2nd Annual Malthus Lecture "Feeding the World Sustainably" by Ismail Serageldin

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2nd Annual Malthus Lecture "Feeding the World Sustainably: Reflections, Issues, and Suggestions" given by Dr. Ismail Serageldin at IFPRI on 14 July 2011. Co-hosted by IFPRI and PRB (Population …

2nd Annual Malthus Lecture "Feeding the World Sustainably: Reflections, Issues, and Suggestions" given by Dr. Ismail Serageldin at IFPRI on 14 July 2011. Co-hosted by IFPRI and PRB (Population Reference Bureau). Sponsored by Montague Yudelman.

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  • 1. Feeding the World Sustainably: Reflections, Issues, and Suggestions
    Ismail Serageldin
    2nd Malthus Lecture
    IFPRI – Washington, DC
    14 July 2011
  • 2. Outline
    Challenging Malthus
    On Hunger
    On Hunger And Poverty
    Food Security
    The Gender Dimension
    The Environmental Dimension
    The Role Of science
    The Power Of Policy
    Transforming Global Agriculture
    Envoi
  • 3. Challenging Malthus
  • 4. Challenging Malthus
    Malthus was wrong
    He could never have imagined a world with 6.7 billion people
    Human ingenuity was able to provide more food out of the same resources
    Hunger and famine persist for other reasons
  • 5.
  • 6. In USA Today: 20 % Of Children and 65% Of Adults Are Obese
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. The Abolitionists
    William Wilberforce
    d. 1833
  • 10. Abolishing Slavery
    Abraham Lincoln Frederick Douglas
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. We Must Abolish Hunger!
  • 15. We must becomeThe New Abolitionists!
  • 16. So far, we could abolish hunger…But… Things can change…
  • 17. World Population, in Billions 1950-2050
    Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.
  • 18. Malthus Strikes Back!
    Malthus was wrong up to now
    What about a world of 10 Billion, with richer diets and increasing animal proteins?
    What about our energy policies and climate change?
  • 19. On Hunger
  • 20. We take abundant food for granted
  • 21. BUTAbout One Billion persons are chronically malnourished!
  • 22. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/es/Hunger_Portal/Hunger_Map_2010b.pdf
  • 23. Sub-Saharan Africa Remains most vulnerable region
  • 24. After prolonged drought, Again, Today, Famine Stalks Millions in East Africa(Source: The Economist July 9, 2011, p.35
  • 25. Humanitarian Food Aid will continue to be needed in hotspots and must be provided for
  • 26. Trends in world hunger, 2010
  • 27. Global Hunger Index, 2010
    Three equally weighted indicators constitute the GHI:
    Undernourishedas % of the population (reflecting the share of the population with insufficient dietary energy intake)
    Underweight as % of Children < 5 years old (indicating the proportion of children suffering from low weight for their age)
    Mortality rate of Children < 5 years old(partially reflecting the fatal synergy between inadequate dietary intake and unhealthy environments)
  • 28. Global Hunger Index, 2010
    > 5.0 Low hunger
    5.0 - 9.9 Moderate hunger
    10.0 - 19.9 Serious
    20.0 - 29.9 Alarming
    ≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming
    The index ranks countries on a 100-point scale, with 0 being the best score (no hunger) and 100 being the worst, although neither of these extremes is reached in practice.
  • 29. GNP per Capita and Global Hunger Index, 2010
    SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
    45

    Comoros


    Madagascar
    Central African Rep.
    Congo, Dem. Rep.
    40


    Niger

    Burundi

    Zambia
    Eritrea
    35
    Eritrea



    Mozambique
    Ethiopia

    Rwanda
    Guinea-Bissau




    Chad
    30

    Togo

    Sierra Leone




    Burkina Faso

    Angola

    Tanzania
    25



    2010 GHI
    Kenya


    Djibouti


    Mali



    20

    Malawi


    Gambia

    Nigeria


    Cameroon






    Guinea


    Congo, Rep.
    Benin

    15

    Senegal


    Namibia


    Botswana


    Mauritania
    Lesotho
    Uganda

    South Africa
    Swaziland

    10

    Cote d’Ivoire
    Ghana
    Mauritius



    Gabon
    5
    2,000
    4,000
    6,000
    8,000
    10,000
    12,000
    14,000
    16,000
    18,000
    20,000
    GNP per Capita, 2005-07
  • 30. GNP per Capita and Global Hunger Index, 2010
    MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
    45
    40
    35
    30

    Yemen
    25
    2010 GHI
    20
    15
    10
    Morocco
    Iran, Islamic Republic

    5

    Egypt
    Syrian Arab. Rep.


