Some new trends in development cooperation –  nightmares and dreams? Gabriele Köhler Visiting Fellow, Vulnerability and ...
Overview:  <ul><li>1) Where are we?  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>poverty, exclusion, acute crises </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2) Evol...
Where are we?  human development &income poverty <ul><li>Human development at aggregate level:  </li></ul><ul><li>slow but...
Where are we?  human development &income poverty <ul><li>Absolute number and share of extremely poor people has  declined ...
Where are we?  Income poverty & human development <ul><li>But: number of extremely poor in Africa and South Asia  increase...
Where are we?  Systemic social  exclusions &  intersecting inequalities in North and South <ul><li>Economic inequalities <...
Where are we?  Economic, fiscal, climate crises  <ul><li>at least 100 million more people hungry and undernourished </li><...
Where are we?  Converging North and South <ul><li>MDG outcomes worst among socially excluded groups – in North  and  South...
  Evolution of development architecture Phase  I: Colonial administration (1900s – 1950s) <ul><li>Predominant ideology: </...
Evolution of development architecture Phase II: Independence movements & „development aid“  (1960-1980)   <ul><ul><li>Pred...
Evolution of development architecture Phase III: structural adjustment (1980s – 1989/1990 and beyond) <ul><ul><li>Predomin...
Evolution of development architecture Phase IV: Cooperation as “partnerships”  (1990s – 2000) <ul><ul><li>Predominant ideo...
Evolution of development architecture Phase V:  MDGs;  Aid Effectiveness  (2000 –  2008)  <ul><ul><li>Predominant ideologi...
 
Evolution of development architecture Phase VI:  Bipolar  development  since 2008  <ul><ul><li>Drivers </li></ul></ul><ul>...
s Countries of the world estimated GDP in purchasing power parity, 2010
 
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Gabriele Koehler SDL Lecture PowerPoint: Part 1

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  • Key points: Understanding of the politics of development cooperation and the „development architecture“ Sensitisation to the normative underpinnings of policy work Pitch for more emphasis on norms to lead the development agenda End of „North South“ dichotomy – poverty, unemployment and casualisation of work, social exclusion, climate change, food price inflation, affect people in all countries.
  • Much of the optimism accompanying the MDGs is based on this trend.
  • It is positive that poverty globally has decreased. However the poverty line of $1,25 per person per day is extremely low, a one- dimensional understanding of poverty, and a level so minimal it is a slap in the face of human dignity.
  • Moroever, when looking closely, poverty actually increased in 2 major regions of the world. And: Using a one-dimensional income poverty indicator, $2 per person per day would be a more realistic poverty line. It shows a large absolute number of the world population under the poverty line, who are highly vulernable to economic, political, household and community or national-level level shocks. Also, indicators of income distribution have worsened globally, and even in countries where „dollar a day poverty“ has been decreasing, income disparities between the richest and poorest segments of the population – the Gini index – have widened (see UN-WIDER studies on income distribution).
