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Market OutlookMarket OutlookMarket OutlookMarket Outlook
August 23, 2013August 23, 2013August 23, 2013August 23, 2013
How did Global Indices fare in July 2013?How did Global Indices fare in July 2013?How did Global Indices fare in July 2013...
How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013?How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013?How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013...
Market CapMarket CapMarket CapMarket Cap –––– Performance July 2013Performance July 2013Performance July 2013Performance J...
Key Facets of Equity InvestmentsKey Facets of Equity InvestmentsKey Facets of Equity InvestmentsKey Facets of Equity Inves...
WPI Inflation has decelerated since Oct ‘12, barring July 2013WPI Inflation has decelerated since Oct ‘12, barring July 20...
A Declining Trade Deficit will improve CAD PositionA Declining Trade Deficit will improve CAD PositionA Declining Trade De...
Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?
• Gov...
India Real GDP Growth (India Real GDP Growth (India Real GDP Growth (India Real GDP Growth (YoYYoYYoYYoY%)%)%)%)
• Growth ...
Net FII & DII Flows in the Indian Equity MarketNet FII & DII Flows in the Indian Equity MarketNet FII & DII Flows in the I...
SENSEXSENSEXSENSEXSENSEX ---- 1111----Year Forward P/EYear Forward P/EYear Forward P/EYear Forward P/E
• While Valuations ...
Triggers for the Indian EconomyTriggers for the Indian EconomyTriggers for the Indian EconomyTriggers for the Indian Econo...
Monsoon has been ExcellentMonsoon has been ExcellentMonsoon has been ExcellentMonsoon has been Excellent
• Spatial distrib...
Which Asset Classes will outperform Global EquitiesWhich Asset Classes will outperform Global EquitiesWhich Asset Classes ...
Global Equities: The Magnet for New Money?Global Equities: The Magnet for New Money?Global Equities: The Magnet for New Mo...
Outlook for IndiaOutlook for IndiaOutlook for IndiaOutlook for India
• Good monsoon should support agricultural output and...
Product RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct Recommendations
• Lump sum investments in pro...
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Product Labels for Equity Product Recommendations on Slide 17
19
Product Labels for Equity Product Recommendations on Slide 17
DEBT MARKET OVERVIEWDEBT MARKET OVERVIEWDEBT MARKET OVERVIEWDEBT MARKET OVERVIEW
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Measures to contain volatilityMeasures to contain volatilityMeasures to contain volatilityMeasures to contain volatility
•...
INR Volatility has increase in the last two monthsINR Volatility has increase in the last two monthsINR Volatility has inc...
Impact of RBI’s MeasuresImpact of RBI’s MeasuresImpact of RBI’s MeasuresImpact of RBI’s Measures
• Unprecedented liquidity...
Factors that made RBI measures less effectiveFactors that made RBI measures less effectiveFactors that made RBI measures l...
RBIs focus has shifted to Stabilise Bond MarketsRBIs focus has shifted to Stabilise Bond MarketsRBIs focus has shifted to ...
What could probably help?What could probably help?What could probably help?What could probably help?
• Go beyond short ter...
Market Psychology seems to be an issueMarket Psychology seems to be an issueMarket Psychology seems to be an issueMarket P...
Our ViewOur ViewOur ViewOur View
Key FacetsKey FacetsKey FacetsKey Facets IndicatorIndicatorIndicatorIndicator Last Report...
OutlookOutlookOutlookOutlook
• Average inflation for FY 2013Average inflation for FY 2013Average inflation for FY 2013Aver...
Product RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct Recommendations
• Invest in duration with 24 ...
31
Product Labels for Debt Product Recommendations on Slide 30
DisclaimersDisclaimersDisclaimersDisclaimers
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related ...
