Ifad Ifpri Climate Change

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  • 1. Agriculture and Climate Change Research Needs Gerald Nelson Senior Research Fellow Presented at IFAD-IFPRI Joint Program In Policy Innovation and INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Communication Inaugural Workshop, 24 March 2009
  • 2. Presentation Overview  Climate change will affect agriculture • Higher global temperatures, more precipitation, more variability and extreme events • Likely negative effects: Where and how much?  Mitigation: Agriculture can • Reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses • Act as a sink for other sectors  Adaptation/resilience: Agriculture will need • New varieties, more infrastructure, changes in management practices and policies • International institutions that support resilience globally INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2
  • 3. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE Page 3
  • 4. Rising average temperatures Page 4 Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
  • 5. … could increase much more Page 5 Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)
  • 6. Consequences: Higher temperatures and more but shifting precipitation… Dec- Feb Jun- Aug Page 6 GCM3.1 (T63), SRES A1B Scenario Hadley Model, SRES A1B Scenario
  • 7. … but uncertainty about where and how much Dec- Feb Jun- Aug Hadley Model, SRES A1B Scenario Page 7
  • 8. Variability will increase 100-year drought events in Europe: Two climate models 2020’s 2070’s Figure 3.6 in Kundzewicz, Mata, et al. (2007) Page 8
  • 9. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture What did we think in the mid-1990s?  No problems • Agricultural effects of climate change would be manageable • Negative yield effects in temperate regions buffered by trade • CO2 fertilization important • Increased trade flows needed INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 9
  • 10. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture What did we think in the early 2000s?  Potential problems • Climate change manageable • Production in DCs benefit; declines in LDCs • Regional differences grow stronger over time • Substantial increases in risk of hunger in poorer nations • CO2 fertilization important • Increased trade flows needed INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 10
  • 11. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture What did we think in the mid-2000s?  Potential for problems is larger • Yields would likely increase somewhat in all regions • Smaller gains in the temperate regions than previous models • Small yield gains in the tropics • CO2 fertilization important • Increased trade flows needed INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 11
  • 12. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture What do we think in 2009? Rainfed maize yields decline 17% by 2050 Page 12
  • 13. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture What do we think in 2009? Irrigated rice yields decline 20% Page 13
  • 14. Ghana Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Ghana Irrigated Rice Yield Changes with 2050 Climate with 2050 Climate INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 14
  • 15. Morocco Rainfed Maize Yield Changes with 2050 Climate Morocco Irrigated Rice Yield Changes with 2050 Climate INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 15
  • 16. Mozambique Rainfed Maize Yield Mozambique Irrigated Rice Yield Changes with 2050 Climate Changes with 2050 Climate INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 16
  • 17. Vietnam Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Vietnam Irrigated Rice Yield Changes with 2050 Climate with 2050 Climate INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 17
  • 18. What about CO2 fertilization effect?  Needed in all models to offset some of productivity losses from climate change, but…  Recent reports on field experiments on CO2 fertilization are negative • Effects in the field 50-percent less than in experiments in enclosed containers • Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 increase susceptibility  soybean plants to the Japanese beetle  maize to the western corn rootworm INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 18
  • 19. AGRICULTURE AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Page 19
  • 20. Adaptation in agriculture is essential  Good development policy is important first step • Higher incomes from productive agricultural resources, used sustainably, provide resilience in the face of climate change  Location, location, location • Climate change effects vary, even within a country • What’s needed?  Location-specific analysis  Location-specific programs and policy measures  More open agricultural trade is needed for flexibility in face of uncertain future INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 20
  • 21. Adaptation needs  Increased expenditures in agricultural science and technology • Emphasis on crop breeding, including biotechnology, that targets abiotic and biotic stresses, and provides biological resilience  Increased investments in water storage and management  More development of rural Infrastructure • Physical – roads, market buildings and storage facilities, • Institutional – extension programs, credit and input markets, and reduced barriers to internal trade  Policy improvements to internalize externalities associated with environmental services • Innovative approaches to property rights INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 21
  • 22. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION Page 22
  • 23. Agriculture’s GHG emissions are large, but shares differ by region Total GHG emissions (Mt Share from Share from land-use CO2e) agriculture change and Forestry Region Europe 7,600 9.1 0.4 North America 7,208 7.1 -4.7 South America 3,979 23.6 51.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 543 12.7 60.4 Asia 14,754 14.4 26.8 Developing countries* 22,186 15.7 35.6 World 40,809 14 18.7 Source: WRI CAIT, 2009 Page 23 * - Non Annex 1 countries
  • 24. Agricultural mitigation: Cost-effective options  Change crop mixes • plants that are perennial and/or with deep root systems  Use cultivation systems that leave residues • reduce tillage, especially deep tillage  Shift land use from annual crops to • Perennial crops • Pasture • Agroforestry  KEY Issue – MRV - Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 24
  • 25. Methane mitigation from rice technology change (change in mt CO2 equivalent/ha/year) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 25
  • 26. Guatemala: Locations for Optimal Sequestration of Carbon Page 26
  • 27. Concluding remarks  Climate change will alter the agriculture of our children  Efforts to adapt to the inevitable change need to start now if we are to feed the world sustainably and reduce poverty  Agriculture can play an important role in mitigating GHG emissions  Including agriculture in Copenhagen is essential INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 27