Food security and conflict
Presenters:
Clemens Breisinger and Jean-Francois Maystadt

Partnering for Impact
IFPRI-European...
Food insecurity is a consequence of conflict
The economic and social costs of conflict are high

More than 1.5 billion pe...
Example: conflict in Yemen, 2011
$US 5-11 bill. are needed for supporting
post-conflict transition
 IFPRI with support of...
Food insecurity is also a cause of conflict
Particularly in food import dependent countries with a large share of net
food...
Improving food security
can reduce the risk of conflict

Example:
EC-IFPRI collaboration on
National Food Security Strateg...
7-Point Action Plan for Yemen

1.
2.

3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Leverage the petroleum subsidy reform to promote food security throu...
Food insecurity and conflict in Somalia
Vicious cycle of violence?
Violence in Somalia, 1997-2009

Source: Maystadt et al....
What is the role of droughts for conflict?
Vicious cycle in Somalia

Source: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme wea...
Drought and Violence in Somalia
Quotes from practitioners
“with the frequency of droughts increasing over the last decade,...
Theoretical framework
Drought => Livestock Prices fall => Poverty => Conflict?
• Drought likely to translate into sharp de...
Regression analysis confirms:

Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia
• Method : FE 2SLS with corrected standard errors ...
Droughts are a security threat for the future
Method: Predicted changes in conflict by 2030, based on
IPCC climate models ...
Enhancing resilience through a balanced
food security and development strategy
 Climate change adaptation and food securi...
Planning food security interventions
for improved resilience
Towards an innovative M&E mapping approach
IFAD projects and conflict
IFAD operates in several heavily conflict affected areas
IFAD projects and climate variability
Climate variability is high at many IFAD project sites
IFAD projects and child malnutrition
IFAD operates in many governorates that show high levels of
child malnutrition
Take a closer look at your project sites
Example IFAD Egypt
Key messages
Food insecurity is both a consequence and a cause for
conflict – thus improving food security can reduce the...
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Partnership for Impact Event_Brussels_Breisinger

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"Partnering for Impact: IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security" presentation by Clemens Breisinger, IFPRI and Jean-Francois Maystadt on 25 November 2013 in Brussels, Belgium.

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Partnership for Impact Event_Brussels_Breisinger

