Riots: Understanding mindless criminality and the poverty impacts of violence
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Riots: Understanding mindless criminality and the poverty impacts of violence. Jaideep Gupte, Research Fellow, Sussex Development Lecture 3 November 2011

Riots: Understanding mindless criminality and the poverty impacts of violence. Jaideep Gupte, Research Fellow, Sussex Development Lecture 3 November 2011

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  • Because of these three elements, civil violence is a much preferred term to others like simply riots, or ‘communal violence’..
  • 1863 – NY – Draft week; 18th Cent – Food riots UK; 1771 – Moscow – Plague’ 1844 – Philadelphia Nativist (Rumours that Catholic Church removing the bible from schools).
  • This does not take into account the fatality count in riots
  • 3 spheres: social, electoral, civic
  • The Household survey was a large and complex instrument, but today I’m going to speak about the spatial variables we collected.
  • Three broad groupings – religious, state, and open/social spaces (schools since imply a gathering of youth)
  • Then converted it to a geo-referenced platform: This allows us to measure distances between markers, get a visual impression, but also look for spatial patterns – are households randomly dispersed or clustered?
  • In 71% of our sites we found victims of public violence.
  • But there are varying experiences of violence
  • NON-ACUTE Dispersion: we find that as compared with all HHS (which are clustered around roads), non-acute victims (those who saw or said they experienced public violence, but were not physically hurt or did not report damages to financial or physical assets.
  • On the other hand, ACUTE CLUSTERING
  • So there are distinct patterns which tells us that we need to treat the two type of victims differently. How does this alter the results? Importantly, Punitive arms of the State are significantly absent from Acute victim sites, and POLICE BUILDINGS are unlikely to be in acute victim sites; BUT are mostly present in non-acute victim sites. Administrative arms of the State are also absent from acute victim sites. ALL STATE arms pooled together are also significantly less prevalent in acute victim sites. So policy response is NOT CLEAR – more police would prevent acute victims, but not the violence, so non-acute victims and routine violence would continue.
  • As suggested earlier, the two type of victims might also suggest different modalities of violence. So I’ve separated out site where less than 8% of the HHS saw the episode of violence as low-intensity, more than 8% but less than 33%- medium intensity, and above 33% then high-intensity. NON-ACUTE victims are prevalent across all three type of sites, but most prevalent in high intensity sites. And as expected ACUTE-VICTIMS are found mainly in high intensity episodes. HIGH INTENSITY sites have significantly lower presence of PUNITIVE and ADMINISTRATIVE arms of the State, but PUNITIVE arms of the state are most likely to be found in medium intensity sites.
  • Looking at some individual spatial markers, we find that POST-OFFICESare far more likely to be in peaceful sites, while MARKETS are much more likely to be in violent neighbourhoods. How might we explain this? Might have something to do with face-to-face meeting of the postman? Not sure – any suggestions?
  • collective bravado transformed into individual shame and guilt. Fear of parents, need respect, would take up a police job since it brings respect. Profound imp to teenage angst
  • Is it ethical to use the sentiment of revolution to sell products?

Riots: Understanding mindless criminality and the poverty impacts of violence Riots: Understanding mindless criminality and the poverty impacts of violence Presentation Transcript

  • RIOTS:UNDERSTANDING „MINDLESSCRIMINALITY‟ AND THE POVERTYIMPACTS OF CIVIL VIOLENCEJAIDEEP GUPTE, IDS
  • Two main points to take away from thislecture:•Why and how riots occur: Not „mindless‟ nor simply „organic‟ • There are clear spatial patterns; within–city variations • Evidence shows an inverse relationship with the State – occur in „vacuums‟.• Impacts of riots: Range of impacts at different levels • Obvious, short-term: Damages to life, property • Longer-term: psychosocial impacts; recursive mechanisms which perpetuate the violence.
  • Why and how riots occur?What‟s civil about violence?„Civil violence‟ – public acts of violence anddisorder directed either against the State orbetween groups of people.Rioting, public fights, stone pelting, damagingpublic space and property, bottle/missilethrowing, looting, arson, tyre burning.