Thank YouThank YouThank YouThank You
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ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund Monthly Market Outlook- August 23,2013

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Transcript of "ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund Monthly Market Outlook- August 23,2013"

  1. 1. Market OutlookMarket OutlookMarket OutlookMarket Outlook August 23, 2013August 23, 2013August 23, 2013August 23, 2013
  2. 2. How did Global Indices fare in July 2013?How did Global Indices fare in July 2013?How did Global Indices fare in July 2013?How did Global Indices fare in July 2013? • Most of the global indices ended in green barring a fewMost of the global indices ended in green barring a fewMost of the global indices ended in green barring a fewMost of the global indices ended in green barring a few 5.98 5.93 4.97 3.66 3.5 2.86 2.58 2.13 0.9 -0.07 -0.14 -1.18 -1.33 2 INDICES OF COUNTRIES: India – S&P BSE Sensex; Russia - RTS Index; France - CAC 40 Index; UK - FTSE, Japan - Nikkei; Hongkong - HangSeng, US - Dow Jones, Singapore - Strait Times, Germany - DAX Index, Malaysia - KLSE, Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index, Indonesia - Jakarta Composite, Taiwan - Taiwan Weighted, China - SSE Composite. Source: Bloomberg -1.18 -1.33 -3.5 CAC40Index HangSeng FTSE DAXIndex DowJones RTSIndex StraitTimes IbovespaSaoPaulo Index TaiwanWeighted SSECompositeIndex KLSE S&PBSESensex Nikkei JakartaComposite Index
  3. 3. How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013?How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013?How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013?How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013? • Technology fared better than other sectorsTechnology fared better than other sectorsTechnology fared better than other sectorsTechnology fared better than other sectors 21.18 17.26 3 1.34 0.86 -3.17 -5.1 -10.31 3 Bankex - Banks; CG - Capital Goods; CD - Consumer Durables; IT - Information Technology; HC - Health Care, Teck -Technology, Auto – Automobiles. Source: www.bseindia.com - All indices are S&P BSE and returns are for the month of July. -10.31 -12.14 -12.95 -14.51 -17.2 S&PBSEIT S&PBSETeck S&PBSEFMCG S&PBSEHC S&PBSECD S&PBSEAUTO S&PBSEOil&Gas S&PBSEPowerIndex S&PBSECG S&PBSEMETAL S&PBSEBankex S&PBSERealty
  4. 4. Market CapMarket CapMarket CapMarket Cap –––– Performance July 2013Performance July 2013Performance July 2013Performance July 2013 • During the month BSE mid & small cap underperformedDuring the month BSE mid & small cap underperformedDuring the month BSE mid & small cap underperformedDuring the month BSE mid & small cap underperformed BSE 100 & BSE 500BSE 100 & BSE 500BSE 100 & BSE 500BSE 100 & BSE 500 -2.98 -3.87 4 Source: www.bseindia.com -8.72 -7.69 S&P BSE 100 S&P BSE 500 S&P BSE MID CAP S&P BSE SMALL CAP Month Return – July 2013
  5. 5. Key Facets of Equity InvestmentsKey Facets of Equity InvestmentsKey Facets of Equity InvestmentsKey Facets of Equity Investments • Inflation is within control • Current Account Deficit (CAD) is improving • Fiscal Deficit is deteriorating • Growth is at decade’s low EconomicsEconomicsEconomicsEconomics • Domestic investor sentiments are very low • FIIs have been selling • Hence, we are positive on this indicator SentimentsSentimentsSentimentsSentiments 5 • Barring a few stocks, we believe valuations are attractive ValuationsValuationsValuationsValuations • US Fed Tapering • Crude Prices • Monetary easing by RBI post rupee stabilizing • Political developments TriggersTriggersTriggersTriggers
  6. 6. WPI Inflation has decelerated since Oct ‘12, barring July 2013WPI Inflation has decelerated since Oct ‘12, barring July 2013WPI Inflation has decelerated since Oct ‘12, barring July 2013WPI Inflation has decelerated since Oct ‘12, barring July 2013 • Inflation data accelerated on account ofInflation data accelerated on account ofInflation data accelerated on account ofInflation data accelerated on account of • Higher food pricesHigher food pricesHigher food pricesHigher food prices • Impact of pass through of rupee deprecation as reflected in fuelImpact of pass through of rupee deprecation as reflected in fuelImpact of pass through of rupee deprecation as reflected in fuelImpact of pass through of rupee deprecation as reflected in fuel prices adjustments and core WPI (Wholesale Price Inflation)prices adjustments and core WPI (Wholesale Price Inflation)prices adjustments and core WPI (Wholesale Price Inflation)prices adjustments and core WPI (Wholesale Price Inflation) 6 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research