    Libya

    Algeria


    Saudi Arabia




    Jordan
    Tunisia
    Lebanon
    Turkey
    2,000
    4,000
    6,000
    8,000
    10,000
    12,000
    14,000
    16,000
    18,000
    20,000
    GNP per Capita, 2005-07
  • 31. Global Hunger Index, 2010
  • 32.
  • 33. 33
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37. Kevin Carter’s Pulitzer Prize winning photo 1994
  • 38. Kevin Carter(1960 - 1994)
  • 39. On Hunger And Poverty
  • 40. The Primary Cause Of Hunger Is Extreme Poverty
  • 41. AmartyaSenon Famines
  • 42. Norman Borlaug
    (1914 – 2009)
  • 43. Food whether you buy it or grow it yourself
  • 44. Observation: Many rural poor continue to pay for their food needs
    Sellers
    Self-Sufficient
    Buyers
    Source: cited in http://www.ifad.org/rural/rpr2010/background/9.pdf
  • 45. So we have to reduce the price f food, by increasing production sustainably, reducing waste, and ensuring access
  • 46. What about the poor small-holder farmers who are major producers of food? They will become even poorer…
  • 47. Raise productivity for small-holder farmers faster than the prices drop
    Rice
    production
    Rice
    price
    Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003
    Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update)
    Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets
    Trends in world rice production and price adjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
  • 48. Raiseproductivity of small-holderfarmersfasterthan the price of food drops
    Rice
    production
    Rice
    price
    Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003
    Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update)
    Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets
    World rice production and pricesadjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
  • 49. Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times, access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality, produced in a sustainable manner.
  • 50. An Enormous Gap Exists Between the Rich and the Poor…
  • 51. 51
  • 52.
  • 53. Rich and Poor in Sao Paulosource: http://mindblog.dericbownds.net/2007/10/rich-and-poor.html
  • 54. It is not just the absence of income that defines poverty
  • 55. It is marginalization, deprivation and social exclusion
  • 56. Loss of dignity
  • 57. Social Exclusion
  • 58. Rural and Urban Poverty in Developing
    Countries
    Rural poor
    70.0%
    Urban poor
    30.0%
    Source: IFPRI estimate from World Bank data.
  • 59. The Ultra Poor require special help
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62. Much Economic Analysis Erases the Human Factor
  • 63.
  • 64. Thoughtful use of multiple indicators for analysis will lead to richer and more nuanced policy and program design
  • 65. MPAT:Multidimensional Poverty Assessment Tool (Developed by IFAD)
  • 66. MPAT
    1 Food & Nutrition 1.1Security Consumption
    1.2 Access stability
    1.3 Nutrition quality
    10 Gender & Social Equality 10.1 Access to education
    10.2 Access to healthcare
    10.3 Social equality
    2. Domestic Water Supply 2.1 Quality
    2.2 Availability
    2.3 Access
    9 Exposure & Resilience to Shocks
    9.1 Exposure
    9.2 Coping ability
    9.3 Recovery ability
    3. Health & Healthcare
    3.1 Health status
    3.2 Access & affordability
    3.3 Healthcare quality
    MPAT
    8 Non-Farm Assets
    8.1 Employment & skills
    8.2 Financial services
    8.3 Fixed assets & remittances
    4. Sanitation & Hygiene
    4.1Toilet facility
    4.2Waste management
    4.3 Hygiene practices
    7 Farm Assets
    7.1 Land tenure
    7.2 Land quality
    7.3 Crop inputs
    7.4 Livestock/aquaculture
    5 Housing, Clothing & Energy
    5.1 Housing structure quality
    5.2 Clothing
    5.3 Energy sources
    6 Education
    6.1 Quality
    6.2 Availability
    6.3 Access
    Organizational diagram of MPAT's components and subcomponents
  • 67. Urban poverty
  • 68.
  • 69.
  • 70.
  • 71.
  • 72. Reaching the Poorest
    Garbage pickers in the Philippines
  • 73. Urban Poverty
  • 74. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger
    Reduce the price of food
    Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor
    Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
  • 75. The Urban Poor mostly buy their food
  • 76. And food is a major part of their budget – Hence their wellbeing is very sensitive to the price of food
  • 77. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger
    Reduce the price of food
    Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor
    Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
