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Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
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Overlooked Links in the Results Chain

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  • Focusing only on relief and rehabilitation and not on prevention costs millions of lost lives and livelihoodSchool access without learning hurts millions of children and their success in the marketplaceMisplaced emphasis on liberalization and self-regulation without regulatory frames contributed to global financial crisisRepeating successful water projects in the face of groundwater and coastal zone crises drowns development results
  • Immediate priorities may be inconsistent with goals for the future
  • Coverage: 88 CASCR reviews completed by April 2009.
  • If assumptions are wrong, indicators mislead.Wrong premises can lead to misleading indicators
  • Philippines: microfinance benefited man and richer entrepreneurs more
  • Changed from: What links might boost results?
  • #8: Identifying missed opportunities can shift gear
  • The value added is especially great when evaluations highlight underemphasized but crucial factorsHaving frameworks that promote innovation and risk taking in evaluation and following up on findings have high pay-offs
  • Transcript

    • 1. Overlooked Links in the Results Chain
      Vinod Thomas
      Director-General and Senior Vice President
      XubeiLuo
      Senior Economist
      Independent Evaluation Group
      World Bank Group
      June 2nd, 2011
    • 2. When vital links are overlooked…
      Focusing only on relief and rehabilitation and not on prevention costs millions of lost lives and livelihood
      School access without learning hurts millions of children and their success in the marketplace
      Misplaced emphasis on liberalization and self-regulation without regulatory frameworks contributed to the global financial crisis
      Repeating successful water projects in the face of groundwater and coastal zone crises drowns development results
    • 3. Crucial links in the results chain
      Focus on the right results
      Measure results right
      Use findings creatively to improve results
    • 4. Focus on the right results
    • 5. 1. The urgent can drive out the important
      One-off natural disaster responses limit capacity for reacting in the future
      Almost half of the countries borrowing from the World Bank for disaster response did not mention disaster prevention in their development plans
      Mitigation and prevention can greatly reduce loss of life and damages
      The benefit-cost ratios of prevention range from 1.5 to 5.7
    • 6. 2. Project- and country-level results differ
      Projects and country programs are rated against different objectives
      No fixed relationship between results frameworks at the project- and country-level
      Outcome objectives at the project level are not the same as those at the country level
      Satisfactory project outcomes do not add up to satisfactory country program outcomes
      Chad-Cameroon pipeline met project objectives but not Chad’s country objectives of poverty reduction and capacity building
    • 7. 3. Results are linked across sectors
      Infrastructure
      Better roads contribute to higher school enrollment and better health outcomes
      Rural electrification improves life quality
      Health
      Mother’s education affects her children’s health
      Poor sanitation and hygiene can wipe out benefits of health projects
      Public-private partnership
      Public and private sector inputs combine to improve crop production
    • 8. Measure results right
    • 9. 4. Composite indicators may mislead
      Indicators should be built on sound premises
      Emphasizing costs but not benefits of regulations can lead to the wrong prescriptions for regulatory reform
      Clusters and weights can have a critical effect
      Countries with better governance ratings may not gain from a larger weight on governance in IDA resource allocation
      Adding, rating, or ranking can over simplify reality
      Adding indices of different dimensions can obscure actual results
      Rigor can be compromised by rescaling from cardinal to ordinal values
    • 10. 5. Intermediate outcomes do not ensure desired final results
      Program achievement will be hard to assess if the desired results are not spelled out
      The results chain is complex from school enrollment to learning
      Tanzania: increase in enrollment vs. decline in secondary education learning outcomes
      India: increase in teacher attendance vs. same test scores
      The new WB education strategy rightly focuses on accountability and results
    • 11. 6. Averages can mask targeted outcomes
      Rural electrification
      Bangladesh: the poorest 40% rural households accounted for 17% of total electrified rural households
      Nutrition
      Ethiopia: free food distribution improved children’s weight-for-height z score in richer households but not in poorer households
      Microfinance
      Philippines: microfinance benefited men and richer entrepreneurs more than women and the poor
      Social funds and community-driven development
      Benin: community contribution requirement created hardship for the poor
    • 12. Use findings creatively to improve results
    • 13. 7. Applying lessons for the future
      Repeating successful projects may not be enough in a changing environment
      Water accessibility vs. water scarcity concerns
      China: large-scale irrigation projects
      Road investment vs. environmental concerns
      Bangladesh: three-wheeled taxis
      Innovative strategies are required to meet future needs
      Water: coastal zone management, pollution reduction, and groundwater conservation
      Transport: programmatic, cross-cutting, and multi-sectoral approaches
    • 14. 8. Missed opportunities
      Resolve apparent conflicts among policy objectives
      Energy subsidies
      Protected forest areas
      Overcome institutional constraints and limitations
      MIGA’s Convention on risk insurance
      WBG’s safeguard policies
      Reduce information constraints
      Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • 15. 9. Timing can make a big difference
      Learn faster what works and focus on results at the right time
      Mexico: evaluation of Progresa, Oportunidades
      Philippines: early childhood development program evaluation
      Translate evaluative lessons into development results
      Tailored messages in various formats to reach the audience
      Collaboration with clients and stakeholders
    • 16. Conclusions
      Enormous value can be added when evaluators recognize and emphasize crucial factors
      Pay-offs can be high when evaluation frameworks encourage innovation and risk taking and when findings and recommendations are followed up
    • 17. Thank you!
      Improving Development Results Through Excellence in Evaluation
      www.ieg.worldbankgroup.org

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