  1. 1. Food security and conflict Presenters: Clemens Breisinger and Jean-Francois Maystadt Partnering for Impact IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security November 25, 2013. The Thon Hotel EU, Rue de la Loi 75, Brussels, Belgium Financial support for this research is provided by the CGIAR-PIM, EU, GIZ, and IFAD
  2. 2. Food insecurity is a consequence of conflict The economic and social costs of conflict are high More than 1.5 billion people live in fragile and conflictaffected countries and many of them are poor/food insecure (World Bank 2011) For each year of conflict, economic growth may fall by 2.3 percent and that it may take a total of 17 years before the country catches up with its preconflict position (Collier, 2007) Conflict has a severe impacts on human health, education, and nutrition (Chamarbagwala and Moran, 2011; Akresh and de Walque, 2008; Shemyakina, 2011)
  3. 3. Example: conflict in Yemen, 2011 $US 5-11 bill. are needed for supporting post-conflict transition  IFPRI with support of EU analyzed conflict impacts and scenarios for transition  Strong association between food insecurity and conflict in Yemen  The conflict led to an estimated 12 percentage point increase in food insecurity Transition scenarios: Prevalence of calorie deficiency (%) 40 35 30 25 Slow transition Accelerated transition Stagnation Baseline (no uprising) 2015 Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. http://www.ifpri.org/publication/managing-transition-yemen -
  4. 4. Food insecurity is also a cause of conflict Particularly in food import dependent countries with a large share of net food consumers, such as the Arab world, are highly vulnerable  Well known causes of conflict are: poverty, underemployment; inequalities and poor governance (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004; Fearon, 2010, Macours, 2011)  Food insecurity (Brinkman and Hendrix, 2011; Pinstrup-Andersen and Shimokowa, 2008; Arezki and Brückner, 2011, Bellemare 2011, Berazneva and Lee 2013)  Food insecurity at national and household levels are the key cause of conflict in the Arab world (Maystadt et al. 2012;) Source: Maystadt et al. 2012: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/doesfood-security-matter-transition-arab-countries
  5. 5. Improving food security can reduce the risk of conflict Example: EC-IFPRI collaboration on National Food Security Strategy for Yemen
  6. 6. 7-Point Action Plan for Yemen 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Leverage the petroleum subsidy reform to promote food security through direct transfers and investments Improve the business climate to foster pro-food secure private investments in promising sectors Combine qat reduction policies with support for non-qat agricultural development Improve risk management and enforce competition among cereal importers and consider physical grain storage for emergencies Implement the water sector strategy decisively Better target public investment to the food insecure and improve service provision, especially in rural areas Launch high-level awareness campaigns for family planning, healthy nutrition, women’s empowerment and qat Source: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/does-food-security-matter-transition-arab-countries 6
  7. 7. Food insecurity and conflict in Somalia Vicious cycle of violence? Violence in Somalia, 1997-2009 Source: Maystadt et al. (2013), based on ACLED (2012). Estimated food security conditions, 9/2011 Source: DFID(2012).
  8. 8. What is the role of droughts for conflict? Vicious cycle in Somalia Source: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks . IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R AJAE).
  9. 9. Drought and Violence in Somalia Quotes from practitioners “with the frequency of droughts increasing over the last decade, it’s become increasingly difficult for people to recover from one shock before one strikes. Such shocks drive conflict over land and water, disrupt economic activity and leave young people vulnerable to unemployment and recruitment into extremist groups, like Al-Shabaab”, Paul Weisenfeld (USAID) “This [the drought] has been a boon for Al-Shabab’s recruitment campaign because when you don’t have purchasing power to buy the food, you will be encouraged to be recruited because then you will be saved, and you can use that salary or you could be given food”, Bruno Geddo (UNHCR Somalia Representative)
  10. 10. Theoretical framework Drought => Livestock Prices fall => Poverty => Conflict? • Drought likely to translate into sharp decrease in livestock prices: • Prices, largely supply driven (with the exception of major demand shocks outside of Somalia) • Oversupply of thin animals, due to drought-related reduction in water and livestock feeding resources • Liquidating process to smooth consumption over time follows a particular order : from more to less liquid assets (small to less liquid livestocks) • Selling productive assets, particularly livestock, is often the only remaining – but largely inefficient – strategy to smoothen consumption • Downward price movement amplified by information asymmetry in favor of intermediary traders Source: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks . IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R AJAE).
  11. 11. Regression analysis confirms: Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia • Method : FE 2SLS with corrected standard errors (Conley 1999) • Intuition : Estimate the drought-price-conflict using monthly variations within each region between 1997 and 2009 • Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia (71% due to one SD) • Specific channel: drought-induced economic shocks on the livestock sector and resulting income changes Source: Maystadt, , Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R in AJAE).
  12. 12. Droughts are a security threat for the future Method: Predicted changes in conflict by 2030, based on IPCC climate models (20 models*3 scenarios) and estimated responses to drought Source: Maystadt, , Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R in AJAE).
  13. 13. Enhancing resilience through a balanced food security and development strategy  Climate change adaptation and food security strategies contribute to conflict prevention  Building resilience through establishing effective coping mechanisms and generating and diversifying income earning opportunities is critical for both conflict prevention and climate change adaptation.  Investment in pastoralist activities:  Improved livestock resilience to drought: adoption of droughtresistant animals, veterinary health services, emergency feed, and better access to water but without disturbing the (well-functing) livestock value chain  Help de-stocking and re-stocking through improved access to markets, insurance and credit markets, weather insurance schemes  Support income diversification: Irrigation, Migration and Education Source: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP. Forthcoming in World Development
  14. 14. Planning food security interventions for improved resilience Towards an innovative M&E mapping approach
  15. 15. IFAD projects and conflict IFAD operates in several heavily conflict affected areas
  16. 16. IFAD projects and climate variability Climate variability is high at many IFAD project sites
  17. 17. IFAD projects and child malnutrition IFAD operates in many governorates that show high levels of child malnutrition
  18. 18. Take a closer look at your project sites Example IFAD Egypt
  19. 19. Key messages Food insecurity is both a consequence and a cause for conflict – thus improving food security can reduce the risk of conflict Droughts increase the risk of local civil conflict. Hence, climate change adaptation measures are critical for preventing conflicts Innovative mapping tools can help governments and development agencies to plan, monitor and evaluate their food security projects for enhanced resilience

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