  • 78. The poor lack the skills for the high Tech jobs the market offers, and are unlikely to get these skills quickly
  • 79.
  • 80. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger
    Reduce the price of food
    Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor
    Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
  • 81.
  • 82. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger
    Reduce the price of food
    Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor
    Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have
  • 83. Urban Agriculture on roofs and between buildings on vacant land
  • 84. On Hunger And Rural Poverty
  • 85.
  • 86.
  • 87. Reform Policies And Markets
    Remove urban bias
    Roads
    Education
    Health
    Etc.
    Improve access to markets
    Reduce post harvest losses
  • 88.
  • 89. Challenges Facing Small Farms
    Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
    Low world market prices for agriculture.
    Climate change.
    HIV/AIDS
    Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller.
    No political voice.
  • 90. Challenges Facing Small Farms
    Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
    Low world market prices for agriculture.
    Climate change.
    HIV/AIDS
    Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller.
    No political voice.
  • 91. Challenges Facing Small Farms
    Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
    Low world market prices for agriculture.
    Climate change.
    HIV/AIDS
    Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller.
    No political voice.
  • 92. Challenges Facing Small Farms
    Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
    Low world market prices for agriculture.
    Climate change.
    HIV/AIDS
    Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller.
    No political voice.
  • 93.
  • 94. Challenges Facing Small Farms
    Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
    Low world market prices for agriculture.
    Climate change.
    HIV/AIDS
    Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller.
    No political voice.
  • 95. Challenges Facing Small Farms
    Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
    Low world market prices for agriculture.
    Climate change.
    HIV/AIDS
    Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller.
    No political voice.
  • 96. Challenges Facing Small Farms
    Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.
    Low world market prices for agriculture.
    Climate change.
    HIV/AIDS
    Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller.
    No political voice.
  • 97. Food Security
  • 98. Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times, access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality, produced in a sustainable manner.
  • 99. Food Security
    Not Just production, also access
    Not Just output, also process
    Not Just technology, also policy
    Not Just global, also national
    Not Just national, also household
    Not Just rural, also urban
    Not Just amount, also content
  • 100. Food Security
    Not Just production, also access
    Not Just output, also process
    Not Just technology, also policy
    Not Just global, also national
    Not Just national, also household
    Not Just rural, also urban
    Not Just amount, also content
  • 101. Food Security
    Not Just production, also access
    Not Just output, also process
    Not Just technology, also policy
    Not Just global, also national
    Not Just national, also household
    Not Just rural, also urban
    Not Just amount, also content
  • 102. Food Security
    Not Just production, also access
    Not Just output, also process
    Not Just technology, also policy
    Not Just global, also national
    Not Just national, also household
    Not Just rural, also urban
    Not Just amount, also content
  • 103. Food Security
    Not Just production, also access
    Not Just output, also process
    Not Just technology, also policy
    Not Just global, also national
    Not Just national, also household
    Not Just rural, also urban
    Not Just amount, also content
  • 104. Food Security
    Not Just production, also access
    Not Just output, also process
    Not Just technology, also policy
    Not Just global, also national
    Not Just national, also household
    Not Just rural, also urban
    Not Just amount, also content
  • 105. Food Security
    Not Just production, also access
    Not Just output, also process
    Not Just technology, also policy
    Not Just global, also national
    Not Just national, also household
    Not Just rural, also urban
    Not Just amount, also content
