to Baseline, 2030
  • 30. Commodity/Scenario Increased Investments East Asia and Pacific ‐4.9% Europe and Central Asia ‐5.1% Latin America and Caribbean ‐5.7% Middle East and North Africa  ‐3.4% South Asia ‐5.7% Sub‐Saharan Africa ‐7.6% Developed ‐5.6% Developing  ‐5.6% World  ‐5.6% Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model Changes in Cereal Crop Area Relative to Baseline, 2030
  • 31. Commodity/Scenario Increased Investment East Asia and Pacific 16% Europe and Central Asia ‐0.3% Latin America and Caribbean 2.4% Middle East and North Africa  17.5% South Asia 14.5% Sub‐Saharan Africa 11.0% Developed ‐6.5% Developing  10.4% World  4.9% Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model Changes in Production of Cereals Relative to Baseline, 2030
  • 32. Commodity/Scenario Increased Investment East Asia and Pacific 9.8% Europe and Central Asia 10.5% Latin America and Caribbean 8.6% Middle East and North Africa  9.2% South Asia 8.9% Sub‐Saharan Africa 9.1% Developed ‐2.0% Developing  9.4% World  6.0% Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model Changes in Production of Meat Relative to Baseline, 2030
  • 33. Commodity/Scenario Increased Investment East Asia and Pacific 5.0% Europe and Central Asia 3.0% Latin America and Caribbean 3.1% Middle East and North Africa  2.8% South Asia 5.4% Sub‐Saharan Africa 6.0% Developed 4.0% Developing  4.8% World  4.7% Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model Changes in Consumption of Cereals Relative to Baseline, 2030
  • 34. Commodity/Scenario Increased Investment East Asia and Pacific 5.4% Europe and Central Asia 5.8% Latin America and Caribbean 7.8% Middle East and North Africa  6.5% South Asia 7.8% Sub‐Saharan Africa 8.9% Developed 5.0% Developing  6.4% World  6.0% Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model Changes in Consumption of Meat Relative to Baseline, 2030
  • 35. Commodity/Scenario Increased Investments East Asia and Pacific ‐16.5% Europe and Central Asia ‐8.8% Latin America and Caribbean ‐10.2% Middle East and North Africa  ‐11.6% South Asia ‐4.2% Sub‐Saharan Africa ‐7.8% Developed ‐5.6% Developing  ‐7.1% World  ‐6.9% Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model Impact on Number of Malnourished Children  Relative to Baseline, 2030
  • 36. Commodity/Scenario Increased Investments East Asia and Pacific ‐13.4% Europe and Central Asia ‐2.8% Latin America and Caribbean ‐30.6% Middle East and North Africa  ‐11.7% South Asia ‐32.2% Sub‐Saharan Africa ‐27.3% Developed ‐7.0% Developing  ‐26.0% World  ‐24.9% Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model Impact on Population at Risk of Hunger  Relative to Baseline, 2030
  • 37. Conclusions and Policy  Implications
  • 38. Conclusions  Doubling of public investment in agricultural  R&D by 2020: direct positive effects on crop  yields  Indirect impacts on prices, crop area,   production, food consumption and food security   World prices of major commodities decline  relative to baseline   Significant improvements in food security  indicators ‐ number of malnourished children  and population at risk of hunger