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2 t.k.-tk employment elderly thailand ppt 2 t.k.-tk employment elderly thailand ppt Presentation Transcript

  • EMPLOYMENT BEHAVIOUR OF THE ELDERLY IN THAILAND Thuttai Keeratipongpaiboon Department of Economics School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London The 11th IFA Global Conference on Ageing 28 May – 1 June 2012. Prague, the Czech Republic International Federation on Ageing (IFA)A part of the CSEAS Project
  • Structure 1 2 3 41 Introduction2 Old-Age Employment Situation in Thailand3 Determinant of Employment Decisions of the Elderly4 Conclusion 2
  • Introduction 1 2 3 4Significance of the Research• Increasing longevity: longer period of retirement• Thai elderly people cannot rely on their own savings and invisible pensions: need family supports• Urbanisation has deteriorated strength of family relationship: what happen to Thai elderly people?• Possibility: a number of Thai elderly people have to be economically active for their own survival.• Research aim: to study dynamic of employment behaviour of the elderly in ThailandMethodology • Data • Socio-Economic Survey (SES) Data, 1990-2007 (National Statistical Office) • Survey of the Older Persons in Thailand (SOP), 2007 (National Statistical Office) • Secondary data from reliable sources • Methodology • Descriptive Analysis • Econometric Analysis – using a Probit regression model 3 View slide
  • Situation of Population Ageing in Thailand 1 2 3 4 Old-age Dependency Ratio is on an upward trend: Thailand has the highest rate in the SEA region 14,0 Old-Age Dependency Ratio (% 65+/15-64) 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia LAOS Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Timor-Leste Viet NamRemark: an old-age dependency ratio is defined as a ratio of population 65+ per 100 population 15-64.Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition. 4 View slide
  • Summary of the Elderly in Thailand 1 2 3 4Share of the Elderly by Living Arrangements, Thailand, 1990-2007 In 2007, the majority are: • Attaining primary education or less (91.78%) • Female (56.27%) • Household heads (59.87%) • Married (60.68%) • Able to go out without assistance (healthy, 87.08%) • Not working (58.09%) • Not living in a household with pension incomes (94.60%) • Living in the Northeast (35.39%) • Living with their children (60.39%)Share of the Elderly by employment situation, Thailand, 1990-2007 • Living in three-generational households (36.92%) Average age of Thai elderly increased from 69.15 (1990) to 69.72 years. Remark: *excluding skipped generation households Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data 5
  • Old-Age Employment Situation 1 2 3 4Labour Force Participation Rates, the World Regions, 2005 Age Group Region/Country1 25-54 55-64 65+ Men Women Men Women Men Women World 95.1 66.7 73.5 38.7 30.2 11.3 Developed Countries 91.9 75.3 63.9 44.9 13.4 6.3 Economies in Transition 90.7 81.3 52.6 31.2 14.2 7.8 Africa 96.2 61.0 86.5 48.3 57.4 25.8 Asia 96.3 64.2 77.6 35.4 38.0 13.2 Latin America and the Caribbean 94.3 64.3 76.1 37.2 37.2 13.7 Oceania 87.4 73.3 76.0 60.6 51.4 33.4 Thailand 95.9 82.2 81.8 65.7 41.0 21.7Source: United Nations (2007, p.61, Table IV.2), Development in an Ageing World; Author’s own calculation from the ILO’s data, http://laborsta.ilo.org/ accessed on 12 march 2012. • The labour-force participation rates of Thai elderly persons are quite high; higher than the world average. • Almost one-fifth of Thai females aged 65 and over were found in the workforce in 2005. • The LFP rates of females are quite high comparatively to Asia, LAC, Economies in Transition and the World. • The share of elderly in Thailand’s labour force is on an upward trend; increasing from 3.7% to 7.0% Source: summarised from the Ministry of Labour (2007), The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand. during 1986-2006. 6
  • Old-Age Employment SituationSituations of Old-Age Labour Force, Thailand, 1986-2006 1 2 3 4 •Trends: more females, more older elderly (65+), better educated. •The majority are self-employed (60.97% in 2006). More elderly people are recently found in the private sector. Source: summarised from the Ministry of Labour (2007), The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand.
