Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture &       Innovation in the 21st Century  How to Achieve Food Security in a  Worl...
The State of Food Security             One billion food              insecure             Rising/fluctuating food       ...
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and            Food SecurityDemand drivers Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050 Ur...
-10                                                                               100                              0      ...
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and            Food SecuritySupply drivers Water and land scarcity Climate change Invest...
Impact of Climate Change in 2050      Rainfed maize (MIROC/A1B)       Overall production change in shown       existing ar...
Major Consequences Rapid growth in meat consumption and  demand for grains for feed Half of growth in grain demand will ...
Large number of international land deals, chiefly focused on biofuels & agriculture                     Source: http://lan...
Projected increase in per capita                meat consumption                                           2000    2000-20...
Productivity Issues: R&D Growth rate of yields has been slowing in response to  a slowdown of agriculture R&D spending
Agricultural TechnologiesPotential to improve: Agricultural production &  consumption Food security Trade Environmenta...
Technology Assessment Scope Global & Regional   •   Zero Tillage Nine Technologies   •   Integrated Soil Fertility      ...
E-survey (300 experts)Typology of Respondents and Answers                        352 exploitable answers                Te...
Results – Impacts on Yields                              Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
Results – Impacts on Production Costs                          Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
Profitability Results – by Crop / Region                                 Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
Results – Impacts on Soil Erosion                           Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
Results – Impacts on Water Quality                          Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
Results – Impacts on Energy Consumption                          Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
Results – Impacts on Fertilizer Use                            Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
DSSAT – Crop Modeling System
DSSAT – crop modeling systemMANAGEMENT               ENVIRONMENTAL                                                        ...
Management Scenarios Baseline  • Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate  • For maize, location-spec...
Measure of Technology Yield Impact (%) in                 2050For a given country, If technology is new (i.e. not adopted...
Yield change (%), Global effect in 2050 (MIROC A1B)                                    (-28.8)                            ...
Yield change (%), Global effect in 2050 (MIROC A1B)                                       Source: IFPRI crop model results...
IRRIGATEDMAIZEINTEGRATEDSOILFERTILITYMANAGEMENT   Yield Impact (%)      < -70      -69 - -60      -59 - -50      -49 - -40...
Yield change (%), Latin America & Caribbean in 2050 (MIROC A1B)                                              Source: IFPRI...
IRRIGATEDWHEATPRECISIONAGRICULTURE   Yield Impact (%)      < -70      -69 - -60      -59 - -50      -49 - -40      -39 - -...
Linking DSSAT & IMPACTDSSAT                    IMPACT Technology strategy    (combination of       Food demand  different ...
Percent Change in World Prices ofMaize between 2010 and 2050                            Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
Percent Change in World Prices ofRice between 2000 and 2050                            Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
Percent Change in World Prices ofWheat between 2010 and 2050                            Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
Percent Change in kilocalorie availability per capitaper day between 2010 and 2050          Percent change from 2010 to 20...
Percent Change in the Number of Malnourished Children 2050, compared to reference run        Percent difference from refer...
Conclusions Agricultural technology investments—including  both “advanced” and “traditional”  technologies/management pra...
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Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture & Innovation in the 21st Century

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Presentation from IFPRI-led side event at Rio+20 Conference
Presenter: Claudia Ringler, IFPRI

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Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture & Innovation in the 21st Century

