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Looming Power Crisis

Looming Power Crisis

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Presentation By N.A. Zuberi Presentation By N.A. Zuberi Presentation Transcript

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  • G O P Ministry of Water and Power Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission IPPs WAPDA PEPCO CHASHNUPP PPIB KESC SPPs/CPPs NEPRA PRIVATE SECTOR KANUPP PAKISTAN’S POWER SECTOR IN A SNAPSHOT
  • IPPs 7564 MW Public Sector Thermal 4885 MW Public Sector Hydel 6489 MW Nuclear 462 MW POWER SECTOR - TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
      • MW %
    • Public Sector
    • WAPDA 11374 59
    • PAEC 462 2
    • Sub-Total 11836 61
    • Private Sector
    • IPPs 5808 30
    • KESC 1756 9
    • Sub-Total 7564 39
    • G. Total 19400 100
  • Oil 6497 MW (34%) Hydel 6489 MW (33%) Nuclear 452 MW (2%) Coal 150 MW (1%) Total 19403 MW Gas 5815 MW (30%) HYDEL THERMAL MIX – YEAR 2006
  • MARDAN WARSAK BANNU DAUDKHEL BURHAN NEW RAWAT I.S.P.R MANGLA TARBELA GAKHAR SAHOWALA K.S.KAKU RAVI JAPAN KEL N.ABAD SABA YOUSAF WALA VEHARI KAPCO ROUSCH UCH AES N.G.P.S M.GARH GUDDU LIBERTY DADU HALARD LAKHRA JAMSHORO KOTRI HUBCO KDA-33 (KESC) 500 kV Grid Station 220 kV Grid Station 500/220 kV Grid Station Hydel Power Station Thermal Power Station IPPs at 220, 500 kV IPPs at 132 kV 500 kV T/LINE 220 kV T/LINE (240) (3408) (1000) (107) (120) (195) (1350) (310) CHEP (184) (355) (1348) (695) HCPC (126) (548) (1655) (212) (150) (850) (174) (1200) GAZI BAROTHA (1450) CHASNUPP GATTI BUND RD: M.GARH GUDDU JAMSHORO PAKISTAN TAPAL G.AHMAD
  • PPIB – MANDATE
      • One-Window facility to promote new private sector
      • participation in power generation.
      • PPIB Board consists of 16 members, 7 members are from private sector
      • Handling IA, PPA and FSA executed by IPPs with GOP and its
      • entities
      • Assist IPPs in obtaining consents / licenses
      • Provide technical, financial and legal support to Provinces / AJK
  • RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTRACTING & FACILITATING PRIVATE POWER MoP&NR Fuel Supplier PPIB MoW&P The Policy Maker NEPRA The Regulator NTDC The Power Purchaser System Planer Lenders/ Investors IPPs IA PPA Direct Agreements Guarantee
    • Expeditiously and efficiently implemented 1994 Power Policy.
    • Introduced World leading energy players to Pakistan’s private power sector - attracted US $ 8 billion of foreign investment.
    • An Institution staffed with experienced professionals.
    • Successfully negotiated, executed and administered agreements with IPPs.
    • Resolved various contentious IPP issues with various Government agencies.
    PPIB’s TRACK RECORD
  • PRIVATE POWER POLICIES
  • COMMISSIONED IPPs MULTAN LAHORE MULTAN ISLAMABAD BALOCHISTAN KARACHI Tot. Capacity: 3000 MW Tot. Inv: US$3.5 Billion Dec 1999 109 Saba Power Company, Lahore Jul 1999 112 Southern Electric Co., Lahore Jun 1997 120 Kohinoor Energy Ltd., Lahore Jan 2000 107 Japan Power Generation, Lahore Dec 1999 358 Rousch Power, Multan Oct 1999 144 Fauji Kabirwala Co., Multan Feb 1998 337 AES Pak Gen, Multan Nov 1997 337 AES Lalpir Ltd., Multan Jun 2001 13 Altern Energy Ltd Sep 1999 123 Habibullah Coastal, Quetta Oct 2000 525 Uch Power Ltd., Uch Nov 1996 125 Gul Ahmed Energy Ltd., KHI Jun 1997 119.5 Tapal Energy Ltd., KHI Jun 2001 211.5 Liberty Power Ltd., Dharki
    • Encourages indigenous resources i.e. hydel, coal, gas
    • PPIB provides one-window support for projects above 50 MW
    • Two part structure for purchase price
      • Capacity payment to cover fixed costs
      • Energy payment to cover variable cost
    • Indexation
      • Exchange rate fluctuation for foreign component
      • Pakistan WPI inflation for local component
    • Only 5% custom duty on import of plant & equipment
    • Government guarantee performance of power purchase and provinces
    • Standardized Security Package to eliminate protracted negotiation.
