Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant

Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050Scenarios, Results, Policy Options
Mark W. Rosegrant and Gerald C. Nelson
International Food Policy Research Institute
December 1, 2010

Acknowledgements
The authors
Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You
Project Foresight: The Future of Food and Farming as catalyst for this effort
Philip Thornton and Peter Jones for downscaled climate scenarios
Jawoo Koo for crop modeling assistance
Several anonymous reviewers
Page 2

Food Security Challenges
Population growth
50 percent more people by 2050
Almost all in developing countries
Income growth in developing countries
More demand for high valued food (meat, fish, fruits, vegetables) and feed for livestock
Increased demand on land and water
Demands for energy and climate mitigation as well as food, feed, and fiber
Climate change – a threat multiplier
Reduced productivity of existing varieties, cropping systems
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New messages for sustainable food security and climate change resilience
Address poverty with broad-based income growth
Investment in agricultural productivity growth is key adaptation policy
On-farm: water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management
Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputs
Strengthen international trade agreements
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Outline
Future scenarios for climate change and food security
Impacts: crop yields, supply, demand, and trade
Assessing the food security challenge with and without climate change
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CHARACTERIZING PLAUSIBLE FUTURESOverall (economic and demographic) scenarios under varying climate futures
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Overall scenariosPlausible futures for population and GDP growth
Optimistic
High GDP and low population growth
Baseline
Medium GDP and medium population growth
Pessimistic
Low GDP and high population growth
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Global and regional GDP per-capita growth scenarios
Page 8
Global growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%)
African GDP per capita growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%)

Climate Scenarios
Our modeling approach, for each overall scenario
Two GCMs – MIROC (Japanese) and CSIRO (Australian)
Two SRES scenarios – A1B and B1
Perfect mitigation
Page 9

FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESULTSCombining biophysical and socio-economic drivers
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Income and population growth drive prices higher(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)

Climate change adds to price increases(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
Mean effect from four climate scenarios

Climate change scenario effects differ(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
Minimum and maximum effect from four climate scenarios

Economy and population scenarios alter price outcomes(Price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Changing economy and demography)
Rice price increase smallest in optimistic scenario as Asian demand falls with higher income
Maize price increase largest in pessimistic scenario as food demand rises with low income and high population growth

Impact on Calorie Consumption
Average = 12 % decline in developing countries due to climate change (Average of four GCM, A1, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios)

Impact on Childhood Malnutrition
Average = 11% increase in developing countries due to climate change (Average of four GCM, A1, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios)

Assessing food security and climate change outcomes
Developedcountries
All developingcountries
Low-income developing countries

Exploring productivity enhancements
Increase annual yield growth by 40 percent in developing countries
Commercial (hybrid) maize yield improvement to 2 percent per year in selected countries
Wheat yield improvement to 2 percent per year in selected countries
Cassava yield improvement to 2 percent in selected countries
Irrigation efficiency
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Productivity improvements reduce malnutrition (change in number of malnourished children in 2050, million)
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Conclusions
Sustainable economic growth is a powerful form of climate change adaptation
Agricultural productivity research output in hands of farmers can reduce poverty and improve climate change resilience
Open international trade is essential for dealing with uncertainties
Mitigation is critical
Adaptation to 2050 is manageable, but less certain beyond
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Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant

by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

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Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant Presentation Transcript