Climate Smart Rd & Pr Approach

Seminar on South-south Cooperation between China and IFAD (9.23-9.29) Climate-smart Rural Development and Poverty Reduction Approach Dr. Wendao Cao Rural Development Specialist World Bank, Beijing

Outline
Climate change: processes, characteristics and threats
Climate Change and Poverty – An Integrated View
Climate-smart, Watershed Approach: Loess Plateau Concepts and Experiences
Conclusion

Climate change: processes, characteristics and threats Source: UNEP/GRID–Arendal

Incremental risks – present and pipeline
Increase in exposure to drought and long-term drying
Reduced agricultural productivity, especially in rainfed areas:
Global modelling points to losses of 10% for developing countries, ranging 7% Asia to 17% SSA, with gains for developed countries (Cline 2007)
Ricardian modelling for dryland SSA points to losses of 25% by 2060
Probabilistic Monte Carlo crop modelling reveals high (95%) probability of large losses for southern African maize, West African root crops and sorghum in Sahel (Lobell et al 2008)

Incremental risks continued
Coastal/Delta flooding and sea surges (Bangladesh, Vietnam and Egypt)
Port city exposure (50  150m by 2070: Mumbai, Guangzhou, Shanghai…OECD 2008)
Storm damage (eg Central America)
Increased water stress on ecosystems
Glacial melting
Short-term flooding risks (Nepal, Central Asia)
Long-term threat to irrigation systems (Indus, northern India and China)
Urban water supply (Peru)

Climate risks and vulnerability
Inability to cope with climate risk is already a major cause of poverty
Incremental risks superimposed on global picture of 2bn living on less than $2 a day and 1/3 children malnourished
‘ Low human development traps’:
Ex ante losses in productivity
Asset erosion
Capability erosion (health, nutrition, education)
Human impacts
Ethiopia: children aged -5 are 41% more likely to be stunted if born in drought year and affected
Global modelling for growth impacts have tended to obscure distributional concerns: the poor face earliest and deepest damage

Climate
Change
Increased severity and frequency of weather events
Gradual changes in temperature, sea level and climate zones, and fresh water
Economic, Equity and Poverty Outcomes
Growth and its distributional pattern will be affected
Increased variability. Poverty traps (country, region and household)
Increased risk and vulnerability to climate change
Transmission
Channels
Effects on livelihoods
Changes in capital stock and productivity
Increases in mortality and morbidity rates
Changes in settlement patterns
Political tensions and conflict
Changes in relative prices
Macro and fiscal effects
Climate Change and Poverty – An Integrated View (PR Board)

Policy Options and Trade-offs (PR Board) Increased short-term variability Gradual changes in mean Protection - Protective infrastructure (dams, flood walls, levees) -Same as short-term, although multiplies risk and overtime become prohibitive (negative externalities) Adaptation
- Drought resistant agriculture
- Adaptive infrastructure (houses on stilts, schools and health centers in boats)
- Vaccination campaigns , improved services
Building code regulations
- Land taxes and resettlement initiatives for vulnerable areas ------ Subsidies and incentives to promote less climate sensitive activities. -Improved water and energy and management and pricing policies Response - Emergency response plans (national and community levels) (water, housing, resettlement, etc.) -Improved and rebuilding of services and infrastructure in vulnerable areas - Disaster Insurance (public/private) - Targeted safety net programs -Disaster and meteorological monitoring systems (national and community based).

Case from China, Loess Plateau

Loess Plateau in China
Size: 640,000 km 2
Rural Population: 70m
Location: upper & middle reaches of the Yellow River
Stretches over 7 provinces
Map of China

The Loess Plateau one of the most seriously eroded places on earth. home to more than 50 million mostly very poor farmers. centuries of overuse of the natural resources and unsustainable farming practices. 1.6 b tons of sediment annually clog up the Yellow River, pose a serious flood risk in the lower reaches.

