Nourishing Plants and People Maene Presentation 19 November 10

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably Luc M. Maene, Director General, IFA POLICY SEMINAR Washington D.C., USA, 19 November 2010

Nature of food crises Shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies Widespread lack of access Severe localized food insecurity Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: FAO, 2009

World population growth (billion people) Undernourishment in the Developed countries Developing countries world (million people) 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: UN Source: FAO Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

Changes in food consumption patterns due to income growth OECD production p non-OECD production p OECD consumption non-OECD consumption World production % change 60 2018 compared to 50 2006-2008 40 average 30 20 10 0 -10 Wheat Coarse Rice Oilseeds Oilmeals Vegetable Sugar g grains oils Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Adapted from OECD-FAO (2009)

Renewable energy development World biofuel production Billion litres 160 Ethanol production Biodiesel production 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: OECD-FAO

World cereal production and area by region 2009p PRODUCTION (million tonnes) AREA (million hectares) ( ) Europe 122 73 465 334 N. America 468 Asia 1192 C. & S. America 109 49 160 163 Africa 36 20 Oceania Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: FAPSTATS 2010

Population trends and nitrogen use during the 20th century World population % world population no Haber-Bosch nitrogen Haber Bosch fed by Haber-Bosch nitrogen Haber Bosch Average fertilizer input Meat production 50 Average fertilize input (kg N ha-1 yr-1) 6000 Meat production (kg perso -1 yr-1) World populatio (millions) 5000 40 % Wor population 4000 on 30 er rld 3000 World population 20 2000 N on n 1000 10 0 0 1900 1950 2000 Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Adapted from Erisman, et al. 2008

World cereal production and fertilizer use 1961- 1961-2010 (f) Million tonnes 2500 Cereal production Fertilizer consumption 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: FAOSTAT and IFADATA

World fertilizer consumption trends Mt nutrients Developing Economies p g 180 Transition Economies 160 Developed Economies 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 ---------------------------------------1961 to 2008 ------------------------------------- 1961 Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: IFA

Total fertilizer use by crop at the global level in 2006/07 (%) Fruits & veg. 17 Other crops, 15 Maize Mai e 16 Oil palm, 1 Soybean, 3 S b Sugar crops, 4 Wheat 15 Cotton, Cotton 4 15 Other OS, 5 Other CG 5 CG, Rice Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: IFA Agriculture

Total fertilizer use by crop for the main countries in 2007/08 Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: IFA Agriculture

Fertilizer application to biofuel crops 2008/09 3.0% of 3 total N Others EU: rapeseed for biodiesel Million tonn nutrients  Impact of 2 Brazil: cane for ethanol cellulosic USA: maize for ethanol ethanol on K nes 4.8% demand ? d d 1 2.5%  What about transition to M algae as 0 feedstock ? N P2O5 K2O Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

Agriculture is being squeezed Environ- Conserving mental Climate biodiversity concerns change Population Rising Ri i Limited growth incomes, available diet arable diversification di ifi i land Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

A moving target MULTIPLYING CHANGING LAND USE WATER DEMANDS ON CONDITIONS FOR AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURE • Urbanization • Growing scarcity, • New cropping • Changing (often on fertile changing patterns, declining weather patterns land), distribution, soil pools of (climate change), deforestation, contamination, nutrients, new soil degradation, reforestation, salinization… recycling loops in rural wetlands nutrient cycles… y depopulation… p p disappearing… Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

Limited immediate availability of additional arable land Arable area World population m2 per person in billion 3000 9.5 9 2800 8.5 2600 8 7.5 75 2400 7 6.5 2200 6 2000 5.5 1996 2015 2030 | Source: Lammel (2007), Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably citing FAO: Towards 2015/30 (2002)

Areas of physical and economic water scarcity ON AVERAGE • 1,000 litres of water are needed to produce a kg of maize • 1,500 litres to produce a kg of wheat • 2 500 litres for a kg of rice 2,500 Little or no water scarcity • 4,000 litres for a kg of poultry Physical water scarcity y y • 15,000 litres for a kg of beef Approaching physical water scarcity • 3,000 litres per person to Economic water scarcity produce our daily food intake Not estimated Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: IWMI

Yield gaps and relative land availability in different countries Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: World Bank Report, 2010

Nitrogen use efficiency Fertilizer consumption by region, 2007/08 (Kg/ha) Kg grain / kg N applied East A i E t Asia 243 West Europe 178 USA North America 151 Latin America 130 South Asia 125 Central Europe p 125 CHINA WORLD 118 North Africa 78 South Africa 41 Africa 17 Sub-Saharan Afr 6 Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: (left) IFDC, (right) modified from Bruulsema and Snyder, 2009

Efficiency: a win-win-win situation win-win-  Farmers face relatively high input costs and low crop prices = excessive fertilizer use means wasting money  Industry has higher needs for energy and raw materials = higher costs  Nutrient losses have environmental and human health impacts that are expensive to mitigate Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

Opportunites in ‘mature’ and ‘developing’ agricultural sectors developing Industry to be engaged in the development of:  educational programmes targeting farmers on the use  lless of the most efficient technologies, IPNM, SSNM, fertilizer balanced fertilization the “4R” concept, among others fertilization, 4R concept per unit  best agricultural practices including fertilizer best output management practices (e.g. through computer-based decision support systems, tools facilitating the  b tt better adoption of SSNM practices, tools for deep placement services of urea granules, fertigation) g g )  Better performing products such as slow- and  higher controlled-release fertilizers showing a smaller profits price-differential price differential with conventional fertilizers Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

Opportunites in ‘stagnating’ agricultural sectors In countries where not enough fertilizer is used, the industry should:  raise the awareness of the policy makers so that they create urgently the necessary enabling environment to mitigate soil fertility degradation  propose solutions ttailored tto th specific needs off l ti il d the ifi d the subsistence farmers in these areas (e.g. small-size fertilizer bags). g )  new markets Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

Industry initiatives y  Africa forum  F Farming Fi t i First  Fertilizer use and human health  Eff ti last-mile d li Effective l t il delivery  Protect&Sustain The global fertilizer industry’s product industry s stewardship initiative  Task force on climate change  Water management initiative Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

Beyond the factory gate…  Greater investment in agriculture  More effective development aid  Reform in trade and domestic policies Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

A BETTER, MORE SECURE FUTURE… …a new, efficient, dynamic and competitive p agricultural sector will unlock hopep for millions of children! Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: Bationo,2009

Nourishing Plants and People Maene Presentation 19 November 10

by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) on Nov 22, 2010

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Nourishing Plants and People Maene Presentation 19 November 10 Presentation Transcript