    POWER GENERATION POLICY 2002
  • SALIENT FEATURES OF NEW DOCUMENTS
      • Under new Security Package, there is a better balance of risk and reward.
      • Compensation in event of buy out is 4 years of profits compared to 5 years for events of default.
      • Governing law is Pakistan instead of English
      • Higher plant availability of 90% compared with 86% under 1994 Power Policy, for Gas based plants and 88% for oil based.
      • Payment based on actual capacity vs declared capacity
      • Higher thermal efficiencies
        • For Gas 50% Vs 38%
        • For Oil 45% Vs 38%
  • POLICY IN VOGUE POLICY FOR POWER GENERATION 2002
    • Since October 2002 PPIB is implementing Policy 2002 to the extent of only Private Sector, it is the special and unique feature of Policy 2002 that it is also applicable to public & private – public generation projects.
    • Policy 2002 provides for three different generation plans
      • Short term plan (5 years);
      • Medium term plant 15 years) and
      • Long term (next 5 years)
    • Under the three plans first private thermal project in WAPDA system is visualized in December 2010 . All earlier generation visualized in Policy 2002 is through hydel projects such as Allai Khawar, Duber Khawar, Khan Khawar (in year 2006)
  • HURDLES IN IMPLEMENTATION OF POLICY 2002
    • Hangover of Surplus Power
    • Negative perceptions about IPPs and Lukewarm support from sister organizations
    • Unavailability of Gas: Policy 2002 structure for thermal mainly relies on Gas availability.
    • Boom in International Power market and late delivery dates of engines.
    • Induction of tedious regulatory processes.
    • Absence of reliable demand forecast.
    • Pre-Qualification
    • Technical Strength
    • Financial Strength
    • Timeline:
    • 1-month including approval of Board
    • Feasibility Study
    • Monitoring & evaluation by POE
    • Timeline: Depending on sponsors, Max: 6-m for thermal, 18 -36 months for Hydel & Coal projects
    POLICY FOR POWER GENERATION, 2002 THE PROCESS For Unsolicited Proposals LOI NEPRA Tariff Determination
    • Agreements
    • IA
    • PPA
    • GSA/ FSA
    Financial Close LOS COD
  • REVISED SCHEDULE FOR “RAW SITE UNSOLICITED” PROPOSALS Processing time for Issuance of LOI reduced by 58% 75 180 Sub-Total Phase-I Appropriate time depending upon nature of project will be provided to carry out Feasibility Study 5
    • Issuance of LOI by PPIB
    D 30
    • Issuance of LOI by PPIB
    D 10
    • Posting of bank guarantee by Sponsors @ US$ 1000 per MW
    C 30
    • Posting of bank guarantee by Sponsors @ US$ 1000 per MW
    C 60
    • Evaluation of proposal by PPIB assisted by MoW&P/WAPDA/KESC
    • Clearance of Location from NTDC
    • Clearance from Fuel Supplier
    • Clearance from Provincial/AJK Govt. for hydel & coal projects
    • Approval of PPIB Board
    • Approval of Board Minutes
    B 120
    • Approval by Secretary’s Committee
    • Registration & Issuance of Pre-Qualification Documents (PQD)
    • Submission of PQD
    • Approval by Secretary's Committee
    • Approval by the Board
    • Approval of Board Minutes
    B 0
    • Submission of detailed proposal including pre-qualification details
    A 0
    • Expression of Interest
    A PHASE - I Typical Time (Days) Suggested Activities Sr. Typical Time (Days) Existing Activities Sr.
  • REVISED SCHEDULE FOR “RAW SITE UNSOLICITED” PROPOSALS (CONTD..) Total Processing Time for Issuance of LOS reduced by 65 % 185 525 Grand Total (Phase I & II) 5
    • Issuance of LOS by PPIB
    D 30
    • Issuance of LOS by PPIB
    E PHASE - II Typical Time (Days) Suggested Activities Sr. Typical Time (Days) Existing Activities Sr. 110 345 Sub-Total Phase II 15
    • Submission of Performance Guarantee @ US$ 5000/MW by Sponsors, if NEPRA-determined tariff is accepted by the sponsors
    C 30
    • Submission of Performance Guarantee @US$ 5000/MW by Sponsors in favour of PPIB, if tariff is approved
    D 15
    • Submission of PPIB of approved tariff
    C 60
    • Tariff Determination by NEPRA and approval of PPIB Board
    B 180
    • NEPRA’s tariff approval
    B 30
    • Tariff Negotiations between Sponsors & power purchaser
    A 90
    • Tariff Negotiations between Sponsors & power purchaser
    A
  • REVISED SCHEDULE FOR “SOLICITED” PROPOSALS Processing Time for Issuance of RFP reduced by 59% 90 Sub-Total 220 Sub-Total 15
    • Issuance of Request for Proposal (RFP) to the bidders
    D 40
    • PPIB’s invitation for bids & collection of bidding documents by pre-qualified bidders
    D 15
    • Approval of PPIB Board & notification to pre-qualified bidders
    C 60
    • Evaluation of pre-qualification docs. & notification to pre-qualified bidders
    C 30
    • Evaluation of pre-qualification docs.