Eco-environmental Impact
Reduction in water storage capacity
Loss of soils, soil productivity; loss of farmland
Loss of vegetation, biomass & biodiversity
Climate changes
Poor air quality, increased dust storms
Increased pollution
Sedimentation downstream

Economic Impact
Lower yields & returns; Higher production costs
Farm income decline
Reduction in GDP
Loss of
grain production

Social Impact
Poverty
Reduced food security
Increased health problems
Vulnerability
Accelerated migration

Climate-smart, Watershed Management Approach (1994-2008)
Dual Objectives:
Improving income and livelihood
improving ecological conditions
Equally important. Impact each other

Inner Mongolia Shanxi Gansu Project Area The project covers 48 counties, 4 provinces, with area of 30,000 km2 in total. Project Scale The total investment of the project (two phases) was US$ 500million, among which US$ 300 million from the Bank loan. Shaanix

Institutional Measures
Participatory watershed planning process
Huge incentive through transfer of State land to farmers through long-term lease
Emphasize both bottle-up and top-down approaches

Project Structure

Financial Instruments
High counterpart funding (50%); strong government ownership
Community in-kind contribution
Clear distinction between public and private goods
Make clear that the WB loan needs to be repaid by farmers

Implementation Arrangements
Structure and no-structure interventions
Sufficient staffing, clearly defined roles & responsibilities, stressing institutional and community capacity building
Strong emphasis on technology transfer
Enforcement of policy
Strict supervision of physical and financial progress, problem solving and feedback mechanism and rigorous M&E
Foster inter-agency collaboration partnership & networking

Policies and Enforcement
Banned free range grazing of sheep and goats
Enforced land tenure policy: farmers receive contracts with 30-50 years use rights
Banned planting on steep slopes

Impact
Physical : 920,000 ha rehabilitated; terrace 190,000 ha; diversified agriculture; beneficiaries = 2.5 million people; improved rural infrastructure
Financial : Grain production from 428 kg to 630 kg per capital; per capita income increased from US$ 45 to US$ 203 (US$ 44 more than non-project areas)
Social : 2.5 million people out of poverty; women’s social status and children school enrollment raised
Environmental : vegetation cover from 17% to 33%; bio-diversity increased and micro-climate improved; annual soil erosion reduced by over 107 million tons; downstream improvements

BEFORE : Mainly slope-land cropping; sever soil erosion; very poor natural vegetation; gullies grazed heavily by goats AFTER : moderate slopes are terraced; good yields due to water conser-vation; steep slopes planted with shrubs/ trees using contour trenches; entire watershed is disallowed for grazing, allowing vegetation to return

1999 : Project site - site preparation for tree planting; earth shaped water harvesting pits to catch run-off; protection ridges along gullies to prevent further cutting 2004 : Similar site in the same watershed - water harvesting pits disappear in grass & vegetation

1999 : Project site - pits for tree planting on top of hills, protected by stones preventing soil from further erosion … a similar site 5 years later

Contour planting of black locust trees at early stage of project implementation … the same location in 2004

Comprehensive watershed treatment in 1999 the same location in 2004

Large-scale Chinese pine plantation in northern Shanxi in 1999 … the same location in 2004 (notable strong grass vegetation returns after grazing ban)

Lessons
Planning process
Participation approach
Coordination mechanism
Investment mechanism
M&E system

1. Planning Process
Considering interaction of land, water & other natural resources
Decentralized and participatory
Iterative learning

2. Participatory Approach
Re-define government role as regulator and service provider
Communities and f armers are central in rehabilitation programs
Secured land tenure & other natural resources users rights

3. Coordination Mechanism
Institutional framework:
Among Government agencies
With farmers / private sector / NGOs
N ational watershed management network

4. Investment Mechanism
Integration and coordination of fiscal resources
Work in partnership with private sector
Combine resources with policies

5. M&E Process
M&E system to inform all stakeholders about:
socio-economic and environmental impacts of watershed-based interventions
interactions between people and environment
long-term changes within the watershed
improve the quality and efficiency of data collection, handling, analysis, and sharing
ensure accountability
be cost effective
Innovative approaches: participatory M&E

Conclusion/checklist: climate-smart approaches (WDR 2010)
Mgnt aligned with ecological processes and defined at appropriate spatial scale
Cooperation among administrative levels, sectors, and line departments;
Broad stakeholders and research centers, in problem solving and decision making
Enabling legislation and legal framework to support local action
Adaptable legislation and policies to response to new information
Long time horizon for planning and capacity building
Assessment of flexible and reversible measures
Experimentation and learning through policy experiments to inform management
Full consideration of alternative scenarios and of structural and nonstructural measures
Mechanisms to understand and challenge assumptions
Explicit communication of assumptions and consideration of uncertainty
Use of information and monitoring to inform policy
Generation of scientific and technical knowledge to develop new practices
Appropriate financing system

Thank You! For more information, please contact: Dr. Wendao Cao World Bank Office Beijing, P R China Tel: (86-10-58617693); Fax: (86-10-58617800) Email: wcao1@worldbank.org

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Climate Smart Rd & Pr Approach

by IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development on Sep 29, 2009

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Climate Smart Rd & Pr Approach — Presentation Transcript