  7. 7. A Declining Trade Deficit will improve CAD PositionA Declining Trade Deficit will improve CAD PositionA Declining Trade Deficit will improve CAD PositionA Declining Trade Deficit will improve CAD Position • Trade deficit declined by 30%YoY in July versus a gainTrade deficit declined by 30%YoY in July versus a gainTrade deficit declined by 30%YoY in July versus a gainTrade deficit declined by 30%YoY in July versus a gain of 8.9% in June; came in at USD12.3bnof 8.9% in June; came in at USD12.3bnof 8.9% in June; came in at USD12.3bnof 8.9% in June; came in at USD12.3bn • Imports declined in July, led by a decline in oil and goldImports declined in July, led by a decline in oil and goldImports declined in July, led by a decline in oil and goldImports declined in July, led by a decline in oil and gold importsimportsimportsimports • We tend to focus more on negatives than positivesWe tend to focus more on negatives than positivesWe tend to focus more on negatives than positivesWe tend to focus more on negatives than positives 7 Source: RBI, Morgan Stanley
  8. 8. Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?Fiscal Consolidation at Risk? • Government expenditure growth accelerates aboveGovernment expenditure growth accelerates aboveGovernment expenditure growth accelerates aboveGovernment expenditure growth accelerates above budget targetbudget targetbudget targetbudget target • Tax revenue growth continues to lag budget estimatesTax revenue growth continues to lag budget estimatesTax revenue growth continues to lag budget estimatesTax revenue growth continues to lag budget estimates • Risk of rating downgrade will bring fiscal discipline backRisk of rating downgrade will bring fiscal discipline backRisk of rating downgrade will bring fiscal discipline backRisk of rating downgrade will bring fiscal discipline back on trackon trackon trackon track 8 Source: CGA, Morgan Stanley Research
  9. 9. India Real GDP Growth (India Real GDP Growth (India Real GDP Growth (India Real GDP Growth (YoYYoYYoYYoY%)%)%)%) • Growth is very low and far below potentialGrowth is very low and far below potentialGrowth is very low and far below potentialGrowth is very low and far below potential • Is it fair to lose hope on India’s Growth Revival?Is it fair to lose hope on India’s Growth Revival?Is it fair to lose hope on India’s Growth Revival?Is it fair to lose hope on India’s Growth Revival? 9 Source: Bloomberg , Espirito Santo Investment Bank Research GDP: Gross Domestic Product
  10. 10. Net FII & DII Flows in the Indian Equity MarketNet FII & DII Flows in the Indian Equity MarketNet FII & DII Flows in the Indian Equity MarketNet FII & DII Flows in the Indian Equity Market • The month saw selling pressure both from FIIs and DIIsThe month saw selling pressure both from FIIs and DIIsThe month saw selling pressure both from FIIs and DIIsThe month saw selling pressure both from FIIs and DIIs 10 Source: Bloomberg, Espirito Santo Investment Bank Research, FII – Foreign Institutional Investor, DII – Domestic Institutional Investor, US$ m (Million)
  11. 11. SENSEXSENSEXSENSEXSENSEX ---- 1111----Year Forward P/EYear Forward P/EYear Forward P/EYear Forward P/E • While Valuations are at a discount to averages, bothWhile Valuations are at a discount to averages, bothWhile Valuations are at a discount to averages, bothWhile Valuations are at a discount to averages, both SENSEX & Nifty suffer from ‘BiSENSEX & Nifty suffer from ‘BiSENSEX & Nifty suffer from ‘BiSENSEX & Nifty suffer from ‘Bi----polar disorders’polar disorders’polar disorders’polar disorders’ 11 Source: CLSA, P/E – Price to Earnings
  12. 12. Triggers for the Indian EconomyTriggers for the Indian EconomyTriggers for the Indian EconomyTriggers for the Indian Economy • Potential US Fed TaperingPotential US Fed TaperingPotential US Fed TaperingPotential US Fed Tapering • Lower Crude PricesLower Crude PricesLower Crude PricesLower Crude Prices • Improvement in Current Account and Trade deficitImprovement in Current Account and Trade deficitImprovement in Current Account and Trade deficitImprovement in Current Account and Trade deficit • INR stabilizing; measures from RBIINR stabilizing; measures from RBIINR stabilizing; measures from RBIINR stabilizing; measures from RBI 12
