2nd Annual Malthus Lecture "Feeding the World Sustainably" by Ismail Serageldin

Feeding the World Sustainably: Reflections, Issues, and Suggestions
Ismail Serageldin
2nd Malthus Lecture
IFPRI – Washington, DC
14 July 2011

Outline
Challenging Malthus
On Hunger
On Hunger And Poverty
Food Security
The Gender Dimension
The Environmental Dimension
The Role Of science
The Power Of Policy
Transforming Global Agriculture
Envoi

Challenging Malthus

Challenging Malthus
Malthus was wrong
He could never have imagined a world with 6.7 billion people
Human ingenuity was able to provide more food out of the same resources
Hunger and famine persist for other reasons

In USA Today: 20 % Of Children and 65% Of Adults Are Obese

The Abolitionists
William Wilberforce
d. 1833

Abolishing Slavery
Abraham Lincoln Frederick Douglas

We Must Abolish Hunger!

We must becomeThe New Abolitionists!

So far, we could abolish hunger…But… Things can change…

World Population, in Billions 1950-2050
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

Malthus Strikes Back!
Malthus was wrong up to now
What about a world of 10 Billion, with richer diets and increasing animal proteins?
What about our energy policies and climate change?

On Hunger

We take abundant food for granted

BUTAbout One Billion persons are chronically malnourished!

http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/es/Hunger_Portal/Hunger_Map_2010b.pdf

Sub-Saharan Africa Remains most vulnerable region

After prolonged drought, Again, Today, Famine Stalks Millions in East Africa(Source: The Economist July 9, 2011, p.35

Humanitarian Food Aid will continue to be needed in hotspots and must be provided for

Trends in world hunger, 2010

Global Hunger Index, 2010
Three equally weighted indicators constitute the GHI:
Undernourishedas % of the population (reflecting the share of the population with insufficient dietary energy intake)
Underweight as % of Children < 5 years old (indicating the proportion of children suffering from low weight for their age)
Mortality rate of Children < 5 years old(partially reflecting the fatal synergy between inadequate dietary intake and unhealthy environments)

> 5.0 Low hunger
5.0 - 9.9 Moderate hunger
10.0 - 19.9 Serious
20.0 - 29.9 Alarming
≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming
The index ranks countries on a 100-point scale, with 0 being the best score (no hunger) and 100 being the worst, although neither of these extremes is reached in practice.

GNP per Capita and Global Hunger Index, 2010
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
45

Comoros


Madagascar
Central African Rep.
Congo, Dem. Rep.
40


Niger

Burundi

Zambia
Eritrea
35
Eritrea



Mozambique
Ethiopia

Rwanda
Guinea-Bissau




Chad
30

Togo

Sierra Leone




Burkina Faso

Angola

Tanzania
25



2010 GHI
Kenya


Djibouti


Mali



20

Malawi


Gambia

Nigeria


Cameroon






Guinea


Congo, Rep.
Benin

15

Senegal


Namibia


Botswana


Mauritania
Lesotho
Uganda

South Africa
Swaziland

10

Cote d’Ivoire
Ghana
Mauritius



Gabon
5
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
GNP per Capita, 2005-07

GNP per Capita and Global Hunger Index, 2010
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
45
40
35
30

Yemen
25
2010 GHI
20
15
10
Morocco
Iran, Islamic Republic

5

Egypt
Syrian Arab. Rep.


Libya

Algeria


Saudi Arabia




Jordan
Tunisia
Lebanon
Turkey
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
GNP per Capita, 2005-07

Kevin Carter’s Pulitzer Prize winning photo 1994

Kevin Carter(1960 - 1994)

On Hunger And Poverty

The Primary Cause Of Hunger Is Extreme Poverty

AmartyaSenon Famines

Norman Borlaug
(1914 – 2009)

Food whether you buy it or grow it yourself

Observation: Many rural poor continue to pay for their food needs
Sellers
Self-Sufficient
Buyers
Source: cited in http://www.ifad.org/rural/rpr2010/background/9.pdf

So we have to reduce the price f food, by increasing production sustainably, reducing waste, and ensuring access

What about the poor small-holder farmers who are major producers of food? They will become even poorer…

Raise productivity for small-holder farmers faster than the prices drop
Rice
production
Rice
price
Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003
Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update)
Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets
Trends in world rice production and price adjusted for inflation, 1961-2002

Raiseproductivity of small-holderfarmersfasterthan the price of food drops
Rice
production
Rice
price
World rice production and pricesadjusted for inflation, 1961-2002

Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times, access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality, produced in a sustainable manner.

