Ensuring Global Food and Nutrition Security: The Role of Europe


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Special lecture on theme of "Europe’s Role in Food and Nutrition Security" by Shenggen Fan. The presentation was the keynote of a Teagasc and the Royal Dublin Society (RDS) lecture series on "Grand Challenges of Global Agriculture and Food" delivered on April 11, 2013 in Dublin, Ireland.

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Ensuring Global Food and Nutrition Security: The Role of Europe

  1. 1. Click to edit Master title style Ensuring Global Food and Nutrition Security: The Role of Europe Shenggen Fan Director General | International Food Policy Research Institute Teagasc and Royal Dublin Society Lecture Dublin | April 11, 2013Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  2. 2. Key messagesClick to edit Master title style §  Global hunger and malnutrition persist §  Current / future challenges threaten global food and nutrition security §  An integrated approach is needed to sustainably improve food and nutrition security §  Europe has a key role to play Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  3. 3. 50+ countries have serious / alarming /Click to edit Master title styleextremely alarming levels of hunger 2012 Global Hunger Index (Deutsche Welthungerhilfe, IFPRI, and Concern Worldwide) GHI components: • Proportion of undernourished • Prevalence of underweight in children • Under-five mortality rate Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012
  4. 4. 2 bil. +to edit Masterfrom style hungerClick people suffer title hidden Prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Source: HarvestPlus 2011
  5. 5. The costedit Master title stylehighClick to of undernutrition is GDP losses due to micronutrient and vitamin deficiency Source: Maple Croft 2011 E.g. Economic cost of micronutrient deficiencies in India = US$17.3 bil. (2004 dollars) or 2.5% of GDP Shenggen Fan, April 2013 (Stein and Qaim 2007)
  6. 6. Current /edit Master title styleClick to future challenges threatenfood and nutrition security §  Increasing population and urbanization §  Rising incomes and demand; diet changes §  Growing natural resource constraints §  Rising oil prices and biofuel expansion; Increasing volatility of food prices §  Climate change; higher frequency and intensity of extreme weather eventsShenggen Fan, April 2013
  7. 7. Globalto edit Master titlelarger andClick population will be stylemore urban World population (billions)10 9.3 billion Urban 8 Rural 6 Urban population to grow 75% 4 (2010-2050) 2 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Source: Data from UN 2011 Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  8. 8. Globalto edit Master titlemuch older,Click population will be styleBUT Africa will be younger Number of population by age group Share of population aged 15-24 and 60+ (billions) (%)4.0 40 0-14 15-24 15-29 60+3.0 Ageing 30 30-59 Youthful 60+2.0 201.0 100.0 0 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Source: UN 2011 Source: UN 2011Social protection and social security for poor & vulnerable groups AND jobs for the youth are needed Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  9. 9. Rising incomes will lead to style Click to edit Master titlehigher food demand and diet changes GDP per capita (2005 $US in ‘000s) Change in consumption of agric. products, 2009-11 to 2021 (%)14 50 World OECD12 Developing Countries Developing countries 4010 30 8 6 20 4 10 2 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: Data from ERS-USDA 2012 Source: Data from OECD-FAO 2012 Global food demand expected to rise 60% by 2050 (FAO 2012) Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  10. 10. Water to edit Master title styleClick scarcity is a growing problem Areas of physical and economic water scarcity Source: FAO 2013 Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  11. 11. Arable land scarcity is also a growingClick to edit Master title styleproblem§  Global farmland is Annual loss of per capita arable land in developing countries, 1961–2009 degrading rapidly •  24% of global land area is affected§  Arable land per capita is decreasing •  65% (1970-2000) •  Expected to further by 50% by 2050 Source: Nkonya et al. 2011 Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  12. 12. Rising oil prices continue style Click to edit Master title to drive biofuel expansion Oil and food prices, 2006-12 Biofuel production, 1996-2021 (2005 = 100) (Billion litres) 300 100 Food EU-27 250 Oil 80 USA 200 Brazil 60 150 40 100 20 50 0 0 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Source: Data from IMF 2012 Source: Data from OECD-FAO Outlook 2012§  Oil prices are highly correlated to food §  Global biofuel production projected to prices almost double from 2009-11 to 2021§  Rising oil prices make biofuels more §  Cereal use for biofuels to rise by 7% profitable (Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008) annually—compared to 1.5% for food and feed (OECD/FAO 2012) Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  13. 13. Food prices are hightitle style volatile Click to edit Master and more FAO food price index Global cereal prices (US$/ton)300 800 Maize Meat Price Index Wheat250 Dairy Price Index 600 Rice Cereals Price Index200 400150 200100 50 0 Source: Data from FAO 2012 Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Note: For Food Price Index 2002-2004=100
