Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD

944

Published on

Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD on April 12, 2013 at the Food Security Futures Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD on April 12, 2013 at the Food Security Futures Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
944
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
19
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide
  • Sources of agricultural GHGs13% of total GHG emissions result directly from agricultural activities2% indirect (energy and other inputs used in ag)11% to 17 % from land use change, most associated with agricultural practicesTotal: 26 to 32% (2005)
  • Let me mention a short list of direct and indirect mitigation options that can also contribute to sustainable food security.
  • Increase q of research expenditures by public sector – takes time to develop new varieties, management practices, etc.Refocus ag. research to add adaptation and mitigationNeed 21st century systems to provide needed information to farmersFarming is already a complex but will become more so in the future. We need people, institutions, and physical facilities who are ready to deal with this additional complexity
  • 35 million African farmers must switch from mixed farming systems to livestock only by 2050 (Jones and Thornton 2008).
  • Transcript

    • 1. HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE ALTER AGRICULTURAL STRATEGIES TO SUPPORT FOOD SECURITY? SOME COMMENTSFood Security Futures: Research Priorities for the 21st CenturyDublin, 11-12 April 2013Dale AndrewHead, Environment DivisionOECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate
    • 2. Overview of comments• Report’s announced priorities – Increasing resilience – Making transition happen – Developing Indicators – Policy coherence• Other recent policy documents : – Foresight (UK); CCAFS; G20 (Mexican Presidency); UNEP ; OECD, etc.• What is missing? – Water – Biofuels – Collaboration – Relative roles of mitigation and adaptation – Time and Setting priorities OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 2
    • 3. Increasing Resilience OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 3
    • 4. Risk Management: results of an OECD modelling exercise• The impact of climate change on the variability of yields is not only subject to location differences, but also to strong uncertainties.• Public support to measures that protect farmers from production risks affect their risk management and adaptation strategies, most likely by crowding out.• The most reliable scenarios show that climate change only marginally changes the risk environment of farming in Canada & Australia and only marginally increases the demand for insurance.• These scenarios of extreme events and misaligned perceptions of risk lead to low adaptation and are very expensive if the policy mix is wrong. OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 4
    • 5. Risk Management has prominent visibility, and…• The report’s treatment of risk management issues, while rigorous & appropriate, could go even further: – more on the issue of uncertainty. Climate change is more likely to increase uncertainty than risk – Strengthening the link between risk management and institutional issues is important – To reduce uncertainty improve the governance of science and the links between scientists and stakeholders who are users of scientific knowledge, including farmers and policy makers. – Crucial role of information: climate change is an information barrier – Without good symmetric information risk management markets cannot develop – misalignment of risk perceptions due to bad information can induce unsustainable decisions on the farm, or regrettable policy decisions, in areas such as support to insurance. OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 5
    • 6. Making transitions happen• Diversification – “…little systematic information exists to guide farmers … on how to best manage diversification…” • What about the new “CSA Source Book?• No-regrets technologies• Collective action• Information systems• Land tenure (adding water rights) OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 6
    • 7. Tenure effects on land productivity and investmentAdjudicated under the Land Unadjudicated land: no firmAdjudication Act CAP 284 legal title1968, intensive smallholdercultivation with clear freehold title Norton-Griffith, in preparation
    • 8. Monitoring and evaluation: developing indicators … for what?Needs more focus• MRV – measuring GHG emissions cf. FAO• Indicators on Process; Outcome ; Impact• For priority setting? OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 8
    • 9. Green Growth Knowledge Platform: GGGI, OECD, UNEP, W orld Bank Moving towards a common approach on GG IndicatorsOECD Trade and Agriculture 9Directorate
    • 10. Policy Coherence Best way to achieve? Productivity/Income Sequestration/Mitigation Reduced emissions Resilience/Adaptation Agriculture Forestry Environment CSA REDD+ PES
    • 11. unsustainable agricultureclimate smart agriculture
    • 12. Other recent policy documents:Foresight (UK) OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 12
    • 13. Comparing recent policy documents:UNEP: Avoiding Future Famines OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 13
