Wind & Solar Power: Renewables for Today & Tomorrow Mayura Botejue BSc(Hons) C.Eng Consultant on Project Development & Renewable Energy The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Pakistan Friday, March 28, 2008

Same old news: The ongoing power crisis! “ The power shortage is likely to cross 3,000MW next year and to increase to about 5,300MW by 2010” “ Power crisis to deepen in coming years: 50pc demand rise in two years likely”

“ The power shortage is likely to cross

3,000MW next year and to increase to

about 5,300MW by 2010”

“ Power crisis to deepen in coming

years: 50pc demand rise in two years

likely”

The capacity deficit!

Conventional options for power generation Hydropower Coal Oil (conventional/diesel) & Gas (indigenous/import) Nuclear These options are relevant, but face major development hurdles!

Hydropower

Coal

Oil (conventional/diesel) & Gas (indigenous/import)

Nuclear

These options are relevant, but face major

development hurdles!

Hydropower Environmental impact Provincial disputes Geological Long development and construction phase Financing Silting in reservoirs Snow melt unpredictability (climate change?)

Environmental impact

Provincial disputes

Geological

Long development and construction phase

Financing

Silting in reservoirs

Snow melt unpredictability (climate change?)

Coal Mining challenges (deep mining technology and lack of expertise) Quality of coal Water requirement Long development and construction phase Financing Environmental impact

Mining challenges (deep mining technology and lack of expertise)

Quality of coal

Water requirement

Long development and construction phase

Financing

Environmental impact

Oil & Gas Indigenous resources depleting (oil & gas reserves) Imported oil based energy expensive and price volatile Iran pipeline - International politics Burden of energy “insecurity”

Indigenous resources depleting (oil & gas reserves)

Imported oil based energy expensive and price volatile

Iran pipeline - International politics

Burden of energy “insecurity”

Nuclear Obstacles due to international concerns Financing Long lead time Project execution delays and cost overruns Cost of waste management Cost of decommissioning

Obstacles due to international concerns

Financing

Long lead time

Project execution delays and cost overruns

Cost of waste management

Cost of decommissioning

Non-conventional options: AE for power generation Waste heat recovery Bio mass Demand side management Infrastructure upgrades Lighting (CFLB) Energy efficiency ‘ Off grid’ wind & solar PV All relevant, but not covered in this presentation!

Waste heat recovery

Bio mass

Demand side management

Infrastructure upgrades

Lighting (CFLB)

Energy efficiency

‘ Off grid’ wind & solar PV

All relevant, but not covered in this presentation!

Wind & Solar for Power Generation “The wave of the future” Positive Attributes: “ Green” & renewable Energy security (no fuel price risk) Optimal fit with peak power demand Global trend due to climate change concerns “ Friendly” financing opportunities growing High skill job creation in new sectors

Positive Attributes:

“ Green” & renewable

Energy security (no fuel price risk)

Optimal fit with peak power demand

Global trend due to climate change concerns

“ Friendly” financing opportunities growing

High skill job creation in new sectors

Wind power negatives Increased wind turbine price due to global demand Not firm capacity (wind variability) COE high due to multiple factors - Year 2008 cost range in Pakistan: 10 - 14 US cents/KWH

Increased wind turbine price due to global demand

Not firm capacity (wind variability)

COE high due to multiple factors

- Year 2008 cost range in Pakistan:

10 - 14 US cents/KWH

“ Grid tied” solar PV negatives Increased price due to global demand Improved technology and increased production yet to show significant cost benefit Not firm capacity (day time only) COE too high for rapid implementation: - Year 2008 cost range in Pakistan: 30 - 40 US cents/KWH

Increased price due to global demand

Improved technology and increased production yet to show significant cost benefit

Not firm capacity (day time only)

COE too high for rapid implementation:

- Year 2008 cost range in Pakistan:

30 - 40 US cents/KWH

Global Wind Power - 2007 94,000 MW in 2007

India & China Wind Power - 2007 2007 - 8,000 MW 2006 - 6,270 MW 2005 - 4,430 MW 2004 - 3,000 MW India Current: Year 2007: 6,050 MW Year 2006: 2,600 MW Projections: Year 2020: 30,000 MW Year 2015: 10,000 MW China

Wind resources in Pakistan Pakistan has a 1,046 Km coastline in the South Average wind speed more than 7 m/s in Gharo Wind Corridor Estimated wind potential more than 50,000 MW Other sites in Balochistan and Northern Areas being identified From AEDB Gharo Wind Corridor Rajasthan: 970 MW Gujarat: 700 MW 2007

Pakistan has a 1,046 Km coastline in the South

Average wind speed more than 7 m/s in Gharo Wind Corridor

Estimated wind potential more than 50,000 MW

Other sites in Balochistan and Northern Areas being identified

From AEDB

The Gharo effect at sea The shallow ocean waters and relatively calm conditions (as compared to the North Sea) makes the potential for harnessing offshore wind energy very promising!

Optimal match with peak summer demand Summer season April - August

Wind power development goal 9,700 MW by year 2030 as directed by President and Prime Minister AEDB goal - Installation of 100 MW wind farm by June 2006 near Karachi and 700 MW by 2010. AEDB 2006 * Targets are slipping!

Wind power: A missed opportunity Reasons for current predicament: Poor strategic decision making - Pakistan over 20 years behind India State bureaucrats familiar with large thermal and hydropower projects failed to appreciate the technological trends and potential of wind energy Uncomfortable with input of unregulated energy Will the same lack of vision prevail with Solar PV?

Reasons for current predicament:

Poor strategic decision making - Pakistan over 20 years

behind India

State bureaucrats familiar with large thermal and hydropower projects failed to appreciate the technological trends and potential of wind energy

Uncomfortable with input of unregulated energy

Will the same lack of vision prevail with Solar PV?