  • 106. Food Security
    Not Just production, also access
    Not Just output, also process
    Not Just technology, also policy
    Not Just global, also national
    Not Just national, also household
    Not Just rural, also urban
    Not Just amount, also content
  • 107. Understanding Food Security
  • 108. Understanding Food Security
  • 109. Global Food ProductionMust Grow by+40% by 2030&+70% by 2050
    Opening statement by IFAD President at the Jeddah Economic Forum 2010: “The Global Economy in 2020” http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2010/jeddah.htm
  • 110. Food Security and Production
    Production is a necessary but not sufficient condition for food security
    Focusing on the small-holder farmer in developing countries is key to environmental protection, poverty reduction and food security
  • 111. “We are all on this earth as guests of the green plants and those who tend them.”-- M.S. Swaminathan
  • 112.
  • 113.
  • 114.
  • 115. The response is to produce differently, not less
  • 116.
  • 117.
  • 118. Seven Statements About Food Security
  • 119. Food Security: Seven Statements
    Increase production and productivity
    Better management
    Reduce losses, reduce waste
    Manage vulnerability (CC)
    BioFortification
    BioFuels
    International Trade
  • 120. Food Security: Seven Statements
    Increase production and productivity
    Better management
    Reduce losses, reduce waste
    Manage vulnerability (CC)
    BioFortification
    BioFuels
    International Trade
  • 121. How to reduce prices without harming the poor farmers who produce food?
  • 122. Raiseproductivity of small-holderfarmersfasterthan the price of food drops
    Rice
    production
    Rice
    price
    Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003
    Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update)
    Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets
    World rice production and pricesadjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
  • 123. Food Security: Seven Statements
    Increase production and productivity
    Better management
    Reduce losses, reduce waste
    Manage vulnerability (CC)
    BioFortification
    BioFuels
    International Trade
  • 124. SRI has increased output dramatically, with the same inputs
  • 125. Food Security: Seven Statements
    Increase production and productivity
    Better management
    Reduce losses, reduce waste
    Manage vulnerability (CC)
    BioFortification
    BioFuels
    International Trade
  • 126. In the poor countries, post-harvest losses reach up to 30% of the crops
  • 127. Reduce
    Post-Harvest Losses
  • 128. Storage and post-harvest losses
  • 129. In the rich countries: Up to 30% of cooked food is thrown out
  • 130. Up to 20% of purchased food is thrown out unused, in its wrapper
  • 131.
  • 132.
  • 133. X
  • 134. Food Security: Seven Statements
    Increase production and productivity
    Better management
    Reduce losses, reduce waste
    Manage vulnerability (CC)
    BioFortification
    BioFuels
    International Trade
  • 135. Homeless, nameless…
  • 136.
  • 137. Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Most farmers live precariously
    Downside is devastating
    Climate change is increasing vulnerability
  • 138.
  • 139. Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990
    Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings
  • 140. Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990
    Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings
  • 141. Extension Must bring Research To These Farmers
  • 142. Food Security: Seven Statements
    Increase production and productivity
    Better management
    Reduce losses, reduce waste
    Manage vulnerability (CC)
    BioFortification
    BioFuels
    International Trade
  • 143. Better Nutrition
  • 144. White and Golden Rice
  • 145. Food Security: Seven Statements
    Increase production and productivity
    Better management
    Reduce losses, reduce waste
    Manage vulnerability (CC)
    BioFortification
    BioFuels
    International Trade
  • 146. In addition to the first generation of biofuels (Ethanol from Corn)
  • 147. Ethanol from Corn contributes to 2008 food price spike
  • 148. It is wrong to burn the food of the poor to drive the cars of the rich!
  • 149. We must move to second generation biofuels
  • 150. Food Security: Seven Statements
    Increase production and productivity
    Better management
    Reduce losses, reduce waste
    Manage vulnerability (CC)
    BioFortification
    BioFuels
    International Trade
  • 151.
  • 152.
  • 153. US Ag Subsidies 1994-2005
  • 154. Cows Vs. People
