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Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture & Innovation in the 21st Century
 

Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture & Innovation in the 21st Century

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Presentation from IFPRI-led side event at Rio+20 Conference

Presentation from IFPRI-led side event at Rio+20 Conference
Presenter: Claudia Ringler, IFPRI

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    Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture & Innovation in the 21st Century Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture & Innovation in the 21st Century Presentation Transcript

    • Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture & Innovation in the 21st Century How to Achieve Food Security in a World of Growing Scarcity: Role of Technology Development Strategies Claudia Ringler, International Food Policy Research Institute Rio + 20 Official Side Event RioCentro, June 16, 2012
    • The State of Food Security  One billion food insecure  Rising/fluctuating food prices  Scarcity of land and water  Competition from bioenergy  Climate change
    • Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food SecurityDemand drivers Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050 Urbanization: 2010 = 52% urban; 2050 = 78% urban Income growth Biofuels and bioenergy • GHG mitigation and carbon sequestration • Conservation and biodiversity
    • -10 100 0 20 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 30 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 World 1990-95 Europe 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 Least developed Region 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50 by region 2050-55 2055-60 2060-65 2065-70 North America 2070-75 2075-80 2080-85 Less developed Region 2085-90 2090-95Source: UN (2011) Number of people added annually, 2095-00
    • Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food SecuritySupply drivers Water and land scarcity Climate change Investment in agricultural research Science and technology policy Management and governance reform
    • Impact of Climate Change in 2050 Rainfed maize (MIROC/A1B) Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2% Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al. 2010)
    • Major Consequences Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed Half of growth in grain demand will be for livestock Significant water/land use for energy production Intense pressure on land and water Decreasing crop productivity Increase in prices for cereals and meats  Impact on caloric availability  Impact on food security for those who spend a large share of their income on food
    • Large number of international land deals, chiefly focused on biofuels & agriculture Source: http://landportal.info/landmatrix
    • Projected increase in per capita meat consumption 2000 2000-2050Latin Am /Carib 58 19N Am /Europe 83 4East + SouthAsia / Pacific 28 24SubsaharanAfrica 11 13Central andW Asia / 20 11N Africa 0 20 40 60 80 100 kg/person per year Source: IFPRI IMPACT Simulations
    • Productivity Issues: R&D Growth rate of yields has been slowing in response to a slowdown of agriculture R&D spending
    • Agricultural TechnologiesPotential to improve: Agricultural production & consumption Food security Trade Environmental qualityStalled by: Polarized debate on high intensity vs. low input Lack of understanding of the impacts of specific technologies at a disaggregated level
    • Technology Assessment Scope Global & Regional • Zero Tillage Nine Technologies • Integrated Soil Fertility Management Three Crops • Irrigation Technologies • Wheat • Water Harvesting • Rice • Drought Tolerance • Heat tolerance • Maize • Nitrogen Use Efficiency • Precision Agriculture • Laser Land Leveling • Organic Agriculture
    • E-survey (300 experts)Typology of Respondents and Answers 352 exploitable answers Technologies / Crops Maize Rice Wheat TotalConventional breeding: heat and drought tolerance 16 7 12 35Conventional breeding: nitrogen use efficiency 4 2 2 8Genetically modified crops: Bt maize 37 37Genetically modified crops: heat and drought tolerance 9 4 6 19Genetically modified crops: nitrogen use efficiency 2 2 4Integrated soil fertility management 38 11 8 57Drip/sprinkler irrigation 12 3 3 18Furrow irrigation 10 10 5 25Laser land leveling 3 1 4Organic agriculture 29 11 5 45Precision agriculture 10 7 9 26Water harvesting 15 4 4 23Zero tillage 34 6 11 51Total 214 70 68 352 60% maize, 20% rice, 20% wheat
    • Results – Impacts on Yields Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
    • Results – Impacts on Production Costs Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
    • Profitability Results – by Crop / Region Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
    • Results – Impacts on Soil Erosion Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
    • Results – Impacts on Water Quality Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