  • Why and how riots occur?1863 New York 18th Cent. England1771 Moscow 1844 Philadelphia Riots1992 Mumbai 2011 London
  • Why and how riots occur?Routine civil violence vs. flare-upsWhy look at the „routine‟?- Arguable that it has more deep rooted causes and impacts- Allows us to look at the long term, cyclical, factors- Allows us to question whether there are similarities between flare-ups androutine violence - Some evidence that the two might be related phenomenon and can often be traced back to a similar trajectory
  • Why and how riots occur?How routine is routine?120000 India100000 80000 60000 Riots 40000 Murders 20000 Banditry 0 Source: Crime in India, Govt of India, various years
  • 500 0 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1950 (8) 1951 1952 1953 (1) 1954 1955 (2) 1956 (1) 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 (4) Maharashtra 1963 (1) 1964 1965 (3) 1966 (3) 1967 (2) 1968 (3) 1969 (3) Killed 1970 (18) 1971 1972 (1) 1973(5) 1974 (7) 1975 (6) Injured 1976 1977 (3) 1978 (3) 1979 1980 (7)Varshney-Wilkinson 2004; Jaffrelot 1996; Others 1981 (5) Arrested 1982 (12) 1983 (12) 1984 (9) 1985 (7) (Number of riots in each year shown in brackets) 1986 (26) 1987 (15) 1988 (3) 1989 (5) 1990 (7) 1991 (1) Hindu - Muslim riots in Maharastra - Killed, Injured, Arrested 1950-1995 1992 (10) 1993 (6) 1994 1995 (1) Why and how riots occur?
  • Why and how riots occur?Civil violence: interaction with State and society- What do we know? - Riots are borne out of Institutionalised Riot Systems: hierarchical structures deep rooted within society. Paul Brass (Theft of an Idol) tells us that the triggering of riots is not as spontaneous a phenomenon as it might seem. „Riot Captains‟ direct teams of people specifically positioned to instigate public fights. - Riots are closely related with electoral cycles: Steven Wilkinson shows us that when the incumbent government relies on votes from the „grievance group‟, it prevents riots. - Riots result out of a break down of civic engagement: Ashutosh Varshney shows us a strong correlation between low levels of institutionalised civic engagement (bowling alone) in cities and riots. - Social friction is underpinned by horizontal inequalities (Francis Stewart).
  • Why and how riots occur?Civil violence: interaction with State and society- What we don‟t know: - How riots interact with non-elected State institutions (Administrative, Punitive, Correctional). 1. Visibly represent state authority; punitive and correctional functions directly confront disorder, and so share a close interface 2. The state‟s redistributive functions are dependent on its administrative bodies and so these are deeply connected with social outcomes. 3. Non-elected state institutions, like urban planning departments, significantly alter the public spaces in which civil violence unfolds.
  • Why and how riots occur?Evidence from Maharashtra 307,731 km2 112,372,972 people 80.2% Hindu 10.6% Muslim
  • Why and how riots occur?Sampling: using voting booths45 Survey sites Nandurbar Dhule Amravati Jalgaon/Jamod Nagpur Bhandara Gondia- ‘Voting booth zones‟ (groups of ~200 Jalgaon Wardha Dhule City Akola Khamgaon households) chosen to match most recent Malegaon Buldhana violence (based on pre-interviewing; Nasik Washim Buldhana City AurangabadJalna Yavatmal Chandrapur Digras media reports; studies) Pusad Gadchiroli Thane Hingoli- Higher number of sites with fewer Thane/Bhiwandi Parbhani Nanded Mumbai Mumbai Ahmadnagar Nanded HHs per site Bid Pune- Randomisation ensured incidence Raigadh Latur Osmanabad and non-incidence sites Osmanabad Solapur- Takes into account: Satara incidence, endemic, criminality, administ Ratnagiri Sangli rative divisions and geographic regions. Miraj Ichalkaranji Kolhapur Sindhudurgh
  • Why and how riots occur?Measuring spaceMandir; Masjid; Convent; Church; Cemetery-Muslim; Cemetery-Hindu; Police; Municipal Office; Courts; Jail; Post Office; TVTower / Offices; Bus Stand; Health Facilities; Schools; College -University; Market; Cinema; Library; Gym; Stadium; Fort; Statue;Tower; Gate; Chowk; Swamp; Canal; Railway; River; Garden; Field;Open Area; Lake; Hills / Mountains; Ground; Playground; Bridge
  • Why and how riots occur?Measuring space Aggregated Variable Spatial features „Christian‟: Convent, Church „Hindu‟: Mandir, Cemetery-Hindu „Muslim‟ Masjid, Cemetery-Muslim „Religious‟: All of the above „State – Punitive‟: Police, Courts, Jail„State – Administrative‟: Post-office, Municipal Office „State – Services‟: Bus-stand, TV-tower „State – Symbols‟ Stadium, Fort, Statue, Tower, Gate „State‟ All of the above „Social spaces‟: Market, Cinema, Library, Gym „Educational facility‟: Schools, College, University Chowks, Bridges, River, Canal, Railway, Lake, „Bottlenecks‟ Hills/Mountains Play ground, Ground, Open Area, Swamp, Garden, „Gathering places‟ Field
  • Why and how riots occur?