    B 60
    • Submission of pre-qualification documents
    B 30
    • Submission of PQD by the sponsors in response to advertisement
    A 60
    • Invite Sponsors for registration and collection of pre-qualification documents
    A Typical Time (days) Suggested Activities Sr. Typical Time (days) Existing Activities Sr.
  • REVISED SCHEDULE FOR “SOLICITED” PROPOSALS (CONTD..) 306 490 Grand Total 216 270 Total Total Processing Time for Issuance of LOS reduced by 38% 5
    • Issuance of LOS by PPIB
    H 30
    • Issuance of LOS by PPIB
    H 10
    • Posting of Performance Guarantee by Sponsors @ US$ 5000 per MW
    G 30
    • Posting of Performance Guarantee by Sponsors @ US$ 5000 per MW
    G 60 21
    • Bid evaluation, selection of preferred bidder, approval of PPIB Board
    • Approval by NEPRA and ECC
    F 90
    • Evaluation of bids, NEPRA’s tariff approval & notify successful bidder
    F 120
    • Pre-qualified bidders to submit bid including minimum functional specification and financial (tariff) bid
    E 120
    • Submission of bids to PPIB together with bid bond and evaluation fee
    E Typical Time (days) Suggested Activities Sr. Typical Time (days) Existing Activities Sr.
  • PROGRESS OF PPIB PURSUANT TO POLICY 2002
    • Despite all hurdles and the fact that first ever private thermal project in WAPDA system was visualized in December 2010, PPIB assessing the trend has pulled back the CODs and first thermal project will be commissioned (Inshallah) in December 2008.
    • PPIB is currently trying to negotiate with sponsors to provide electricity in Simple Cycle mode before summer of 2008.
    • PPIB is currently processing 56 new projects (14766 MW) out of which 35 no. (8955 MW) have been issued LOIs.
  • 56 13457 14766 2550 1174 1800 4353 4889 TOTAL 2 1504 1203 - - - - 1203 2016 7 2165 1732 - - - - 1732 2015 - - - - - - - - 2014 23 348 278 - - - - 278 2013 10 3590 3942 2550 - - - 1392 2012 3 355 284 - - - - 284 2011 11 2452 3269 - 644 925 1700 - 2010 13 2033 2710 - 530 450 1730 - 2009 8 1011 1348 - - 425 923 - 2008 No. of Projects Investments US$ Million Total (MW) Coal Dedicated Gas Pipeline Quality Gas / Oil Oil Hydel Expected Year of Completion SUMMARY OF POWER PROJECTS UNDER PROCESS
  • 35 8854 8955 2550 664 1200 1584 2957 TOTAL 1 819 655 - - - - 655 2016 5 2010 1608 - - - - 1608 2015 - - - - - - - - 2014 2 348 278 - - - 278 2013 7 2767 2766 2550 - - - 216 2012 2 250 200 - - - 200 2011 6 982 1209 - 134 525 550 - 2010 7 1053 1405 530 450 425 - 2009 5 625 834 - - 225 609 - 2008 No. of Projects Investments US$ Million Total (MW) Coal Dedicated Gas Pipeline Quality Gas / Oil Oil Hydel Expected Year of Completion SUMMARY OF POWER PROJECTS WITH LOIs ISSUED
  • 225 MW Orient Power, Balloki (Dec-08) 175 MW Faruji Mari, Daharki (Apr-09) 134 MW Star Power, Daharki (Feb-10) 150 MW Engro Power, Daharki (Feb-09) 225 MW, Muridke Power Project (Mar-09) 225 MW Bhikki Power Project (April-09) 225 MW Atlas Power Limited 130 MW Taiyo Hills Project 225 MW Sahiwal Power Project 150 MW Attock Gen, Rawalpindi (Aug-08) 150 MW Western Electric Project 150 MW InterGen Power, Kohat (Jun-10) 150 MW Fauji Korangi Power Project 205 MW Green Power, Dadu (May-10) 150 Habib Ullah Energy Project (Ghotki) 200 MW WARDA Power, Lahore (Mar-09) 179 MW Gulf Power, Sahuwala (Oct-08) 400 MW KAPCO Expansion, Kot Addu 200 Dadabhoy Coal Porject (Jherrukh) 200 Al-Fateh Coal Project (Sindh) 1000 MW AES Imported Coal Project 1000 MW Mitsui Imported Coal Project 150 MW Eastern Power, Pasrur (Oct-08)
  • LOCATION OF Hydropower Under PPIB
    • Shushgai Zhendoli (ADB )
    • Shogo Sin (ADB Loan)
    • Matiltan
    • Gabral Kalam
    • Kalam Asrit
    • Asrit Kedam
    • Madyan
    • Sharmai
    • Munda
    • Suki Kinari
    • Tarbela 4 th Ext.