  14. 14. Climate change is a serious challengeClick to edit Master title styleA 4o warmer world must be prevented Business  as  usual   = 4o    Warmer  by  2100   There  would  be  LARGER   impacts  on  agriculture   and  ecosystems   SEA  LEVEL  RISE  is  likely  to  be   DROUGHT  AND  ARIDITY   15-­‐20%  higher  in  the  tropics   would  likely  increase  in   than  global  mean   tropical  developing  countries   Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Source: Adapted from World Bank 2012
  15. 15. Click to edit Master title style An integrated approach is needed to sustainably improve food and nutrition security AND Europe has a key role to playShenggen Fan, April 2013
  16. 16. Towards an integrated approach to enhanceClick food and nutrition securityglobal to edit Master title style1.  Accelerate investments in agriculture to enhance smallholder productivity, nutrition, and resource-use efficiency2.  Scale-up productive social safety nets to protect poor and vulnerable groups3.  Invest in climate-smart technologies and policies4.  Improve global coordination to reduce food price volatility5.  Support country-led processes for food and nutrition security Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  17. 17. 1a. Accelerate investments in agriculture,Click to edit Master title styleesp. for smallholder productivity§  Invest in agricultural R&D and rural infrastructure§  Improve access to inputs e.g. seeds and fertilizer§  Increase access to high-value supply chains and markets e.g. fruits, vegetables, and milk§  Promote smallholder-friendly innovations •  Financial and information services e.g. community banking, ICTs •  Risk management mechanisms e.g. weather-based index insurance •  Institutional arrangements e.g. producer cooperatives Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  18. 18. 1b. Leverage agriculture for enhancedClick to edit Master title stylenutrition and health Biofortification - Reduces micronutrient deficiencies by improving nutrient content of food crops HarvestPlus (IFPRI) Prioritization of public R&D investment to increase innovation AND adoption by small farmers is needed Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  19. 19. 1c. Promote resource-efficient Click to edit Master title styletechnologies and practices Integrated soil fertility management §  Sustainable fertilizer use •  Fertilizers + manure/compost → increase soil nutrient availability, boost production, and reduce energy use •  Nanofertilizers (slow-release) Water conservation §  Low-cost (solar panel) drip irrigation §  Recycling •  Reed-bed recycling of wastewater •  Water storage reservoirs to capture rainfall → serve also as hydropower facilities Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  20. 20. 1d. Address food losses stylewasteClick to edit Master title and Addressing food losses and waste is key to resource-use efficiency §  Developing countries Losses mainly at early & middle stages of food supply chain Improve harvest techniques, farmer education, storage facilities, & cooling chains §  Developed countries Waste mainly at the retail & consumer level Increase consumer awareness and promote behavior change Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Source: Adapted from FAO 2011
  21. 21. Click to edit Master title style2. Scale-up productive social safety netsBetter-targeted and more productive social protectionpolicies are needed to •  secure basic livelihoods •  protect poor people from risk and vulnerability§  Explore new approaches, e.g. cross-sectoral social protection, to reach poor more effectively Ethiopia Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) •  Part of broad food security program •  Access to both safety nets and ag. support more beneficial than stand alone programs (Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009) Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  22. 22. 3. Invest in climate-smart technologiesClick to edit Master title styleand policies§  Promote innovative GHG emission reduction measurement tools to •  Measure, track, and map e.g. ArcGIS for carbon sequestration maps§  Exploit GHG reduction potential of agriculture •  Adaptation/mitigation/productivity “triple wins”§  Promote low carbon policy and market incentives •  E.g. Brazil’s Low Carbon Agriculture Program •  Integrate smallholders into carbon trading markets§  Plan for and prioritize low carbon agriculture options •  Involve all stakeholders in planning, priority-setting, and decision- making processes Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  23. 23. Click to edit Master title style reduce4. Improve global coordination tofood price volatility §  Create global and regional grain reserves •  Located in poor food importing countries e.g. Horn of Africa §  Support transparent and free global trade •  Eliminate harmful trade restrictions and prevent new ones §  Minimize food-fuel competition •  Halt grain-based biofuel production §  Monitor global food prices and speculation •  G-20’s information system (AMIS) / IFPRI’s Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning SystemShenggen Fan, April 2013