  • When disaggregating human development or poverty indicators, one sees that the outcomes for socially-excluded groups are worse, across all countries. Exclusion of individuals, groups, communities is based on their self- or externally ascribed identities (Naila Kabeer, 2006) There are different approaches to analysing social exclusion: Unfavourable inclusion, active/passive exclusion (Amartya Sen, 2000) Participatory exclusion (Bina Agarwal) And its impact: Economic inequalities: the socially excluded are “at the receiving end of an unfair distribution of assets and opportunities” Social inequalities: identity-based forms of discrimination and devaluation that treat members of these groups as of lesser status and worth than others Spatial inequalities: socially excluded groups frequently live in places that make them harder to reach or easier to Ignore Political inequalities: they are deprived of voice and influence in the decisions that affect their lives and their communities Naila Kabeer. Can the MDGs provide a pathway to social justice? The challenge of intersecting inequalities. www.ids.ac.uk 4 manifestations of social exclusion: Endowments and ownership of or access to assets Processes generating productive or primary entitlements Social provisioning Full and equal citizenship (UN DESA Report on the World Social Sitution 2010, p. 65 f)
  • Moreover, chronic poverty and social exclusions are exacerbated by the impact of the crises – food and fuel price rises, financial and economic crises, the ensuing fiscal crises which have intensified since 2008. As a result of the 2008 ff crises, hu nger, already massive – with an estimated 900 million to 1 billion people living with daily hunger, has increase; formal sector unemployment is rising: child poverty is worsening. Data sources: International Labour Organization (ILO), World Social Security Report 2010-2011, p. 33. World Bank, The World Bank Group’s Response to the Global Economic Crisis, 2010, p. 11 ILO, Global Employment Trends 2011: The challenge of a jobs recovery, 2011, p. 12. Jessica Espey and Maricar Garde, The global economic crisis: Balancing the books on the backs ofthe world’ s most vulnerable children?, Save the Children, 2010, p.8. Ronald Mendoza, “Inclusive Crises, Exclusive Recoveries, and Policies to Prevent aDouble Whammy for the Poor”, Social and Economic Policy Working Paper, UNICEF Policy andPractice, 2010, p. 18. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), The State of Food Insecurity in theWorld: Economic Crises, Impacts and Lessons Learned, 2009, p. 4. Human Rights Council 2010. Report of the Independent Expert on the question of human rights and extreme poverty, Magdalena Sepúlveda Carmona. A/HRC/17/34. 15 March 2011. www.ohchr.org Unicef 2011 on climate change and children. 13 February 2009 – The spreading global economic crisis is set to trap up to 53 million more people in poverty in developing countries this year on top of the 130-155 million driven into poverty in 2008 by soaring food and fuel prices, bringing the total of those living on less than $2 a day to over 1.5 billion, according to the World Bank.. UN news.
  • Exploitative interaction with extreme political violence and economic oppression. Colonialism can be seen as precursor of the “development” architecture. There were the colonial administrations with the purpose of exploiting and managing the colonies. There was also a large activity of research, investigations, reports and studies, as well as training for the colonial administrators, for example for the British colonial admininistration staff at British universities such as Oxford, which began even before World War I and was maintained through till the late 1940s. (Hevinden, Meredith: Colonialism and Development, New York, 1993). Some of this research was done by academics with a broad range of themes explored – from sociology and gender relations to engineering, crop culture, or irrigation systems. In the late 1940s, the economics profession began analysing underdeveloped economies and speaking of a distinct development economics (see Meier et al). The UN began its development economic related research in the 1950s.
  • As the countries in Africa and Asia became independent, the relationships with the North change fundamentally. The independence movements were concerned with nation building and often introduced economic governance informed by a mixture of Keynesian economics and Soviet planning. It is notable that development aid in an institutionalised fashion, with “aid” offices within ministries of foreign affairs or dedicated development agencies, began almost simultaneously in all industrialised countries - the US, Europe and Japan - around 1960. OECD (Development Assistance Committee (DAC) was created in 1961. It is the organisation of the OECD donors and co-ordinates research and is a venue to discuss donor policies. The DAC also leads the subsequent monitoring and evaluation processes regarding what is now termed aid effectiveness. Furthermore the DAC now reaches out to non-DAC or “emerging donors”. The UN declared a Development Decade in 1960 centred on economic growth and transfers of capital and know how from the developed to the developing countries. There was a Second and Third Development Decade for the 1970s and 1980s.The are also decades on poverty eradication which were an outcome of the World Social Summit - (1 st UN Decade on Poverty Eradication 1997- 2006 and 2 nd UN Decade on Poverty Eradication 2008-17 ( United Nations. General Assembly. Fifty-first session Agenda item 96 f. Resolutions adopted by the General Assembly . First United Nations Decade for the Eradication of Poverty. A/RES/51/178 . 16 Dec 1996). The development decades in some ways have been “replaced” by the more catchy Millennium Declaration and the MDG agenda.