  13. 13. Monsoon has been ExcellentMonsoon has been ExcellentMonsoon has been ExcellentMonsoon has been Excellent • Spatial distribution is also much better than last yearSpatial distribution is also much better than last yearSpatial distribution is also much better than last yearSpatial distribution is also much better than last year • Another key positive being ignored completelyAnother key positive being ignored completelyAnother key positive being ignored completelyAnother key positive being ignored completely 13 Source: IMD
  14. 14. Which Asset Classes will outperform Global EquitiesWhich Asset Classes will outperform Global EquitiesWhich Asset Classes will outperform Global EquitiesWhich Asset Classes will outperform Global Equities –––– 2013?2013?2013?2013? • The survey below was carried out in July 2013The survey below was carried out in July 2013The survey below was carried out in July 2013The survey below was carried out in July 2013 14 Disclaimer: The contents of this slide are based on an independent research published by a third party. The AMC / Mutual Fund / Trustees do not assure the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the same. Source: Citi Global Research
  15. 15. Global Equities: The Magnet for New Money?Global Equities: The Magnet for New Money?Global Equities: The Magnet for New Money?Global Equities: The Magnet for New Money? • Results of Client surveys in USResults of Client surveys in USResults of Client surveys in USResults of Client surveys in US • Suggests people have been underSuggests people have been underSuggests people have been underSuggests people have been under----invested in the stockinvested in the stockinvested in the stockinvested in the stock marketmarketmarketmarket • Sitting on too much cashSitting on too much cashSitting on too much cashSitting on too much cash • See the US as the most preferred market to investSee the US as the most preferred market to investSee the US as the most preferred market to investSee the US as the most preferred market to invest • ‘Go Long America’ is gradually becoming a consensus‘Go Long America’ is gradually becoming a consensus‘Go Long America’ is gradually becoming a consensus‘Go Long America’ is gradually becoming a consensus mindsetmindsetmindsetmindsetmindsetmindsetmindsetmindset • Europe has truly turned the corner versus bottoming outEurope has truly turned the corner versus bottoming outEurope has truly turned the corner versus bottoming outEurope has truly turned the corner versus bottoming out 15 Disclaimer: The contents of this slide are based on an independent research published by a third party. The AMC / Mutual Fund / Trustees do not assure the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the same. Source: Citi Global Research
  16. 16. Outlook for IndiaOutlook for IndiaOutlook for IndiaOutlook for India • Good monsoon should support agricultural output andGood monsoon should support agricultural output andGood monsoon should support agricultural output andGood monsoon should support agricultural output and we may see food inflation on a declining trendwe may see food inflation on a declining trendwe may see food inflation on a declining trendwe may see food inflation on a declining trend • CAD is likely to narrow down on declining gold importsCAD is likely to narrow down on declining gold importsCAD is likely to narrow down on declining gold importsCAD is likely to narrow down on declining gold imports • Better agricultural growth and increased governmentBetter agricultural growth and increased governmentBetter agricultural growth and increased governmentBetter agricultural growth and increased government spending along with major economic reforms may helpspending along with major economic reforms may helpspending along with major economic reforms may helpspending along with major economic reforms may help a gradual economic recoverya gradual economic recoverya gradual economic recoverya gradual economic recovery • Markets are likely to remain volatile on account ofMarkets are likely to remain volatile on account ofMarkets are likely to remain volatile on account ofMarkets are likely to remain volatile on account of prepreprepre----election period and global cueselection period and global cueselection period and global cueselection period and global cues 16