    A typical cow in the European Union receives a government subsidy of $2.20 a day –
    more than what 2.5 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day.
    Twice what 1.2 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day.
  • 155. $2.20 / day $0.90 / day
  • 156.
  • 157. Food Security: Seven Statements
    Increase production and productivity
    Better management
    Reduce losses, reduce waste
    Manage vulnerability (CC)
    BioFortification
    BioFuels
    International Trade
  • 158. The Gender Dimension
  • 159. And We Must Never Forget the Gender Dimension…
  • 160. Women In Africa
    Produce 80% of the food
    Receive 10% of the wages
    Own 1% of the land
  • 161. Women Empowerment
    Essential to recognize the gender dimension of agriculture
    Empowering Women results in major improvements in infant mortality, school enrolments, child morbidity
  • 162. Women Empowerment
    Women have unequal opportunity in:
    Education
    Health care
    Income
    Credit
    Employment
    Assets
    Decision-making
  • 163.
  • 164. The key vector to fight infant mortality and child malnutrition is Maternal Health
  • 165. From the sixth month of pregnancy…
  • 166. …To the 18th month of life…
  • 167. The period when children are most vulnerable to hunger
  • 168. Malnurished mothers give birth to low birth weight babiesandMalnourished children often suffer from growth retardation and weight loss
  • 169. Breast Milk has the Best Nutritional Value
  • 170. A Healthy Mother…
    Gives birth to a baby of normal weight.
    Breast feed her baby well.
    Will be able to find good food to wean her baby.
  • 171. The Environmental Dimension
  • 172. Climate Change
    The Most serious Issue Facing Humanity
  • 173.
  • 174. Hurricane Bonnie
  • 175. Source: National Geographic, August, 2005
  • 176. Source: National Geographic, August, 2005
  • 177. Can this be just a “natural phenomenon”?
    NO!
  • 178. GHG emissions are a key contributor
  • 179.
  • 180. Should we be concerned?
    YES!
  • 181.
  • 182. Source: The Economist – The World in 2007
  • 183. How serious is the problem?
    VERY!
  • 184.
  • 185. The Nile:Reaches Cairo with 12 million Tons of saltsReaches the sea with 34 million tons of salts
  • 186. Impact on Nile Delta
  • 187.
  • 188. But Also increased Floods, Droughts, Forest Fires and Desertification
  • 189. Climate Change and Food Security:Changes in Length of growing period 2000-2005
    Thronton, et.al., cited in Greg Mock and Paul Steele, “Power to the poor: tapping the wealth of ecosystems”, in Environment, vol 48: 1; Jan/Feb 2006, p. 15
  • 190. We need urgent action on bothMitigation&Adaptation
  • 191. Mitigation: Reducing Emissions
  • 192. How will all that affect HUNGER?
  • 193. We observe…
    Floods in Pakistan
    Droughts in Russia
    Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA
  • 194.
  • 195. We observe…
    Floods in Pakistan
    Droughts in Russia
    Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA
  • 196.
  • 197. Droughts and Floods?
  • 198. Yes, The Models predict that Both will co-exist
  • 199. We observe…
    Floods in Pakistan
    Droughts in Russia
    Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA
  • 200. Hurricanes and floods in USA
  • 201. All these intemperate weather conditions lead to stresses on food production
  • 202. The Food on which we all depend
  • 203. Drought Devastates Agriculture
  • 204. That leads to More Hunger
  • 205. Above all, Science must be mobilized
  • 206. The Role Of Science
  • 207. From the Green Revolution to the Doubly Green Revolution
  • 208.
  • 209. AREA SAVED
    India -- All Cereals,1960-1990
    Millions of Hectares
    250
    200
    150
    AREA SAVED
    100
    AREA USED
    50
    1960
    1965
    1970
    1975
    1980
    1985
    1990
    Total production: 1961: 87million tons -- 1990 :197 million tons
  • 210.
  • 211.
  • 212.
  • 213.
  • 214. Doubly green revolution
    More genetically diverse crops
    Less chemical inputs (IPM and other means)
    Integrated soil, water and nutrient management
    Small holder farming system context, environmentally and socio-economically
  • 215.
  • 216.
  • 217.
  • 218.
  • 219. Recognize The Gender Dimension
  • 220. Promoting Alternatives to Slash and Burn
  • 221. AlwaysPro-Poor Pro-Women Pro-Environment
  • 222. A Double Shift in the Research Paradigm:
    -- Contextualization-- The new life sciences
  • 223. The Role Of Science
    Land
    Water
    Plants
    Animals
    The Role Of Aquatic Resources
  • 224. The Role Of Science
    Land
    Water
    Plants
    Animals
    The Role Of Aquatic Resources
  • 225. Land Use Transitions
