Robinson Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050
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IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050" by Sherman Robinson

IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050" by Sherman Robinson

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Robinson Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. General Equilibrium Simulations for the Foresight Future of Food and Farming Project
    Sherman Robinson
    December 2010
  • 2. December 2008January 2011
    Foresight Project Overview
    Phase 3:
    Report Production
    Phase 1:
    Defining Challenge
    Phase 2:
    How to Address
    Challenge
    • Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion
    • 3. Driver Review Publication: The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
    • 4. Five Challenges
    • 5. Drivers in the Food system
    • 6. Projected demand for food
    • 7. Projected supply of food
    • 8. Regional Reviews
    • 9. State of science reviews
    • 10. Workshops
    • 11. Africa workstream
    • 12. Modelling initiative with IFPRI & IDS
    Release on January 25, 2011
  • 13. Globe general equilibrium model to supplement IFPRI results
    Multi-country, trade-focused, CGE model using the GTAP global data set
    Simulates the operation of national economies operating in global markets
    Solves for market clearing commodity prices and quantities (production and trade), both nationally and globally, given supply and demand in all markets
    Comparative static simulations
    3
  • 14. Selected scenarios
    Drought in NAFTA, China, and India
    With and without agricultural export restrictions in exporting countries in response to rising prices
    Doha failure: general increase in trade protectionism
    Increased meat demand in India and China
    Fossil fuel scarcity: climate change mitigation and/or peak oil
    4
  • 15. Drought: Largest price impacts where drought occurs
    5
    China, India, NAFTA
  • 16. … Drought plus export limits changes trade flow volumes in different directions
    6
  • 17. Doha failure and more protection: Food prices rise everywhere
    7
  • 18. Increased India and China meat demand: Small effects on crop prices
    8
  • 19. … and crop production.
    9
  • 20. Fossil Fuel Scarcity: Welfare gains for exporting countries
    10
  • 21. Oil scarcity versus energy taxes: Indirect effects are small
    11
  • 22. Oil scarcity versus taxes: Changes in world food crop prices are small
    12
  • 23. Conclusions from CGE analysis
    International trade is important
    Ameliorates unequal distribution of supply-side shocks (e.g., droughts and climate change)
    Increases in protectionism amplify stresses on the food system by increasing prices and encouraging production in less suitable areas
    Increases in demand for livestock products in large countries such as China and India lead to modest increases in world food prices, with free trade
    Protectionist response leads to bigger price effects
    13