Meeting the Energy Needs of a Growing Economy Mukhtar Ahmed Advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan on Energy Government of Pakistan The Institution of Electrical and Electronic Engineers Pakistan June 15, 2007
Total Primary Energy Supply and GDP Per Capita, 2003 Source: World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development, The World Bank, Washington, DC: 2006.
Primary Energy Supply and GDP Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook Pakistan Economic Survey
Electricity Supply and Demand Source: Power System Statistics, WAPDA, for power demand in WAPDA and KESC systems Power Generation Planning by WAPDA, May, 2007. KESC submission to Planning Commission, February, 2007 Note: 20% reserve margin accounts for forced outages, variations in hydel availability, and variations in weather, and 1% loss of load probability.
Power Surplus/Deficit Source: Power System Statistics, WAPDA, for historical power demand in WAPDA and KESC systems Power Generation Planning by WAPDA, May, 2007. KESC submission to Planning Commission, February, 2007
Projected Indigenous Energy Supply and Deficit Million TOE Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook: 2006 Medium-Term Development Framework: 2005-10, Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, adjusted to GDP growth rate of 6.5% and updated for power generation plans of WAPDA as of March 2006. 122 50 17 Deficit 75 61 41 Total Indigenous Supply 13 5 2 Coal 62% 45% 29% Deficit Energy Requirement 198 110 58 Total Energy Requirement 12 3 1 Renewables and Nuclear 29 13 7 Hydel 19 34 29 Gas 2 4 3 Oil FY25 FY15 FY06
Forecast of Indigenous Energy Deficit 2000-2025 Source: Medium-Term Development Framework: 2005-10, Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, adjusted to GDP growth rate of 6.5% and updated for power generation plans of WAPDA as of March 2006.
Per Capita Energy Consumption Source: Energy Information Administration, 2003 Note: 1) US per capita energy consumption is 340 million Btu 2) The structure of a country’s economy impacts on its per capita energy consumption.
Energy Threshold for Sustainable Human Development Pakistan 469 kWh Source: Human Development Report, 2006, UNDP 37% 20% 43% 57% 43% >4,000 kWh/Capita <1,000 kWh/Capita * Country-wise average per capita electricity consumption World Population* Developing Asia Population* >1,000 kWh/Capita <4,000 kWh/Capita <1,000 kWh/Capita 57% 43% 37% 20% 43%
Indigenous Energy Resource Potential Hydel Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook, 2006, Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan. Pakistan Hydel Power Potential, Private Power and Infrastructure Board. 3,303 MT 33 tcf @ 900 btu/scf 324 Million bbl Proven Reserves 678 4.87 MT Coal 23 1.4 tcf @ 900 btu/scf Gas 13 24 Million bbl Oil Reserves to Production Ratio Annual Production Fuel 41,700 MW Potential 16% Potential Realized 6,600 MW Installed
Import of electricity from CAS: Technical, economic, and commercial studies are being commissioned by the World Bank and ADB to develop electricity trading arrangements for a high-voltage power transmission line from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan
Source: 1. Power Generation Planning by WAPDA, May and March 2007, KESC submission to Planning Commission in Feb, 2007 300 MW Nuclear 28,700 MW Total 13,600 MW Thermal 14,800 MW Hydel
Indicative Investment Requirements for the Energy Sector US$ Million
Share of private sector in investments is estimated at over 50%
An additional investment of US$ 12 billion for development of mining, power generation, and coal to liquids is estimated if development of Thar coal proves to be feasible
Source and Basis: WAPDA and MTDF. Current market rates for cost of generation capacity assumed
Discovery rate to maintain current indigenous production levels assumed