  • Indebtedness of the South after the oil price crises of the 1970s and because their exports were locked into low value-added, price-volatile commodity exports and the import of costly manufactured goods. The trade structure – see the terms of trade debate and structural inequalities raised by Prebish, Singer and UNCTAD - and balance of payment problems and debt crises were a lever for the North to put pressure on the South.
  • The UN convened a series of global conferences and summits throughout the 1990s, many with a focus on social development. The ones on social development, women and children were especially influential for the Millenium Declaration and MDG agenda. Conference subjects: Children (1990) Education for All (1990, 2000) Least Developed Countries (1990, 2001 – Brussels – adopted Brussels Programme of Action, and May 2011 Turkey – with a New International Development Architecture proposed) Drug issues (1990, 1998) Food Security (1992, 1996) Sustainable Development (1992, 2002) Human Rights (1993, 2001) Population and Development (1994) Small Island Developing States (1994, 2005) Natural Disaster Reduction (1994, 2005) Advancement of Women (1995, 2005) Social Development (1995) Human Settlements (1996, 2001) Youth (1998) Millennium Summit (2000, 2005) HIV/AIDS (2001) Financing for Development (2002) Ageing (2002) Landlocked and Transit Developing Countries (2003) Information Society (2003, 2005) World Conference against racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance (2002) Source : http://www.un.org/docs/ecosoc/documents/2005/OcampobriefingFact%20sheet1.pdf
  • Millennium Declaration and its operationalisation in the MDGs: remarkable degree of cohesion on development agenda in terms of objectives to be pursued and targets and even the indicators to measure progress, Used by many developing country governments in their planning statgies, by the IFIs in Poverty Reduction Strategies, and by the OECD DAC donors. Followed by Paris Declaration of Aid Effectiveness 2005 with a series of follow up conferences.
  • Where do we stand in the late 2000s? 2008 can be seen as the beginning of a new phase in the development architecture, characterised by “bipolar” contradictory process and a “post-modern” ideology, also with contradictory positions coexisting. Broadly speaking, 3 sets of countries has emerged: the “developed”, “emerging” – used to be called “tiger economies”, and the “least developed countries” (LDCs). The BRICs – a term coined by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs in 2001 – to refer to a group of economically promising countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and sometimes South Africa which interestingly – through the concept was developed by a consultancy company – decided to meet periodically in this grouping. New development aid players: emerging economies and private foundations New donors operating outside MDG agenda or human rights Special funds skewing priorities, creating silos and inefficiencies Countries such as Korea, Malaysia, China, India, Venezuela, and many others, as well as the recent EU member states in Eastern Europe are becoming ODA donors, but on different terms, with a different set of objectives and values as the OECD DAC members. Divergent trends: an engagement for equity and social inclusion and participation coming from the multilateral system, juxtaposed with problematic developments with emerging donors not in tune with human rights or sustainable development concerns, and some developing countries buying natural resources and land from the poorest countries in an unequal exchange – some say with neocolonial dimensions - in a search for food security and fuel substitutes. See research by the Special Raporteur of the OHCHR on the right to food, or the April 2011 IDS conference on land grabs.
  • The world re-sized by economic power, measured in GDP PPP ...