    Source: J.A. Foley, et.al., Global Consequences of Land Use, in Science, 22 July 2005, v.309, pp.570-574
  • 226.
  • 227. The Role Of Science
    Land
    Water
    Plants
    Animals
    The Role Of Aquatic Resources
  • 228. Water Is Also a Constraint
  • 229.
  • 230. One Calorie = One Liter
  • 231.
  • 232.
  • 233.
  • 234.
  • 235.
  • 236. More Crop Per Drop!
  • 237. The Role Of Science
    Land
    Water
    Plants
    Animals
    The Role Of Aquatic Resources
  • 238. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
    Yield (t/ha)
    Ceiling
    Current
    Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
  • 239. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
    Yield (t/ha)
    Ceiling
    Current
    A
    Raise the Yield Ceiling
    Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
  • 240. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
    Yield (t/ha)
    Ceiling
    Current
    A
    Raise the Yield Ceiling
    Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
  • 241. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
    Yield (t/ha)
    Ceiling
    Current
    A
    B
    Raise the Yield Ceiling
    Close the Yield Gap
    Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
  • 242. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
    Yield (t/ha)
    Ceiling
    Current
    A
    B
    Raise the Yield Ceiling
    Close the Yield Gap
    Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
  • 243. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
    Yield (t/ha)
    Ceiling
    Current
    A
    B
    C
    Raise the Yield Ceiling
    Close the Yield Gap
    Sustain the Current Yield
    Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
  • 244. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production
    Yield (t/ha)
    Ceiling
    Current
    A
    B
    C
    Raise the Yield Ceiling
    Close the Yield Gap
    Sustain the Current Yield
    Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005
  • 245. Let’s take them by turn
  • 246. Technologies for Increasing the Yield Potential
  • 247. Different Plant Types of Rice Conventional Improved NPT
  • 248. New Plant Type Rice
  • 249. Technologies for Closing the Yield Gap
  • 250. Biological cost of weeds, Diseases and Insects
  • 251. Biological Control
  • 252. IPM: Working With Nature
    Bio-control
    Pheromone trap
    Need-based chemicals
    Host-plant resistance
    Etc.
  • 253. Reaction to Bacterial BlightResistant Susceptible
  • 254. Stem-Borer Larvae from Transgenic Rice (top) and Control (bottom)
  • 255. 4. Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Productivity must rise faster than price declines to generate surpluses for the small-holder farmers and reduce their poverty as their cheaper products help reduce the poverty in the cities
    Measure in terms of Total Factor Productivity (land, water, labor, energy and chemical inputs)
  • 256. Technologies Needed For:
    increasing the yield potential
    closing the yield gap, including pest management
    Soil, water & nutrient management
    Labor & capital input management
    developing nutritious crops (more later)
  • 257. The Role Of Science
    Land
    Water
    Plants
    Animals
    The Role Of Aquatic Resources
  • 258.
  • 259.
  • 260. Increasing demand for feed
  • 261. A Huge Increase In Feed Requirements
  • 262. Not Just for Food
  • 263. Conversion Into Proteins(% of Feed that is converted to Protein)
    25%
    13%
    5%
    Beef Pork Poultry Fish
    Source: Time magazine, 18 July 2011, p. 29
  • 264. Conversion Into Proteins(% of Feed that is converted to Protein)
    30%
    25%
    13%
    5%
    Beef Pork Poultry Fish
    Source: Time magazine, 18 July 2011, p. 29
  • 265. The Role Of Science
    Land
    Water
    Plants
    Animals
    The Role Of Aquatic Resources
  • 266. Source: William S. Alevizon, Pisces Guide to Caribbean Reef Ecology, Gulf Publishing Company (1994).
  • 267.
  • 268.
  • 269. Global Seafood consumption has increased dramatically, and natural fish stocks are heavily overfished
  • 270. Global Aquaculture Production:1950 = one million tons2008 = 47.3 million tons
  • 271. But Aquaculture is still only about 50% of consumption in 2011
  • 272. Our Reefs Today:The Challenge and the Response
  • 273. The Role Of Science
    Land
    Water
    Plants
    Animals
    The Role Of Aquatic Resources
  • 274. The Role Of Science
    But
    What about
    Biotechnology
    ?
  • 275. Biotechnology
    Promise and perils
    Partnerships for benign applications
    Public-private
    CGIAR-NARS-AROs-NGOs
  • 276.
  • 277.
  • 278. Global Area of Biotech Crops.Million of Hectares (1996 to 2009)
    200