    • 14. Comparing recent policy documentsCCAFS Achieving food security in the face of climate change Key Recommendations: 1. Integrate food security and sustainable agriculture into global and national policies 2. Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture and food systems in the next decade 3. Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other negative environmental impacts of agriculture 4. Target populations and sectors that are most vulnerable to climate change and food insecurity 5. Reshape food access and consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional needs are met and to foster healthy and sustainable eating habits worldwide 6. Reduce loss and waste in food systems, particularly from infrastructure, farming practices, processing, distribution and household habits 7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that encompass human and ecological dimensions OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 14
    • 15. Comparing recent policy documentsG-20: IO report to Mexican Presidency 2012 OECD Trade and Agriculture 15 Directorate
    • 16. Recent policy documents (OECD)Global Food Security Challenges(2013) The challenge of ensuring global food security is first and foremost one of raising the incomes of the poor so that they can afford the food they need to lead healthy lives. Agricultural development has a key role to play in raising incomes, but it is essential to foster wider economic growth that creates diversified rural economies with jobs both within and outside agriculture. Large increases in investment will be needed to raise incomes and increase the supply of food sustainably. Most of the investment will need to come from the private sector, but governments have an important role in establishing the framework conditions. Public investment supported by development aid can complement and attract private investment OECD Trade and Agriculture 16 Directorate
    • 17. Recent policy documents (OECD)Global Food Security Challenges(2013) Priority areas for public spending include education and skills, research and innovation, and rural infrastructure, together with backstopping to ensure improved nutrition. Trade will have an increasingly important role to play in ensuring global food security. Countries need to avoid policies that distort world markets and make them a less reliable source of food supplies. Supply-side investments may be needed to maximise the benefits of trade reform, along with complementary measures to minimise the costs. The latter include social protection, adjustment assistance and the development of risk management tools. OECD Trade and Agriculture 17 Directorate
    • 18. What’s missing: water• Report notes: “In situations with decreasing rainfall and increasing rainfall variability, there are many ways of improving water harvesting and retention (through the use of pools, dams, pits, retaining ridges, increasing soil organic matter to heighten the water retention capacity of soils)) and water-use efficiency (irrigation systems)” OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 18
    • 19. Figure 1. The agricultural production cycle, as impacted by climate change Source: FAO (2010), "Climate change, water and food security", FAO water reports n°36. OECD Trade and Agriculture 19 Directorate
    • 20. What’s missing: waterSome analysts consider the rising demand forwater from non-ag sectors will dwarf theprobable effects of climate change. More recentliterature is less sanguine, projectingcompetition for surface and groundwater fromagriculture leading to price increases andimpacts on food security. Do the authors belong to the firstschool, as implied by the relative negligence ofwater issues in their list of research priorities? OECD Trade and Agriculture 20 Directorate
    • 21. WATER: Global water demand to increase by 55% by 2050Global water demand: Baseline scenario Km3 6 000 5 000 electricity Rapidly growing 4 000 manufacturing water demand from 3 000 cities, industry and livestock energy suppliers will 2 000 domestic challenge water for 1 000 irrigation to 2050. irrigation 0 2000 2050 World Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from 21 IMAGE
    • 22. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water Global water demand: Baseline scenario, 2000 and 2050 6 000 irrigation domestic livestock manufacturing electricityKm3 5 000 +140% 4 000 +400% 3 000 +130% 2 000 1 000 0 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 22 OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output : IMAGE
    • 23. Shiklomanov, 2003 Global irrigation water withdrawals 2030WRG, 2009 5000 FAO-Bruinsma, 2009 IIASA-Fischer, 2008, without CC 4500 IIASA-Fischer, 2008, with CC 4000 Alcamo, 2007, A2 PBL-OCDE, 2011 BAU 3500 Shen, 2008, A1b Shen, 2008, A2 3000 Shen, 2008, B1km3/year 2500 Shen, 2008, B2 IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Rainf.Opt 2000 IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Rainf.Pess IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Irrigated Area 1500 IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Irrigated Yields 1000 IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Trade IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, ComprAssessment 500 IFPRI-Rosegrant, 2002, Irr.Consumption, BAU IFPRI-Rosegrant, 2002, Irr.Consumption, 0 Crisis 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 IFPRI-Rosegrant, 2002, Irr.Consumption, Sust.
    • 24. OECD Trade and Agriculture 24Directorate
    • 25. What’s missing: biofuels• More research is needed on: – Historical variability surrounding biofuel-crop yields, and likely future variability, especially with climate change – Status of arable lands registered as degraded or abandoned, and how they are actually being used – Relative costs of producing crops like Jatropha curcas (physic nut) on different categories of marginal or degraded land – Likely areas in sub-Saharan Africa at risk for development of crops for biofuels under different assumptions of cost and legal access – Likely demand on arable lands of policies that encourage biofuels made from non-edible biomass – Feasibility of the ideas propounded by enthusiasts of bio-char OECD Trade and Agriculture 25 Directorate
