2012 05-29 global challenges-ageing and shrinking lf_final rm
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2012 05-29 global challenges-ageing and shrinking lf_final rm Presentation Transcript

  • 1. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGGlobal Challenges:Ageing and potentially shrinkinglabour forcesRainer MünzErste GroupIFA 11th Global Conference on AgeingPrague, May 29, 2012Rainer Münz Page 1 May 29, 2012
  • 2. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Global demographic trendsRainer Münz Page 2 May 29, 2012
  • 3. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG 20th CenturyRainer Münz Page 3 May 29, 2012
  • 4. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG 21st CenturyRainer Münz Page 4 May 29, 2012
  • 5. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Reality no. 1: Growing world populationRainer Münz Page 5 May 29, 2012
  • 6. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGRainer Münz Page 6 May 29, 2012
  • 7. From 6 billion to 7 billion people:Contribution per continent to ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGearth’s 7th billion Asia Africa Latin America North America Europe OceaniaRainer Münz Page 7 May 29, 2012
  • 8. Total Population change by Major 3Area,1950-2100 ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Source: UN, 2010Rainer Münz Page 8 May 29, 2012
  • 9. … Europe’s, Russia’s and Japan’spopulations have already started to shrink ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGProjected population growth, 2010-2050, in % to -20 % -20% - -5% -5% - 0% 0% - 25% 25% - 75% 75% - 100% 100% - 150% 150% - 200% above 200% n. a.Source: Berlin Institute 2010Rainer Münz Page 9 May 29, 2012
  • 10. Some Regions of Europe have themost rapidly shrinking populations ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGProjected population change 2010-2030, in %Source: Berlin Institute 2010Rainer Münz Page 10 May 29, 2012
  • 11. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Reality no. 2: Global ageingRainer Münz Page 11 May 29, 2012
  • 12. Demographic ageing is a global phenomenonTotal Population change age groups 0-19 vs 50+, 1950-2100 ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Age 0-19 Age 50+ Source: UN, 2010Rainer Münz Page 12 May 29, 2012
  • 13. Europe is continuously getting older ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG 100 90 80 70 60AlterAge 50 2050 40 2010 30 1950 20 10 0 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Men (2010) in % Women (2010) Men (2050) Women (2050)Source: Eurostat, Europop 2008Rainer Münz Page 13 May 29, 2012
  • 14. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG … and driven by two trendsRainer Münz Page 14 May 29, 2012
  • 15. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGRainer Münz Page 15 May 29, 2012
  • 16. During the last six decades, global lifeexpectancy has increased by 20 years ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGLife expectancy by world regions, 1950-2015 80 70 60 50 Africa Asia Europe 40 Latin America North America Oceania World 30 1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015Source: UNPD 2011Rainer Münz Page 16 May 29, 2012
  • 17. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGRainer Münz Page 17 May 29, 2012
  • 18. In the same period, the overall number ofchildren per woman has halved ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGTotal fertility by world regions, 1950-2015 7 Africa Asia Europe 6 Latin America North America Oceania 5 World 4 3 2 1 0 1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015Source: UNPD 2011Rainer Münz Page 18 May 29, 2012
  • 19. Today 50% of humanity live in societies withless than 2 children per family ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGWorld population by Total Fertility, 1950-2100Population in million Source: UN, 2010Rainer Münz Page 19 May 29, 2012
  • 20. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG … however, demographic ageing is not affecting all regions the same wayRainer Münz Page 20 May 29, 2012
  • 21. Europe and Japan have the oldestpopulations ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGShare of age group 65+ in total population n. a. to 3% 3% - 6% 6% - 9% 9% - 12% 12% - 15% above 15%Source: UNPop Div 2011Rainer Münz Page 21 May 29, 2012
  • 22. The demographic development of the richer world isin a very advanced stage: Countries with a ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGstagnating or shrinking native population accountfor four-fifth of world economy China France Indonesia Russia Brazil Slowly growing Germany population India Egypt USA Low life expectancy, Italy high fertility Nigeria Japan South Africa Stagnating population Chad High life expectancy, Ethiopia low fertility Niger Shrinking population Ageing society Fast growing population Increasing life expectancy, gradually sinking fertilityRainer Münz Page 22 May 29, 2012
  • 23. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG What challenges is the rich world facing due to demographic trends?Rainer Münz Page 23 May 29, 2012
