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Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
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Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant

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IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food Security, Farming, …

IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food Security, Farming,
and Climate Change to 2050" by Mark Rosegrant

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  • Many studies have pointed out the need for adaptation to reduce poverty. Our findings turn this around and point to the importance of reducing poverty to support adaptation. An important part of raising income is exploiting natural advantages through international trade. As climate change alters comparative advantage, an open trading system is essential to manage the changes.
  • Note that in the optimistic scenario African per cap GDPgrowth rates are higher than global rates. But in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios, some parts of Africa have rates that are less than the global average.
  • Two GCMs and two SRES scenarios, chosen for wide range of global average precipitation outcomes. MIROC has higher temperatures and more precipitation on average but greater variation across the globe. Data from 4th IPCC assessment. Perfect mitigation is extremely unlikely. It would mean an immediate stop to all GHG emissions AND the momentum given the existing GHGs in the atmosphere.
  • Price increases with perfect mitigation and baseline areMaize – 52%Rice – 29%Wheat – 25%
  • Maize price mean increase is 101 % higherRice price mean increase is 55 % higherWheat price mean increase is 54All these are for the baseline overall scenario
  • Maize price mean increase is 101 % higher; max is 131, min is 83Rice price mean increase is 55; max is 57, min is 53Wheat price mean increase is 54; max is 66, min is 45All these are for the baseline overall scenario
  • Key messagesWith income per capita growth rates in the optimistic scenario, average kcals per day growth very rapidly in the developing countries. Climate change reduces calorie availability, partially offsetting the benefits from income growthThe kink around 2025 is due to our assumptions of a switch to celluosic ethanol, reducing biofuels use of food.
  • For low-income developing countries, the mean decline in malnourished children is 8.6 percent between 2010 and 2050 with the baseline scenario. It is 32.3 percent for middle-income countries.Overall is the best. The question is what will this cost?The irrigation improvements have small effect in low-income developing countries because they don’t have much irrigation.Cassava effects are small for the low-income group as a whole but the gains are concentrated in some really poor countries – DRC for example
  • Transcript

    • 1. Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050Scenarios, Results, Policy Options
      Mark W. Rosegrant and Gerald C. Nelson
      International Food Policy Research Institute
      December 1, 2010
    • 2. Acknowledgements
      The authors
      Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You
      Project Foresight: The Future of Food and Farming as catalyst for this effort
      Philip Thornton and Peter Jones for downscaled climate scenarios
      Jawoo Koo for crop modeling assistance
      Several anonymous reviewers
      Page 2
    • 3. Food Security Challenges
      Population growth
      50 percent more people by 2050
      Almost all in developing countries
      Income growth in developing countries
      More demand for high valued food (meat, fish, fruits, vegetables) and feed for livestock
      Increased demand on land and water
      • Demands for energy and climate mitigation as well as food, feed, and fiber
      Climate change – a threat multiplier
      Reduced productivity of existing varieties, cropping systems
      Page 3
    • 4. New messages for sustainable food security and climate change resilience
      Address poverty with broad-based income growth
      Investment in agricultural productivity growth is key adaptation policy
      • On-farm: water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management
      • 5. Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputs
      Strengthen international trade agreements
      Page 4
    • 6. Outline
      Future scenarios for climate change and food security
      Impacts: crop yields, supply, demand, and trade
      Assessing the food security challenge with and without climate change
      Page 5
    • 7. CHARACTERIZING PLAUSIBLE FUTURESOverall (economic and demographic) scenarios under varying climate futures
      Page 6
    • 8. Overall scenariosPlausible futures for population and GDP growth
      Optimistic
      High GDP and low population growth
      Baseline
      Medium GDP and medium population growth
      Pessimistic
      Low GDP and high population growth
      Page 7
    • 9. Global and regional GDP per-capita growth scenarios
      Page 8
      Global growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%)
      African GDP per capita growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%)
    • 10. Climate Scenarios
      Our modeling approach, for each overall scenario
      Two GCMs – MIROC (Japanese) and CSIRO (Australian)
      Two SRES scenarios – A1B and B1
      Perfect mitigation
      Page 9
    • 11. FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESULTSCombining biophysical and socio-economic drivers
      Page 10
    • 12. Page 11
      Income and population growth drive prices higher(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
    • 13. Page 12
      Climate change adds to price increases(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
      Mean effect from four climate scenarios
    • 14. Page 13
      Climate change scenario effects differ(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
      Minimum and maximum effect from four climate scenarios
    • 15. Page 14
      Economy and population scenarios alter price outcomes(Price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Changing economy and demography)
      Rice price increase smallest in optimistic scenario as Asian demand falls with higher income
      Maize price increase largest in pessimistic scenario as food demand rises with low income and high population growth
    • 16. Impact on Calorie Consumption
      Average = 12 % decline in developing countries due to climate change (Average of four GCM, A1, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios)
    • 17. Impact on Childhood Malnutrition
      Average = 11% increase in developing countries due to climate change (Average of four GCM, A1, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios)
    • 18. Assessing food security and climate change outcomes
      Developedcountries
      All developingcountries
      Low-income developing countries
    • 19. Exploring productivity enhancements
      Increase annual yield growth by 40 percent in developing countries
      Commercial (hybrid) maize yield improvement to 2 percent per year in selected countries
      Wheat yield improvement to 2 percent per year in selected countries
      Cassava yield improvement to 2 percent in selected countries
      Irrigation efficiency
      Page 18
    • 20. Productivity improvements reduce malnutrition (change in number of malnourished children in 2050, million)
      Page 19
    • 21. Conclusions
      Sustainable economic growth is a powerful form of climate change adaptation
      Agricultural productivity research output in hands of farmers can reduce poverty and improve climate change resilience
      Open international trade is essential for dealing with uncertainties
      Mitigation is critical
      Adaptation to 2050 is manageable, but less certain beyond
      Page 20
    • 22. www.ifpri.org
      Thank you

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