    • 26. Annual crop-yield improvements needed 2006-20 to provide food, with and without biofuels (E4Tech Scenario: 10.3% of world transport fuel) 6.0% assuming no land-use change compared with 1996-2006 trend & FAPRI projections 5.0% 2.6%Compound Annual Growth Rate in Yield 4.0% 3.0% 0.9% 3.8% 2.0% 0.8% 3.1% 1.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% -0.1% Cereals Cereals Cereals Oilseeds Oilseeds Oilseeds Sugar Sugar Sugar Palm Palm Palm Crops Crops Crops -1.0% 1996-2006 Trend Non Biofuel food demand Biofuel, adjusted for by products FAPRI 2006-2019 Projection
    • 27. What’s missing: collaboration• Where is the World Bank? – Despite having adopted whole heartedly “climate smart agriculture” and a key financier of the CG system, the WB is absent in the report. – Reference is made to WB insofar as “FAO and the World Bank developed a method for screening agricultural investment plans to identify climate smart agricultural investments”• And other MDBs? OECD Trade and Agriculture 27 Directorate
    • 28. What’s missing: relative role of adaptation and mitigation OECD Trade and Agriculture 28 Directorate
    • 29. Agriculture-related emissions could be 15 gigatons in 2050Sources: Foodincreases fromBruinsma 2009(FAO);Various sourcesother
    • 30. What’s missing: relative roles of adaptation and mitigation 1. Assessing vulnerability to climate change today 2. Assessing vulnerability tomorrow Plausible scenarios of the future 3. Adaptation Options to address food security challenges from climate change 4. Mitigation Options to reduce GHG concentrations while supporting sustainable food security and poverty reduction 5. The need for coordination and coherence of food security and climate change policies and actions OECD Trade and Agriculture 30 Directorate
    • 31. HLPE Report: Mitigation options that also enhance food security • Direct – Farming practices that increase soil carbon in degraded soils – Fertilizer management that reduces fertilizer application by increasing plant uptake – Livestock and manure management that reduce GHG emissions and lower farmer cost per unit of output – Water management that saves water and reduces GHG emissions – Crop residue management that increases soil health and reduces GHG emissions • Indirect – Manage food consumption for lower emissions and more efficient food systems – Reduce emissions from land use change for agriculture by increasing agricultural productivity
    • 32. CSA approaches must be context sensitive… Context A Context B Most vulnerable and food insecure areas Productivity Adaptation Mitigation Productivity Adaptation Adaptation Productivity Mitigation Mitigation
    • 33. What’s missing: Time• Report’s opening sentence: – “In this paper we focus on the issue of how climate change affects the way the agricultural systems and the people that manage and govern the need to change in the next 20 years to order to achieve food security, and how FAO and CGIAR can support that change.” OECD Trade and Agriculture 34 Directorate
    • 34. Transformation in agricultureAndy Jarvis, CCAFS, Accelerating Adaptation
    • 35. Incremental, Systems & Transformational adaptation• Incremental adaptation: Farmers are adapting all the time; is it at a rate that is fast enough? Are the incremental adjustments in the right direction to enable the systematic adjustment• Systems adaptation supports incremental adaptation and also ensures that the direction farmers take is along the correct trajectory; involves design of suitable policies; Incentivizing the changes that are needed; and overcoming technological constraints• Transformational adaptation : Different livelihood systems for rural communities; different structural make-up of the agricultural and food system at national and regional scales; Crucial to plan for transformational change, and not wait until it happens – Andy Jarvis, CCAFS, Accelerating Adaptation, Hanoi Sep 2012
    • 36. What’s missing: methodologies for setting prioritiesFrom listing adaptation options, need for investment portfolios, with robust numbers on costs, benefits and constraints• MAC curves for agriculture?• Counting “wins””? – win-win-(win (-win))s vs. trade-offs• Prioritise by indicators of vulnerability? OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 37
    • 37. Malawi: Building the evidence base on marginal costs of agricultural-based mitigation 1. agronomy_dry 150 100 2. Integrated nutrient management _dry 50 3. Tillage/residue 0 mgmt_dry $/t CO2e 4. Integrated nutrient -50 management_moist -100 5. Tillage/residue mgmt_moist -150 6. agronomy_moist -200 -250 7. agroforestry_dry -300 8. agroforestry_moist 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 t CO2e abated/year 9. water mgmt_dry 10. water mgmt_moist 9
    • 38. Winning, Losing or Standing Still? Tony Simons, ICRAFClimate Smart Agriculture seeks to:- Increase productivity/income (P&I)- Increase Carbon sequestration (Seq)- Reduce agriculture GHG emissions (REm)- Strengthen farmers’ resilience/adaptation (Adp) win-win-win-win? or tradeoffs?
    • 39. Win LoseFour Wins P&I/Seq/REm/Adp√√√Three Wins P&I/Seq/REm Adp P&I/Seq/Adp REm Zero grazing √ P&I/REm/Adp Seq of ruminants Seq/REm/Adp P&I Fertilised maize onTwo wins P&I/Seq REm/Adp poor soils P&I/REm Seq/Adp??? P&I/Adp Seq/REm Seq/REm P&I/Adp Seq/Adp P&I/REm REm/Adp P&I/Seq IAASTDOne win P&I Seq/REm/Adp X Seq P&I/REm/Adp REm P&I/Seq/Adp Rubber Adp P&I/Seq/REmXXXNo wins plantation P&I/Seq/REm/Adp Amazon in
    • 40. Vulnerability ?• CCAFS-Target populations and sectors that are most vulnerable to climate change and food insecurityHLPE:1. Assessing vulnerability to climate change today2. Assessing vulnerability tomorrow OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 41
    • 41. Thank You For more information: dale.andrew@OECD.orgVisit our website: www.oecd.org/agriculture click on “Sustainable Agriculture”

    ×