NCDs, Agriculture and Food

NCDs, Agriculture and Food
Tim Lang
Centre for Food Policy, City University London
[email_address]
Paper to IFPRI seminar
Washington DC
Sept 7, 2011

1. The Problem

NCDs
Well documented problem for decades
Academics: Ancel Keys et al since 1970
WHO et al since 1980s
WHO & FAO in joint position since 2003
Need for some honesty
It’s not been taken seriously by Developing Country food and farming perspectives
Seen as ‘Western’ / rich society problem
Complicates the ‘productionist’ policy paradigm
Lacked serious champions

Yet strong evidence on NCDs (WHO Global Status 2011 report) http://www.who.int/nmh/publications/ncd_report2010/en/
NCDs caused 63% of deaths in 2008 worldwide
c.80% of those were in low & middle income countries
Main causes of premature death:
cardiovascular (17 m), cancer (7.6 m), respiratory disease (4.2 m), diabetes (1.3 m).
NCDs have 4 common risk factors:
tobacco
exercise
alcohol
poor diets

WHO’s mooted ‘solutions’
‘ Best Buys’
Smoking restrictions
alcohol access, ads, costs;
Reduce salt intake
Replace trans-fats by polyunsaturated fat
Promote public awareness about diet and physical activity
Also….
Restrict marketing of foods and soft drinks
Food taxes to favour healthy diets
Healthy school enviro’t
Built enviro’t to encourage activity

2011 UN High Level meeting
To be welcomed
Follows up on:
2002/3 WHRs
Global Strategy 2004
but could be another case of…
Mismatch between evidence and policy
already subject to lobbying
See concerns in The Lancet
We must not let a mess happen

2. What’s driving this food world?

The Productionist Paradigm (the success of 1930s science) Lang & Heasman ( 2004) Food Wars
Science + capital + distribution  output  cheaper food  health
= progress

Linking food, health, income & justice John Boyd Orr (1880-1971) public health researcher 1 st D-G of FAO Sicco Mansholt (1908-1995) 1 st European Agriculture Commissioner for 1958-1972

This doesn’t fit the 21 st century
It addressed the Malthusian problem, but…
Relied on oil to raise production
Mined the environment
Assumed more food is good for health
Assumed humans eat rationally
Assumes ever expanding choice = public good
Focused policy attention on the farm
Ignores how power has shifted down the supply chain  traders and retailers

NCDs are cultural problems too
Nutrition Transition is cultural not just nutrients
Importance of social aspirations
e.g. meat = wealth / social status
Impact of ‘consciousness industries’:
marketing, advertising, media
Forms of waste have changed
Food is more than nutrients + eco-footprint

Fat is overproduced yet consumers are told to eat less Source: WHO/FAO (2003) Diet, Nutrition and the Prevention of Chronic Diseases . WHO TR 916 p.18

3. What is needed?

Battle of 5 policy positions
‘ It’s all dangerous, so avoid, ignore & resist ’
Neo-cons, trading nations, some (not all) big business
‘ Business-as-usual’ (consumer responsibility):
Pragmatists, slow incrementalism
‘ Leave it to companies’ : (single company action)
Eg Unilever 2010, PepsiCo (bits), SAI
‘ Sustainable intensification ’: (production focus)
UK Foresight (Jan 2011), FAO Sust’ble Crop Intensific’n Div
‘ Whole system change ’: (structural focus)
Policy outer circle, NGOs, green businesses

C21st food system faces complex demands a world ‘omni-standards’ and ‘poly-values’ Quality Social values
Taste
Seasonality
Cosmetic
Fresh (where appropriate)
Authenticity
Pleasure
Identity
Animal welfare
Equality & justice
Trust
Choice
Skills (citizenship)
Environment Health
Climate change
Energy use
Water
Land use
Soil
Biodiversity
Waste reduction
Safety
Nutrition
Equal access
Availability
Social status/ affordability
Information & education
Economy Governance
Food security & resilience
Affordability (price)
Efficiency
True competition & fair returns
Jobs & decent working conditions
Fully internalised costs
Science & technology evidence base
Transparency
Democratic accountability
Ethical values (fairness)
International aid & development

Facing reality
It’s taken 60-70 years to build the current unsustainable food system
We need to start big change over c 30-40 yrs
No one solution will fit everywhere
Some new frameworks & principles are emerging
But there’s a danger of neo-Malthusianism panicking the governments into neo-productionism
Eg FAO arguing 70% more food needed by 2050

4 key realities of contemporary food and health governance
Food Policy is multi-sectoral
Multi level governance is both above and below the nation state
Private sector governance of food supply chains is now more important
Health is weak compared to other interests

Messages to IFPRI
Think Sustainable Food Systems, not just farms
More emphasis on consumption not just production
More on plants, less on meat & dairy
New forms of waste (contracts & specific’ns)
Equitable distribution means less in the West
Full cost accounting for food prices
Poly-value approach to food systems

Mind- and data-shifts required From... To.... How to increase output for current diets What do bodies need and how can farming grow it How to mine resources for food How to build production on ecological principles How to lower prices How to reflect full costs How to be more efficient How to redefine what is meant by efficiency

change what & how we eat = sustainable diets FOOD WHY WHAT Meat Cancer; water; land use Offer less; mainly or only grass-fed Coffee / tea Water; labour conditions Less; only fair trade; drink water Fruit All year round? Seasonal Fish Health vs. fish stock collapse Eat less; only accredited – wild catch & farmed Vegetables Health; water; GHGs; Kenyan beans? Seasonal greens

Conclusions
We have much to do
No simple solutions
Different solutions for different locations
UN High Level Meeting offers a pause moment
The current policy discourse is too focussed on production

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NCDs, Agriculture and Food

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