  17. 17. Product RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct Recommendations • Lump sum investments in products that seek to benefit out ofLump sum investments in products that seek to benefit out ofLump sum investments in products that seek to benefit out ofLump sum investments in products that seek to benefit out of VolatilityVolatilityVolatilityVolatility ---- • ICICI Prudential EquityICICI Prudential EquityICICI Prudential EquityICICI Prudential Equity –––– Volatility Advantage FundVolatility Advantage FundVolatility Advantage FundVolatility Advantage Fund • ICICI Prudential Dynamic PlanICICI Prudential Dynamic PlanICICI Prudential Dynamic PlanICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan • ICICI Prudential Balanced FundICICI Prudential Balanced FundICICI Prudential Balanced FundICICI Prudential Balanced Fund • Investments through STP / SIP over next 12 months in our coreInvestments through STP / SIP over next 12 months in our coreInvestments through STP / SIP over next 12 months in our coreInvestments through STP / SIP over next 12 months in our core equity productsequity productsequity productsequity products ----equity productsequity productsequity productsequity products ---- • ICICI Prudential Discovery FundICICI Prudential Discovery FundICICI Prudential Discovery FundICICI Prudential Discovery Fund • ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity FundICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity FundICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity FundICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund • ICICI Prudential Top 100 FundICICI Prudential Top 100 FundICICI Prudential Top 100 FundICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund • SIP / STP in ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund & ICICISIP / STP in ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund & ICICISIP / STP in ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund & ICICISIP / STP in ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund & ICICI Prudential Infrastructure FundPrudential Infrastructure FundPrudential Infrastructure FundPrudential Infrastructure Fund 17 None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and Investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing.
  18. 18. 18 Product Labels for Equity Product Recommendations on Slide 17
  19. 19. 19 Product Labels for Equity Product Recommendations on Slide 17
  20. 20. DEBT MARKET OVERVIEWDEBT MARKET OVERVIEWDEBT MARKET OVERVIEWDEBT MARKET OVERVIEW 20
  21. 21. Measures to contain volatilityMeasures to contain volatilityMeasures to contain volatilityMeasures to contain volatility • The RBI & the government have taken many steps to tryThe RBI & the government have taken many steps to tryThe RBI & the government have taken many steps to tryThe RBI & the government have taken many steps to try and contain INR volatilityand contain INR volatilityand contain INR volatilityand contain INR volatility • These measures have not yet yielded desiredThese measures have not yet yielded desiredThese measures have not yet yielded desiredThese measures have not yet yielded desired resultsresultsresultsresults 21 Source: RBI, MOSL
  22. 22. INR Volatility has increase in the last two monthsINR Volatility has increase in the last two monthsINR Volatility has increase in the last two monthsINR Volatility has increase in the last two months 22 Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
  23. 23. Impact of RBI’s MeasuresImpact of RBI’s MeasuresImpact of RBI’s MeasuresImpact of RBI’s Measures • Unprecedented liquidity tightnessUnprecedented liquidity tightnessUnprecedented liquidity tightnessUnprecedented liquidity tightness • Short term rates have shot upShort term rates have shot upShort term rates have shot upShort term rates have shot up • Even rates at long end of yield curve had spikedEven rates at long end of yield curve had spikedEven rates at long end of yield curve had spikedEven rates at long end of yield curve had spiked • Banks have already started raising their base ratesBanks have already started raising their base ratesBanks have already started raising their base ratesBanks have already started raising their base rates InstrumentInstrumentInstrumentInstrument 11 July 201311 July 201311 July 201311 July 2013 21 August 201321 August 201321 August 201321 August 2013 23 Source: Crisil InstrumentInstrumentInstrumentInstrument 11 July 201311 July 201311 July 201311 July 2013 21 August 201321 August 201321 August 201321 August 2013 3 Month T-Bill 7.46% 10.98% 1 Year T-Bill 7.44% 9.94% 10 Year GOI 7.47% 8.41%