  • Why and how riots occur?
  • Why and how riots occur?Victims versus non-victims Variable Obs Non-Victims Sites Victims Sites All Sites 35 28.6 71.4 Religious - Hindu 33 27.3 72.7 Religious - Muslim 24 29.2 70.8 Religious - Christian 3 33.3 66.7 Religious - All 35 28.6 71.4 State - Punitive 14 28.6 71.4 State - Administrative 11 45.5 54.6 State - Services 6 33.3 66.7 State - Symbols 13 23.1 76.9 State - All 24 37.5 62.5 Social Spaces 20 25.0 75.0 Health Facilities 19 26.32 73.68 Educational Facilities 23 30.4 69.6 Bottlenecks 31 29.0 71.0 Gathering Places 28 28.6 71.4
  • Why and how riots occur?But who is a „victim‟?“Acute” Those were physically hurt or reported damages to financial or physical assets“Non-Acute” Those who saw or said they experienced public violence, but were not physically hurt or did not report damages to financial or physical assets Might also suggest two modalities of violence
  • Nearest neighbours HHS clustered around roads, rivers, other features Non-acute victims randomly dispersed Evidence of „organic riots‟
  • Why and how riots occur?Acute and non-acute victims Ob Variable Non-Victims Sites Non-Acute Victims Sites Acute Victims Sites s All Sites 35 28.6 31.4 40.0 Religious - Hindu 33 27.3 30.3 42.4Religious - Muslim 24 29.2 29.2 41.7Religious - Christian 3 33.3 33.3 33.3 Religious - All 35 28.6 31.4 40.0 State - Punitive 14 28.6 57.1 14.3 (Police) (13) (30.77) (61.54) (7.69) State - Administrative 11 45.5 36.4 18.2 State - Services 6 33.3 50.0 16.7 State - Symbols 13 23.1 46.2 30.8 State - All 24 37.5 41.7 20.8 Social Spaces 20 25.0 25.0 50.0Health Facilities 19 26.32 31.58 42.11 Educational Facilities 23 30.4 30.4 39.1 Bottlenecks 31 29.0 32.3 38.7
  • Why and how riots occur?How about intensity of violence? Ob Low- Medium High Variable s peaceful Intensity Intensity All Sites 35 34.3 31.4 34.3 Non-Victims 35 34.3 31.4 34.3 Non-Acute Victims 25 24.0 28.0 48.0 Acute Victims 14 7.1 28.6 64.3 Religious - Hindu 33 33.3 30.3 36.4 Religious - Muslim 24 33.3 29.2 37.5 Religious - Christian 3 33.3 33.3 33.3 Religious - All 35 34.3 31.4 34.3 State - Punitive 14 28.6 57.1 14.3 State - Administrative 11 63.6 18.2 18.2 State - Services 6 66.7 0.0 33.3 State - Symbols 13 30.8 30.8 38.5 State - All 24 37.5 33.3 29.2 Social Spaces 20 25.0 30.0 45.0 Health Facilities 19 26.32 31.58 42.11 Educational Facilities 23 34.8 26.1 39.1 Bottlenecks 31 35.5 35.5 29.0 Gathering Places 28 35.7 32.1 32.1
  • Why and how riots occur?How about intensity of violence? Ob Low- Medium High Variable s peaceful Intensity Intensity Field 4 75.00 25.00 0.00 Market 12 16.67 33.33 50.00 Post Office 7 71.43 14.29 14.29
  • Why and how riots occur?Making sense of the resultsIn sum, we find:-Two types of victims/different modalities of violence -Acute and non-acute-When we look at these two groups differently, we find theabsence of non-elected State institutions, in particular the Punitive andAdministrative arms of the state to be a significant channel whenlooking at highly violent neighbourhoods.Both are evidence that this isn‟t „mindless criminality‟?