    Behrain Kaghan Dasu Darora Mansehra Bagh Palandry Kalam Chitral
    • Sehra
    • Kotli
    • Gulpur
    • Rajdhani
    Azad Patan Harighel Chakoti Hatian
    • Patrind
    • Kerot
    • New Bong
    Kaigah
    • Gas Based Projects
    • Gas allocated to Power Sector would be used from June 2008. PPIB has processed a Fast Track 200 MW project on the same gas before its use by other IPPs
    • PPIB is trying to convince the IPPs to agree on simple cycle operations before their actual commissioning in Combined Cycle mode.
    • Fast Track Projects (based on reciprocating engines technology to be operated on RFO)
    • No Pre-qualification, No LOI, No Feasibility Study
    • (a) Projects by Leading Business Houses (LBHs):
    • Four projects having combined capacity of 825 MW are in progress, of which Letter of Support (LOS) has already been issued to Atlas Group for its 225 MW power project at Lahore-Sheikhupura Road.
    • (b) Other Fast Track Projects
    • Besides, PPIB is also processing six other fast track projects (998 MW), Out of which PPIB has issued LOS to three projects of 456 MW.
    • C. Expansion of Existing IPPs (based on reciprocating engines technology to be operated on RFO)
    • Three projects having combined capacity of 405 MW are in progress.
    Short Term Initiatives Under Taken by PPIB
    • A. Hydel Projects
    • Earlier hydropower projects processed on negotiation without any competition.
    • Feasibility study for 2 Hydropower Projects, with cumulative capacity of 229 MW selected for ICB.
    • Bidding of these projects expected in 2008.
    • B. Imported Coal
    • Initiated 1000-1200 MW imported coal based project to improve energy security through diversity of fuel.
    • C. International Competitive Bidding (ICB)
    • Earlier power procurement was on negotiated basis without any competition.
    • Moved to ICB for three projects Uch-II (450 MW), Faisalabad (400 MW) & Chichoki Mallian (350 MW).
    Long Term Initiatives Under Taken by PPIB
  • Present Picture of Power Sector
    • No word except CRISIS can depict the true picture of Pakistan’s Power Sector.
    • The crisis mainly resulted from :
      • More than the anticipated growth in power sector (7 v/s 22% in some areas in country)
      • Hydel factor (lesser availability than installed capacity)
      • Difficulty in implementing Fast Track initiatives due to unavailability of
      • (i) Reciprocating Equipment suitable for Furnace Oil operations
      • (ii) Gas, suitable for Gas turbines.
  • Future Picture of Power Sector
    • Although new IPPs with start to come on time from Dec-2008, the future projection till year 2009 are not very bright.
    • From June 2010 the future picture of power sector presents a promising and rosy picture (we have already discussed PPIB’s portfolio)
  • What can be done
    • Encouraging concept of community Power Projects through used equipment which is readily and cheaply available.
    • Tapping Captive Generation.
    • Rental Projects in WAPDA / KESC System.
    • Soliciting capacity for 5 years from used equipment through bidding (Bids to be decided on tariff cum COD dates)
  • What can be done
    • Rehabilitation of derated capacity in WAPDA/KESC plants (700 MW)
    • Reduction in system losses
    • Removal of Transmission and Distibution Bottlenecks
    • Timely completion of planned projects in WAPDA and KESC system.