    180


    Trait Hectares
    160

    Total Hectares

    140


    Industrials


    Developing
    120




    100


    80









    60















    40







    20









    0

    1996
    2009
    2008
    2007
    2006
    2005
    2004
    2003
    2002
    2001
    2000
    1999
    1998
    1997
    14 million farmers in 25 countries planted 134 million hectares (330 million acres in 2009, a sustained increase of 7% or 9 million hectares (22 million acres) compared to 2008.
    Source: Clive James, 2009.
  • 279.
  • 280. Modern biotechnology
    Raises profound issues
    Despite controversy, has enormous promise
    Can do things we cannot do by conventional breeding – e.g. Vitamin A rice
  • 281. It is a tool, like any other.It should not be demonized nor assumed to be a miracle.
  • 282. The Power Of Policy
  • 283. Policy Counts
  • 284. Sustainable development does not mean that people will live worse…
  • 285. Let’s look at income and health
  • 286. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    0
    2
    4
    6
    8
    10
    12
    14
    16
    18
    20
    1987
    1980
    1970
    1961
    1950
    Life Expectancy
    (Thousands)
    Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
  • 287. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    0
    2
    4
    6
    8
    10
    12
    14
    16
    18
    20
    1987
    1980
    1970
    1961
    1950
    Life Expectancy
    (Thousands)
    Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
  • 288. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    0
    2
    4
    6
    8
    10
    12
    14
    16
    18
    20
    1987
    1980
    1970
    1961
    1950
    Life Expectancy
    (Thousands)
    Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
  • 289. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    0
    2
    4
    6
    8
    10
    12
    14
    16
    18
    20
    1987
    1980
    1970
    1961
    1950
    Life Expectancy
    (Thousands)
    Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)
  • 290. 8X!!!
    That is to say that well conceived, well targeted policies can be the equivalent of a general increase in average incomes by 8X with laissez-faire
  • 291. Transforming Global Agriculture
  • 292. Agriculture Is A Complex FieldSummary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, IAASTD, 2009
    Source: http://www.agassessment.org/docs/IAASTD_GLOBAL_SDM_JAN_2008.pdf
  • 293. Managing Agriculture is a complex task:Summary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, IAASTD, 2009
  • 294. Ten Commandments For Global Agriculture
  • 295. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 296. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 297. 1. Reform Policies And Markets
    Globally: Fair trade
    Locally:
    Remove urban bias
    Improve access to markets
    reduce post harvest losses
  • 298.
  • 299. 1. Reform Policies And Markets
    Globally: Fair trade
    Locally:
    Remove urban bias (educ., health, etc.)
    Improve access to markets
    reduce post harvest losses
  • 300. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 301. So, dealing with global poverty requires that we address rural poverty…ANDA special focus on small-holder farmers in developing countries in particular to address the problem of food security
  • 302. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 303. 3. Husband Natural Resources
    Agriculture is the major interface between people and nature
    Sustainable development is beneficial for all
    Resource degradation hits the poor worst
  • 304. The Most Important Environmental Action Is to Reduce the Need for More Land Under Cultivation
  • 305. It will preserve habitats and biodiversity
  • 306.
  • 307. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 308. 4. Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Productivity must rise faster than price declines to generate surpluses for the small-holder farmers and reduce their poverty as their cheaper products help reduce the poverty in the cities
    Measure in terms of Total Factor Productivity (land, water, labor, energy and chemical inputs)