  • Old-Age Employment Situation 1 2 3 4Old-Age Employment Situations Thailand by Living Arrangements, 2007 Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data 8
  • Old-Age Employment Situation 1 2 3 4The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand, by Living Arrangements and Age Group, 2007 Percentage of Economically Active Elderly Persons 70 61.7 60 55.0 52.1 53.6 in Each Age Group (%) 50 47.3 45.6 45.0 42.6 43.0 39.5 40 33.4 35.6 35.6 35.6 33.0 34.0 32.4 31.1 29.6 30 26.8 25.1 22.4 23.4 21.6 23.3 20.7 20 16.8 13.8 15.1 13.7 14.1 10 6.7 5.1 7.6 6.4 0 Total Elderly (60+) Total Elderly (65+) 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 and over Age Groups (Year) Three-or-More-Generational Households Two-Generational Households (excl. Skipped) Skipped Generation Households One-Generational Households All Living Arrangements Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data 9
  • Old-Age Employment Situation 1 2 3 4Reasons for Remaining in the Labour Force of the Elderly, by living arrangements, 2007 100% 80% 51.72 43.86 54.88 57.41 60% 54.83 40% 20% 41.49 36.35 34.83 34.60 33.20 0% All Living Arrangements Three-or-More- Two-Generational S kipped Generation One-Generational Generational Households Households (exc S kipped) Households Households Still Healthy Looking after themselves/family Looking after their children Noone can replace the job Not retire yet Having debt Spend time Help child(ren)/ family members Others Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data 10
  • Old-Age Employment Situation 1 2 3 4Reasons for Leaving the Labour Force of the Elderly, by living arrangements, 2007 100% 80% 60% 61.12 72.61 77.80 71.10 69.94 40% 20% 19.12 9.13 8.59 8.15 7.03 0% All Living Arrangements Three-or-More-Generational Two-Generational Skipped Generation O ne-Generational Households Households (exc Skipped) Households Households Household working/ looking after family members S pouse/Child(ren) do not allow to work Waiting for next season Too old Incapable for work with disability Illness Voluntary idle Looking or waiting for a job Pension official To rest Others Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data 11
  • Determinant of Old-Age Employment Year Year 1 2 3 4 Variables Variables 1990 1994 1998 2004 2007 1990 1994 1998 2004 2007I. Demographic Factors III. Household Characteristics- Age -0.027*** -0.028*** -0.029*** -0.029*** -0.028*** - Central 0.049 0.050 0.073 0.048 0.126*** (-11.14) (-14.41) (-18.38) (-17.17) (-22.15) (0.61) (0.84) (1.19) (1.40) (3.78)- Secondary Education -0.207*** -0.018 -0.012 -0.014 -0.037 - North 0.032 -0.022 0.050 0.040 0.122*** (-3.31) (-0.30) (-0.19) (-0.35) (-1.21) (0.39) (-0.38) (0.81) (1.14) (3.53)- Bachelor’s Degree 0.011 -0.107 0.050 -0.038 -0.117*** - Northeast -0.013 0.055 -0.020 0.058 0.112*** (0.10) (-1.16) (0.43) (-0.73) (-2.64) (-0.16) (0.90) (-0.36) (1.62) (3.25)- Master’s Degree or Higher 0.187 -0.024 -0.204** - South 0.170* 0.081 0.125** 0.127*** 0.187*** (1.40) (-0.16) (-2.45) (1.84) (1.25) (1.97) (3.21) (4.91)- Male 0.118*** 0.056* 0.113*** 0.075*** 0.165*** - Rural -0.073* 0.000 0.013 -0.060*** -0.035** (2.67) (1.72) (4.19) (3.32) (8.83) (-1.65) (0.02) (0.39) (-3.72) (-2.46)- Household Head 0.177*** 0.262*** 0.188*** 0.273*** 0.228*** - Live in Three-or-More- -0.040 -0.017 -0.125*** -0.056* (3.37) (6.90) (7.11) (12.40) (12.23) Generational Household (-0.69) (-0.41) (-3.07) (-1.84)- Married 0.191*** 0.220*** 0.173*** 0.177*** 0.156*** - Live in Two-Generational -0.085 -0.208*** -0.154*** -0.230*** -0.198*** (4.81) (6.87) (7.13) (7.73) (8.42) Household (-1.65) (-5.72) (-5.51) (-9.10) (-9.35)- Able to go out by Themselves 0.269*** - Live in Skipped Generation 0.288*** 0.280*** 0.309*** 0.254*** 0.295*** without Assistance (10.98) Household (4.39) (5.92) (7.46) (7.63) (10.00)- Access to Medical Welfare -0.014 0.004 - Household Size -0.210*** -0.205*** -0.186*** -0.213*** -0.256*** (-0.40) (0.11) (-10.76) (-9.73) (-13.61) (-15.37) (-22.38)II. Economic Factors - Household In the Agricultural 0.086** 0.114*** 0.102*** 0.430*** 0.386***- Pensions (Yes) -0.086 -0.145** -0.066 -0.145*** -0.114*** Sector (2.25) (3.57) (4.15) (20.47) (20.59) (-1.23) (-1.99) (-1.27) (-3.05) (-3.09) - Number of Recipients in -0.119*** -0.133*** -0.129*** 0.001- Transfer Payments (Yes) 0.024 -0.026 0.012 -0.026 Household (-4.96) (-7.05) (-7.50) (0.12) (0.61) (-0.88) (0.58) (-1.31) - Number of Earners in Household 0.431*** 0.493*** 0.465*** 0.438*** 0.494***- Poverty (Yes) 0.055 0.093** 0.036 0.080*** 0.024 (15.17) (19.82) (23.57) (27.01) (34.02) (1.27) (2.50) (1.01) (2.67) (0.90) Number of Observations 2,279 5,861 6,913 15,478 20,120- Savings (Yes) 0.007 -0.017 0.014 -0.003 -0.012 Wald Chi-Squared 474.66 894.06 1085.73 1883.94 2785.62 (0.22) (-0.67) (0.60) (-0.21) (-0.73) Probability > Chi-Squared 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000*** Pseudo R-Squared 0.4974 0.5670 0.5660 0.6041 0.6240 Log Pseudo-Likelihood -796.59 -1724.72 -1986.62 -4175.35 -5144.71 Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data 12