Wind projects: Reasons for development delay Lack of Long Term Wind Data Global Demand for Wind Turbines: - High cost of equipment - Long delivery times - Lack of international contractor interest - Pioneering projects in tidal zone (high civil costs)

Lack of Long Term Wind Data

Global Demand for Wind Turbines:

- High cost of equipment

- Long delivery times

- Lack of international contractor interest

- Pioneering projects in tidal zone (high civil costs)

“ Bureaucratic Resistance” Technocrats and planners lack of familiarity with wind power and its integration to the grid. Attitudes based on inaccurate and/or outdated information. Heavy bias against wind due to its variability - the “unregulated supply” is considered problematic!

Technocrats and planners lack of familiarity with wind power and its integration to the grid.

Attitudes based on inaccurate and/or outdated information.

Heavy bias against wind due to its variability - the “unregulated supply” is considered problematic!

Expressing technical preferences Direct drive vs geared Voltage regulation & reactive power “ Black start” capability Island operation Why express these requirements on pioneering wind projects?

Direct drive vs geared

Voltage regulation & reactive power

“ Black start” capability

Island operation

Why express these requirements on

pioneering wind projects?

World Solar PV 2007 The PV industry generated $17.2 billion in global revenues in 2007 Germany - 1,328 MW Spain - 640 MW USA - 220 MW Japan plans to use solar PV to meet 10% of its peak demand by 2030 (20+ GW?)

The PV industry

generated $17.2 billion

in global revenues in

2007

Germany - 1,328 MW

Spain - 640 MW

USA - 220 MW

Grid tied solar PV examples US “sun belt” states incentives and regulations for new homes to include roof top solar PV for operating on net metering basis. Municipal headquarters in San Francisco has a 100 KW solar PV system installed. Google has installed a total of 1.6 megawatts (MW) onsite at its headquarters in California (more than 9,000 solar panels on the tops of roofs and parking lots). Europe implementing large scale solar PV systems on commercial buildings.

US “sun belt” states incentives and regulations for new homes to include roof top solar PV for operating on net metering basis.

Municipal headquarters in San Francisco has a 100 KW solar PV system installed.

Google has installed a total of 1.6 megawatts (MW) onsite at its headquarters in California (more than 9,000 solar panels on the tops of roofs and parking lots).

Europe implementing large scale solar PV systems on commercial buildings.

Solar PV in India & China India has an installed capacity of 3 MW with total of 32 grid interactive solar PV power plants. February 28, 2008 “ China’s installed capacity of solar PV will reach 100GW by 2030, generating 130 TWh electricity annually, which is equal to electricity generation of more than 30 large-scaled coal power stations” September 19, 2007 China Solar PV Report - China Renewable Energy Industry Association

India has an installed capacity of 3 MW with total

of 32 grid interactive solar PV power plants.

February 28, 2008

“ China’s installed capacity of solar PV will reach

100GW by 2030, generating 130 TWh electricity

annually, which is equal to electricity generation of

more than 30 large-scaled coal power stations”

September 19, 2007

China Solar PV Report - China Renewable Energy Industry Association

Thailand: “Key player in solar PV development” With the rising price of oil and other conventional fuels, the government is turning to solar and other forms of AE to meet the growing power demand: Demand for electricity expected to double over the next 15 years - increasing approx. 13%/yr. From 21,000 MW in 2005 & estimated to top 50,000 MW by 2020. Thailand target: 5,000 MW of solar PV by 2020 (10% of peak supply)

With the rising price of oil and other conventional

fuels, the government is turning to solar and other

forms of AE to meet the growing power demand:

Demand for electricity expected to double over the next 15 years - increasing approx. 13%/yr.

From 21,000 MW in 2005 & estimated to top 50,000 MW by 2020.

Thailand target: 5,000 MW of solar PV by 2020

(10% of peak supply)

Benefits of grid tied solar PV: The mini IPP Power produced at source with net metering (commercial & residential buildings) No transmission and distribution losses Relief to overloaded distribution infrastructure Peaking power (summer - daytime) Growth of new business opportunities Green power source

Power produced at source with net metering (commercial & residential buildings)

No transmission and distribution losses

Relief to overloaded distribution infrastructure

Peaking power (summer - daytime)

Growth of new business opportunities

Green power source

Proposed ‘on grid’ solar PV pilot schemes Large scale (10-100KW) - R&D facilities, universities, m ilitary bases - Companies (enhance PR image: “green”) - Government buildings, large hotels - Hospitals Medium scale (1-10KW) - “Affluent” homes - Schools Net metering rather than tariff!

Large scale (10-100KW)

- R&D facilities, universities, m ilitary bases

- Companies (enhance PR image: “green”)

- Government buildings, large hotels

- Hospitals

Medium scale (1-10KW)

- “Affluent” homes

- Schools

Net metering rather than tariff!

The perils of not going “GREEN” A Carbon Tax on exports? “ We have to understand that every product we buy from China is made with dirty fuel. I think that in the future what we will do is treat those countries which produce goods without regard for the environment the same way as we deal with countries that violate human rights and have sweatshops. As the ultimate consumer, America has a lot of power here” Arnold Schwarzenegger - Governor of California May 6, 2007

“ We have to understand that every product we buy

from China is made with dirty fuel. I think that in

the future what we will do is treat those countries

which produce goods without regard for the

environment the same way as we deal with

countries that violate human rights and have

sweatshops. As the ultimate consumer, America has

a lot of power here”

Arnold Schwarzenegger - Governor of California

May 6, 2007

Thank You!