Storm in a teacup? Adapting to the impacts of climate change in China Thomas Tanner (IDS) Declan Conway (University of East Anglia) 20 th November 2008

“ Climate change is a major global issue of common concern to the international community. It is an issue involving both environment and development, but it is ultimately an issue of development.” China’s National Climate Change Programme June 2007.

China and Climate Adaptation – Why the Interest? Continental scale geography and population Significant contributor to global emissions Recent history of climate change Rapid growth and socio-economic change Existing environmental stresses

Continental scale geography and population

Significant contributor to global emissions

Recent history of climate change

Rapid growth and socio-economic change

Existing environmental stresses

Increasing awareness and recognition of exposure and sensitivity; - Floods 2007 - Spring Festival 2008

Climate Change in China: Impacts and adaptation Defra-DFID China-UK collaboration Prof Lin Erda [email_address] Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Declan Conway, UEA [email_address]

Achievements in Phase I (2001-04) Climate Change Scenarios Temperature to increase by 3~4℃ and rainfall to increase 10~12% by 2080s Crop Yield Changes Yields of rice, maize and wheat to change significantly in the next 80 years - without any adaptations 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

Phase II (2005-08) Aims: Improvements to national modeling of climate impacts Ningxia case study: Integrated assessment for adaptation policy making

Aims:

Improvements to national modeling of climate impacts

Ningxia case study: Integrated assessment for adaptation policy making

The integration approach

Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers Only climate change: Without CO 2 , modest negative impacts by 2050s

Only climate change:

Without CO 2 , modest negative impacts by 2050s

Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers Climate change and CO 2 : With CO 2 , production increases in all cases

Climate change and CO 2 :

With CO 2 , production increases in all cases

Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers Climate change and water: Water is a significant limiting factor for future cereal production

Climate change and water:

Water is a significant limiting factor for future cereal production

All drivers together: Multiple effects; CO 2 tends to counter-balance impacts, BUT…

All drivers together:

Multiple effects; CO 2 tends to counter-balance impacts, BUT…

PRECIS simulates upper limits of precipitation increase Effects of extremes (and pests/diseases) underestimated National analysis obscures areas with much larger changes (maize high sensitivity) CO 2 effect may not be so large/sustained ‘ Optimistic’ results

PRECIS simulates upper limits of precipitation increase

Effects of extremes (and pests/diseases) underestimated

National analysis obscures areas with much larger changes (maize high sensitivity)

CO 2 effect may not be so large/sustained

Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west China Semi-arid to arid – high levels of rural poverty Range of different farming systems

Research impacts and vulnerability in the agricultural sector To help develop the capacity to plan for and respond to a changing climate in China and Ningxia Design a regional adaptation framework and strategy for Ningxia Awareness raising, dissemination and engagement Ningxia regional Integrated Assessment – objectives

Research impacts and vulnerability in the agricultural sector

To help develop the capacity to plan for and respond to a changing climate in China and Ningxia

Design a regional adaptation framework and strategy for Ningxia

Awareness raising, dissemination and engagement

Adaptation guidelines for Ningxia Technical report User-friendly reports; ‘ adaptation framework’ how to apply the framework adaptation strategy for the agricultural sector in Ningxia

Technical report

User-friendly reports;

‘ adaptation framework’

how to apply the framework

adaptation strategy for the agricultural sector in Ningxia

An adaptation framework for Ningxia Working with UKCIP Adaptation as a process 3 Identify adaptation options 1 Assess climate risks 2 Integrate development and adaptation goals 4 Prioritise options New knowledge/ research 6 Monitoring and evaluation 5 Implementation

High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation Consider establishment of a cross-departmental group on adaptation within regional government Raising awareness on climate change trends, potential impacts and adaptation activities across the region

Consider establishment of a cross-departmental group on adaptation within regional government

Raising awareness on climate change trends, potential impacts and adaptation activities across the region

High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation Good potential exists to integrate concerns within ongoing rural development programmes

Good potential exists to integrate concerns within ongoing rural development programmes

www.china-climate-adapt.org

An applied approach to climate change impacts in the Chinese water sector 4 case studies of major development programmes Team of water resources, economics and agriculture experts Feeding into NDRC thinking and strategy on adaptation

Rationale Climate change impacts affect the effectiveness of development investments Pilot an adaptive approach based on adapting existing management systems Adaptation: Assessing how project objectives might be affected by future climate-related impacts, and identifying options to manage impacts and exploit opportunities.

Climate change impacts affect the effectiveness of development investments

Pilot an adaptive approach based on adapting existing management systems

Time Current End-date Current Project objective Indicator Effect of climate change – failure to meet Objective Project progress with climate change Without climate change Change due to planned infrastructure, management changes etc within Development Project

Case Studies Project Location Flood control and land drainage management project Huai River Basin Integrated Water and environment management project Hai River Basin Water Conservation Plan Hai River Basin Integrated Restoration Plan Shi Yan River Basin Climate change impacts Increased flooding Increased reservoir inflow Increased water deficit Reduced catchment runoff

Case Studies Project Adaptation options Flood control and land drainage management project Drainage canal pond network, raise land Raise runoff canals Improve flood and drought monitoring, forecasting, warning and operating systems Integrated Water and environment management project Convert paddy areas Interbasin water transfer Water reuse through sewage treatment Water Conservation Plan Water pricing Drainage and irrigation Integrated Restoration Plan Water saving projects Inter-basin water transfer