An Enormous Gap Exists Between the Rich and the Poor…

Rich and Poor in Sao Paulosource: http://mindblog.dericbownds.net/2007/10/rich-and-poor.html

It is not just the absence of income that defines poverty

It is marginalization, deprivation and social exclusion

Loss of dignity

Social Exclusion

Rural and Urban Poverty in Developing
Countries
Rural poor
70.0%
Urban poor
30.0%
Source: IFPRI estimate from World Bank data.

The Ultra Poor require special help

Much Economic Analysis Erases the Human Factor

Thoughtful use of multiple indicators for analysis will lead to richer and more nuanced policy and program design

MPAT:Multidimensional Poverty Assessment Tool (Developed by IFAD)

MPAT
1 Food & Nutrition 1.1Security Consumption
1.2 Access stability
1.3 Nutrition quality
10 Gender & Social Equality 10.1 Access to education
10.2 Access to healthcare
10.3 Social equality
2. Domestic Water Supply 2.1 Quality
2.2 Availability
2.3 Access
9 Exposure & Resilience to Shocks
9.1 Exposure
9.2 Coping ability
9.3 Recovery ability
3. Health & Healthcare
3.1 Health status
3.2 Access & affordability
3.3 Healthcare quality
MPAT
8 Non-Farm Assets
8.1 Employment & skills
8.2 Financial services
8.3 Fixed assets & remittances
4. Sanitation & Hygiene
4.1Toilet facility
4.2Waste management
4.3 Hygiene practices
7 Farm Assets
7.1 Land tenure
7.2 Land quality
7.3 Crop inputs
7.4 Livestock/aquaculture
5 Housing, Clothing & Energy
5.1 Housing structure quality
5.2 Clothing
5.3 Energy sources
6 Education
6.1 Quality
6.2 Availability
6.3 Access
Organizational diagram of MPAT's components and subcomponents

Urban poverty

Reaching the Poorest
Garbage pickers in the Philippines

Urban Poverty

Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger
Reduce the price of food
Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor
Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have

The Urban Poor mostly buy their food

And food is a major part of their budget – Hence their wellbeing is very sensitive to the price of food

The poor lack the skills for the high Tech jobs the market offers, and are unlikely to get these skills quickly

Urban Agriculture on roofs and between buildings on vacant land

On Hunger And Rural Poverty

Reform Policies And Markets
Remove urban bias
Roads
Education
Health
Etc.
Improve access to markets
Reduce post harvest losses

Challenges Facing Small Farms
Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
Low world market prices for agriculture.
Climate change.
HIV/AIDS
Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller.
No political voice.

Food Security

Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times, access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality, produced in a sustainable manner.

Food Security
Not Just production, also access
Not Just output, also process
Not Just technology, also policy
Not Just global, also national
Not Just national, also household
Not Just rural, also urban
Not Just amount, also content

Understanding Food Security

Global Food ProductionMust Grow by+40% by 2030&+70% by 2050
Opening statement by IFAD President at the Jeddah Economic Forum 2010: “The Global Economy in 2020” http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2010/jeddah.htm

Food Security and Production
Production is a necessary but not sufficient condition for food security
Focusing on the small-holder farmer in developing countries is key to environmental protection, poverty reduction and food security

“We are all on this earth as guests of the green plants and those who tend them.”-- M.S. Swaminathan

The response is to produce differently, not less

Seven Statements About Food Security

Food Security: Seven Statements
Increase production and productivity
Better management
Reduce losses, reduce waste
Manage vulnerability (CC)
BioFortification
BioFuels
International Trade

How to reduce prices without harming the poor farmers who produce food?

Rice
production
Rice
price