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Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb
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Sussex Development Lecture Terry Cannon 17 Feb

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Sussex Development Lecture, Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters, 17 February, Terry Cannon

Sussex Development Lecture, Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters, 17 February, Terry Cannon

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  • Notes: The source for political violence data is: Sivard, R. 2001, World military and social expenditures , Washington DC: World Priorities. For all other causes, data is summarised from that available at www.cred.be/emdat The figure for slow-onset disasters has been increased by us to an estimate of 70 million, much higher than the official data, which would give a total of around 18 million. This is to compensate for large-scale under-reporting of deaths from drought and famine. There are several reasons why this can occur. For instance, it is often the case that governments conceal or refuse to acknowledge famine for political reasons. The ‘Great Leap’ famine in China (1958-61) was officially denied for more than twenty years, and then low estimates put the number of deaths at 13 million and higher ones at up to 30 million or more (see Chapter 4, At Risk ). A further problem is that sometimes recorded deaths in famine are limited to those who die in officially managed feeding or refugee camps. Many more are likely to die without records at home or in other settlements.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Sussex Development Lecture 17 February 2011 Unnatural Disasters, Natural Hazards Terry Cannon Climate Change & Development Group These slides will make more sense in conjunction with the recording of the lecture available here: http://www.ids.ac.uk/go/news/natural-hazards-unnatural-disasters-understanding-disasters-in-the-context-of-development
    • 2. Starting out – what do we mean by disasters…
      • 1976 Nature article
      • At the same time I am sitting in India, amidst flood waters, writing a very similar article published later in a geography magazine
      • Soon after, I met Ben Wisner in Sheffield, and the idea of the book that became At Risk was born
      • 35 years later the idea of natural hazards has not gone away, but its influence has been reduced – for some a paradigm shift to vulnerability analysis
    • 3. Nature 1976
    • 4.
      • 1994 1 st edition
      • 2004, 2 nd edition
      • First three chapters free on internet at
      • http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/Literature/7235.pdf
      • Translations:
      • Spanish 1996
      • Japanese 2010, published by Tsukiji Shokan
      • Chinese in preparation
    • 5.
      • In the past 30 years, a great shift has taken place in "explaining" disasters: away from the notion that they are "natural" and towards the idea that people are "vulnerable".
      • But what makes people vulnerable, and is it the same as poverty? This lecture explores these issues, and argues that vulnerability is a consequence of two major issues: failed or bad development, and unsuitable attitudes to risk.
      • And why should disasters be seen in the context of “development” (and what do I mean by that?)
      • Short answer – vulnerability is a reflection of good and bad development
    • 6. 1900 – 1999 Cause of death Estimates used in At Risk 2 nd edition Numbers Killed (millions) % Political violence 270.7 62.4 Slow-onset disaster 70.0 16.1 Epidemics 50.7 11.6 Road, rail, air & industrial incidents 32.0 7.6 Rapid-onset disaster 10.7 2.3 TOTAL 434.1 100
    • 7.
      • 9 million child deaths per annum from 5 preventable diseases
      • Malaria, polio, pneumonia, diarrhoea, measles
    • 8. Disasters are not “natural”
      • The hazard is natural, but all disasters are socially constructed…
      • Earthquakes do not kill people – buildings do
      • Social construction of different types: social systems lead people to live in dangerous places for different reasons:
        • good place to gain a livelihood
        • choose to live to live there for other benefits
        • forced to live there by economic and/or political processes that reduce people’s choices: class-based exposure to risk
        • combination of some or all these
    • 9. Social construction of disasters
      • Shift from “physicalist” or naturalist explanations to include vulnerability
      • What needs to be included in the processes of social construction? Enter:
        • Vulnerability
        • Capacity
        • Resilience?
        • Exposure
        • “ Culture”
        • Community… oh dear!
