Urgent Actions Needed to Address Emerging Food Security Challenges

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Shenggen Fan
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute

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  • In Asia, self-reported food insecurity declined sharply in 2007/08, especially in China and India and more modestly in Indonesia before rising again in 2009. This is consistent with the fact that food inflation was modest in all three countries whilst economic growth was rapid. Self-reported food insecurity is estimated from the World Gallup Poll on whether a household has experienced difficulties affording food over the previous 12 months. The Gallup Poll was conducted over the period 2005-2010 and it covered almost 90 percent of the developing world population. While such data may not be ideal, it offers a useful barometer for gauging the welfare impacts of the global food crisis.
  • The Bangladesh study examined two components of the Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) program: (1) Income-Generating VGD (IGVGD) and (2) Food Security VGD (FSVGD). Both target poor women. IGVGD has a built-in mechanism to provide credit and training on income-generating activities in agriculture; The FSVGD program provides a combination of food and cash to program participants.
  • Urgent Actions Needed to Address Emerging Food Security Challenges

    1. 1. Urgent Actions Needed to Address Emerging Food Security Challenges<br />Shenggen FanDirector General<br />International Food Policy Research Institute<br />International Workshop on “Climate Change, Price Volatility, and Food Security: Perspectives from Southeast Asia” <br />Jakarta, April 20, 2011<br />
    2. 2. Key messages<br />Global food insecurity persists, including in Southeast Asia<br />Food price volatility, biofuel expansion, and climate change are major emerging food security challenges<br />Urgent actions are needed to address these challenges<br />Emerging economies have a key role to play in enhancing global food security<br />
    3. 3. Many are still hungry despite progress<br />Number of undernourished persons <br />Source: Data from FAO 2011<br />Source: United Nations 2010<br />
    4. 4. Global food price hikes and volatility<br />Global hikes since June 2010<br />Maize: 90%<br />Wheat: 82%<br />Volatility due to<br />Natural disasters<br />Panic purchases<br />Trade restrictions, etc.<br />High domestic food inflation (yoy)<br />China: 11% (Feb. 2011)<br />India: 11% (Feb. 2011) <br />Indonesia: 14% (Mar. 2011)<br />Source: Data from FAO 2011<br />
    5. 5. Domestic prices are also rising rapidly<br />Source: FAO 2011<br />
    6. 6. High and volatile food prices affect food security, but outcomes vary<br />Self-reported food insecurity in select countries<br />Source: Headey 2011<br />
    7. 7. Rising energy prices influence food security<br />Rising energy prices cause food prices to increase, rather than the reverse (Heady and Fan 2010) <br />Rising energy prices make biofuels more profitable, rather than agricultural production more expensive (Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008)<br />Source: Data from IMF 2011<br />
    8. 8. Biofuels raise food security and environmental concerns<br />Crop-based biofuels:<br /><ul><li>compete with food availability and push up food prices
    9. 9. increase CO2 emissions through conversion of e.g. rainforests and grasslands</li></ul>Yearsto repay carbon debt for 9 scenarios of biofuel production <br />(Fargione et al. 2008)<br />
    10. 10. Climate change adds to pressure on food systems<br />Climate change impact on production: Irrigated rice, 2050<br />Increased intensity and rate of natural disasters e.g. droughts and floods<br />Large yield losses and production cuts <br />SE Asia total production = -17%<br />Source: IFPRI 2011<br />
    11. 11. Natural disasters undermine food security<br /># of persons affected, 2009<br />Negativeimpacts on the poor and hungry through:<br /><ul><li>crop and asset losses
    12. 12. agric. and non-agric. infrastructure damages
    13. 13. farm and non-farm income declines
    14. 14. higher expenditure costs, etc.</li></ul>Source: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 2011<br />Disaster risk management should be integrated ex ante into food security strategies (Haen 2008)<br />
    15. 15. Urgent actions needed to address emerging food security challenges<br />
    16. 16. Invest in agriculture and smallholder productivity<br />Source: Data from IFPRI SPEED database<br />Improve access to quality seeds, fertilizer, financial and extension services, crop insurance, new technologies, rural infrastructure <br />
    17. 17. Promote productive social safety nets<br />Bangladesh Vulnerable Group Development program<br />Increased per capita food consumption by 45-66 kcal per taka transfer (Ahmed et al. 2009)<br />Ethiopia Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP)<br /> With access to both safety nets and agric. support, beneficiaries are more food secure and productive (Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009)<br />Nigeria Fadama II Development Project<br />Increased the value of individual productive assets by about 50% (Nkonya et al. 2008)<br />
    18. 18. Emerging economies have a key role to play in enhancing food security (1)<br />Share of global crop production,2007 (%)<br />Share of world GDP, PPP (%)<br />Source: Data from IMF 2011Note: Projections after 2009<br />Source: Data from FAO 2011<br />
    19. 19. Emerging economies have a key role to play in enhancing food security (2)<br />South-South trade: Expanding<br />South-South FDI: ~1/3 of all FDI to developing countries <br />Emerging economies: <br />promote technologies more suitable for developing countries<br />provide buffer during crises<br />provide platform for mutual learning<br />Agriculture and food exports to developing countries (US$ bil.)<br />Source: Data from UNCTAD 2011<br />

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