Adopting Promising Agricultural Technologies: The Role of Policies and Trade

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"Adopting Promising Agricultural Technologies: The Role of Policies and Trade" by Guillaume Gruere, Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Presented at the Food Security in a World of Growing Natural Resource Scarcity event hosted by IFPRI on February 12, 2014 at the Newseum.

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Adopting Promising Agricultural Technologies: The Role of Policies and Trade

  1. 1. ADOPTING PROMISING AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGIES: THE ROLE OF POLICIES AND TRADE Guillaume GRUERE Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development IFPRI Technology Summit, Washington DC February 12, 2014
  2. 2. • A major modelling effort – Global simulations with 4 types of models*3crops*11 technologies*2 climate scenarios… • Leading to interesting and useful results – Prioritization of technologies by crop, yield and food security potentials disaggregated by region 1. IFPRI report
  3. 3. IMPACT results 2050: cumulative yield effects relative to the Baseline -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Developing countries wheat rice maize -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Developed countries • Relative rankings vary by crop, technology and region. • Still 4 technologies seem to lead in yield potential: N use efficiency, heat tolerance, no till and precision agriculture. Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
  4. 4. • Modelling side – Tools and baseline scenario • Resource focus could be more emphasized – Analysing productivity with respect to multiple resources • Climate change mitigation potential • Moving to implementation – Adoption and acceptance – Role of policies and the private sector A basis for further work?
  5. 5. 2. Implications for OECD countries -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Cumulative yield effects Europe Developed -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Cumulative yield effects North America wheat rice maize • Priority technological options for adaptation: • North America: Heat tolerance in maize, no till in wheat and maize • Europe: Precision agriculture, heat tolerance and no till in wheat • Nitrogen use efficiency for three crops and two regions. • What role for government to pursue these options? Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
  6. 6. Public policy and climate change adaptation 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Number of OECD countries (out of 34) with specific adaptation policies in agriculture Member states Member states accounting for EU policies Source: Ongoing work.
  7. 7. In the case of identified top technologies: Farmers GovernmentsCompanies No till Heat tolerance N use efficiency Precision agriculture  Potentially limited direct role of OECD governments  But indirect role in supporting an enabling environment for innovation, development, adoption and use, in particular via :  Science and technology policies, agriculture policies, trade policies
  8. 8. • Free(er) trade allows : 3. The role of international trade Heat tolerance Competition Spill over of knowledge Open markets for inputs and outputs No till N use efficiency Precision agriculture Precision agriculture No till Country A Country B
  9. 9. Three key challenges: 1. Increase exchanges of ideas, research and cooperation 2. Removing distortions to input and output markets 3. Coping with regulatory divergences What does it mean for the selected technologies?
  10. 10. Thank you! Contact information: guillaume.gruere@oecd.org

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