  • 24. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Challenge no. 1: Aging and eventually shrinking labour forcesRainer Münz Page 24 May 29, 2012
  • 25. Demographic trends affect laboursupply highly differently ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGDevelopment of labour force until 2020 (in %) below -5% -5% - 0% 0% - 10% 10%- 20%Source: based on ILO data 2011 above 20%Rainer Münz Page 25 May 29, 2012
  • 26. In some developed countries working-agepopulations have already started to shrink ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGWorking-age population, in millionSource: The Economist 2012Rainer Münz Page 26 May 29, 2012
  • 27. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG What can we do?Rainer Münz Page 27 May 29, 2012
  • 28. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Work 10 years longer than todayRainer Münz Page 28 May 29, 2012
  • 29. Therefore, labour force participation rate of the age group 55-64 needs to be increased ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Labour force participation rate of the age group 55-64, 2010 79,8 70,5 68,0 68,6 65,2 60,3 57,6 57,7 56,2 56,8 57,1 53,7 53,8 50,0 48,2 48,6 49,2 46,3 46,5 43,5 43,6 41,1 42,3 42,4 39,6 39,7 40,5 36,6 37,3 37,6 34,0 34,2 34,4 35,029,6 30,2TR MT PL MK HU SI IT BE HR LU FR SK RO GR AT BG ES EU CZ LV LT PT IE NL EE FI CY UK DK DE US JP CH NO SE IS EU countries Non EU countries Source: Eurostat 2012 EU-27 average an Rainer Münz Page 29 May 29, 2012
  • 30. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGRainer Münz Page 30 May 29, 2012
  • 31. Working longer is an option, but employingthe elderly needs adaptation in several areas ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG New pension system Lifelong learning New salary systemRainer Münz Page 31 May 29, 2012
  • 32. … even if such measures are notcheered by parts of the electorate ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGRainer Münz Page 32 May 29, 2012
  • 33. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Increase female labour force participationRainer Münz Page 33 May 29, 2012
  • 34. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Increase labour productivityRainer Münz Page 34 May 29, 2012
  • 35. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Bring in more migrantsRainer Münz Page 35 May 29, 2012
  • 36. Migration helps reducing the paceof demographic ageing ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGEU-27, age structure of population and of immigrants Median EU-27: 40.6 years Median Immigrants: 28.4 yearsSource: Eurostat, 2010.Rainer Münz Page 36 May 29, 2012
  • 37. The challenge is to attract the right skills ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGRainer Münz Page 37 May 29, 2012
  • 38. … via smart migration policies? ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGRainer Münz Page 38 May 29, 2012
  • 39. The US more easily of education by talent and skills Figure 7c: Migrants level attracts generation andImmigrants of birthcountry of residence - 2001 the US, Canada, Italy cohorts 1935-1975 in ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGand Spain by average years of schooling 17,0 Average number of years of schooling 15,0 13,0 US* Canada 11,0 Italy Spain* 9,0 7,0 5,0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Year of birthSource: Fargues 2010Rainer Münz Page 39 May 29, 2012
  • 40. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Tomorrow, the developed world will compete for workforce, especially for young and skilled migrantsRainer Münz Page 40 May 29, 2012
  • 41. ...but today, the problemseems to be another one ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGYouth unemployment (age 15-24, in %) Source: OECDRainer Münz Page 41 May 29, 2012
  • 42. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG None of the mentioned strategies alone isenough to overcome theageing problem, but their combination might do itRainer Münz Page 42 May 29, 2012
  • 43. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG All strategies are highly unpopular in Europe, but much less so in the US and CanadaRainer Münz Page 43 May 29, 2012
  • 44. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Challenge no. 2: Integration within increasingly diverse societiesRainer Münz Page 44 May 29, 2012
  • 45. How to encourage integration? ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGRainer Münz Page 45 May 29, 2012
  • 46. How to deal with ethnic, culturaland religious diversity? ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AGRainer Münz Page 46 May 29, 2012
  • 47. If you want to know more ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Overcrowded World? Global Population and International Migration Haus Publishing ISBN: 978-1-906598-10-5 € 9.95; $14.95, £ 9.90Rainer Münz Page 47 May 29, 2012
  • 48. ER S T E G R O UP BAN K AG Thank you for your attention! rainer.muenz@erstegroup.comRainer Münz Page 48 May 29, 2012