      • Let’s start with why disasters are not natural, then build up the factors to be included
    • 10. Blog on Haiti earthquake, 2010
    • 11. Book on Hurricane Katrina disaster 2006, Routledge
    • 12. There is no such thing as a sudden onset disaster – each one has been in preparation for many years already.. James Lewis
    • 13. World Bank publication 2010 Input document for the 2011 Global Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction
    • 14. British Medical Journal, 2 June 2001
    • 15. Police now put up notices that say Traffic Incident
    • 16.
      • Sweden’s long-term road safety goal is that there should be no fatalities or serious injuries in road traffic.
      • This goal was approved by the Swedish Parliament in 1997 and is based on the “Vision Zero” program.
      • Swedish road safety work is based on a refusal to accept human deaths or lifelong suffering as a result of road traffic.
      Estimate of global road deaths 2004: 1.2 million (this is around 10% of ALL deaths from sudden natural hazard impacts for the ENTIRE 20 th century)
    • 17. New York City version of Swedish Vision Zero “ Under Vision Zero, safety is prioritized over all other objectives of the transportation system, including mobility” Is this feasible in relation to natural hazards? USA road deaths 2004 48,500
    • 18.  
    • 19. How many people have been killed by earthquakes in the past 100 years?
      • One of easiest to define as socially constructed
      • Probably less than a thousand? Heart attacks etc.
      • People are killed by buildings and structures collapsing, not by earthquakes
      • Earthquakes are not natural disasters – they are socially constructed – caused by “society”
      • (Many people are killed in secondary impacts of earthquakes – fire, landslides, tsunami, floods from reservoirs and lakes - earthquakes are almost always more than one disaster – they show how disasters are complex and compound)
    • 20. Wenchuan earthquake 12 May 2008 Main shock 7.9 Richter many powerful aftershocks 88,000 dead and missing, of which 5,300 children (official figure…) 375,000 injured For pictures of the impact of the earthquake put this into Google: “ wenchuan earthquake pictures”. Photos cannot be reproduced here for copyright reasons.
    • 21. In this photo combo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, Penghua Village in Mianzhu is shown on August 11, 2006, above, and then after this week's devastating quake on Friday, May 16, 2008, bottom. AP Photo/Xinhua, Chen Xie http://cryptome.cn/cn-quake6/cn-quake6.htm
    • 22. Parents holding portraits of their dead children attend a memorial service at the destroyed Fuxing primary school in the earthquake-hit Wufu town of Mianzhu county, Sichuan province May 21, 2008. The Chinese government has announced 19,000 students were killed in the earthquake. http://www.welt.de/english-news/article2759080/Chinese-govt-19-000-students-died-in-earthquake.html
    • 23. REUTERS Weeping parents hold portraits of their children during a May 27 memorial service at the ruins of Juyuan Middle School
    • 24. Ai Weiwei was attacked by police in Sichuan (China) hotel during his show (top right, school children’s backpacks) about the earthquake. Photo shows him being treated later in Munich during his show (top left)
    • 25.
      • How should we define the term vulnerability?
      • Is it the inverse (reciprocal) of capacity / capability / resilience ?
      • Is it a general condition, or do you have to be vulnerable to something?
      • It must be predictive – not some vague general condition somehow similar to poverty
    • 26. The Vulnerability word…
      • Have become almost as useless as the term sustainable …
      • Abused by politicians, media, and researchers?...
      • Need to rescue it to have some proper scientific meaning:
      • Must be predictive (not post-hoc), related to specific risks, category-specific – we must know vulnerable to what?
      • (compare “Freedom” – must be freedom from what?)
    • 27. Hazard Flood Cyclone Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Drought Landslide Biological Vulnerability component Livelihood & its resilience Base-line status Well-being Self-protection Social Protection Governance E X P O S U R E “ Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model D I S A S T E R
    • 28. Components of Vulnerability
      • Livelihood & its resilience
        • Assets and income earning activities
      • Base-line status - well-being
        • Health (physical & mental), nutrition,
      • Self-protection
        • Quality of house construction & location
      • Social Protection
        • Adequacy of building controls; large-scale measures
      • Governance
        • Power system, rights, status of civil society
    • 29. Defining Governance
      • “ the way power is exercised in the management of a country’s economic and social resources for development”
      • World Bank Governance and Development, 1992
      • All agree we need good governance – what is it?