  24. 24. Factors that made RBI measures less effectiveFactors that made RBI measures less effectiveFactors that made RBI measures less effectiveFactors that made RBI measures less effective • Since JunSince JunSince JunSince Jun----13, FIIs have started withdrawing from the13, FIIs have started withdrawing from the13, FIIs have started withdrawing from the13, FIIs have started withdrawing from the Indian debt marketsIndian debt marketsIndian debt marketsIndian debt markets • This trend has continued, though it has moderatedThis trend has continued, though it has moderatedThis trend has continued, though it has moderatedThis trend has continued, though it has moderated • As a result of the US macro surprising on the upside,As a result of the US macro surprising on the upside,As a result of the US macro surprising on the upside,As a result of the US macro surprising on the upside, USD has strengthened across the board weakening theUSD has strengthened across the board weakening theUSD has strengthened across the board weakening theUSD has strengthened across the board weakening theUSD has strengthened across the board weakening theUSD has strengthened across the board weakening theUSD has strengthened across the board weakening theUSD has strengthened across the board weakening the INRINRINRINR • Sell off across Emerging Market CurrenciesSell off across Emerging Market CurrenciesSell off across Emerging Market CurrenciesSell off across Emerging Market Currencies • Hence, this problem is not restricted to the INRHence, this problem is not restricted to the INRHence, this problem is not restricted to the INRHence, this problem is not restricted to the INR 24
  25. 25. RBIs focus has shifted to Stabilise Bond MarketsRBIs focus has shifted to Stabilise Bond MarketsRBIs focus has shifted to Stabilise Bond MarketsRBIs focus has shifted to Stabilise Bond Markets • Open Market Purchases of long dated GOpen Market Purchases of long dated GOpen Market Purchases of long dated GOpen Market Purchases of long dated G----secssecssecssecs worthworthworthworth ```` 8000 Cr on8000 Cr on8000 Cr on8000 Cr on Aug 23Aug 23Aug 23Aug 23 • SLR holding at 24.5% of Bank’s Net Demand and Time LiabilitiesSLR holding at 24.5% of Bank’s Net Demand and Time LiabilitiesSLR holding at 24.5% of Bank’s Net Demand and Time LiabilitiesSLR holding at 24.5% of Bank’s Net Demand and Time Liabilities (NDTL) in held to maturity (HTM) category (vs. earlier requirement of(NDTL) in held to maturity (HTM) category (vs. earlier requirement of(NDTL) in held to maturity (HTM) category (vs. earlier requirement of(NDTL) in held to maturity (HTM) category (vs. earlier requirement of 23% over time)23% over time)23% over time)23% over time) Transfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available forTransfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available forTransfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available forTransfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available for• Transfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available forTransfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available forTransfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available forTransfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available for sale (AFS)/held for trading (HFT) categories up to the limit of 24.5%sale (AFS)/held for trading (HFT) categories up to the limit of 24.5%sale (AFS)/held for trading (HFT) categories up to the limit of 24.5%sale (AFS)/held for trading (HFT) categories up to the limit of 24.5% as a oneas a oneas a oneas a one----time measure at prices as of July 15, the date of the firsttime measure at prices as of July 15, the date of the firsttime measure at prices as of July 15, the date of the firsttime measure at prices as of July 15, the date of the first RBI actionRBI actionRBI actionRBI action • Can spread net depreciation, if any, on account of markCan spread net depreciation, if any, on account of markCan spread net depreciation, if any, on account of markCan spread net depreciation, if any, on account of mark----totototo----marketmarketmarketmarket (MTM) valuation of securities held under the AFS/HFT categories(MTM) valuation of securities held under the AFS/HFT categories(MTM) valuation of securities held under the AFS/HFT categories(MTM) valuation of securities held under the AFS/HFT categories over the remaining period of the current FY in equal instalmentsover the remaining period of the current FY in equal instalmentsover the remaining period of the current FY in equal instalmentsover the remaining period of the current FY in equal instalments 25