  • Determinant of Old-Age Employment 1 2 3 4Significant Factors:•Demographic Factors: age(-), male(+), household head(+), married(+), healthy(+)•Economic Factors: pensions(-), poverty(+)•Household Characteristics: rural(-), agricultural(+), household size(-),one-generational households(+)Key Findings:•The elderly living in one-generational households are more likely to be economicallyactive than those staying in other living arrangements.•Implying: the presence of adult children is one of the key factors in the older persons’decision to continue or to quit working. 13
  • Conclusions 1 2 3 4Conclusions • The labour-force participation rates of the elderly have been increasing over these two decades. • The majority of employed older persons are male, aged between 60-69, low-educated, married and self-employed. • Elderly persons living in one-generational households are more likely to be economically active than those staying in other living arrangements. • The main reason for remaining in the workforce is financial i.e. poverty and low family support. Another reason is that they are too healthy to retire. • The key factor of labour-force withdrawal is health problems; they are too old to work.Policy Implications • Although working could contribute to the country’s economic development, elderly employment should be also considered in its social aspects. • Ideally, older persons should continue working as long as they wish and as long as their ability and competency allow them to do. 14
  • Thank You Thuttai Keeratipongpaiboon Department of Economics SOAS, University of London Email: 231827@soas.ac.uk 15
  • Supporting Documents 16
  • Living Arrangements of the ElderlyShare of the Elderly, by Living Arrangements and Regions of Residence, 1990 & 2007 1990 2007• The majority of elderly people in Bangkok live in two-generational households. Meanwhile, the majority of older persons in the Northeast and Central regions live in three-generational households.• Trend: more elderly people are found in one-generational households in every region.• Skipped generational households are mostly found in the Northeast and North regions; an upward trend.• The average size of household is decreasing in every region. This is because of a delay of marriage and changing value towards having children. Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990 and 2007 SES data 17
  • Factors affecting Family RelationshipKey factors to decrease the importance of family: Industrialisation, Urbanisation and Migration - Family - Wage Employment - Parental Productive of Individuals Power + Industrialisation Enterprise - Cost of Home- Joint/Stem produced Goods + Female - Family Labour - + Demand for Force + Participations - + + Female Labour + Ability to Care Universal Per Capita Purchase + of the + + Primary and - Income - Privacy/Care Elderly + Fertility Secondary + + Schooling + - Child Survival Availability of + Caregivers + Filial Piety + Housing Urbanisation - Availability + + Separation of Migration the GenerationsRemarks: - Straight and single-headed arrows show casual relationships that run from the cause to the effect; meanwhile, curved and double-headed arrows represent correlated factors, - A sign shown next to the arrow demonstrates a relation between factors. The net impact of factors can be calculated by multiplying the signs. For example, if there is a negative sign between factor A and B, and also a negative sign between factor B and C, the relationship of factors A and C is positive. Source: Mason (1992), Figure 1 18
  • Regional Population Ageing in Thailand Shares of the Elderly and Old-Age Dependency Rations, Thailand, 2000-2025 Share of the Elderly (%) Old-Age Dependency Ratio (%) Region 2000 2010 2020 2025 2000 2010 2020 2025Whole Kingdom 9.43 11.90 17.51 21.22 14.30 17.61 26.58 33.28Bangkok 7.88 11.28 20.40 26.97 10.61 16.06 30.68 42.50Central (excl.BKK) 9.84 11.63 16.98 20.80 14.54 16.87 25.18 31.83North 11.09 13.43 20.16 24.21 17.02 19.65 31.02 39.08North-East 8.71 11.93 16.95 20.12 13.62 17.99 25.92 31.67South 9.41 10.76 14.61 17.45 15.06 16.42 22.45 27.28 Source: Author’s own calculation from the Thailand’s Population Projection 2000-2030 provided by NESDB 19
