Debra C. von Koch Government Debt Issuance & Management Program

International Financial Crisis & Global Economic Recession Strategies and Tactics For Emerging Market Countries

OTA MISSION Strengthen public financial management and financial institutions in developing and transition countries

Strengthen public financial management

and financial institutions

in developing and transition countries

Real Economy Impact of crisis reaching EM countries at varying speeds, with differing results Economic growth contracting more than forecast Demand for goods/services Remittances FDI Commodity prices & exports Tourism receipts

Impact of crisis reaching EM countries at varying speeds, with differing results

Economic growth contracting more than forecast

Demand for goods/services

Remittances

FDI

Commodity prices & exports

Tourism receipts

Government Finances Cash Flow Problems Revenues Countercyclical/social spending Interest rates on government debt = Fiscal Gaps IFI Credit Prior Reform Efforts

Cash Flow Problems

Revenues

Countercyclical/social spending

Interest rates on government debt

= Fiscal Gaps

IFI Credit

Prior Reform Efforts

Financial Markets Reduced Hard Currency Inflows Depreciating Local Currencies Declining Official Reserves

Reduced Hard Currency Inflows

Depreciating Local Currencies

Declining Official Reserves

Financial Markets -2 Low Demand for New Debt High Concentrations Foreign-Currency Denominated Debt/High FX Risk Short Maturity Profile/High Rollover Risk

Low Demand for New Debt

High Concentrations Foreign-Currency

Denominated Debt/High FX Risk

Short Maturity Profile/High Rollover Risk

Response to Challenges Accelerate Domestic Debt Market Development to Support: Fiscal stability Monetary policy transmission Broader capital market development

Accelerate Domestic Debt Market Development to Support:

Fiscal stability

Monetary policy transmission

Broader capital market development

Response to Challenges -2 Update Debt Strategies Debt Restructurings Improve Cash Forecasting/Management Improve Risk Analysis/Management

Update Debt Strategies

Debt Restructurings

Improve Cash Forecasting/Management

Improve Risk Analysis/Management

Response to Challenges -3 Implement Reforms to Attract Domestic Savings Enhance Transparency and Market Communication Investors Coordination fiscal and monetary policies

Implement Reforms to Attract Domestic Savings

Enhance Transparency and Market Communication

Investors

Coordination fiscal and monetary policies

Thank you! Debra C. von Koch Associate Director U.S. Treasury International Affairs Office of Technical Assistance Government Debt Issuance & Management Program Email: [email_address] Website: www.treasuryota.us

Thank you!

Debra C. von Koch

Associate Director

U.S. Treasury International Affairs

Office of Technical Assistance

Government Debt Issuance & Management Program

Email: [email_address]

Website: www.treasuryota.us