      • Bad governance = when power is used for the benefit of the powerful…
      • What are the priorities of different actors?
    • 30. National & International Political Economy Power relations Demographics Conflicts & War Environmental Trends Debt Crises Etc Social Structures & Power Systems Class Gender Ethnicity Caste Other power relationships Hazard Flood Cyclone Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Drought Landslide Biological D I S A S T E R Vulnerability component Livelihood & its resilience Base-line status Well-being Self-protection Social Protection Governance S O C I A L F R A M E “ Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model R O O T C A U S E S
    • 31. PAR / “crunch” model used by hundreds of NGOs, international organisations and researchers
      • The model is used in IDS Strengthening Climate Resilience project on Climate Smart Disaster Risk Management approach
      • http://community.eldis.org/scr/
    • 32.  
    • 33. Simplified history of concepts
      • Disasters are natural disasters
      • (“naturalist” / “physicalist” explanations)
      • 1970s – paradigm shift – enter vulnerability analysis
      • (e.g. At Risk , Wisner et al) disasters socially constructed
      • Disasters = Hazard x Vulnerability
      • 1980s – enter “community”, capability, resilience…
      • (e.g. Rising from the Ashes 1989 Anderson & Woodrow
      • Disasters = Hazard x Vulnerability
      • Capacity
      • 1990s – enter “disaster risk reduction/ management”
      • Disasters = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability Capacity
      • 2000s – enter role of culture, innocence and disasters
      • Disasters = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability x “Culture”
      • Capacity/Resilience
    • 34. Conceptual progression…
      • Disasters are social constructs
      • But what factors and processes should be identified as contributing to this social construction?
      • Vulnerability (coping, capacity, resilience...)
      • Capacity (avoid victim mentality) > Resilience
      • Exposure
      • Risk taking behaviour > “Culture”
    • 35. National & International Political Economy Power relations Demographics Conflicts & War Environmental Trends Debt Crises Etc Social Structures & Power Systems Class Gender Ethnicity Caste Other power relationships Hazard Flood Cyclone Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Drought Landslide Biological D I S A S T E R Vulnerability component Livelihood & its resilience Base-line status Well-being Self-protection Social Protection Governance S O C I A L F R A M E “ Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model R O O T C A U S E S Exposure Population increase: changes in the number of more or less vulnerable people Location of that increase
    • 36. The PAR “crunch” model is a basic approach, with limitations discussed in the book. The main limits are dealt with through the much more complex “Access” model, dealt with in Chapter 3 of At Risk . The next slide is the basic diagram of the Access model.
    • 37. “ Access” model – household political ecology
    • 38. National & International Political Economy Carbon based growth Power relations Environmental Trends Debt Crises Etc Social Structures & Power Systems Class Gender Ethnicity Caste Other power relationships Hazard Flood Cyclone Drought Landslide Biological D I S A S T E R
      • Vulnerability component
      • Livelihood & its resilience
      • Base-line status
      • Well-being
      • Self-protection
      • Social Protection
      • Governance
      S O C I A L F R A M E R O O T C A U S E S Climate change makes hazards worse Exposure Population increase: changes in the number of more or less vulnerable people Location of that increase Poverty hits environment CC undermines livelihoods & increases exposure
    • 39. Regional distribution is uneven Environment provides: Risks Opportunities Hazards: floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, eruptions Production resources: land, water, minerals, energy Class - Gender - Ethnicity Unequal access to opportunities and unequal exposure to hazards Social systems and power relations Political and economic systems – national and international People do not separate these! They are often willing to live in unsafe places
    • 40. Hazardous places are livelihood places
      • People often trade the risks of a place for the livelihood and other benefits of that location
        • Volcanic soils
        • Floods and soil fertility and fish
        • Coasts for fishing
        • Water supplies and fault zones
        • Florida, California, Netherlands…
      • Living in dangerous places
        • are people forced?
