Predictive Analytics with Excel and SQL Server Data Mining Add-Ins

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An overview of Predictive Analytics with Excel and SQL Server Data Mining Add-Ins.

An overview of Predictive Analytics with Excel and SQL Server Data Mining Add-Ins.

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  • 1. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC q u i c k l y m a k e a p o s i t i v e i m p a c t Excel Predictive Analytics with SQL Server Data Mining Add-Ins Jen Underwood Founder & Principal Consultant Impact Analytix, LLC 813.435.5344 jen@impactanalytix.com www.impactanalytix.com
  • 2. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Impact Analytix, LLC o Impact Analytix, LLC is a boutique business intelligence and predictive analytics firm based in Tampa, Florida. o Jen Underwood, Founder & Principal Consultant • ~20 years of business intelligence industry experience • Former Global Microsoft BI and Analytics Technical Product Manager and seasoned Big-Four Consulting BI Practice Lead • Passionate technology blogger, evangelist and volunteer, TDWI, BeyeNETWORK, PASS, SharePoint Conference, and Microsoft TechEd • Bachelor of Business Administration degree University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Post Graduate Certificate Computer Science - Data Mining University of California, San Diego
  • 3. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Excel Predictive Analytics
  • 4. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Agenda o Overview of Data Mining o SQL Server Data Mining Add-In o Predictive Analytics Development o Integrating and Extending Data Mining
  • 5. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Predictive Analysis Presentation Exploration Discovery Passive Interactive Proactive Role of Software Business Insight Canned Reporting Ad-Hoc Reporting OLAP Data Mining Data Mining enabling Predictive Analysis
  • 6. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC The Value of Predictive Analysis Predictive Analysis Seek Profitable Customers Understand Customer Needs Anticipate Customer Churn Predict Sales & Inventory Funnel Marketing Campaigns Estimate Survey Results Inform Common Business Decisions with Actionable Insight
  • 7. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC SQL Server Predictive Analysis Complete • Pervasive Delivery through Microsoft Office • Comprehensive Development Environment • Enterprise Grade Capabilities • Rich and Innovative Algorithms Integrated • Native Reporting Integration • In-Flight Mining during Data Integration • Insightful Analysis • Predictive KPIs Extensible • Predictive Programming • Custom Algorithms and Visualizations Part of SQL Server Analysis Services
  • 8. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Complete Predictive Analysis Comprehensive • Empower all users with predictive analysis capabilities • Enable advanced users with more validation and control Intuitive • Enable complex data mining through simple, automated tasks • Reduce the learning- curve with a familiar environment • Deliver actionable insight with clear graphical visualizations Collaborative • Share analysis through interactive graphical visualizations • Share insight with clear and prompt publishing capabilities Pervasive Delivery through Microsoft Office
  • 9. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Data Mining Add-Ins “What Microsoft has done is to make data mining available on the desktop to everyone” - David Norris, Associate Analyst, Bloor Research
  • 10. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Automated Tasks in Data Mining for Excel o Analyze Key Influencers - Detects key characteristics that influence an outcome. o Detect Categories - Helps identify and segment data based on common properties. o Fill From Example - Helps complete a partially populated column automatically based on patterns in the table. o Forecast - Enables users to predict future values based on trends in the data set. The forecast values are added to the original table and charts. o Highlight Exceptions - Enables users to detect values outside the expected range. o Scenario Analysis - What If and Goal Seeking, Enables users to gain insight into the impact of a potential changes applied to values of the data set. o Prediction Calculator - Generates an interactive form for scoring new cases. The influence of each attribute is translated into a set of scores. o Shopping Basket Analysis - Enables users to detect the relationship between items frequently purchased together for bundling or improved product placement.
  • 11. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Data Mining Add-In oData Preparation o Explore, clean and set up your data for data mining oData Modeling o Build patterns and trends from data to make predictions oAccuracy and Validation o Test and validate your model oModel Usage & Management o Browse, modify, and manage existing mining models that are stored on an instance of Analysis Services oDocumentation o Trace your actions as Data Mining Extensions (DMX) statements or as Analysis Services Scripting Language (ASSL). Full Development Lifecycle within Excel
  • 12. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Complete Predictive Analysis o Intuitive Data Mining Wizard o Graphic Data Mining Designer o Visual & Statistical Validation o Cross-validation o Lift charts o Profit charts o Easy and Efficient Access to Source Data o Caching o Filtering o Aliasing Comprehensive Development Environment
  • 13. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Complete Predictive Analysis Rapid Development High Availability Superior Performance and Scalability Robust Security Features Enhanced Manageability Enterprise Grade Capabilities Analysis Services
  • 14. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Complete Predictive Analysis Broad Range of Choices to Build Optimal Models Traditional Algorithms such as ARIMAInnovative Algorithms from Microsoft Research Rich and Innovative Algorithms Algorithms to solve common business problems  Market Basket Analysis  Churn Analysis  Market Segment Analysis  Forecasting  Data Exploration  Unsupervised Learning  Web Site Analysis  Campaign Analysis  Information Quality  Text Analysis