  • 309. Raiseproductivity of small-holderfarmersfasterthan the price of food drops
    Rice
    production
    Rice
    price
    Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003
    Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update)
    Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets
    World rice production and pricesadjusted for inflation, 1961-2002
  • 310. Less Water
    Less Land
    Less Labor
    Less Chemicals
    Increasing
    Population
    Future Challenges
    To Produce More Food
  • 311. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 312. 5. Improve Nutritional Content
    Enormous health benefits
    Bio-fortification is just the beginning
    Edible vaccines?
  • 313. Sweet Potatoes with and Without Beta-Carotene
    With
    Without
  • 314.
  • 315. Longer, More Productive Lives
  • 316. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 317. 6. Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Most farmers live precariously
    Downside is devastating
    Climate change is increasing vulnerability
  • 318.
  • 319.
  • 320. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 321. 7. Empower Women
    Essential to recognize the gender dimension of agriculture
    Empowering Women results in major improvements in infant mortality, school enrolments, child morbidity
  • 322.
  • 323.
  • 324.
  • 325. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 326. 8. Reach Out To The Ultra-Poor
    Market incentives do not work for the ultra-poor
    Trickle-down does not work
    Special Programs will be needed
  • 327.
  • 328.
  • 329. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 330. 9. Support Science
    We need more support for science in developing countries
    Not just technology
  • 331. 331
  • 332. 332
  • 333. The Divide in S&T Capacity
  • 334.
  • 335.
  • 336. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 337. Rhetoric
    Declarations
    Plans
    Targets
    Action
  • 338. “We have the capacity to eliminate hunger from the face of the earth in our lifetime.
    We need only the will.”
    President John F. Kennedy
    World Food Congress 1963
  • 339.
  • 340. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture
    Reform Policies And Markets
    Focus On Small-holder Farmers
    Husband Natural Resources
    Raise Agricultural Productivity
    Improve Nutritional Content
    Address Short-term Vulnerability
    Empower Women
    Reach Out To The Ultra-poor
    Support Science
    Translate Rhetoric Into Action
  • 341. Envoi
  • 342. All the Parts Are Essential:They Reinforce Each Other
  • 343. The Whole Is More Than the Sum of the Parts
  • 344. Diagnosis
    How to find the key pressure points in the system
    How to choose interventions that will have maximum impact on these
    Must focus on raising productivity in the complex ecosystem of the small holder farm
    Must bring science and other inputs to the farmers
  • 345. No policy or program willeverbesufficientaloneWeneed a range of interventions… Many existing policies need to be adjusted and many new programs need to be developed.
  • 346. Several policies and programs need to be developed for:
    Agriculture
    Environment
    Social Issues
    Political Issues
    Participation
    Gender
    Urbanization
    Poverty
    Infrastructure
    Economy
    Trade
    Marketing
    Public/Private Interface
    Finance and credit
    Local, National, Régional and International Issues
    And more …
  • 347.
  • 348.
  • 349. It can be Mastered and Solved
  • 350.
  • 351. Dare to dream!Dare to be bold!
  • 352. The specter of Malthus still haunts the world…
  • 353. We can abolish Hunger
  • 354. Our groupThe New Abolitionists
    Limited size, limited resources
  • 355. The Oppositioncynics, entrenched interests & the inertia of current injustice
    Large size, unlimited resources
  • 356. But we will surprise the World!
  • 357. Thank You
  • 358.
  • 359. The images used in this presentation are strictly for the educational purpose of this lecture. Any use by anyone for any other purpose should be after consulting the copyright owners of these pictures