  • Impacts of routine civil violence Is violence linear?
  • Impacts of riots?Is violence linear? Direct ex-post impacts on: policing health? violence violence education? policing not time sensitive; no long term impacts ? lifechoices? Violence causes?structural change. ? It can not just be „turned off ‟…
  • Impacts of riots?Collective bravado, individual guiltWe have developed sophisticated models to look at householddecision making behaviour, but the most telling are the individualnarratives of those who have perpetrated the violence.• Incentives for physically perpetrating violence – „merit badge‟ to access extralegal authority• Individuals however also bear the burden of guiltBoth these are of profound importance in understanding teenageangst.
  • Impacts of riots?Emotive power of riotsIn 2011 an advert was banned for fear of provoking rioting in which country? What product was the ad for? The UK Levi‟s Jeans
  • Sites with at Sites with at least 1 Non- least 1 Acute Acute Victim Sites without All Variable Victim (1) (2) Victims (3) SitesReach of institutionsKnow your local police constables or officers 12.70% 9.10% 8.20% 10.10%Trust your local police 62.30% 57.90% 62.70% 60.90%Feel threatened by local police 11.90% 12.20% 14.70% 12.90%Feel safe in own house 99.00% 99.20% 98.70% 99.00%Anyone else besides the police provide security (6) 50.00% 0.00% 0.00% 18.20%Tried to meet the following peopleMLA 2.90% 4.70% 4.70% 4.00%MP 5.50% 6.20% 6.30% 6.00%Corporator 20.50% 20.50% 20.10% 20.40%Councillor/Sarpanch 1.30% 1.60% 0.60% 1.20%Community leader 3.10% 3.10% 1.90% 2.80%Religious leader 2.90% 2.60% 3.10% 2.80%Caste leader 3.40% 1.80% 2.50% 2.60%Teshildar 5.50% 4.20% 4.10% 4.60%BDO/circle officer 1.80% 1.60% 0.90% 1.50%Collector/ District Magistrate 1.00% 0.80% 0.90% 0.90%Local Police 9.90% 6.80% 9.10% 8.50%Owner of the house 83.60% 78.20% 81.20% 81.00%Average years living here 19 17.3 17.5 17.9Place where previously lived (7)Always lived here 27.50% 26.00% 27.90% 27.10%Elsewhere in the same ward 15.60% 20.50% 19.40% 18.50%Elsewhere in Mumbai 24.90% 24.20% 23.80% 24.30%In Maharashtra 30.60% 25.50% 21.90% 26.30%In another state 1.30% 3.90% 6.90% 3.90%In another country 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
  • Sites with at Sites with at least 1 Non- least 1 Acute Acute Victim Sites without All Variable Victim (1) (2) Victims (3) SitesOrganizations Political party 2.30% 1.80% 3.40% 2.50% Trade union 0.00% 0.30% 0.30% 0.20% Student organization 0.50% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% Farmer organization 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Cooperative 0.00% 0.30% 0.00% 0.10% Sport/cultural organization 0.80% 0.80% 0.30% 0.60% Gym 2.10% 1.60% 1.60% 1.70% Women’s group 9.40% 3.90% 5.30% 6.20% Local Mohallas committee 0.30% 0.30% 0.00% 0.20% Caste Panchayat / Sabha / Associations 0.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% Religious organizations / sects/ group 1.30% 0.30% 1.60% 1.00% Youth Organization 0.30% 0.30% 0.00% 0.20% Other 0.50% 2.60% 1.60% 1.60% Village redressial Commitee 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% None 84.70% 88.30% 85.90% 86.30%Water availability (5) 24 hours a day of running water 12.70% 9.60% 12.20% 11.50% Water taken from anywhere without payment 6.00% 7.30% 4.70% 6.10% Other sources 81.30% 83.10% 83.10% 82.50%Have an individual meter 86.20% 84.20% 86.20% 85.50%