  • 15. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Data Mining Algorithms Algorithm Description Decision Trees Calculates the odds of an outcome based on values in a training set Association Rules Helps identify relationships between various elements. Naïve Bayes Clearly shows the differences in a particular variable for various data elements Sequence Clustering Groups or clusters data based on a sequence of previous events Time Series Analyzes and forecasts time-based data combining the power of ARIMA for long-term prediction and the power of ARTXP (developed by Microsoft Research) for short-term prediction. Together optimizing prediction accuracy Neural Nets Seeks to uncover non-intuitive relationships in data Text Mining Analyzes unstructured text data Linear Regression Determines the relationship between columns in order to predict an outcome Logistic Regression Determines the relationship between columns in order to evaluate the probability that a column will contain a specific state
  • 16. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Data Mining Architecture o Data Mining Structures o Define the data columns used for analysis o Data Mining Models o Apply data mining algorithms to data structures
  • 17. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Cross Validation and Algorithm Evaluation
  • 18. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Integrated Predictive Analysis o Create reports that include prediction o Build reports using data mining queries as your data source o Access visual prediction Query Builder directly within Report Designer o Generate parameter-driven reports based on predictive probability o For example, present high-risk customers o Probability to churn is over 65% Native Reporting Integration
  • 19. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Prediction Queries o Data Mining Prediction Queries can be used in database and ASP.NET applications to return “predictions” o After a data mining model is created, trained and tested, developers can create DMX queries or SQL Server Stored Procedures to pass variables or a data set to the data mining model via a prediction join to automate return of predictions PredictionQuerySyntax SELECT<selectexpressionlist> FROM<dataminingmodel>|<subselect>[NATURAL]PREDICTIONJOIN <sourcedataquery>[ON<joinmappinglist>] [WHERE<conditionexpression>]
  • 20. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Prediction Queries
  • 21. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Integrated Predictive Analysis o Enhance ETL: o Flag anomalous data o Classify business entities o Identify missing values o Perform text mining o Extend SQL Server Integration Services: o Score rows with Data Mining Query transformations o Train mining models with Data Mining Training destinations Automate Data Mining During Data Integration
  • 22. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Integrated Predictive Analysis o Use the OLAP cube for data mining o Include data mining results as dimensions in OLAP cubes o Include prediction functions in calculations and KPIs Insightful Analysis
  • 23. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Integrated Predictive Analysis o Combine predictive and retrospective KPIs for more insightful dashboards o Forecast future performance against targets to anticipate potential challenges o Discover and monitor trends in key influencers Predictive KPIs
  • 24. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Extensible Predictive Analysis Automatic Data Mining • Create a built-in recommendation engine • Update models based on most recent data • Warn for flawed data on-the- fly Pattern Exploration • Display leading indicators for factors/metrics • Identify profile for churning/high-value customers Prediction • Recommend relevant products • Anticipate customer risk/churn • Focus promotions on customers with a high expected life-time value Predictive Programming Incorporate predictive analysis into your business applications through comprehensive APIs ?
  • 25. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Extensible Predictive Analysis • Add custom data mining algorithmsPlug-in Algorithms • Redistributable Viewer - embed standard visualizations in your application • Plug-in Viewer APIs - embed custom visualizations in your application Visualizations • Exchange models with other software vendorsPMML • Industry standard metadataXMLA • SQL-like query language Data mining Extensions (DMX) • Access and query models from clients or stored procedures ADOMD.NET and OLE DB • Management interfacesAMO Data Mining APIs
  • 26. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC Recent enhancements 64-Bit Office Data Mining Add-In Enhanced Mining Structures o Split data into training and testing partitions more effectively o Query against structure data to present complete information beyond the scope of the model o Build models over filtered data o Create incompatible models within the same structure o Use cross-validation to: o Test multiple models simultaneously o Confirm the stability of results given more or less data Better Time Series Support o Accuracy & Stability o Combine best of both worlds blending ARTXP for optimized near-term predictions and ARIMA for stable long term predictions o Prediction Flexibility o Build a forecasting model on one series and apply the patterns to data from another series. o What If o Anticipate the impact of changes in near-term future values, on long-term forecasts More Data Mining Add-Ins for Office o New Analysis Tools o Generate interactive forms for scoring new cases with Prediction Calculator o Discover the relationship between items, which are frequently purchased together with Shopping Basket Analysis o New Query and Validation Tools o Choose training and test sets from mining structures o Render richly-formatted cross validation and accuracy reports in Excel o Leverage model documentation for reference and collaboration
  • 27. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC • Native Reporting Integration seamlessly infuses prediction into reports • In-Flight Mining during Data Integration dynamically enhances data quality & relevance • Insightful Analysis enables to slice data by the hidden patterns within • Predictive KPIs extend monitoring with insights to future performance • Predictive Programming embeds prediction within the application • Custom Algorithms & Visualizations provide the flexibility to meet uncommon needs • Pervasive Delivery through Microsoft Office empowers all users with predictive insight • Comprehensive Development Environment delivers an intuitive and rich environment • Enterprise Grade Capabilities provide enhanced server advantages • Rich and Innovative Algorithms support common business problems effectively Summary
  • 28. © 2013 Impact Analytix, LLC www.impactanalytix.com quickly make a positive impact Want to learn this material? Email jen@impactanalytix.com.