Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant
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Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant

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IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food Security, Farming,

IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food Security, Farming,
and Climate Change to 2050" by Mark Rosegrant

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  • Many studies have pointed out the need for adaptation to reduce poverty. Our findings turn this around and point to the importance of reducing poverty to support adaptation. An important part of raising income is exploiting natural advantages through international trade. As climate change alters comparative advantage, an open trading system is essential to manage the changes.
  • Note that in the optimistic scenario African per cap GDPgrowth rates are higher than global rates. But in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios, some parts of Africa have rates that are less than the global average.
  • Two GCMs and two SRES scenarios, chosen for wide range of global average precipitation outcomes. MIROC has higher temperatures and more precipitation on average but greater variation across the globe. Data from 4th IPCC assessment. Perfect mitigation is extremely unlikely. It would mean an immediate stop to all GHG emissions AND the momentum given the existing GHGs in the atmosphere.
  • Price increases with perfect mitigation and baseline areMaize – 52%Rice – 29%Wheat – 25%
  • Maize price mean increase is 101 % higherRice price mean increase is 55 % higherWheat price mean increase is 54All these are for the baseline overall scenario
  • Maize price mean increase is 101 % higher; max is 131, min is 83Rice price mean increase is 55; max is 57, min is 53Wheat price mean increase is 54; max is 66, min is 45All these are for the baseline overall scenario
  • Key messagesWith income per capita growth rates in the optimistic scenario, average kcals per day growth very rapidly in the developing countries. Climate change reduces calorie availability, partially offsetting the benefits from income growthThe kink around 2025 is due to our assumptions of a switch to celluosic ethanol, reducing biofuels use of food.
  • For low-income developing countries, the mean decline in malnourished children is 8.6 percent between 2010 and 2050 with the baseline scenario. It is 32.3 percent for middle-income countries.Overall is the best. The question is what will this cost?The irrigation improvements have small effect in low-income developing countries because they don’t have much irrigation.Cassava effects are small for the low-income group as a whole but the gains are concentrated in some really poor countries – DRC for example

Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant Mark Rosegrant Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 Mark Rosegrant Presentation Transcript

  • Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050Scenarios, Results, Policy Options
    Mark W. Rosegrant and Gerald C. Nelson
    International Food Policy Research Institute
    December 1, 2010
  • Acknowledgements
    The authors
    Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You
    Project Foresight: The Future of Food and Farming as catalyst for this effort
    Philip Thornton and Peter Jones for downscaled climate scenarios
    Jawoo Koo for crop modeling assistance
    Several anonymous reviewers
    Page 2
  • Food Security Challenges
    Population growth
    50 percent more people by 2050
    Almost all in developing countries
    Income growth in developing countries
    More demand for high valued food (meat, fish, fruits, vegetables) and feed for livestock
    Increased demand on land and water
    • Demands for energy and climate mitigation as well as food, feed, and fiber
    Climate change – a threat multiplier
    Reduced productivity of existing varieties, cropping systems
    Page 3
  • New messages for sustainable food security and climate change resilience
    Address poverty with broad-based income growth
    Investment in agricultural productivity growth is key adaptation policy
    • On-farm: water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management
    • Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputs
    Strengthen international trade agreements
    Page 4
  • Outline
    Future scenarios for climate change and food security
    Impacts: crop yields, supply, demand, and trade
    Assessing the food security challenge with and without climate change
    Page 5
  • CHARACTERIZING PLAUSIBLE FUTURESOverall (economic and demographic) scenarios under varying climate futures
    Page 6
  • Overall scenariosPlausible futures for population and GDP growth
    Optimistic
    High GDP and low population growth
    Baseline
    Medium GDP and medium population growth
    Pessimistic
    Low GDP and high population growth
    Page 7
  • Global and regional GDP per-capita growth scenarios
    Page 8
    Global growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%)
    African GDP per capita growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%)
  • Climate Scenarios
    Our modeling approach, for each overall scenario
    Two GCMs – MIROC (Japanese) and CSIRO (Australian)
    Two SRES scenarios – A1B and B1
    Perfect mitigation
    Page 9
  • FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESULTSCombining biophysical and socio-economic drivers
    Page 10
  • Page 11
    Income and population growth drive prices higher(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
  • Page 12
    Climate change adds to price increases(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
    Mean effect from four climate scenarios
  • Page 13
    Climate change scenario effects differ(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
    Minimum and maximum effect from four climate scenarios
  • Page 14
    Economy and population scenarios alter price outcomes(Price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Changing economy and demography)
    Rice price increase smallest in optimistic scenario as Asian demand falls with higher income
    Maize price increase largest in pessimistic scenario as food demand rises with low income and high population growth
  • Impact on Calorie Consumption
    Average = 12 % decline in developing countries due to climate change (Average of four GCM, A1, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios)
  • Impact on Childhood Malnutrition
    Average = 11% increase in developing countries due to climate change (Average of four GCM, A1, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios)
  • Assessing food security and climate change outcomes
    Developedcountries
    All developingcountries
    Low-income developing countries
  • Exploring productivity enhancements
    Increase annual yield growth by 40 percent in developing countries
    Commercial (hybrid) maize yield improvement to 2 percent per year in selected countries
    Wheat yield improvement to 2 percent per year in selected countries
    Cassava yield improvement to 2 percent in selected countries
    Irrigation efficiency
    Page 18
  • Productivity improvements reduce malnutrition (change in number of malnourished children in 2050, million)
    Page 19
  • Conclusions
    Sustainable economic growth is a powerful form of climate change adaptation
    Agricultural productivity research output in hands of farmers can reduce poverty and improve climate change resilience
    Open international trade is essential for dealing with uncertainties
    Mitigation is critical
    Adaptation to 2050 is manageable, but less certain beyond
    Page 20
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    Thank you