Geraldo Martha Presentation at the Food Security Futures I Conference
Food Security Futures: some comments from a Brazilian perspective Geraldo B. Martha Jr. Food Security Futures Conference, CGIAR-FAO, Dublin, Ireland, 10-11 April
Agricultural ProductivityScenarios and Links toClimate Change Models
Technology adoption vs. price effects Food Price Index Meat Price Index Dairy Price Index Oils Price Index Cereals Price Index Sugar Price Index Technology adoption versus Annual real food price (2002-2004=100) 350,0 relative prices; 300,0 250,0 Relative prices versus land- 200,0 competition; 150,0 Relative prices versus food supply, 100,0 price volatility and (exploitable) 50,0 yield gaps; 0,0 90 91 92 93 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 94 04 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 20FAO (2011) G.B.Martha, work in progress, data from IBGE.
Technology adoption vs. price effects IBGE database, Martha, Jr. (2012).
Agriculture production potential in Brazil 2010 avg. Top Producers Research 12.000 10.000 8.000 Yield (kg/ha) 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 Rice Beans Corn Soybean Wheat 2010, avg. Top Producers Research 350,00 Crop-land area 300,00 Increase constant, 2010 250,00 Million tons values 200,00 Top prod.: 36% 150,00 100,00 Research: 134% 50,00 0,00 R+B+C+S+W Martha Jr. (2012).
Agricultural R&D investiments - the case ofBrazilian Embrapa Around 90% of the ag. research effort in Brazil is public; From 50% to 60% of Brazilian public investment in agricultural R&D goes to Embrapa; Martha Jr. & Lopes (2013), data from IBGE and Embrapa.
Agricultural Developmentin a More Broad Context
Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low- Carbon Agricultural Technologies1) Considering specific regional characteristics and resource endowments and possibilities to foster an inclusive low-carbon emission agriculture strategy: a) What is the cost of this new technology and its economic return / cash flow in comparison with technologies that are already in use in farms? b) What is the new technology’s opportunity cost considering other eligible agricultural activities in the region? How robust is the new technology’s comparative economic performance considering a range of relative prices and terms of trade? c) If this new technology is well implemented in farms, what is the potential to generate strong backward and forward linkages and thus foster virtuous cycles of development in rural areas? Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).
Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low- Carbon Agricultural Technologies1) Considering specific regional characteristics and resource endowments andpossibilities to foster an inclusive low-carbon emission agriculture strategy: d) What are the major changes required in infrastructure and supply chain arrangements relative to a business as usual scenario (and their associated timeline)? e) How dependent on (distorting vs. non-distorting) incentives is such strategy and for how long?2) What is needed to better integrate poor farmers to the value of chain and toincrease their competitiveness in a low-carbon emission agriculture era? Whatare the implications for their well-being and for the rural-to-urban migrationprocess? Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).
Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low-Carbon Agricultural Technologies3) How do distortions to agricultural prices ultimately affect the adoption oflow-carbon emission technologies in the agricultural sector in developed,developing and poor countries or in different regions inside a given country?4) How can a widespread adoption of low carbon emission technologies inagriculture eventually affect the volatility of food supply and prices, and whatare their regional welfare impacts? How factors of production in the economywill adjust to such a stimulus? Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).
Embrapas Strategic Intelligence System"Targeting possible futures, their challenges, solutions and opportunities for the technological development of Brazilian Agriculture"
Thank You ! The solely form of forecasting the future is to build it (Antonio Delfim Netto, May 2012)