Many studies have pointed out the need for adaptation to reduce poverty. Our findings turn this around and point to the importance of reducing poverty to support adaptation. An important part of raising income is exploiting natural advantages through international trade. As climate change alters comparative advantage, an open trading system is essential to manage the changes.
Note that in the optimistic scenario African per cap GDPgrowth rates are higher than global rates. But in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios, some parts of Africa have rates that are less than the global average.
Two GCMs and two SRES scenarios, chosen for wide range of global average precipitation outcomes. MIROC has higher temperatures and more precipitation on average but greater variation across the globe. Data from 4th IPCC assessment. Perfect mitigation is extremely unlikely. It would mean an immediate stop to all GHG emissions AND the momentum given the existing GHGs in the atmosphere.
Price increases with perfect mitigation and baseline areMaize – 52%Rice – 29%Wheat – 25%
Maize price mean increase is 101 % higherRice price mean increase is 55 % higherWheat price mean increase is 54All these are for the baseline overall scenario
Maize price mean increase is 101 % higher; max is 131, min is 83Rice price mean increase is 55; max is 57, min is 53Wheat price mean increase is 54; max is 66, min is 45All these are for the baseline overall scenario
Key messagesWith income per capita growth rates in the optimistic scenario, average kcals per day growth very rapidly in the developing countries. Climate change reduces calorie availability, partially offsetting the benefits from income growthThe kink around 2025 is due to our assumptions of a switch to celluosic ethanol, reducing biofuels use of food.
For low-income developing countries, the mean decline in malnourished children is 8.6 percent between 2010 and 2050 with the baseline scenario. It is 32.3 percent for middle-income countries.Overall is the best. The question is what will this cost?The irrigation improvements have small effect in low-income developing countries because they don’t have much irrigation.Cassava effects are small for the low-income group as a whole but the gains are concentrated in some really poor countries – DRC for example
Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050Scenarios, Results, Policy Options Mark W. Rosegrant and Gerald C. Nelson International Food Policy Research Institute December 1, 2010
Acknowledgements The authors Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You Project Foresight: The Future of Food and Farming as catalyst for this effort Philip Thornton and Peter Jones for downscaled climate scenarios Jawoo Koo for crop modeling assistance Several anonymous reviewers Page 2
Food Security Challenges Population growth 50 percent more people by 2050 Almost all in developing countries Income growth in developing countries More demand for high valued food (meat, fish, fruits, vegetables) and feed for livestock Increased demand on land and water
Demands for energy and climate mitigation as well as food, feed, and fiber
Climate change – a threat multiplier Reduced productivity of existing varieties, cropping systems Page 3
New messages for sustainable food security and climate change resilience Address poverty with broad-based income growth Investment in agricultural productivity growth is key adaptation policy
On-farm: water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management
Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputs
Strengthen international trade agreements Page 4
Outline Future scenarios for climate change and food security Impacts: crop yields, supply, demand, and trade Assessing the food security challenge with and without climate change Page 5
CHARACTERIZING PLAUSIBLE FUTURESOverall (economic and demographic) scenarios under varying climate futures Page 6
Overall scenariosPlausible futures for population and GDP growth Optimistic High GDP and low population growth Baseline Medium GDP and medium population growth Pessimistic Low GDP and high population growth Page 7
Global and regional GDP per-capita growth scenarios Page 8 Global growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%) African GDP per capita growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%)
Climate Scenarios Our modeling approach, for each overall scenario Two GCMs – MIROC (Japanese) and CSIRO (Australian) Two SRES scenarios – A1B and B1 Perfect mitigation Page 9
FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESULTSCombining biophysical and socio-economic drivers Page 10
Page 11 Income and population growth drive prices higher(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
Page 12 Climate change adds to price increases(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography) Mean effect from four climate scenarios
Page 13 Climate change scenario effects differ(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography) Minimum and maximum effect from four climate scenarios
Page 14 Economy and population scenarios alter price outcomes(Price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Changing economy and demography) Rice price increase smallest in optimistic scenario as Asian demand falls with higher income Maize price increase largest in pessimistic scenario as food demand rises with low income and high population growth
Impact on Calorie Consumption Average = 12 % decline in developing countries due to climate change (Average of four GCM, A1, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios)
Impact on Childhood Malnutrition Average = 11% increase in developing countries due to climate change (Average of four GCM, A1, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios)
Assessing food security and climate change outcomes Developedcountries All developingcountries Low-income developing countries
Exploring productivity enhancements Increase annual yield growth by 40 percent in developing countries Commercial (hybrid) maize yield improvement to 2 percent per year in selected countries Wheat yield improvement to 2 percent per year in selected countries Cassava yield improvement to 2 percent in selected countries Irrigation efficiency Page 18
Productivity improvements reduce malnutrition (change in number of malnourished children in 2050, million) Page 19
Conclusions Sustainable economic growth is a powerful form of climate change adaptation Agricultural productivity research output in hands of farmers can reduce poverty and improve climate change resilience Open international trade is essential for dealing with uncertainties Mitigation is critical Adaptation to 2050 is manageable, but less certain beyond Page 20