Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Overlooked Links in the Results Chain

on

  • 1,475 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,475
Views on SlideShare
1,097
Embed Views
378

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
15
Comments
0

4 Embeds 378

http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org 365
http://cqauthorops.worldbank.org 8
http://ieg.worldbank.org 3
url_unknown 2

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment
  • Focusing only on relief and rehabilitation and not on prevention costs millions of lost lives and livelihoodSchool access without learning hurts millions of children and their success in the marketplaceMisplaced emphasis on liberalization and self-regulation without regulatory frames contributed to global financial crisisRepeating successful water projects in the face of groundwater and coastal zone crises drowns development results
  • Immediate priorities may be inconsistent with goals for the future
  • Coverage: 88 CASCR reviews completed by April 2009.
  • If assumptions are wrong, indicators mislead.Wrong premises can lead to misleading indicators
  • Philippines: microfinance benefited man and richer entrepreneurs more
  • Changed from: What links might boost results?
  • #8: Identifying missed opportunities can shift gear
  • The value added is especially great when evaluations highlight underemphasized but crucial factorsHaving frameworks that promote innovation and risk taking in evaluation and following up on findings have high pay-offs

Overlooked Links in the Results Chain Overlooked Links in the Results Chain Presentation Transcript

  • Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
    Vinod Thomas
    Director-General and Senior Vice President
    XubeiLuo
    Senior Economist
    Independent Evaluation Group
    World Bank Group
    June 2nd, 2011
  • When vital links are overlooked…
    Focusing only on relief and rehabilitation and not on prevention costs millions of lost lives and livelihood
    School access without learning hurts millions of children and their success in the marketplace
    Misplaced emphasis on liberalization and self-regulation without regulatory frameworks contributed to the global financial crisis
    Repeating successful water projects in the face of groundwater and coastal zone crises drowns development results
  • Crucial links in the results chain
    Focus on the right results
    Measure results right
    Use findings creatively to improve results
  • Focus on the right results
  • 1. The urgent can drive out the important
    One-off natural disaster responses limit capacity for reacting in the future
    Almost half of the countries borrowing from the World Bank for disaster response did not mention disaster prevention in their development plans
    Mitigation and prevention can greatly reduce loss of life and damages
    The benefit-cost ratios of prevention range from 1.5 to 5.7
  • 2. Project- and country-level results differ
    Projects and country programs are rated against different objectives
    No fixed relationship between results frameworks at the project- and country-level
    Outcome objectives at the project level are not the same as those at the country level
    Satisfactory project outcomes do not add up to satisfactory country program outcomes
    Chad-Cameroon pipeline met project objectives but not Chad’s country objectives of poverty reduction and capacity building
  • 3. Results are linked across sectors
    Infrastructure
    Better roads contribute to higher school enrollment and better health outcomes
    Rural electrification improves life quality
    Health
    Mother’s education affects her children’s health
    Poor sanitation and hygiene can wipe out benefits of health projects
    Public-private partnership
    Public and private sector inputs combine to improve crop production
  • Measure results right
  • 4. Composite indicators may mislead
    Indicators should be built on sound premises
    Emphasizing costs but not benefits of regulations can lead to the wrong prescriptions for regulatory reform
    Clusters and weights can have a critical effect
    Countries with better governance ratings may not gain from a larger weight on governance in IDA resource allocation
    Adding, rating, or ranking can over simplify reality
    Adding indices of different dimensions can obscure actual results
    Rigor can be compromised by rescaling from cardinal to ordinal values
  • 5. Intermediate outcomes do not ensure desired final results
    Program achievement will be hard to assess if the desired results are not spelled out
    The results chain is complex from school enrollment to learning
    Tanzania: increase in enrollment vs. decline in secondary education learning outcomes
    India: increase in teacher attendance vs. same test scores
    The new WB education strategy rightly focuses on accountability and results
  • 6. Averages can mask targeted outcomes
    Rural electrification
    Bangladesh: the poorest 40% rural households accounted for 17% of total electrified rural households
    Nutrition
    Ethiopia: free food distribution improved children’s weight-for-height z score in richer households but not in poorer households
    Microfinance
    Philippines: microfinance benefited men and richer entrepreneurs more than women and the poor
    Social funds and community-driven development
    Benin: community contribution requirement created hardship for the poor
  • Use findings creatively to improve results
  • 7. Applying lessons for the future
    Repeating successful projects may not be enough in a changing environment
    Water accessibility vs. water scarcity concerns
    China: large-scale irrigation projects
    Road investment vs. environmental concerns
    Bangladesh: three-wheeled taxis
    Innovative strategies are required to meet future needs
    Water: coastal zone management, pollution reduction, and groundwater conservation
    Transport: programmatic, cross-cutting, and multi-sectoral approaches
  • 8. Missed opportunities
    Resolve apparent conflicts among policy objectives
    Energy subsidies
    Protected forest areas
    Overcome institutional constraints and limitations
    MIGA’s Convention on risk insurance
    WBG’s safeguard policies
    Reduce information constraints
    Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • 9. Timing can make a big difference
    Learn faster what works and focus on results at the right time
    Mexico: evaluation of Progresa, Oportunidades
    Philippines: early childhood development program evaluation
    Translate evaluative lessons into development results
    Tailored messages in various formats to reach the audience
    Collaboration with clients and stakeholders
  • Conclusions
    Enormous value can be added when evaluators recognize and emphasize crucial factors
    Pay-offs can be high when evaluation frameworks encourage innovation and risk taking and when findings and recommendations are followed up
  • Thank you!
    Improving Development Results Through Excellence in Evaluation
    www.ieg.worldbankgroup.org