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Presentation By Mukhtar Ahmed

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Meeting the Energy Needs of a Growing Economy

Meeting the Energy Needs of a Growing Economy

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  • GENERIC MESSAGE

    Congratulations for your work ! Thank you for sharing....

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    PS : Feel free to visit my 34 groups and you join us. (If not already). I'm sure some will grab your interest... You're welcome. If you wish, you can view a list of all our groups here: http://www.slideshare.net/Bern7/list-of-all-our-groups-slideshare
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    Have a great day ! Greetings from France. With friendship. Thank you ... Bernard
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    • 1. Meeting the Energy Needs of a Growing Economy Mukhtar Ahmed Advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan on Energy Government of Pakistan The Institution of Electrical and Electronic Engineers Pakistan June 15, 2007
    • 2. Contents
      • Pakistan energy sector: The historical context
      • Emerging energy requirements
      • Policy response and action plan
    • 3. Total Primary Energy Supply and GDP Per Capita, 2003 Source: World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development, The World Bank, Washington, DC: 2006.
    • 4. Primary Energy Supply and GDP Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook Pakistan Economic Survey
    • 5. Electricity Supply and Demand Source: Power System Statistics, WAPDA, for power demand in WAPDA and KESC systems Power Generation Planning by WAPDA, May, 2007. KESC submission to Planning Commission, February, 2007 Note: 20% reserve margin accounts for forced outages, variations in hydel availability, and variations in weather, and 1% loss of load probability.
    • 6. Power Surplus/Deficit Source: Power System Statistics, WAPDA, for historical power demand in WAPDA and KESC systems Power Generation Planning by WAPDA, May, 2007. KESC submission to Planning Commission, February, 2007
    • 7. Projected Indigenous Energy Supply and Deficit Million TOE Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook: 2006 Medium-Term Development Framework: 2005-10, Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, adjusted to GDP growth rate of 6.5% and updated for power generation plans of WAPDA as of March 2006. 122 50 17 Deficit 75 61 41 Total Indigenous Supply 13 5 2 Coal 62% 45% 29% Deficit Energy Requirement 198 110 58 Total Energy Requirement 12 3 1 Renewables and Nuclear 29 13 7 Hydel 19 34 29 Gas 2 4 3 Oil FY25 FY15 FY06
    • 8. Forecast of Indigenous Energy Deficit 2000-2025 Source: Medium-Term Development Framework: 2005-10, Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, adjusted to GDP growth rate of 6.5% and updated for power generation plans of WAPDA as of March 2006.
    • 9. Per Capita Energy Consumption Source: Energy Information Administration, 2003 Note: 1) US per capita energy consumption is 340 million Btu 2) The structure of a country’s economy impacts on its per capita energy consumption.
    • 10. Energy Threshold for Sustainable Human Development Pakistan 469 kWh Source: Human Development Report, 2006, UNDP 37% 20% 43% 57% 43% >4,000 kWh/Capita <1,000 kWh/Capita * Country-wise average per capita electricity consumption World Population* Developing Asia Population* >1,000 kWh/Capita <4,000 kWh/Capita <1,000 kWh/Capita 57% 43% 37% 20% 43%
    • 11. Indigenous Energy Resource Potential Hydel Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook, 2006, Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan. Pakistan Hydel Power Potential, Private Power and Infrastructure Board. 3,303 MT 33 tcf @ 900 btu/scf 324 Million bbl Proven Reserves 678 4.87 MT Coal 23 1.4 tcf @ 900 btu/scf Gas 13 24 Million bbl Oil Reserves to Production Ratio Annual Production Fuel 41,700 MW Potential 16% Potential Realized 6,600 MW Installed
    • 12. Energy Sector Policy Objectives
      • Adequate, affordable, and environment-friendly energy supply to meet the needs of an expanding economy
      • Security of energy supply
        • Diverse energy mix
        • Maximum indigenous resource utilization
      • Long-term viability of energy sector
        • Appropriate distribution of responsibilities (policy formulation, regulation, ownership, and management)
        • Rational industry structure (government role, public-private partnership, exclusive private ownership)
        • Sustainable pricing regime (cost-of-service, transparent and targeted subsidies)
    • 13. Need for Integrated Energy Planning and Energy Mix Optimization
      • Technological developments
        • Increased equipment efficiencies in generation, transmission, distribution, and end-use
        • Improved coal extraction and utilization technologies
        • Enhanced oil and gas recovery techniques
        • Improved economics of renewable energy development
      • Changes in relative prices of fuels
        • Crude oil and petroleum products
        • Natural gas
        • LNG
        • Coal
      • Geo-political considerations
    • 14. Energy Sector Action Plan
      • Oil and gas E&P:
        • Attractive policy package and a transparent concession award process
        • Basin study being undertaken to update assessment of reserves
        • Upstream petroleum policy being revised to further incentivize E&P
      • Gas import pipelines:
        • Substantial progress on the IPI project regarding gas quality and volumes, gas pricing, project structure, and agreement on the way forward for expeditious project implementation
        • Turkmenistan and Qatar also being considered as sources of supply
    • 15. Energy Sector Action Plan (Contd.)
      • LNG:
        • Expected commissioning of a fast track private sector project in 2008
        • Expected commissioning of LNG import terminal by 2011/2012
        • Modular capacity addition planned
      • Coal:
        • Integrated coal mining and power generation project (2 x 135 MW) being established at Sonda Jherruk
        • Study to define the road map for development and utilization of Thar coal has been completed
        • A Thar coal mining company has been established with minority participation by the federal and the Sindh governments and majority participation from the private sector
    • 16. Energy Sector Action Plan (Contd.)
      • Power generation:
      • Expected capacity additions 1 by FY2017:
      • Import of electricity from CAS: Technical, economic, and commercial studies are being commissioned by the World Bank and ADB to develop electricity trading arrangements for a high-voltage power transmission line from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan
      Source: 1. Power Generation Planning by WAPDA, May and March 2007, KESC submission to Planning Commission in Feb, 2007 300 MW Nuclear 28,700 MW Total 13,600 MW Thermal 14,800 MW Hydel
    • 17. Indicative Investment Requirements for the Energy Sector US$ Million
      • Share of private sector in investments is estimated at over 50%
      • An additional investment of US$ 12 billion for development of mining, power generation, and coal to liquids is estimated if development of Thar coal proves to be feasible
      • Source and Basis: WAPDA and MTDF. Current market rates for cost of generation capacity assumed
      • Discovery rate to maintain current indigenous production levels assumed
      5,000 -
        • Oil Refineries
      2,100 1,300
        • Gas Transmission & Distribution and CNG
      3,100 3,100
        • Oil and Gas E & P 2
      39,200 15,800
        • Total Energy Sector
      28,000 11,000
        • Total Power Sector 1
      11,200 4,800
        • Total Oil and Gas Sector
      1,000 350
        • Gas Import Pipeline and LNG
      11,500 3,100
        • Power Transmission and Distribution
      16,500 7,900
        • Power Generation
      2011-2015 2005-2010

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