  1. 1. Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture & Innovation in the 21st Century How to Achieve Food Security in a World of Growing Scarcity: Role of Technology Development Strategies Claudia Ringler, International Food Policy Research Institute Rio + 20 Official Side Event RioCentro, June 16, 2012
  2. 2. The State of Food Security  One billion food insecure  Rising/fluctuating food prices  Scarcity of land and water  Competition from bioenergy  Climate change
  3. 3. Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food SecurityDemand drivers Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050 Urbanization: 2010 = 52% urban; 2050 = 78% urban Income growth Biofuels and bioenergy • GHG mitigation and carbon sequestration • Conservation and biodiversity
  4. 4. -10 100 0 20 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 30 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 World 1990-95 Europe 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 Least developed Region 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50 by region 2050-55 2055-60 2060-65 2065-70 North America 2070-75 2075-80 2080-85 Less developed Region 2085-90 2090-95Source: UN (2011) Number of people added annually, 2095-00
  5. 5. Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food SecuritySupply drivers Water and land scarcity Climate change Investment in agricultural research Science and technology policy Management and governance reform
  6. 6. Impact of Climate Change in 2050 Rainfed maize (MIROC/A1B) Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2% Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al. 2010)
  7. 7. Major Consequences Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed Half of growth in grain demand will be for livestock Significant water/land use for energy production Intense pressure on land and water Decreasing crop productivity Increase in prices for cereals and meats  Impact on caloric availability  Impact on food security for those who spend a large share of their income on food
  8. 8. Large number of international land deals, chiefly focused on biofuels & agriculture Source: http://landportal.info/landmatrix
  9. 9. Projected increase in per capita meat consumption 2000 2000-2050Latin Am /Carib 58 19N Am /Europe 83 4East + SouthAsia / Pacific 28 24SubsaharanAfrica 11 13Central andW Asia / 20 11N Africa 0 20 40 60 80 100 kg/person per year Source: IFPRI IMPACT Simulations
  10. 10. Productivity Issues: R&D Growth rate of yields has been slowing in response to a slowdown of agriculture R&D spending
  11. 11. Agricultural TechnologiesPotential to improve: Agricultural production & consumption Food security Trade Environmental qualityStalled by: Polarized debate on high intensity vs. low input Lack of understanding of the impacts of specific technologies at a disaggregated level
  12. 12. Technology Assessment Scope Global & Regional • Zero Tillage Nine Technologies • Integrated Soil Fertility Management Three Crops • Irrigation Technologies • Wheat • Water Harvesting • Rice • Drought Tolerance • Heat tolerance • Maize • Nitrogen Use Efficiency • Precision Agriculture • Laser Land Leveling • Organic Agriculture
  13. 13. E-survey (300 experts)Typology of Respondents and Answers 352 exploitable answers Technologies / Crops Maize Rice Wheat TotalConventional breeding: heat and drought tolerance 16 7 12 35Conventional breeding: nitrogen use efficiency 4 2 2 8Genetically modified crops: Bt maize 37 37Genetically modified crops: heat and drought tolerance 9 4 6 19Genetically modified crops: nitrogen use efficiency 2 2 4Integrated soil fertility management 38 11 8 57Drip/sprinkler irrigation 12 3 3 18Furrow irrigation 10 10 5 25Laser land leveling 3 1 4Organic agriculture 29 11 5 45Precision agriculture 10 7 9 26Water harvesting 15 4 4 23Zero tillage 34 6 11 51Total 214 70 68 352 60% maize, 20% rice, 20% wheat
  14. 14. Results – Impacts on Yields Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
  15. 15. Results – Impacts on Production Costs Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
  16. 16. Profitability Results – by Crop / Region Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
  17. 17. Results – Impacts on Soil Erosion Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
  18. 18. Results – Impacts on Water Quality Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
  19. 19. Results – Impacts on Energy Consumption Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
  20. 20. Results – Impacts on Fertilizer Use Source: IFPRI e-survey 2011
  21. 21. DSSAT – Crop Modeling System
  22. 22. DSSAT – crop modeling systemMANAGEMENT ENVIRONMENTAL Improved variety 10 Planting in NovemberPRACTICES CONDITIONS 8 Crop choice  Climate Regional/Site-specific 6 Cropping – Historic (1901-2005) yield responses 4 – Future (2030s, Planting 2 2050s, 2080s) Yield (t/ha) 0 Inorganic fertilizer – CO2 concentration 100 80  Soil quality 60 Organic 40 40 20 20 0 Irrigation N Fertilizer Application N/A amendment  Land-use history (kg[N]/ha) Threshold (%) Irrigation Tillage OUTPUTS Residue  Biomass  Yield Harvest  Water balance and productivity  Nitrogen balance and productivity  Soil carbon sequestration
  23. 23. Management Scenarios Baseline • Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate • For maize, location-specific yield discount factor due to unmanaged pest damage where Bt maize is not adopted • Furrow irrigation, where irrigation is adopted • Sub-optimal planting density & sub-optimal planting window • Conventional tillage • Representative varieties for latitude x altitude zones Technology scenarios • Specific representation of each technology • Area of adoption in 2050 depends on technology Climate change scenario in 2050 • MIROC A1B (without CO2 fertilization)
  24. 24. Measure of Technology Yield Impact (%) in 2050For a given country, If technology is new (i.e. not adopted in 2000) 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2050 − 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2050 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑡 % = × 100 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2000 If technology already adopted in 2000 (=baseline) 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2050 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑡 % = × 100 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2000 – Bt maize: Brazil, USA, Argentina, China, India – No-till: Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil, Australia, Uruguay, New Zealand
  25. 25. Yield change (%), Global effect in 2050 (MIROC A1B) (-28.8) (-18.9) (-13.5)Numbers in brackets indicate water savings; assumption was that water demands can be fully met Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
  26. 26. Yield change (%), Global effect in 2050 (MIROC A1B) Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
  27. 27. IRRIGATEDMAIZEINTEGRATEDSOILFERTILITYMANAGEMENT Yield Impact (%) < -70 -69 - -60 -59 - -50 -49 - -40 -39 - -30 RAINFED -29 - -20 -19 - -15 -14 - -10 -9 - -5 -4 - 0 1-5 6 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 50 51 - 60 61 - 70 > 70
  28. 28. Yield change (%), Latin America & Caribbean in 2050 (MIROC A1B) Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
  29. 29. IRRIGATEDWHEATPRECISIONAGRICULTURE Yield Impact (%) < -70 -69 - -60 -59 - -50 -49 - -40 -39 - -30 RAINFED -29 - -20 -19 - -15 -14 - -10 -9 - -5 -4 - 0 1-5 6 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 50 51 - 60 61 - 70 > 70 Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
  30. 30. Linking DSSAT & IMPACTDSSAT IMPACT Technology strategy (combination of Food demand different practices) and supply Effects on Global prices Corresponding and trade geographically Food security differentiated yield and effects malnutrition
  31. 31. Percent Change in World Prices ofMaize between 2010 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
  32. 32. Percent Change in World Prices ofRice between 2000 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
  33. 33. Percent Change in World Prices ofWheat between 2010 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
  34. 34. Percent Change in kilocalorie availability per capitaper day between 2010 and 2050 Percent change from 2010 to 2050 12.0% 10.0% Reference (MIROC A1b) 8.0% Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Integrated SFM 6.0% No Till N Use Efficiency 4.0% Precision Ag 2.0% 0.0% Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
  35. 35. Percent Change in the Number of Malnourished Children 2050, compared to reference run Percent difference from reference in 20500.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5% Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance-2.0% Integrated SFM-2.5% No Till N Use Efficiency-3.0% Precision Ag-3.5%-4.0%-4.5%-5.0% Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
  36. 36. Conclusions Agricultural technology investments—including both “advanced” and “traditional” technologies/management practices are a game changer in terms of yield improvements and national and global food security We now can model disaggregated/locale-specific technology impacts While biophysical potential often exists to significantly increase yields, institutions, governance systems, political will, and poor rural infrastructure remain obstacles to achieving the full technological potential
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