  • Sites with at Sites with at least 1 Non- least 1 Acute Acute Victim Sites without All Variable Victim (1) (2) Victims (3) SitesReasons to move here (8)Voluntarily Resettled 31.90% 33.30% 27.40% 31.10%Forcible eviction from previous residence 4.30% 4.20% 0.90% 3.30%Marriage 45.50% 40.40% 53.50% 46.00%Job seeking 9.70% 15.10% 9.60% 11.60%Other 8.60% 7.00% 8.70% 8.10%Events occurred in neighborhood in last 12 months(at least 1 time)Rioting 42.10% 17.90% 1.90% 21.80%Stone pelting 34.80% 15.30% 3.10% 18.60%Public fights 35.30% 19.70% 6.90% 21.50%Bottle throwing 14.80% 3.60% 0.90% 6.80%Tire burning 17.40% 5.20% 1.30% 8.40%Damaging of bus or public property 14.30% 2.60% 0.60% 6.20%Agitation related to a bandh 16.10% 6.20% 0.90% 8.20%Violence during curfew 28.60% 10.90% 0.00% 14.00%Police harassment 4.90% 2.90% 0.00% 2.80%
  • Sites with at Sites with at least 1 Non- least 1 Acute Acute Victim Sites without All Variable Victim (1) (2) Victims (3) Sites SITE CHARACTERISTICSNumber of Sites 16 16 13 45Number of Households 385 385 319 1089Communal Violence Clusters (District-Level) Low 37.50% 43.80% 23.10% 35.60% Medium 31.30% 31.30% 30.80% 31.10% High 31.30% 25.00% 46.20% 33.30%Communal Violence Incidence Sites 62.50% 75.00% 76.90% 71.10% HOUSEHOLDS CHARACTERISTICSVictims Categories Acute Victims 8.10% 0.00% 0.00% 2.80% Non-Acute Victims 21.00% 11.70% 0.00% 11.60% Non Victims 70.90% 88.30% 100.00% 85.60%Religion Hindu 61.30% 54.30% 43.90% 53.70% Muslim 31.40% 39.00% 49.20% 39.30% Buddhist 6.20% 5.20% 6.00% 5.80% Other (4) 1.00% 1.60% 0.90% 1.20%Higher Education Level in HH Illiterate 1.00% 1.60% 0.30% 1.00% Literate but no formal education 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% School up to/ 4 years 2.10% 1.00% 1.90% 1.70% School 5-9 years 16.90% 22.30% 25.10% 21.20% SSC/HSC 41.80% 40.00% 39.80% 40.60% Some college but not graduate 12.70% 10.60% 11.30% 11.60% Graduate/post graduate-general 16.90% 18.40% 15.40% 17.00% Graduate/post graduate- professional 8.60% 6.00% 6.30% 7.00%Type of House Thatch 2.30% 1.30% 1.60% 1.70% Tin 8.10% 7.30% 4.10% 6.60% Asbestos 7.80% 3.40% 7.20% 6.10% Mixed materials 25.20% 33.00% 31.30% 29.80% Bricks 15.30% 8.80% 10.70% 11.70% Concrete 24.20% 36.90% 33.90% 31.50% In a building 16.40% 8.80% 11.30% 12.20% Wooden 0.80% 0.50% 0.00% 0.50%
  • Why and how riots occur?Sampling:- 5-6 start points and varying skip patterns.- Skip = n/#calls ≈ 4 or 5- Right Hand Thumb Rule- Careful counting- No main roads- Refusal rate maintained- Total n = 1089- Pre-selected in-depth interviewing with 50 - Direct involvement with civil violence (perpetrate/victim/witness of rioting, police brutality, stone pelting, arson, etc)