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Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
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Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012

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Developing countries are not yet well adapted even to current climate risks: floods, droughts and storm. Yet those risks are becoming harsher as the world warms, climate extremes become more intense, …

Developing countries are not yet well adapted even to current climate risks: floods, droughts and storm. Yet those risks are becoming harsher as the world warms, climate extremes become more intense, and the oceans rise – the consequences of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

This presentation highlights the findings and lessons learned from the evaluation of World Bank Group Experience in Cliamte Adaptation.

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  • 1. Adapting to Climate Change:Assessing World Bank Group Experience Using monitoring and evaluation to accelerate adaptation and development Kenneth Chomitz, Senior Advisor, IEG kchomitz at worldbank.org ieg.worldbankgroup.org Istanbul, 6 November 2012
  • 2. Outline• In a nutshell: monitoring and evaluation can be a mechanism for accelerating adapation and making it more efficient.• Two kinds of climate risk• Two kinds of (desirable) adaptation, with inspirational examples of monitoring and evaluation• Early lessons from national adaptation projects• Recommendations for monitoring national progress towards resilience.
  • 3. World Bank Group accomplishments againststrategic framework goals: highlights► Accomplished: • Strong increase in attention to climate in CAS/CPS • Upsurge in projects dealing with climate change • Significant analytic work► Not accomplished: • Initiating screening of projects for climate risks • Setting up results framework that is outcome-oriented► Overall: • Significant innovation and investment, but: • Lack of strategic focus • Lost opportunities to learn from projects
  • 4. Three types of adaptation, with examples Net benefits later Net costs laterNet benefits now Resilient adaption to Maladaptation:(Adaptation to current climate variability: Unsustainableclimate variability) • Capacity building extraction of • Hydromet services groundwaterNet costs now Anticipatory No adaptive benefit: adaptation: Unsustainable • Climate-proofing groundwater long-lived extraction for infrastructure uneconomic crops • Coastal zone planning
  • 5. Adapting to climate variability:ex am ples of things w e need to know► Sustainable land management (SLM) • Median reported ERRs of 20% • info on SLM impacts on water availability and sensitivity of household income to droughts► Index insurance • Apparent success in Mongolia, though sustainability in question • Generally low uptake in many pilots, though replication continues • impacts of insurance on welfare; efficacy of selling to households vs to banks.► Disaster risk reduction • Cost-effectiveness and sustainability of soft vs. hard approaches.
  • 6. Measuring project impacts on resilience is useful;measuring expenditure on adaptation is fruitless► Nicaragua Atencion a Crisis Program provided small grants to rural households for business investment► Rigorous randomized control trial evaluation► Household income increased 8% compared to controls AND► Recipients were completely insulated against drought shocks – while control groups suffered► Take-aways: • This doesn’t look like a stereotypical ‘adaptation project’ – but it measurably boosted resilience • No meaningful way to allocate expenditure between ‘poverty reduction’ and ‘adaptation’
  • 7. Real time learning pays off: the Sujala (Karnatakawatershed) project► M&E costs integrated into project► Real-time feedback led to improvements in efficiency and in targeting benefits to women and landless.► Demonstration of 25% income gains, plus environmental gains, led to scale up and replication of project► Bottom line: • Costs are manageable (Bank spends $600m/year on knowledge!) • Techniques are known • Benefits are large
  • 8. Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank Maladaptation: a cautionary tale ► Trees in the drylands: sponges or vampires? • Afforestation in the Loess Plateau: exotic species reduced sedimentation, increase carbon storage – but depleted groundwater. ► Info needs: model and then monitor hydrological and social impacts of land management and forestry interventions
  • 9. The need for anticipatory adaptation TA project in Indian Sundarbans addresses long term spatial development planningNASA image created by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory, using data obtained from the University of Maryland’sGlobal Land Cover Facility
  • 10. Anticipatory climate adaptation and land useplanning: biodiversity► Example: Western Cape Province, South Africa► There are few examples of long-term success in shaping land use patterns► M&E needs: track the success of ongoing efforts --such as India Coastal Zone Mgt, Western Cape, and other projects – in influencing land use patterns.
  • 11. Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank Climate risk management in WBG projects ► Currently, screening for climate risk is ad hoc ► World Bank • FY 11: 23 of 179 projects identify a climate risk; 1 a long-term risk. • Some hydropower projects did climate sensitivity analyses ► IFC: • has only looked at climate risks within the period of its investment exposure • climate risks not identified in hydropower • However, climate risk analysis now enshrined in Performance Standards; • IFC has undertaken insightful analysis of how climate risks affect private sector
  • 12. Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank Climate models: limited applicability to project Divergence of precipitation forecasts for 2030s for 8380 basins 2500 Number of basins 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (max forecast –min forecast)/current mean Source: Data from Strzpek, McCluskey, Boehlert, Jacobsen and Fant 2011
  • 13. Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank Recommendation: climate risk management Develop reference guidelines for incorporating climate risk management into project and program design, appraisal, and implementation. ► Not meant to be rigidly prescriptive ► Guidance on when to worry, what tools to use: ► The challenge is widely shared; Bank Group could convene scientists, industry experts to formulate approaches
  • 14. National-level adaptation projects Caribbean Colombia Kiribati
  • 15. Lessons from national-level projects► A focus on current concerns has been more attractive than anticipatory adaptation to long-term transformational threats.► Adaptation issues are deeply interlinked with development issues.► Projects have tended to spread themselves across too many locations and issues, straining limited capacity.► A strong theory of change is needed to guide actions.► Planning and execution need to be concurrent and iterative.► Coordination is best vested in a powerful central agency.
  • 16. RecommendationsTrack national progress towards resilience► Measures of institutional capacity • Agricultural research and extension service performance • Hydromet system performance and use► Direct measures of household resilience • Sensitivity of household consumption to weather shocks► Biophysical measures of resilience • water consumption • recurrent flooding • Population and infrastructure exposed to storm surges and floods
  • 17. Recommendations: more attention toanticipatory adaptaiton► Promote attention to anticipatory adaptation to long-run climate change. Especially for: • Urban coastal areas • Floodplains • Estuaries • National biodiversity strategies
  • 18. Please visit ieg.worldbankgroup.orgto read the report.Contact: kchomitz at worldbank.org Thank you! Image creative commons license K Chomitz

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