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Global diet change: Implications for agriculture and nutrition

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Mark Rosegrant …

Mark Rosegrant
2020 Conference on "Leveraging Agriculture for Improving Nutrition and Health"
February 11, 2011

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  • 1. Global Diet ChangeImplications for Agriculture and Nutrition Mark W. Rosegrant Director Siwa Msangi Senior Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division
  • 2. Projected Food Prices: Increasing Scarcity Based on IFPRI IMPACT Scenarios 250 2010 2050 no CC 2050 CC 200 150 100 50 0 Wheat Maize Rice Notes: 2010 = 100; CC = climate change www.ifpri.org
  • 3. Non-food Competitors in Production Demand for biofuels and bioenergy Emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration Conservation and biodiversity Energy Food Water Landwww.ifpri.org
  • 4. Agricultural Growth and Food Security Supply drivers Demand drivers Climate change Population: 9 billion people in 2050 Water and land scarcity Income growth: Africa, not just Asia and Latin America Science and technology policy Urbanization: in 2008 50% urban Investment in in 2050 78% urban agricultural research Policy and governance reformwww.ifpri.org
  • 5. Major Consequences Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed Half of growth in grain demand will be for livestock Intense pressure on land and water www.ifpri.org
  • 6. Dietary and Food System Approaches to Improving NutritionReducing post harvest losses• 10% for grains; 25% for perishables• Economic recoverability limitedWasting less food• 20% wastage in householdsConsuming fish from sustainable stocksReducing consumption of meat and dairy productswww.ifpri.org
  • 7. Key QuestionWould reduction in meat consumption in richer countries improve food security in developing countries? www.ifpri.org Page 7
  • 8. Dietary Change Is Not Easy CAMPAIGNS Advocacy, educational, and public relations campaigns PROMOTE LOW-MEAT MENUS Cafeterias, schools, hospitals, and other public-sector institutions POLICIES Taxation and subsidy policies to increase the cost of meat compared to other food productswww.ifpri.org
  • 9. Per Capita Meat ConsumptionLess meat in rich countries = more in developing countries 100 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)Kilogram per capita (per year) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 China Brazil High-income Sub-Saharan Developing countries Africa minus China & Brazil www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  • 10. Feed Demand for Coarse Grains Less meat = Lower feed-grain demand 1,400 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat) 1,200Millions of metric tons 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 China Brazil Developing High Income World minus China & Brazil www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  • 11. World Prices of Grains Reduced feed grain demand = Lower grain prices 300 2000 2030 baseline 250US$ per metric ton 200 150 100 50 0 Rice Wheat Maize www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  • 12. Per Capita Food Grain Consumption Lower grain prices increases demand 180 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat) 160Kilogram per capita (per year) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 High-income countries Sub-Saharan Africa Developing minus China & Brazil www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  • 13. Per Capita Calorie Availability Lower prices increase calorie access 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat) 3,600 3,400 Kcal per capita (per day) 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 China Brazil Developing High income minus China & Brazilwww.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  • 14. Child Malnutrition Small improvement 160 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat) 140 Millions of children aged 0-5 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 All Sub-Saharan Africa All Asia Developing countries Source: IMPACT model projectionswww.ifpri.org
  • 15. Lower Meat Production Saves Large Areas of Pasture and Cropland 250 HIC only HIC + China BrazilArea saved (millions of hectares) 200 150 100 50 0 China Brazil Developing High income World minus China & Brazil www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections
  • 16. Conclusions Halving of meat consumption in richer countries has • small nutrition benefits in developing countries • big land saving impacts Dietary change is a useful tool for improved food security and nutrition But transformative progress requires much broader investment in agricultural and rural development www.ifpri.org