Drainage canal pond network, raise land

Raise runoff canals

Improve flood and drought monitoring, forecasting, warning and operating systems

Convert paddy areas

Interbasin water transfer

Water reuse through sewage treatment

Water pricing

Drainage and irrigation

Water saving projects

Inter-basin water transfer

What do the results tell us? Challenges of traditional climate science Existing ‘adaptation gap / deficit’ Adaptation as providing opportunities Adaptive responses framed as both technological and social

Challenges of traditional climate science

Existing ‘adaptation gap / deficit’

Adaptation as providing opportunities

Adaptive responses framed as both technological and social

Challenges: Climate Science Uncertainty about the detail of CC remains high research to reduce uncertainties flexibility / adaptive management Time scales beyond horizons of stakeholders Other socio-economic changes more significant Modelling impacts can become very complex and time consuming Climate science Seasonal forecasting / Decadal variability (causes of droughts) Improved understanding of CO2-crop water use-land cover interactions Better understanding of extremes (projections and impacts)

Uncertainty about the detail of CC remains high

research to reduce uncertainties

flexibility / adaptive management

Time scales beyond horizons of stakeholders

Other socio-economic changes more significant

Modelling impacts can become very complex and time consuming

Methods: Impacts assessment – can be very technical/time consuming – keep simple Consultation essential – understanding current sensitivity, vulnerability and capacity to adapt Beyond economic cost benefit analysis - MCA recognises other factors in decision making Embed CC concerns within existing management systems and processes No blueprints for adaptation process –invest time on communication and awareness raising

Impacts assessment – can be very technical/time consuming – keep simple

Consultation essential – understanding current sensitivity, vulnerability and capacity to adapt

Beyond economic cost benefit analysis - MCA recognises other factors in decision making

Embed CC concerns within existing management systems and processes

No blueprints for adaptation process –invest time on communication and awareness raising

Opportunities: Recent extremes may highlight current sensitivity and vulnerability (and effective responses) Collaboration, ‘shared experiences’ worked well National and international implications Many existing options often already present – ‘no regrets’ [CC often exacerbates existing problems] Entry points likely to deal with existing ‘adaptation gap’: better management of climate impacts

Recent extremes may highlight current sensitivity and vulnerability (and effective responses)

Collaboration, ‘shared experiences’ worked well

National and international implications

Many existing options often already present – ‘no regrets’ [CC often exacerbates existing problems]

Entry points likely to deal with existing ‘adaptation gap’: better management of climate impacts

Thank you www.china-climate-adapt.org

www.china-climate-adapt.org

Project description Identify climate- sensitive components Problem analysis Rapid strategic descriptive summary Identify climate-sensitive components Identify relevant quantitative project objectives Identify appropriate indicators Descriptive overview of each Case Study 1 Phase Steps

Rapid strategic descriptive summary

Identify climate-sensitive components

Identify relevant quantitative project objectives

Identify appropriate indicators

Descriptive overview of each Case Study

Project description Identify climate- sensitive components Problem analysis Semi-quantitative analysis of impacts Quantitative analysis of adaptation options Rapid strategic descriptive summary Identify climate-sensitive components Identify relevant quantitative project objectives Identify appropriate indicators Develop scenarios Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope? Assess need for adaptation Identify adaptation options Estimate costs of each adaptation option Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation) Descriptive overview of each Case Study 1 2 Phase Steps

Rapid strategic descriptive summary

Identify climate-sensitive components

Identify relevant quantitative project objectives

Identify appropriate indicators

Develop scenarios

Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope?

Assess need for adaptation

Identify adaptation options

Estimate costs of each adaptation option

Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation)

Descriptive overview of each Case Study

Project description Identify climate- sensitive components Problem analysis Semi-quantitative analysis of impacts Quantitative analysis of adaptation options Multiple Criteria Analysis Rapid strategic descriptive summary Identify climate-sensitive components Identify relevant quantitative project objectives Identify appropriate indicators Develop scenarios Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope? Assess need for adaptation Identify adaptation options Estimate costs of each adaptation option Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation) Evaluate preferred option (including ‘No changes currently needed’) Descriptive overview of each Case Study 1 2 3 Phase Steps

Rapid strategic descriptive summary

Identify climate-sensitive components

Identify relevant quantitative project objectives

Identify appropriate indicators

Develop scenarios

Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope?

Assess need for adaptation

Identify adaptation options

Estimate costs of each adaptation option

Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation)

Evaluate preferred option (including ‘No changes currently needed’)

Descriptive overview of each Case Study

Experiences from Testing in Water Sector in China Raise awareness and promote action China’s experience in managing climate impacts Dealing with future uncertainty Scenario, Timescale, Extreme events Non-monetary aspects of economic evaluation Tackling demand as well as supply issues

Raise awareness and promote action

China’s experience in managing climate impacts

Dealing with future uncertainty

Scenario, Timescale, Extreme events

Non-monetary aspects of economic evaluation

Tackling demand as well as supply issues

General Experiences and Lessons for Climate Screening in China The suggested framework is flexible E.g. Applied to contrasting aspects of water sector Not a finished process Ongoing cycle of learning Integration into planning is required ‘ No change’ option Adaptation not always best option Need to avoid lock-in, maintain flexibility Ongoing monitoring of impacts and management

The suggested framework is flexible

E.g. Applied to contrasting aspects of water sector

Not a finished process

Ongoing cycle of learning

Integration into planning is required

‘ No change’ option

Adaptation not always best option

Need to avoid lock-in, maintain flexibility

Ongoing monitoring of impacts and management

Possible Next Steps Integration into planning and design Further case study learning – other sectors Improved applied climate science – uncertainty

Integration into planning and design