  26. 26. What could probably help?What could probably help?What could probably help?What could probably help? • Go beyond short term measuresGo beyond short term measuresGo beyond short term measuresGo beyond short term measures • Attract large capital flows in the country to ameliorate theAttract large capital flows in the country to ameliorate theAttract large capital flows in the country to ameliorate theAttract large capital flows in the country to ameliorate the current INR weaknesscurrent INR weaknesscurrent INR weaknesscurrent INR weakness • More direct measures to stem capital flow and reduceMore direct measures to stem capital flow and reduceMore direct measures to stem capital flow and reduceMore direct measures to stem capital flow and reduce current account deficitcurrent account deficitcurrent account deficitcurrent account deficit Money flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economy• Money flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economy • Further slowdown in the economy must be arrestedFurther slowdown in the economy must be arrestedFurther slowdown in the economy must be arrestedFurther slowdown in the economy must be arrested • Focus on growth by reducing interest rates once INRFocus on growth by reducing interest rates once INRFocus on growth by reducing interest rates once INRFocus on growth by reducing interest rates once INR stabilizesstabilizesstabilizesstabilizes 26
  27. 27. Market Psychology seems to be an issueMarket Psychology seems to be an issueMarket Psychology seems to be an issueMarket Psychology seems to be an issue • Current situation unlike previous onesCurrent situation unlike previous onesCurrent situation unlike previous onesCurrent situation unlike previous ones • Past 2Past 2Past 2Past 2----Month trade deficit have fallen to US$12Month trade deficit have fallen to US$12Month trade deficit have fallen to US$12Month trade deficit have fallen to US$12 bnbnbnbn perperperper month vs. FY13 average of US$16month vs. FY13 average of US$16month vs. FY13 average of US$16month vs. FY13 average of US$16 bnbnbnbn per month and peakper month and peakper month and peakper month and peak level of US$21level of US$21level of US$21level of US$21 bnbnbnbn • India’s high ‘invisibles’ (services exports, mainly) meanIndia’s high ‘invisibles’ (services exports, mainly) meanIndia’s high ‘invisibles’ (services exports, mainly) meanIndia’s high ‘invisibles’ (services exports, mainly) mean CAD decline is even sharperCAD decline is even sharperCAD decline is even sharperCAD decline is even sharper • CAD of US$35CAD of US$35CAD of US$35CAD of US$35 bnbnbnbn is possible if IT services exports rise 7%is possible if IT services exports rise 7%is possible if IT services exports rise 7%is possible if IT services exports rise 7%• CAD of US$35CAD of US$35CAD of US$35CAD of US$35 bnbnbnbn is possible if IT services exports rise 7%is possible if IT services exports rise 7%is possible if IT services exports rise 7%is possible if IT services exports rise 7% YoYYoYYoYYoY keeping all other things unchangedkeeping all other things unchangedkeeping all other things unchangedkeeping all other things unchanged • AT <2% of GDP, this is acceptable and fundable with justAT <2% of GDP, this is acceptable and fundable with justAT <2% of GDP, this is acceptable and fundable with justAT <2% of GDP, this is acceptable and fundable with just FDI and NRI deposits (Please see table on next slide)FDI and NRI deposits (Please see table on next slide)FDI and NRI deposits (Please see table on next slide)FDI and NRI deposits (Please see table on next slide) • Fiscal & Monetary Policy must counter loss ofFiscal & Monetary Policy must counter loss ofFiscal & Monetary Policy must counter loss ofFiscal & Monetary Policy must counter loss of confidence in the INR proactivelyconfidence in the INR proactivelyconfidence in the INR proactivelyconfidence in the INR proactively 27 Data Source: CMIE, Min. of Commerce, Credit Suisse
