Partnership for Impact Event_Brussels Robinson


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"Partnering for Impact: IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security" presentation by Sherman Robinson, IFPRI, on 25 November 2013 in Brussels, Belgium.

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  • When we use climate change models with a range of possible GHG emissions the outcomes by the end of this century range from near stabilization if all GHG emissions stop today (the orange line to over 3 degrees more (the A2 red line).
  • Partnership for Impact Event_Brussels Robinson

    1. 1. Foresight Studies of Global Food Security: Model-Based, Long-Run Scenario Analysis Sherman Robinson, IFPRI Dirk Willenbockel, IDS Partnering for Impact - Brussels, 25 November 2013 IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security
    2. 2. Long-Run Issues for the Global Food System • Can we feed a world of 9+ billion people in 2050 and later? • Can we do so sustainably in a world characterized by increasing effects of climate change? • Many studies, many using “scenario analysis” and long-run models of the global agricultural system • UK “Foresight Project” led by John Beddington, then UK Chief Scientific Advisor -> Upcoming JRC Foresight Global Food Security Study 2014: Assessing trends in view of guiding future EU policies
    3. 3. Five Challenges A Balancing future agricultural demand and supply sustainably B Addressing the threat of future volatility in the food system C Ending Hunger D Meeting the challenges of a low emissions world E E Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world
    4. 4. Climate Change: Average temperatures could increase substantially SRES scenario differences small until after 2050 (but GCM differences big!) Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)
    5. 5. Climate Change: Average annual precipitation, 2000-2050 CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm)
    6. 6. Climate Change: Average annual precipitation, 2000-2050 MIROC GCM, A1B (mm)
    7. 7. Conclusions from Scenario Analysis for the Foresight Project and IFPRI Report • 20th century steady decline in agricultural prices is over • Sustainable economic growth is a powerful form of climate change adaptation • Agricultural productivity research output in hands of farmers can reduce poverty and improve climate change resilience • Open international trade is essential for dealing with uncertainties and asymmetric shocks • Mitigation is critical • Adaptation to 2050 is manageable, but less certain beyond
    8. 8. AgMIP: Model Comparison Project 10 global economic models focusing on agriculture General equilibrium models Partial equilibrium models AIM NIES GCAM PNNL ENVISAGE FAO/WB GLOBIOM IIASA EPPA MIT IMPACT IFPRI FARM USDA MAgPIE PIK GTEM ABARES CAPRI IPTS MAGNET LEI-WUR Nelson, G.C. et al (2013) Proceedings National Academy of Sciences USA (in press) Special Issue Agricultural Economics 45(1), 2014 (in press)
    9. 9. Scenario Comparison • Standardised scenarios and common protocol for reporting • S1: Reference scenario harmonised on SSP2: (1) population growth, (2) real GDP growth, and (3) agricultural productivity trends, all under “current” climate. • No changes in policy orientation • Not designed to be realistic, but to provide a “benchmark” for model comparisons • Variations to include uncertainties about major drivers • S2: SSP3 (pessimistic economic and demographic drivers) • S3-S6: Climate Change scenarios (RCP8.5 based on two GCMs and two crop models) • S7-S8: Bioenergy (S7: no 2nd generation biofuels; S8: 2nd generation biofuels) • Key issues concern the future of agricultural prices, land use, food availability, and international trade
    10. 10. Reference Scenario: World Market Prices 2050 (2005 = 1) 2.2 1.4 AGR WHT CGR RIC RUM 1.3 Price index (2005** = 1) 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 General Equilibrium Models Partial Equilibrium Models 0.6 AIM ENVISAGE EPPA FARM ** trended 2005, i.e. hypothetical in the absence of short-term shocks GTEM MAGNET GCAM GLOBIOM IMPACT MAgPIE
    11. 11. Key Findings - Reference Scenario • Results continue to differ across models, despite significant efforts on harmonization of assumptions about drivers • Ag Price index +40% to -15% relative to global GDP deflator • Qualitatively similar—20th century declines in prices will not continue in the 21st century • Global crop area +25% to -5% • Range is narrower than comparisons at the beginning of the project • Comparison process helped to improve models • Some convergence through dialogue across teams • Variability small relative to comparison with past • Real agricultural price index between 1960s and 2000s: -4% p.a. – Projections to 2050: -0.4% to +0.7% p.a.
    12. 12. Key Findings - Reference Scenario • Selected results largely common across models • Global expansion of agricultural production, stronger for sugar, oilseeds, ruminant meat, weaker for staples like wheat, rice • Strong consumption growth in Africa, Middle-East • Strong production growth in Africa, Latin America • Expanding net import requirements in MENA • Expanding crop exports from North America, Oceania • Expanding meat exports from Brazil
    13. 13. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Prices (Relative to reference scenario, 2050) 80.0 S3 S4 S5 S6 % change relative to Reference Scenario S1 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 AIM ENVISAGE FARM GTEM MAGNET GCAM GLOBIOM IMPACT MAgPIE CAPRI
    14. 14. Knowledge Gaps: Priorities for Future Research • Representation of endogenous technical change in agriculture • How elastic is productivity in response to price changes and R&D? • Representation of land use change • How elastic is ag land supply? How costly is land conversion? • Representation of Demand • How elastic is demand in response to income and price changes • Need for parallel progress in empirical research • Role of continued dialogue across disciplines and modelling teams