  24. 24. Click to edit Master title style5. Support country-led processes§  Policies should come from developing countries to maximize local impact of global agenda§  Improve evidence on what policies have and have not worked •  Small-scale, local experimentation followed by gradual implementation, e.g. China and Vietnam •  Impartial monitoring of experiments Country-owned policies should be continually tried, evaluated, adjusted, and tried again before being scaled upShenggen Fan, April 2013
  25. 25. Europe has aMaster title styleClick to edit key role to play§  Increase development assistance to agriculture§  Expand investment in agricultural R&D and support technology transfer§  Reform domestic agricultural policies and promote open trade§  Promote South-South and North-South learning§  Build national capacities Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  26. 26. Increase assistance totitle style Click to edit Master agriculture (10% of total ODA by 2015) ODA from EU institutions, Amount and share of agriculture ODA from net disbursements DAC EU members Agriculture ODA Share of Agriculture in Total ODA (right) 20 19 19 2.5 5 18 4.5 17 4.3 4.0 15 2.0 4 15 3.6 3.1 12 US$ billionsUS$ billions Percent 10 1.5 3 2.7 10 9 2.3 1.0 2 5 0.5 1 0 0.0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Data from OECD 2011 Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Note: Agriculture refers to Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing
  27. 27. Irelandto edit Master title style Click is a global leader in advancingfood and nutrition security Irish Aid: Bilateral ODA by sector, 2011 3% 1% 2% 8% 16% 5% 10% 20% 6% 9% 17% 2% Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  28. 28. Expand investment in agricultural R&DClick to edit Master title styleand support technology transferInvest in technologies for§  Crop and livestock breeding§  Water and energy saving§  Low carbon agriculture§  Food safety +§  2nd generation biofuels (non-food feedstock) Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  29. 29. AsiaClick to edit Master title styleTechnology transfer for food security§  Part of EU Food Security Thematic Programme§  Transfer of appropriate and effective technology to Asia’s poorest small farmers§  2 pronged approach •  Raise agricultural productivity in sustainable manner and promote effective market linkages •  Encourage South-South dialogue and intra-regional learning Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  30. 30. Reform domestic agricultural policies andClick to edit Master title stylepromote open trade§  Revisit farm policies and cut subsidies§  Promote non-distorting trade policies and engage in WTO trade negotiations§  Reduce or eliminate grain-based biofuels Composition of EU agricultural budget,Open trade has mutual benefits, annual expenditures, 1990-2010completion of Doha Round =§  Annual trade gains •  $29bn - Developed countries •  $9bn - Developing countries§  Global income gains •  $70bn Source: Fan 2011 Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  31. 31. Promote South-South and North-South Click to edit Master title stylelearning§  Exploit large knowledge base •  E.g. Knowledge-sharing processes between EU and developing countries§  Engage in broader partnerships •  E.g. Multi-disciplinary and multi-stakeholder research partnerships§  Promote successful partnerships •  E.g. National as well as global research institutions, esp. CGIAR§  Develop innovative partnerships •  E.g. Agriculture Pull Mechanism Initiative (AGPM)§  Facilitate South-South knowledge exchange •  E.g. Programme for South-South Cooperation - Benin, Bhutan, and Costa Rica Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  32. 32. Build national capacities style Click to edit Master titleSupport for CAADP §  Promote access to and use of state-of-the art modeling tools§  Provide analysis, data, and tools§  Improve awareness of agriculture’s role §  Facilitate access to data, improve data quality, bridge data gaps§  Fill knowledge gaps; promote dialogue §  Support collaboration among§  Facilitate benchmarking and review scientists and build dynamic processes research communityAgricultural education and training§  Improve education and research capabilities§  Provide integrated training (Masters, PhD, international academic exchange etc.) Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  33. 33. Towards edit Master title style Click to a post-2015 agenda §  Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) Movement §  Rio+20 “The Future We Want” §  UN Secretary General’s Zero Hunger Challenge §  Consultations on Hunger, Food Security and Nutrition in Post-2015 Development Agenda §  Etc. Vision: End hunger sustainably by 2025 Shenggen Fan, April 2013
  34. 34. Click to edit Master title styleIt is time to Walk the Talk! Shenggen Fan, April 2013
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