        • do they choose? or a combination
        • Do they have a different set of priorities?
    • 41. Scale of choice of where to live and work Less choice More choice No choice but to live in dangerous places Choosing to live in dangerous places Essential livelihoods are often in dangerous places
    • 42.
      • “ Any idiot can face a crisis. It is day-to-day living that wears you out.”
      • A character’s comment in The Wager (short story) by Anton Chekhov
      • People typically do not have the same concept of risk as outsiders who want them to prepare for hazards. Thousands of community surveys show that people give priority to everyday issues as at the bottom of the next slide
    • 43.
      • Risk hierarchy
      Extreme but infrequent “ Little we can do about them..” Damaging & within memory Common & coped with Everyday life: poverty, illness, hunger, water, traffic accidents Priorities ! EQ Land slide Flood Drought Fire Tropical cyclones Severe flood
    • 44. Photo: La Paz, Bolivia Fabien Nathan In this and the next photos, Fabien Nathan has interviewed the inhabitants of many of the houses and found that people are choosing to live there. In the final photo, you can see that after a landslide, they are putting in reinforcements to save the house that now hangs over the slope...
    • 45. Photo: La Paz, Bolivia Fabien Nathan
    • 46. Photo: La Paz, Bolivia Fabien Nathan
    • 47. Photo: La Paz, Bolivia Fabien Nathan
    • 48. Problem of community as the “agency” of implementation
      • Community-based this and that is the solution to all the world’s problems…
        • Community Based Disaster Risk Management /Reduction
        • Community Based Adaptation
        • WB and UNDP decentralisation policies after 1990s
      • Climate change and adaptation funding – the coming nightmare of determining how it should be spent...
    • 49. Bringing in “culture” & community...
      • People’s attitudes to risk –
        • People’s willingness to take risks….
        • fatalism, predestination, “it will not happen to me…”
        • risk hierarchy & dominance of the every day
      • Power at the locality
        • Class, caste, ethnicity, religion, etc
        • One person’s vulnerability is another person’s resilience…
        • Assets (capitals) are unequally owned and controlled
    • 50. Disaster preparedness project in Cambodia
      • The project had considerable difficulties in dealing with the internal tensions within ‘community’.
      • The project leader said:
      • “ The more powerful in society may not want the most vulnerable to participate. Therefore changing this may require advocacy by the NGO which is not really compatible with a participatory research methodology, or by-passing the more powerful in society which is not sustainable once the NGO has left. Doing this may actually endanger the most vulnerable, putting them at risk of reprisals.”
    • 51. Situation report after the Indian Ocean tsunami (26 December 2004): “ Although devastating, the tsunami disaster is not likely to have a catastrophic impact on economies in the region. This is mainly because the areas affected, for the most part, were not industrial centers but poor fishing villages and small coastal towns, places of limited economic value.” This assessment by a risk analysis corporation leaves out the community...
    • 52. Spaces for development – where do our goals fit into the way the world works, what is our scope for success against more powerful processes
      • Development is NOT the same as economic growth
      • Development is what we try to achieve purposely against the operation of normal “progress” – market economy, existing power relations, goals of corporations and governments, landlords and despots
      • Development space is shrinking in the face of corporate power and neo-liberalism, and with it the space for disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change
    • 53. Global Income Distribution, 2000 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Patterns_of_economic_growth_and_development
    • 54. The spaces for development are constrained by much more powerful processes and actors... Hierarchies of influence… 2006 US$ millions GNP of USA 13,000,000 Banking and credit crises.. ?,000,000 Foreign Direct Investment 1,200,000 Official Development Assistance 104,421 US costs of wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, “on terror”, per annum (estimate) 80,000 EU Common Agricultural Policy farm subsidies 53,000 USA spending on pets 34,000 Oxfam International 640

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