  • Age Profiles of Household SavingsAge Profiles of Savings (Whole Kingdom), by ages of household heads, 2007 household per capita income  household per capita consumption exp enditure household saving ratio  x 100 household per capita income Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data provided by NSO 20
  • Old-Age Poverty Share of the Poor Elderly (60+), by Region, Thailand, 1990-2007 Total Elderly People Share of Poor Elderly People to Total Elderly People (%) • Poor if household per capita income is Regions below the poverty line (%) 1990 1994 1998 2004 2007 Whole Kingdom 100.00 25.61 20.96 18.14 13.55 12.82 • The majority of poor elderly people Bangkok 100.00 7.14 2.34 1.79 1.79 1.55 are in the Northeast region. Central (excl.BKK) 100.00 21.93 10.97 13.25 7.95 5.26 • Rich households have positive North 100.00 26.85 19.77 15.97 19.77 14.18 savings; meanwhile, poor households North-East 100.00 30.61 32.18 27.10 17.65 20.40 are likely to face the problem of South 100.00 31.29 18.63 15.36 10.36 9.55 insufficient income. Source: Author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES dataShare of Poor Elderly People, by Region, Thailand, 1990-2007 Age Profiles of Household Savings, by Income Groups, Thailand, 2007 100 50 Household Saving Rate (%) 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 Age of Household Head 1st Decile 2nd Decile 3rd Decile 4th Decile 5th Decile 6th Decile 7th Decile 8th Decile 9th Decile 10th Decile household per capita income  household per capita consumption exp enditure household saving rate  x 100 household per capita incomeSource: Author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data 21
  • Fertility in Thailand Source Central Whole Bangkok (exclude North Northeast South and Year Kingdom Bangkok) Census 1960-19642 6.48 n/a1 6.06 6.36 6.97 6.52 2 1 1965-1969 6.19 n/a 5.32 5.71 7.20 6.48 3 1970-1974 5.41 3.15 4.75 4.74 6.78 5.95 3 1975-1979 3.88 2.40 3.43 3.23 4.88 4.59 4 1989 2.28 1.30 2.02 1.98 2.78 2.85 5 2000 1.82 1.17 1.53 1.76 2.15 2.25 2010-20506 1.85 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 7 SPC 1 1964-1965 6.30 n/a 5.90 6.47 6.61 6.02 1974-1976 4.90 3.46 4.11 3.74 6.25 6.12 1985-1986 2.73 1.74 2.49 2.25 3.10 4.05 1989 2.41 1.41 2.17 2.06 2.87 3.31 1991 2.17 1.13 1.95 1.97 2.67 2.98 1995-1996 2.02 1.26 1.66 1.89 2.44 2.85Remarks: 1 Bangkok was included in the Central region during 1960-1969; 2 1970 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office; 3 1980 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office; 4 1990 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office; 5 2000 Census with Indirect Method Estimate, National Statistic Office; 6 The United Nations (2009a), World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision; 7 Survey of Population Change, National Statistical Office.Source: adapted from Table 1 in Prachuabmoh and Mithranon (2003). 22
  • Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios Name DescriptionThe Standard The proportion of total elderly population to total working-age populationType 1 The proportion of total elderly population to economically active working-age populationType 2 The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to economically active working-age populationType 3 The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to economically active population aged 15 and overType 4 The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to total working-age population 23
  • Alternative Old-Age Dependency RatiosStandard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, the World, 1980-2020 Estimates Projections Source: Author’s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessed on 1 March 2010. 24
  • Alternative Old-Age Dependency RatiosStandard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, Thailand, 1980-2020 Estimates Projections Source: Author’s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessed on 1 March 2010. 25
  • Natural Increases and Net MigrationEstimates (1950-2010) and Projections (2010-2050), Thailand Thailand 1,200 1,000 800 (000) persons 600 400 200 0 1950-55 1955-60 1960-65 1965-70 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50 -200 -400 Natural Increase Net MigrationRemark: Natural Increase = Births – DeathsSource: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm accessed 8 March 2012. 26