  • Gabriele Koehler SDL Lecture PowerPoint: Part 1

    1. 1.   Some new trends in development cooperation – nightmares and dreams? Gabriele Köhler Visiting Fellow, Vulnerability and Poverty Reduction Team, IDS, Sussex IDS Sussex Sussex development lecture Brighton, 12 May 2011
    2. 2. Overview: <ul><li>1) Where are we? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>poverty, exclusion, acute crises </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2) Evolution of the development cooperation architecture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>six phases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3) Nightmares and dreams </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>resulting from the „bipolar“ architecture </li></ul></ul><ul><li>4) The case for a bold vision </li></ul><ul><ul><li>rights-based, universalist, transformative </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Where are we? human development &income poverty <ul><li>Human development at aggregate level: </li></ul><ul><li>slow but steady improvement </li></ul>
    4. 4. Where are we? human development &income poverty <ul><li>Absolute number and share of extremely poor people has declined since 1990 globally </li></ul>
    5. 5. Where are we? Income poverty & human development <ul><li>But: number of extremely poor in Africa and South Asia increased </li></ul><ul><ul><li>using $1.25 per personday income poverty measure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Number of poor and vulnerable people : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2.5 billion persons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>using $2 per personday income poverty measure </li></ul></ul>
    6. 6. Where are we? Systemic social exclusions & intersecting inequalities in North and South <ul><li>Economic inequalities </li></ul><ul><li>Social inequalities </li></ul><ul><li>Gender and age inequalities </li></ul><ul><li>Spatial inequalities </li></ul><ul><li>Political inequalities </li></ul>
    7. 7. Where are we? Economic, fiscal, climate crises <ul><li>at least 100 million more people hungry and undernourished </li></ul><ul><li>an estimated 64 million more people in income poverty </li></ul><ul><li>205 million people unemployed </li></ul><ul><li>at least 55,000 more children likely to die each year from 2009 to 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>175 million children affected by climate change </li></ul>
    8. 8. Where are we? Converging North and South <ul><li>MDG outcomes worst among socially excluded groups – in North and South </li></ul><ul><li>Income gap widening </li></ul><ul><li>Human development gap widening within countries </li></ul>
    9. 9. Evolution of development architecture Phase I: Colonial administration (1900s – 1950s) <ul><li>Predominant ideology: </li></ul><ul><li>Spreading „progress“ and „civilisation“ </li></ul><ul><li>Driving forces: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Colonial regimes for economic gain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Colonial regimes for resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Colonial regimes for power </li></ul></ul>
    10. 10. Evolution of development architecture Phase II: Independence movements & „development aid“ (1960-1980) <ul><ul><li>Predominant ideology: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Transfer capital and technology to the capital-deficient South – economistic approach to development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Keynesian economics </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>State led growth </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Driving forces: </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>independence movements in the South </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>post-war recovery, affluence, guilt in the North – </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Re- nascent globalisation </li></ul></ul></ul>
    11. 11. Evolution of development architecture Phase III: structural adjustment (1980s – 1989/1990 and beyond) <ul><ul><li>Predominant ideology: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Overstating role of marktes, downplaying the role of the state, intervening in developing country governments‘ policy space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Driving forces: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic and political strength of the developed countries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interest in „South“ for markets, production – global value chains </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Debt crisis in the South </li></ul></ul>
    12. 12. Evolution of development architecture Phase IV: Cooperation as “partnerships” (1990s – 2000) <ul><ul><li>Predominant ideology: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>End of the „cold war“ : rebalancing of power </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Seeming collapse of state-led development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Series of UN global summits - </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Social development theme </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Driving forces: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>greater economic dependence of the North on the South </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emerging South North trade and investment </li></ul></ul>
    13. 13. Evolution of development architecture Phase V: MDGs; Aid Effectiveness (2000 – 2008) <ul><ul><li>Predominant ideologies: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>push for human development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>focus on social development – different from economistic approaches of the 1960s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>development onus on the South </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>the „bad governance“ discourse </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Driving forces: economic & political polarisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Stalled progress on human development; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Slow economic growth – or jobless growth; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple social exclusions; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Accelerating domestic conflicts; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change and accelerating frequency of disasters </li></ul></ul></ul>
    14. 15. Evolution of development architecture Phase VI: Bipolar development since 2008 <ul><ul><li>Drivers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emerging BRIC(S) donors with export success, outward investment, sovereign funds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>G-20, pushing „G-192“ aside </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New bilateral donors changing the donor landscape </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Private foundations - more grants available </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Predominant ideology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ Pluri-pragmatism” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>One size fits all versus national ownership & policy space </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Growth and human development </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Overemphasis on evidence based policy-making versus analytical and policy debates </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>versus grand design and visions of social justice </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    15. 16. s Countries of the world estimated GDP in purchasing power parity, 2010
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