Food Security Foresight:
some reflections

Partnership for Impact
IFPRI-European research Collaboration
Brussels, 25 Novem...
From the shifting balance of constant needs…
Food

Population, income
and demand drivers
Policy challenges
in globalised
m...
… to a framework for analysing food security challenges
Macro linkages
(GDP, interest
rates, exchange
rates)

Domestic and...
Long term commodity price trends
(World Bank MUV-deflated indices, 2005 = 100)
450
400
350
300

250
200
150
100
50

Agricu...
Cumulative price change
Period

2000-12

2006-12

Agriculture

+

+

Fertilisers

+ 286 %

+ 115 %

Energy

+ 261 %

+

55...
Crude oil, Brent ($/bbl)

Source: World Bank.

6

Crude oil, WTI ($/bbl
Coal, Australian ($/mt)

2013M01

2012M01

2011M01...
Natural gas, US

Source: World Bank.

7

Natural gas, Europe
Liquefied natural gas, Japan

2012M12

2012M01

2011M01

2010...
World annual growth in consumption/population (%)

* Based on estimations for 2011-2012.

Size of bubbles represents total...
What is new in the Foresight debate?
What sort of "insecurities" drive the current policy debate?
•
•
•

Recent commodity ...
Thank you

10
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Partnering for Impact_Brussels Haniotis

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"Partnering for Impact: IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security" presentation by Tassos Haniotis, Director, Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission, on 25 November 2013 in Brussels, Belgium.

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Partnering for Impact_Brussels Haniotis

  1. 1. Food Security Foresight: some reflections Partnership for Impact IFPRI-European research Collaboration Brussels, 25 November 2013 Tassos Haniotis Director Economic analysis, perspectives and evaluations DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission
  2. 2. From the shifting balance of constant needs… Food Population, income and demand drivers Policy challenges in globalised markets Fibre Supply constraints and productivity Feed 2 Fuel
  3. 3. … to a framework for analysing food security challenges Macro linkages (GDP, interest rates, exchange rates) Domestic and trade policies (from G-2 and 3 pillars to G-20 and export bans) Weather variability increased due to climate change Food supply and demand interaction Energy links (high energy prices, biofuels) Financialisation of commodities 3
  4. 4. Long term commodity price trends (World Bank MUV-deflated indices, 2005 = 100) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Agriculture Fertilizers Energy Source: World Bank. Note: 2013 figures are forecasts as of September 2013. 4 Metals & minerals 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 1948 0
  5. 5. Cumulative price change Period 2000-12 2006-12 Agriculture + + Fertilisers + 286 % + 115 % Energy + 261 % + 55 % Metals & minerals + 217 % + 44 % Wheat + 275 % + 163 % Maize + 337 % + 245 % Rice + 278 % + 185 % Soybeans + 279 % + 220 % Sector (real) 82 % 61 % Crops (nominal) 5
  6. 6. Crude oil, Brent ($/bbl) Source: World Bank. 6 Crude oil, WTI ($/bbl Coal, Australian ($/mt) 2013M01 2012M01 2011M01 2010M01 2009M01 2008M01 2007M01 2006M01 2005M01 2004M01 2003M01 2002M01 2001M01 2000M01 1999M01 1998M01 1997M01 1996M01 1995M01 1994M01 1993M01 1992M01 1991M01 1990M01 1989M01 1988M01 1987M01 1986M01 1985M01 1984M01 1983M01 1982M01 Long term energy price trends (World Bank nominal prices) 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0
  7. 7. Natural gas, US Source: World Bank. 7 Natural gas, Europe Liquefied natural gas, Japan 2012M12 2012M01 2011M01 2010M01 2009M01 2008M01 2007M01 2006M01 2005M01 2004M01 2003M01 2002M01 2001M01 2000M01 1999M01 1998M01 1997M01 1996M01 1995M01 1994M01 1993M01 20 1992M01 1991M01 1990M01 1989M01 1988M01 1987M01 1986M01 1985M01 1984M01 1983M01 1982M01 Long term natural gas price trends (World Bank nominal prices, $/mmbtu) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
  8. 8. World annual growth in consumption/population (%) * Based on estimations for 2011-2012. Size of bubbles represents total average consumption over a period. 8 Sources: FAO, USDA
  9. 9. What is new in the Foresight debate? What sort of "insecurities" drive the current policy debate? • • • Recent commodity price developments: volatility, co-movement and level Price volatility and price co-movement are declining However, the agricultural price level is expected to stay higher in the future Three challenges linked to research and modelling needs • • • Global: energy-link shifts from biofuels to gas, impacts input use and competiveness Developing world: dilemma from opposite impact of high prices on rural vs urban poor Developed world: how to address ″jointness″ between private and public goods? Role of research in getting the "problem definition" right • • • Important to anticipate future problems, instead of assuming continuation of past ones Need to target research to broader, often inter-disciplinary, policy-relevant issues Need to communicate in simple, targeted and result-oriented ways with policy makers 9
  10. 10. Thank you 10
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