Robinson Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050

General Equilibrium Simulations for the Foresight Future of Food and Farming Project
Sherman Robinson
December 2010

December 2008January 2011
Foresight Project Overview
Phase 3:
Report Production
Phase 1:
Defining Challenge
Phase 2:
How to Address
Challenge
Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion
Driver Review Publication: The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
Five Challenges
Drivers in the Food system
Projected demand for food
Projected supply of food
Regional Reviews
State of science reviews
Workshops
Africa workstream
Modelling initiative with IFPRI & IDS
Release on January 25, 2011

Globe general equilibrium model to supplement IFPRI results
Multi-country, trade-focused, CGE model using the GTAP global data set
Simulates the operation of national economies operating in global markets
Solves for market clearing commodity prices and quantities (production and trade), both nationally and globally, given supply and demand in all markets
Comparative static simulations
3

Selected scenarios
Drought in NAFTA, China, and India
With and without agricultural export restrictions in exporting countries in response to rising prices
Doha failure: general increase in trade protectionism
Increased meat demand in India and China
Fossil fuel scarcity: climate change mitigation and/or peak oil
4

Drought: Largest price impacts where drought occurs
5
China, India, NAFTA

… Drought plus export limits changes trade flow volumes in different directions
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Doha failure and more protection: Food prices rise everywhere
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Increased India and China meat demand: Small effects on crop prices
8

… and crop production.
9

Fossil Fuel Scarcity: Welfare gains for exporting countries
10

Oil scarcity versus energy taxes: Indirect effects are small
11

Oil scarcity versus taxes: Changes in world food crop prices are small
12

Conclusions from CGE analysis
International trade is important
Ameliorates unequal distribution of supply-side shocks (e.g., droughts and climate change)
Increases in protectionism amplify stresses on the food system by increasing prices and encouraging production in less suitable areas
Increases in demand for livestock products in large countries such as China and India lead to modest increases in world food prices, with free trade
Protectionist response leads to bigger price effects
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Robinson Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050

by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

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