  28. 28. Our ViewOur ViewOur ViewOur View Key FacetsKey FacetsKey FacetsKey Facets IndicatorIndicatorIndicatorIndicator Last ReportedLast ReportedLast ReportedLast Reported Score 1Score 1Score 1Score 1----5555 (Bad(Bad(Bad(Bad ---- Good)Good)Good)Good) EconomicsEconomicsEconomicsEconomics CAD / Trade Deficit 12.27 US$ bn. 4 Fiscal 48% of budgeted estimates 3 Inflation Exp sub 5% in medium term 4 Growth Exp sub 5.5% in medium term 4 Liquidity 38718 Cr 1 3m Bill 11.08% 5 1yr Bill 10.09% 5 2yr GOI 9.23% 5 28 Disclaimer: Scores provided above are based on fund managers views and analysis. Although, these scores are arrived at after necessary analysis, there is no guarantee/ assurance that the analysis is correct or accurate and the indicators would be beneficial for any security/sector or economy. These are purely for reference. Source: RBI ValuationValuationValuationValuation 2yr GOI 9.23% 5 6-8yr GOI 8.65% 5 10yr GOI 8.25% 5 12-13yr GOI 8.65% 5 15-19 yr GOI 8.70% 5 SentimentsSentimentsSentimentsSentiments PSU participation Very Low against average 5 Market Volumes Very Low against average 5 Market Flows Very Low against average 5 TriggersTriggersTriggersTriggers INR stops depreciating, Crude Oil Prices, US Fed tapering of QE3, GOI Economic reforms, RBI’s announcement on bank HTM,
  29. 29. OutlookOutlookOutlookOutlook • Average inflation for FY 2013Average inflation for FY 2013Average inflation for FY 2013Average inflation for FY 2013----14 expected to be around14 expected to be around14 expected to be around14 expected to be around 5%5%5%5% • Lack of investment pick up and moderating demandLack of investment pick up and moderating demandLack of investment pick up and moderating demandLack of investment pick up and moderating demand side pressures could result in an average GDP growthside pressures could result in an average GDP growthside pressures could result in an average GDP growthside pressures could result in an average GDP growth range of 5range of 5range of 5range of 5----5.5% for FY5.5% for FY5.5% for FY5.5% for FY----2014201420142014 • Potential Risk of Rating downgrade may makePotential Risk of Rating downgrade may makePotential Risk of Rating downgrade may makePotential Risk of Rating downgrade may make government focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal discipline • Growth remains below potential and RBI may adoptGrowth remains below potential and RBI may adoptGrowth remains below potential and RBI may adoptGrowth remains below potential and RBI may adopt growth supportive monetary policygrowth supportive monetary policygrowth supportive monetary policygrowth supportive monetary policy • Prolonged period of rate cuts (2Prolonged period of rate cuts (2Prolonged period of rate cuts (2Prolonged period of rate cuts (2----3 years) once Rupee3 years) once Rupee3 years) once Rupee3 years) once Rupee stabilizesstabilizesstabilizesstabilizes 29
  30. 30. Product RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct Recommendations • Invest in duration with 24 months and above horizonInvest in duration with 24 months and above horizonInvest in duration with 24 months and above horizonInvest in duration with 24 months and above horizon • ICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt FundICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt FundICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt FundICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt Fund • ICICI Prudential Income PlanICICI Prudential Income PlanICICI Prudential Income PlanICICI Prudential Income Plan • Actively managed opportunistic Fund with Total ReturnActively managed opportunistic Fund with Total ReturnActively managed opportunistic Fund with Total ReturnActively managed opportunistic Fund with Total Return biasbiasbiasbiasbiasbiasbiasbias • ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond FundICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond FundICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond FundICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund • Accrual strategyAccrual strategyAccrual strategyAccrual strategy • ICICI Prudential Regular Savings FundICICI Prudential Regular Savings FundICICI Prudential Regular Savings FundICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund 30 None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the Investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing.
  31. 31. 31 Product Labels for Debt Product Recommendations on Slide 30
  32. 32. DisclaimersDisclaimersDisclaimersDisclaimers Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. All figures and other data given in this document are as on 31st July 2013 unless stated otherwise. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Data source: Bloomberg, except as mentioned specifically. Disclaimer:Disclaimer:Disclaimer:Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have beeninformation that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. 32
  33. 33. Thank YouThank YouThank YouThank You 33
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