Climate Change Impacts in Vietnam: Potential for Agricultural Mitigation


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Claudia Ringler
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Hanoi, May 3, 2010

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Climate Change Impacts in Vietnam: Potential for Agricultural Mitigation

  1. 1. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN VIETNAM: POTENTIAL FOR AGRICULTURAL MITIGATION Claudia Ringler International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Washington, DC Hanoi, May 3, 2010
  2. 2. POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS • Vietnam is expected to be particularly hard hit by climate change – due to its tropical location, long coastal line, and mega deltas • Climate change impacts on agriculture are channeled through changes in (inter-annual and intra-annual) precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and sea level rise (inundation and salinity intrusion) • Climate impacts affect hydrology, runoff, and thus water availability for irrigation and other uses • Adverse impacts of climate change can affect economic growth, poverty and malnutrition 2
  3. 3. SELECTION OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS: Moisture Index for GCM Climate Projection in 2050 Drier Wetter
  4. 4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS Average Climate Moisture Index  Driest scenario: IPSL-CM4; wettest scenario: GISS-ER  MONRE scenario is the Vietnamese government official climate change scenario for A2  Sea level rise scenario: 17 cm by 2030, 30 cm by 2050  2030 (2016-45); 2050 (2036-2065)
  5. 5. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS Mean Annual Temperature Changes by AEZ (oC) Mean Annual Precipitation Changes by AEZ (%)
  6. 6. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS % Basin Runoff Changes Red River Basin - 2030 Red River Basin - 2050 200 200 150 150 IPSL 100 IPSL 100 GISS GISS 50 50 MONRE MONRE 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -50 -50 Mekong Delta Inflow Changes - 2030 Mekong Delta Inflow Changes - 2050 60 60 40 40 20 20 IPSL IPSL 0 GISS 0 GISS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec HadCM3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -20 HadCM3 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60  Red River Basin: Decreased wet-season flow under IPSL, increased dry season flow under GISS and MONRE  Mekong Delta: Major flow reduction under IPSL
  7. 7. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Crop Production Changes (%) IAE 2009
  8. 8. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS o Without CO2 fertilization, production declines for all crops and scenarios studied; with CO2 fertilization, MONRE scenario has production increases for all crops, while production of IPSL and GISS decline o Without CO2 fertilization, rice production losses range from 2.1 to 6.4 million ton per year in 2030, and 3.4 to 6.7 million ton in 2050 o Sea level rise along can cause about 2.7 million ton rice production loss in 2050, in the Mekong Delta
  9. 9. KEY ADAPTATION METHODS o Irrigation expansion and water savings in rice and other crops o Increased investment in agricultural research o Change of planting dates/crop varieties o Enhanced soil fertility management
  10. 10. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION Ag. Research & Extension 220 Yield Index (Historical Yield Growth) 200 180 Rice 160 Maize Cassava 140 Coffee 120 Sweet potato 100 Soybean 80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Still room for increase in agricultural productivity
  11. 11. OTHER ADAPTATION OPTIONS Shifting Planting Dates Winter-spring Rice Planting Area in Red River Delta
  12. 12. IFAD-IFPRI PARTNERSHIP ON CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ACTIVITIES AND SMALL FARMERS  Objective: connect small farmers with markets that reward climate change mitigation practices  Four countries: Morocco, Ghana, Mozambique, Vietnam  Our objective is to do for agriculture what people have successfully done for forestry: several projects are already receiving money from both regulated and voluntary markets
  13. 13. CHALLENGES Lack of previous experience (exception Kenya) “Technical” uncertainties: o amount of carbon that can be sequestered o best methods to store it in the ground o length of time it can be stored Workable solutions are needed to attract investors
  14. 14. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES  Activity 1: Current carbon market activities Review and assessment of current activities related to carbon markets in the country. Forestry mitigation and adaptation that contribute to mitigation will be included, but will not be the focus.  Activity 2: Review and analysis of institutional structures Assess current policies and institutions affecting access of the rural poor to carbon markets. Institutions will include the potential of various supply chains, producers of high value export crops, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and farmer organizations as aggregators and disseminators of management system changes and measurement technologies
  15. 15. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES  Activity 3: Assessment of climate change mitigation potential The third activity focuses on quantifying the mitigation potential. Agricultural mitigation potential will be quantified by agricultural sub-sector, location, and mitigation activity (including both reduction of emissions and carbon sequestration) regardless of costs and benefits.  Activity 4: Cost-benefit analysis of mitigation alternatives Activity 3 will be followed by an estimation of costs and benefits of the various mitigation activities. High -impact areas will be identified combining high mitigation potential with high poverty.
  16. 16. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES  Activity 5: Pilot study A pilot study for testing agricultural mitigation activities and testing of Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) techniques on the ground will be initiated in 2010. The field case study will include: consultations with officials and farmers at local case study sites, the implementation of a carbon baseline inventory of the study site, the development of technical factors relating agricultural activities with carbon savings, the testing of MRV, and the training of individuals for assessment and reporting  The climate change component will also continue to provide technical assistance to the activities of Capacity Strengthening and Knowledge Management throughout 2010. Outreach materials will be prepared in 2011