Partnering for Impact Brussels Marelli

1,195 views

Published on

"Partnering for Impact: IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security" presentation by Luisa Marelli, European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre (JRC) Institute for Energy and Transport, Sustainable Transport Unit, on 25 November 2013 in Brussels, Belgium.

Published in: Education, Technology
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,195
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
12
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Partnering for Impact Brussels Marelli

  1. 1. ASSESSING ILUC EMISSIONS IN EU BIOFUELS LEGISLATION: EC-JRC and IFPRI COLLABORATION Luisa Marelli European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre (JRC) Institute for Energy and Transport, Sustainable Transport Unit 13 December 2013 1
  2. 2. 1. Estimating GHG emissions from increased LUC JRC took IFPRI (2011) cropland expansion results and applied its own independent methodology - to distribute land use changes onto different land types − to estimate the resulting GHG emissions from changes in Soil Organic Carbon (SOC), Biomass carbon stocks and N2O (Nitrous Oxide) from mineralized soils JRC Cropland Spatial allocation Methodology (CSAM) The new cropland is spatially distributed according to specific criteria such as:  Historical trends on cropland expansion  Agro-ecological suitability of the land for a given crop  Proximity to similar crops  Protected areas 13 December 2013 2
  3. 3. JRC and IFPRI used two different methodologies/databases but found similar GHG emissions • Biomass carbon emissions mainly depend on fraction of deforestation, and values are very similar in the two studies • Less loss of carbon from mineral soil in JRC analysis • Peat emissions are far more important (about 50% of total emissions) in JRC work. JRC used a more updated value for peat emission factor.
  4. 4. JRC-SAM vs IFPRI Land use model: crop specific scenarios – Overall emissions
  5. 5. 2. New Sensitivity Analyses on results of MIRAGE model [2011] 2020 EU wheat yield corrected No expansion of ‘other oilseeds’ to major crops Freeze food consumption The three effects combined 5
  6. 6. 2020 EU wheat yield corrected REASON HOW IFPRI 2011 projections of EU wheat yield in 2020 were much higher than the DG-AGRI and OECD-FAO projections for the same year The EU27 wheat yield has been reduced in the baseline scenario 2020 from 8 t/ha in the 2011 report to 5.5 t/ha. This now matches the AG-LINK estimates for 2020. RESULTS • Ethanol from wheat scenario is affected • The resulting ILUC emissions and area are moderately higher than the 2011 values (+15% and +20% respectively) 6
  7. 7. 2020 EU wheat yield corrected REASON HOW IFPRI 2011 projections of EU wheat yield in 2020 were much higher than the DG-AGRI and OECD-FAO projections for the same year The EU27 wheat yield has been reduced in the baseline scenario 2020 from 8 t/ha in the 2011 report to 5.66 t/ha. This now matches the AG-LINK estimates for 2020. RESULTS • Ethanol from wheat scenario is affected • The resulting ILUC emissions and area are moderately higher than the 2011 values (+15% and +20% respectively) 7
  8. 8. No expansion of ‘other oilseeds’ to major crops REASON HOW IFPRI 2011 work assumed that major crops could replace the crop category “other oilseeds” as easily as any other arable crop. The JRC discovered that in EU, this led to areas of olives being replaced by grains. IFPRI has restrained the expansion of other cropping activities into “other oilseeds” for the EU. It avoids the expansion of major crops into other oilseeds (such as olive tree). RESULTS • Slight effect on the final ILUC emissions for key EU commodities such as sugar beet, cereals and rapeseed. • lLUC emissions increase from 0% to 29% compared to the IFPRI 2011 values
  9. 9. No expansion of ‘other oilseeds’ to major crops RESULTS • Slight effect on the final ILUC emissions for key EU commodities such as sugar beet, cereals and rapeseed. • lLUC emissions increase from 0% to 29% compared to the IFPRI 2011 values
  10. 10. Freeze food consumption REASON HOW The crop-price increases cause a reduction in consumption (for food) as well as an increase in crop supply. This means that part of the crop needed for the biofuel comes from reduction in the other competing sectors, principally food consumption, and this comes free of ILUC. Food consumption is maintained constant in household and agrofood sector demand RESULTS • Compared to the 2011 report, several crops, except sugar beet and rapeseed, show an increase in GHG emissions
  11. 11. Freeze food consumption REASON HOW The crop-price increases cause a reduction in consumption (for food) as well as an increase in crop supply. This means that part of the crop needed for the biofuel comes from reduction in the other competing sectors, principally food consumption, and this comes free of ILUC. Food consumption is maintained constant in household and agrofood sector demand RESULTS • Compared to the 2011 report, several crops, except sugar beet and rapeseed, show an increase in GHG emissions
  12. 12. Cumulative results Combining the two main corrections on the 2020 EU wheat yield and the assumption on the expansion into other oilseeds in EU, the results are: - Increase of annualised LUC emissions from 0% to more than 30% compared to the 2011 report values - Increase of cropland area from 0% to more than 30% compared to the 2011 report values
  13. 13. Cumulative results Combining thethe three effects (EU wheat yield, no expansion into other all two main corrections on the 2020 EU wheat yield and the assumptionEU and freeze food), the results are: the results are: oilseeds in on the expansion into other oilseeds, Increase of cropland area from annualised LUC emissions - Increase of LUC emissions from 30% - -Change of cropland area from -24% from 3% 100% compared to the to almost to 60%compared to the to26% to 140% compared to the more than 70% compared to 2011 report values 2011 report values the 2011 report values
  14. 14. The JRC is the European Commission’s in-house science service, and it provides the independent science for policy decisions • JRC work on IFPRI-MIRAGE model aims at reducing uncertainties in ILUC estimates and helping policy makers in understanding ILUC results • JRC is also looking at other models and making comparative studies, but supports IFPRI work on ILUC as the most sophisticated for EU biofuels. 13 December 2013 14

×