    • Last but not the least through SENSIBLE demand side management (involving communities / chambers)
  •  
  •   3265 4353 Sub Total (Oil) Jun-10 600 800 Bhikki, Punjab Shaheen (SBIG) Power Project 18 Jun-10 263 350 Chichoki Mallian Chichoki Mallian ICB project 17 Jun-10 113 150 Kohat, NWFP InterGen Power Project 16 Mar-10 300 400 Kot Addu KAPCO-Expansion Project 15 Mar-09 150 200 Narowal HUBCO-Narowal Project 14 Mar-09 75 100 Faisalabad Tecna (Phase 2) 13 Mar-09 150 200 Gujranwala Gujranwala (Gulistan) Project 12 Mar-09 169 225 Sheikhupura Sheikhupura (Atlas) Power Project 11 Mar-09 150 200 Faisalabad Nishat Power Project 10 Mar-09 150 200 Lahore Nishat Chunian Power Project 9 Mar-09 304 405 Near Lahore Capacity Expansion from Existing IPPs 8 Mar-09 150 200 Near Lahore Warda Power Project 7 Oct-08 88 117 Lahore Amazon Power Project 6 Oct-08 150 200 Lahore Associated Technologies Project 5 Oct-08 113 150 Pasrur Eastern Power (EPCO) 4 Oct-08 95 127 Emenanabad Taiyo Hills 3 Oct-08 134 179 Sahuwala Gulf Power 2 Aug-08 113 150 Rawalpindi AttockGen Power Project 1 OIL Expected COD Investments (US$ Million) Capacity (MW) Location Project Sr. No. FUELWISE DETAILS OF PROJECTS
  •   881 1174 Sub Total (Dedicated Gas Field) Nov-10 338 450 Kashmore Uch II ICB Project 32 Jun-10 45 60 Kandra near Sukkur Kandra ICB Project 31 Feb-10 101 134 Daharki Star Thermal Power Project 30 Dec-09 113 150 Daharki Engro Power Project 29 Jun-09 154 205 Dadu, Sindh Green Power Project (Phase 1) 28 Apr-09 131 175 Daharki Fauji Mari Power Project 27 DEDICATED GAS FIELDS 1350 1800 Sub Total (Pipeline Quality Gas/Dual-Fuel) Dec-10 113 150 Dadu, Sindh Western Electric Power Project 26 Jun-10 300 400 Faisalabad Faisalabad ICB Project 25 May-10 113 150 Dadu, Sindh Fauji Korangi Power Project 24 Feb-10 169 225 Sahiwal Sahiwal (Saif) Power Project 23 Apr-09 169 225 Bhikki, Punjab Bhikki Power Project 22 Mar-09 169 225 Muridke Muridke (Sapphire) Power project 21 Dec-08 169 225 Balloki Orient Power Project 20 Jun-08 150 200 Faisalabad Tecna (Phase 1) 19 PIPELINE QUALITY GAS/DUAL-FUEL
  •   5411 4889 Sub Total (Hydel) Apr-16 819 655 NWFP Suki Kinari Hydropower Project 51 Jan-16 685 548 NWFP Kaigah Hydel Project 50 Mar-15 825 660 NWFP Munda Hydropower Project 49 Jan-15 81 65 AJK Sehra Hydel Project 48 Jan-15 174 139 AJK Chakothi-Hattian Project 47 Jan-15 246 197 NWFP Kalam-Asrit Hydel Project 46 Jan-15 261 209 NWFP Asrit-Kedam Hydel Project 45 Jan-15 278 222 AJK Azad Patan Hydel Project 44 Jan-15 300 240 AJK Karot Hydel Project 43 Dec-13 185 148 NWFP Madyan Hydropower Project 42 Jan-13 163 130 NWFP/ AJK Patrind Hydropower Project 41 Dec-12 144 115 NWFP Sharmai Hydropower Project 40 Jun-12 126 101 Swat, NWFP Gabral-Kalam Hydropower Project 39 Jan-12 500 960 NWFP Tarbela 4 th Extension 38 Nov-11 125 100 Gulpur, AJK Gulpur Hydro Power project 37 Jun-11 125 100 Kotli, AJK Kotli Hydel Project 36 Jan-11 105 84 Dir, NWFP Matiltan Hydro Power Project 35 Sep-10 165 132 Mangla, AJK Rajdhani Hydro Power Project 34 Aug-10 105 84 Near Mangla, AJK New Bong Escape Hydel Project 33 HYDEL
  • 13457 14766 GRAND TOTAL   2550 2550 Sub Total (Coal) Jun-12 1000 1000 Near Karachi Mitsui Imported Coal Project 57 Jun-12 1000 1000 Near Karachi AES Imported Coal Project 56 Jun-12 200 200 Lakhra, Sindh Lakhra Coal Project by Fateh Group 55 Jun-12 200 200 Jherruk-Sonda, Sindh Dadabhoy Coal Project 54 Jun-12 150 150 Ghotki, Sindh Habibullah Energy Coal Project 53 COAL