    • Results – Impacts on Energy Consumption Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
    • Results – Impacts on Fertilizer Use Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
    • DSSAT – Crop Modeling System
    • DSSAT – crop modeling systemMANAGEMENT ENVIRONMENTAL Improved variety 10 Planting in NovemberPRACTICES CONDITIONS 8 Crop choice  Climate Regional/Site-specific 6 Cropping – Historic (1901-2005) yield responses 4 – Future (2030s, Planting 2 2050s, 2080s) Yield (t/ha) 0 Inorganic fertilizer – CO2 concentration 100 80  Soil quality 60 Organic 40 40 20 20 0 Irrigation N Fertilizer Application N/A amendment  Land-use history (kg[N]/ha) Threshold (%) Irrigation Tillage OUTPUTS Residue  Biomass  Yield Harvest  Water balance and productivity  Nitrogen balance and productivity  Soil carbon sequestration
    • Management Scenarios Baseline • Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate • For maize, location-specific yield discount factor due to unmanaged pest damage where Bt maize is not adopted • Furrow irrigation, where irrigation is adopted • Sub-optimal planting density & sub-optimal planting window • Conventional tillage • Representative varieties for latitude x altitude zones Technology scenarios • Specific representation of each technology • Area of adoption in 2050 depends on technology Climate change scenario in 2050 • MIROC A1B (without CO2 fertilization)
    • Measure of Technology Yield Impact (%) in 2050For a given country, If technology is new (i.e. not adopted in 2000) 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2050 − 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2050 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑡 % = × 100 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2000 If technology already adopted in 2000 (=baseline) 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2050 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑡 % = × 100 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2000 – Bt maize: Brazil, USA, Argentina, China, India – No-till: Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil, Australia, Uruguay, New Zealand
    • Yield change (%), Global effect in 2050 (MIROC A1B) (-28.8) (-18.9) (-13.5)Numbers in brackets indicate water savings; assumption was that water demands can be fully met Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
    • Yield change (%), Global effect in 2050 (MIROC A1B) Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
    • IRRIGATEDMAIZEINTEGRATEDSOILFERTILITYMANAGEMENT Yield Impact (%) < -70 -69 - -60 -59 - -50 -49 - -40 -39 - -30 RAINFED -29 - -20 -19 - -15 -14 - -10 -9 - -5 -4 - 0 1-5 6 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 50 51 - 60 61 - 70 > 70
    • Yield change (%), Latin America & Caribbean in 2050 (MIROC A1B) Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
    • IRRIGATEDWHEATPRECISIONAGRICULTURE Yield Impact (%) < -70 -69 - -60 -59 - -50 -49 - -40 -39 - -30 RAINFED -29 - -20 -19 - -15 -14 - -10 -9 - -5 -4 - 0 1-5 6 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 50 51 - 60 61 - 70 > 70 Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
    • Linking DSSAT & IMPACTDSSAT IMPACT Technology strategy (combination of Food demand different practices) and supply Effects on Global prices Corresponding and trade geographically Food security differentiated yield and effects malnutrition
    • Percent Change in World Prices ofMaize between 2010 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
    • Percent Change in World Prices ofRice between 2000 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
    • Percent Change in World Prices ofWheat between 2010 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
    • Percent Change in kilocalorie availability per capitaper day between 2010 and 2050 Percent change from 2010 to 2050 12.0% 10.0% Reference (MIROC A1b) 8.0% Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Integrated SFM 6.0% No Till N Use Efficiency 4.0% Precision Ag 2.0% 0.0% Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
    • Percent Change in the Number of Malnourished Children 2050, compared to reference run Percent difference from reference in 20500.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5% Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance-2.0% Integrated SFM-2.5% No Till N Use Efficiency-3.0% Precision Ag-3.5%-4.0%-4.5%-5.0% Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
    • Conclusions Agricultural technology investments—including both “advanced” and “traditional” technologies/management practices are a game changer in terms of yield improvements and national and global food security We now can model disaggregated/locale-specific technology impacts While biophysical potential often exists to significantly increase yields, institutions, governance systems, political will, and poor rural infrastructure remain obstacles to achieving the full technological potential